恒生科技指数跌幅扩大至1%，蔚来汽车(09866.HK)、京东(09618.HK)领跌成分股。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group [4][11] Core Views - JD Group's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3010.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and adjusted net profit of 127.6 billion yuan, up 43.4% year-on-year [8] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 12832/13637/14266 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in product revenue growth [3][11] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 433/489/518 billion yuan, with a decrease due to increased investment in the food delivery business [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown: - Product revenue reached 2423.1 billion yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year - Service revenue was 587.7 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year [8] - JD Retail's Q1 2025 revenue was 2638.5 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 4.87% [8] - JD Logistics reported Q1 2025 revenue of 469.7 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 0.31% [8] - New business revenue in Q1 2025 was 57.5 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 13.3 billion yuan due to increased investment [8] Shareholder Returns - In Q1 2025, JD Group repurchased approximately 80.7 million shares for about 1.5 billion USD, representing 2.8% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024 [8]

Core Insights - JD Group reported Q1 2025 revenue of 301.1 billion yuan, a 15.8% year-on-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 reached 12.8 billion yuan, up 43.8% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 4.2%, improving by 0.8 percentage points [1] Revenue Breakdown - JD Retail achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 263.8 billion yuan, a 16.3% increase year-on-year, with operating profit of 12.8 billion yuan, up 37.8% [2] - Electronics and home appliances revenue was 144.3 billion yuan, growing 17.1% year-on-year, driven by the "old-for-new" policy [2] - Daily necessities revenue reached 98.0 billion yuan, a 14.9% increase, with new luxury brand partnerships enhancing product offerings [2] User Engagement - Active customer numbers grew by double digits year-on-year, with increased shopping frequency and higher JD Plus membership engagement [2] - NPS (Net Promoter Score) improved year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, indicating stronger customer satisfaction [2] Logistics Expansion - JD Logistics reported Q1 2025 revenue of 46.9 billion yuan, an 11.5% increase, although operating profit decreased by 35.3% [3] - New international routes and warehouse operations in Europe enhance logistics capabilities [3] New Business Ventures - JD launched its food delivery service in February 2025, rapidly expanding to 126 cities with over 300,000 restaurant partnerships [3] - The food delivery service is expected to leverage synergies with existing business operations [3] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased approximately 8.07 million A shares in Q1 2025, totaling about 1.5 billion USD, representing 2.8% of shares outstanding as of December 31, 2024 [4] - Cash dividends for the 2024 fiscal year were distributed as planned in April 2025 [4] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1,295.1 billion, 1,392.6 billion, and 1,478.1 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 11.8%, 10.0%, and 5.6% respectively [5] - Long-term outlook remains positive due to supply chain and logistics capabilities, with a "buy" rating maintained [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" with a target price set at 131.8 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [7]. Core Insights - JD Group reported a revenue of 301.1 billion CNY for Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations with a year-on-year growth of 15.8%. Product revenue was 242.3 billion CNY, up 16.2%, while service revenue reached 58.8 billion CNY, growing by 14.0% [1]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,295.1 billion CNY, 1,392.6 billion CNY, and 1,478.1 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a growth of 11.8%, 10.0%, and 5.6% year-on-year [6]. - JD's logistics segment saw a revenue of 46.9 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, although operating profit decreased by 35.3% [3]. - The launch of JD's food delivery service in February 2025 has rapidly expanded, covering 126 cities and achieving nearly 20 million orders [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, JD Group's Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 12.8 billion CNY, marking a 43.8% increase year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 4.2% [1]. - The retail segment achieved a revenue of 263.8 billion CNY, a 16.3% increase, with operating profit of 12.8 billion CNY, up 37.8% [2]. Business Expansion - JD's logistics has expanded internationally, opening new routes and warehouses to enhance supply chain services for both Chinese and European businesses [3]. - The company is actively pursuing a 200 billion CNY plan to convert exports to domestic sales, aiming to create a new supply of affordable goods [2]. Shareholder Returns - JD Group has initiated a share repurchase program with a maximum of 5 billion USD, having repurchased approximately 8.07 million A shares in Q1 2025, totaling around 1.5 billion USD [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" with a target price set at 131.8 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [7]. Core Insights - JD Group reported a revenue of 301.1 billion CNY in Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations with a year-on-year growth of 15.8%. Product revenue was 242.3 billion CNY, up 16.2%, while service revenue reached 58.8 billion CNY, growing by 14.0% [1]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,295.1 billion CNY, 1,392.6 billion CNY, and 1,478.1 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a growth of 11.8%, 10.0%, and 5.6% year-on-year [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was 12.8 billion CNY, marking a significant increase of 43.8% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [1]. Summary by Sections JD Retail - JD Retail achieved a revenue of 263.8 billion CNY in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, with operating profit reaching 12.8 billion CNY, up 37.8% [2]. - The electronics and home appliances category generated 144.3 billion CNY, growing 17.1% due to the "trade-in" policy [2]. - The daily necessities category saw revenue of 98.0 billion CNY, increasing by 14.9% [2]. JD Logistics - JD Logistics reported revenue of 46.9 billion CNY in Q1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, although operating profit decreased by 35.3% to 1.45 billion CNY [3]. - The company has expanded its international logistics capabilities, including new routes and warehouses in Thailand and Poland [3]. JD Delivery - JD launched its food delivery service in February 2025, quickly expanding to cover 126 cities and achieving nearly 20 million orders [4]. Shareholder Returns - JD Group has initiated a share buyback program of up to 5 billion USD, with approximately 80.7 million shares repurchased in Q1 2025, totaling around 1.5 billion USD [5].

