公司点评报告 ·传媒互联网行业 利能力不断改善,社区生态持续繁荣 2024Q4 业绩点评 2025 年 2 月 20 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 26,832 | 31,340 | 33,800 | 35,873 | | 收入增长率 | 19.1% | 16.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | | Non-GAAP 归母净利润(百万元) | -39 | 1.274 | 3.564 | 5.468 | | 毛利率 | 32.7% | 39.1% | 41.4% | 43.9% | | P/S | 2.24 | 1.92 | 1.78 | 1.68 | | Non-GAAP P/E | | 47.21 | 16.87 | 11.00 | 资料来源:公司公告,中国银河证券研究院 | | | | | | 分析师 岳铮 ☎：010-8092-7630 @: yuezheng_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S01305220 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of $26.40 per ADS, up from the previous target of $22.00 [1][5][27]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 77.3 billion for Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 4.53 billion, surpassing expectations by 15% [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by strong performance in mobile gaming and advertising sectors, with mobile game revenue increasing by 79% year-on-year [2][3]. - The management has reiterated its long-term operating profit margin target of 15-20%, which is expected to boost investor confidence [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY24, total revenue is projected to grow by 19% to RMB 268 billion, with an adjusted net loss reduced by 99% to RMB 2.21 billion [1][4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 total revenue to increase by 22% year-on-year, with mobile gaming, advertising, and value-added services (VAS) revenues expected to grow by 73%, 19%, and 10% respectively [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - VAS revenue grew by 8% to RMB 30.8 billion, accounting for 40% of total revenue in Q4 2024, driven by increased premium membership and fan payment revenues [2]. - Advertising revenue increased by 24% to RMB 23.9 billion, representing 31% of total revenue, attributed to strong growth in performance advertising [2]. - Mobile gaming revenue surged by 79% to RMB 18 billion, making up 23% of total revenue, mainly due to new contributions [2]. Profitability Metrics - Gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 10 percentage points to 36.1% in Q4 2024, while adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) rose by 17 percentage points to 6.0% [3]. - For Q1 2025, adjusted OPM is expected to grow by 12 percentage points to 3.3% despite content investments for the Spring Festival Gala [3]. Valuation and Estimates - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, estimating the advertising business at $1.05 billion, VAS at $800 million, and mobile gaming at $800 million, with a total valuation of approximately $8.06 billion [16][17]. - The projected revenue for FY25 is RMB 30.42 billion, with a gross profit margin of 37.3% and an adjusted net profit of RMB 1.75 billion [12][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Bilibili, with a target price raised to US$26.4 from the previous US$22.0, indicating a potential upside of 19.4% from the current price of US$22.11 [3][11]. Core Insights - Bilibili's 4Q24 earnings exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in mobile games and advertising, with total revenue increasing by 22% year-over-year to RMB7.73 billion [1][6]. - The company reported an adjusted net income of RMB453 million, a significant improvement from an adjusted net loss of RMB556 million in 4Q23, reflecting a narrowing of the adjusted net loss for FY24 to RMB22.1 million [1][2]. - Management has set a long-term operating profit margin (OPM) target of 15-20%, up from 6% in 4Q24, which is expected to enhance investor confidence [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, total revenue reached RMB26.8 billion, marking a 19% year-over-year growth, while the adjusted net loss narrowed by 99% year-over-year [1][2]. - Revenue projections for FY25E and FY26E are set at RMB30.4 billion and RMB32.6 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 13.4% and 7.1% [2][7]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 37.3% in FY25E, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB1.75 billion [2][7]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from mobile games surged by 79% year-over-year to RMB1.80 billion in 4Q24, contributing 23% to total revenue [6]. - Advertising revenue grew by 24% year-over-year to RMB2.39 billion, driven by a 40% increase in performance ad revenues and a 30% rise in the number of advertisers [6]. - Value-added services (VAS) revenue increased by 8% year-over-year to RMB3.08 billion, accounting for 40% of total revenue, supported by premium membership and the Fan Charging program [6]. Margin and Profitability Outlook - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 10 percentage points year-over-year to 36.1% in 4Q24, with adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) rising by 17 percentage points to 6.0% [6]. - For FY25E, the adjusted OPM is expected to expand to 5.8%, with long-term targets set at 40-45% for GPM and 15-20% for OPM [6][11]. Valuation Metrics - The SOTP valuation indicates a target price of US$26.4 per ADS, with the advertising business valued at US$10.5, VAS at US$8.0, and mobile games at US$8.0 [11][12]. - The report highlights that the target price reflects a 2.6x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for 2025E [11].