Revenue Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 301.1 billion yuan in the quarter, a year-on-year increase of 16% [1] - JD Retail revenue was 263.8 billion yuan, also up 16% year-on-year, with self-operated business revenue growing by 16% [1] - The mobile phone category benefited from subsidies, leading to a 17% year-on-year increase, while daily necessities grew by 15% [1] - The number of purchasing users increased for six consecutive quarters, with a growth rate accelerating to over 20% in the first quarter, becoming a key factor for revenue growth [1] - JD Logistics revenue reached 47 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, and new business revenue was 5.8 billion yuan, growing 18% year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of the Jingxi business [1] Profitability Analysis - The company's non-GAAP net profit was 12.8 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 4.2% [2] - Retail business operating profit margin (OPM) was 4.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to improved gross margins [2] - Logistics business OPM was 0.3%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased short-term investments in logistics infrastructure and personnel [2] - New business OPM was -23%, a year-on-year decline of 4 percentage points, primarily due to increased losses from the Jingxi business [2] AI Integration and Shareholder Returns - The company is widely applying AI technology across retail and supply chain operations, optimizing various processes such as search recommendations and advertising algorithms [3] - Since 2025, the company has repurchased approximately 8.07 million shares, totaling about 1.5 billion USD, representing 2.8% of the circulating shares as of December 31, 2024 [3] Investment Outlook - The retail business continues to grow due to subsidies and improved operational efficiency, enhancing gross margins [3] - However, increased investment in the food delivery business is expected to impact profitability, leading to adjustments in revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1,307.5 billion, 1,400.4 billion, and 1,486.9 billion yuan, with net profit estimates revised to 45.2 billion, 52.1 billion, and 57 billion yuan respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 performance, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations in revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by user experience focus, content ecosystem development, and government subsidy policies [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 16% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 13% [1]. - Gross profit was 47.8 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year and down 10% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - Operating profit stood at 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 37% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase [1]. - Net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, a 53% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached 12.8 billion yuan, up 43% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter [1]. User Engagement and Growth - The platform achieved double-digit year-over-year growth in active users for six consecutive quarters, with growth exceeding 20% [2]. - The number of third-party merchant transaction users also saw double-digit year-over-year growth [2]. Retail Performance - JD Retail revenue grew 16% year-over-year to 263.8 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin increase of 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [3]. - Revenue from 1P electronic products increased by 17% to 144.3 billion yuan, while 1P daily necessities revenue grew by 15% to 98 billion yuan [3]. - The growth was supported by a stable recovery in consumer spending and effective marketing collaborations with brands like Xiaomi [3]. Logistics Performance - JD Logistics revenue reached 47 billion yuan, an 11% year-over-year increase but a 10% quarter-over-quarter decrease [4]. - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers was 23.2 billion yuan, up 13.2% year-over-year, with the number of external integrated supply chain customers reaching 63,000, a 13.1% increase [4]. New Business Initiatives - New business revenue, including food delivery, amounted to 5.8 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan [4]. - The management emphasized focusing on user and merchant experience, business scale, and ROI for the food delivery service [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upward to 1,286.6 billion yuan, 1,371.3 billion yuan, and 1,449.6 billion yuan respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts have been adjusted downward to 34 billion yuan, 45.4 billion yuan, and 52.6 billion yuan for the same period [4]. - The target market capitalization for JD Group is set at 592.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 186 yuan per share [4].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes JD Group (09618) is an undervalued differentiated company in the Chinese internet sector, maintaining a buy rating and a target price of HKD 194, as the company is expected to benefit from domestic consumption policies, category expansion, and ongoing shareholder returns, which will further drive valuation multiples expansion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - JD's retail revenue growth accelerated beyond expectations, with management raising the full-year growth target to double digits, leading to a slight positive stock reaction (ADR +3%) [2] - JD's adjusted EBIT for retail grew by 38% year-on-year, surpassing both Goldman Sachs' forecast of 28% and the market's expectation of 16%, driven by the unique self-operated business model and strong profitability from the third-party platform [3] Group 2: Business Expansion - The company's entry into the food delivery business is recognized as a future driver of new user traffic, with daily order volume rapidly increasing to nearly 20 million [4] - The strong retail profits and logistics growth, along with the ability to reallocate a marketing budget of RMB 50 billion annually, will support the food delivery business, which is expected to enhance customer retention and acquisition [5] Group 3: Valuation and Market Position - JD's current stock price corresponds to a retail P/E ratio of 8 times and a group P/E ratio of 10 times, which is considered attractive compared to the e-commerce sector (10-14 times) and the average of internet peers (17 times) [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 173 / USD 44, reflecting a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HKD 141.6 / USD 35.73 [3][5][25]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 301.1 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8%, which is better than market expectations, with further acceleration in growth anticipated for Q2 [1]. - The strong growth in revenue is driven by the government's subsidy policies, particularly benefiting the electronics category, which saw a 17.1% year-on-year increase [1]. - The food delivery business is undergoing dynamic adjustments, introducing uncertainty to profit margins, with a gross margin of 15.9% in Q1, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 increased by 43% to RMB 12.8 billion, exceeding market expectations, with an adjusted net profit margin of 4.2% [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - Q1 2025 revenue was RMB 301.1 billion, up 15.8% year-on-year, with product revenue growing 16.2% and service revenue increasing by 14% [1]. - The core categories, particularly electronics, benefited from the government's trade-in policies, leading to a robust growth outlook for Q2 [1]. Profitability - The company reported a gross margin of 15.9% in Q1, an improvement of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with adjusted net profit rising to RMB 12.8 billion [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 4.2%, primarily due to enhanced retail operating profit margins [2]. Business Strategy - The food delivery segment is expanding rapidly, with over one million merchants and nearly 20 million daily orders, although the impact on overall revenue remains limited [2]. - The company is increasing investments in the food delivery sector to enhance user engagement and purchase frequency, but this may introduce uncertainties regarding profit margin improvements [2]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenue growth for FY25E at RMB 1,279.2 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 48.4 billion [4]. - The adjusted net profit growth rate is projected to be 5.3% lower than previously estimated due to the anticipated impact of food delivery investments on profitability [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][21]. Core Views - The company's retail business continues to benefit from national subsidies, leading to sustained revenue growth. However, increased investment in the food delivery business is expected to impact profitability [3][21]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,307.5 billion, 1,400.4 billion, and 1,486.9 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 3%, 2%, and 1% respectively. Adjusted net profits for the same period are projected to be 452 billion, 521 billion, and 570 billion yuan, with adjustments of -13%, -8%, and -9% respectively [3][21]. Revenue Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 3,011 billion yuan in the latest quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%. The retail segment contributed 2,638 billion yuan, also up 16% year-on-year. The self-operated business saw a 16% increase, with the electronics category benefiting from subsidies, growing by 17% [10][11]. - The logistics segment generated 470 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, while new business revenue reached 58 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, driven primarily by the rapid growth of the Jingxi business [10][11]. Profit Summary - The company's non-GAAP net profit was 12.8 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 4.2%. The operating profit margin (OPM) for the retail business was 4.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to improved gross margins [2][11]. - The logistics business had an OPM of 0.3%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased short-term investments in logistics infrastructure and personnel. The new business segment reported an OPM of -23%, reflecting an increase in losses due to higher order volumes [2][11]. AI Application and Shareholder Returns - The company is actively applying AI technology across various retail and supply chain scenarios, including optimizing search recommendation systems and enhancing operational efficiency through automation [3][12]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the company has repurchased approximately 80.7 million shares for a total of about 1.5 billion USD, representing 2.8% of the circulating shares as of December 31, 2024 [3][12].