Operational & User Growth - Bilibili's MAUs reached 340 million[5], DAUs reached 103 million[5] in Q4 2024 - Average daily time spent per user reached 99 minutes[5] in Q4 2024 - DAUs increased from 54 million in Q4 2020 to 103 million in Q4 2024[7] Financial Performance - Bilibili's total net revenues reached RMB 26832 million in 2024, a 19% year-over-year increase[62] - Gross profit increased by 61% year-over-year, reaching RMB 8774 million in 2024[78] - Advertising revenues increased by 28% year-over-year, reaching RMB 8189 million in 2024[49] - Mobile game revenues increased by 40% year-over-year, reaching RMB 5610 million in 2024[58] - Bilibili achieved a gross profit margin of 361% in Q4 2024[10] Community & Content - Approximately 40% of DAUs viewed video and live commerce related content[16] - Over 31 million content creators received income on Bilibili in 2024[25] - Total GMV from video and live commerce increased by over 150% year-over-year in 2024[46]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for Q4 reached RMB 7.7 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 22%, while full-year revenues were RMB 26.8 billion, up 19% year-over-year [8][37] - The company achieved its first GAAP net profit in Q4 at RMB 89 million, with adjusted net profit reaching RMB 452 million [9][41] - Gross profit margin improved to 36.1% in Q4, up from 26.1% in the same period last year, contributing to a 68% year-over-year growth in gross profit [9][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Advertising revenues increased by 24% year-over-year in Q4 to RMB 2.4 billion, and for the full year, it grew by 28% to RMB 8.2 billion [22][64] - Mobile games revenues surged by 79% year-over-year in Q4 to RMB 1.8 billion, and for the year, it increased by 40% to RMB 5.6 billion [27][38] - VAS revenues grew by 8% in Q4 to RMB 3.1 billion and by 11% for the full year to RMB 11 billion [30][38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Daily Active Users (DAUs) reached 103 million, while Monthly Active Users (MAUs) were 340 million, with users spending an average of 99 minutes daily on the platform [10][18] - The user base represents nearly 70% of China's Gen Z population, with an average age of 25, indicating a strong consumer demographic [10][66] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance its content, community, and commercialization strategies, focusing on high-quality content as a key driver for user engagement and monetization [13][49] - The integration of AI technology is seen as a significant opportunity to enhance content creation and user engagement, leveraging high-quality data assets [12][58] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the advertising business growth in 2025, expecting to maintain above-industry growth rates [24][74] - The company plans to continue expanding its user base and enhancing brand awareness through strategic partnerships and high-quality content initiatives [102][101] Other Important Information - The company completed a share repurchase program of up to USD 200 million, reflecting confidence in its cash flow generation [42][43] - The partnership with CCTV for the Spring Festival Gala significantly increased DAUs by 20% year-over-year during the event [96][99] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the overall strategy for 2025 and the role of AI? - Management highlighted the importance of high-quality content and community growth as central to the strategy for 2025, with AI integration expected to enhance user engagement and content creation [46][47] Question: Can you elaborate on the drivers for strong advertisement growth in 2024? - The advertising business saw significant growth due to a high-quality user base and improved ad efficiency, with performance-based ads growing over 40% year-over-year [63][66] Question: What are the expectations for gross and net margins in 2025? - Management expects continued gross margin expansion, targeting a long-term gross margin of 40% to 45% and an operating profit margin of 15% to 20% [76][80] Question: How will the company expand its user base and brand awareness? - The company plans to leverage successful partnerships and high-quality content initiatives to attract new users and enhance brand equity [93][102]

Financial Performance - Bilibili reported quarterly earnings of $0.15 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.14 per share, compared to a loss of $0.19 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 7.14% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.08 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.12%, and showing an increase from year-ago revenues of $881.13 million [2] Stock Performance - Bilibili shares have increased approximately 12.3% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 4.5% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.09 on revenues of $966.81 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.54 on revenues of $4.17 billion [7] Industry Outlook - The Broadcast Radio and Television industry, to which Bilibili belongs, is currently ranked in the top 29% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Cumulus Media, another company in the same industry, is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.58 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +77.7%, with revenues anticipated to be $218.8 million, down 1.1% from the previous year [9][10]

Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, Bilibili reported total net revenue of RMB 7.734 billion (USD 1.060 billion), a year-over-year increase of 22%[9] - Advertising revenue for Q4 2024 reached RMB 2.389 billion (USD 327 million), up 24% year-over-year, while full-year advertising revenue was RMB 8.189 billion (USD 1.122 billion), increasing by 28%[9] - Mobile gaming revenue in Q4 2024 was RMB 1.798 billion (USD 246 million), a significant increase of 79% year-over-year, with full-year revenue at RMB 5.610 billion (USD 769 million), up 40%[9] - Total net revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB 7.734 billion (USD 1.060 billion), an increase of 22% compared to the same period in 2023[11] - For the fiscal year 2024, total net revenue was RMB 26.832 billion (USD 3.676 billion), an increase of 19% compared to 2023[18] Profitability - Gross profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 2.788 billion (USD 382 million), representing a 68% year-over-year increase, while the gross margin improved to 36.1% from 26.1% in Q4 2023[9] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 889 million (USD 122 million), a turnaround from a net loss of RMB 1.297 billion in the same period last year, with the full-year net loss narrowing by 72% to RMB 1.364 billion (USD 187 million)[9] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 452 million (USD 61.9 million), compared to an adjusted net loss of RMB 556 million in the previous year[9] - Adjusted net loss for the fiscal year 2024 was RMB 390 million (USD 53 million), a 99% reduction compared to the previous year[25] - The net loss for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB (4,811,713) thousand, while the net loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB (1,363,651) thousand[52] Cash Flow and Expenses - Operating cash flow for Q4 2024 was RMB 1.401 billion (USD 192 million), significantly up from RMB 640 million in Q4 2023, with full-year operating cash flow at RMB 6.015 billion (USD 824 million)[9] - Operating expenses totaled RMB 2.662 billion (USD 365 million), a decrease of 10% year-over-year[14] - Cash and cash equivalents, along with short-term investments, amounted to RMB 16.544 billion (USD 2.267 billion) as of December 31, 2024[25] - The company incurred expenses of RMB 354,811 thousand related to the termination of several game projects for the year ended December 31, 2023[52] User Engagement - Daily active users (DAUs) reached 103 million in Q4 2024, an increase from 100 million in the same period last year[9] Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to leverage new AI models to enhance its commercial efficiency and unlock greater value from its unique community[10] - Bilibili repurchased USD 865 million worth of American Depositary Shares and convertible preferred bonds during the year to enhance shareholder returns[10] - The company announced a share repurchase plan to buy back up to $200 million of publicly traded securities within 24 months, with approximately 840,000 American Depositary Shares repurchased at a total cost of $16.4 million as of December 31, 2024[26] - The company completed a tender offer for the repurchase of its 0.50% convertible senior notes due in December 2026, with a total principal amount of $419 million repurchased for a total cash consideration of $419 million[28] Financial Metrics and Reporting - The company utilizes non-GAAP financial metrics such as adjusted operating profit/loss and adjusted net profit/loss to assess its operating performance and inform financial and operational decisions[33] - The company emphasizes the importance of non-GAAP metrics in identifying underlying business trends by excluding certain expenses and gains/losses related to equity incentives and acquisitions[34] - The company’s financial data is presented in thousands, with specific currency conversions based on an exchange rate of 7.2993 RMB to 1 USD as of December 31, 2024[35] Future Outlook - The company expects total net revenue for the fiscal year 2024 to reach approximately RMB 26,831,525, representing a growth of 19.3% compared to the previous year[41] - The company acknowledges inherent risks and uncertainties in its forward-looking statements, which may affect actual performance and financial condition[37] Conference Call - The company will hold an earnings conference call on February 20, 2025, at 7:00 AM EST to discuss its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 results[29]

Core Insights - Bilibili achieved its first quarter of GAAP profitability in Q4 2024, marking a significant milestone for the company [3] - The company reported a total net revenue of RMB 26.83 billion (US$3.68 billion) for the fiscal year 2024, representing a 19% year-over-year increase [5][17] - Daily active users (DAUs) reached 103 million, while monthly active users (MAUs) were 340 million, with users spending an average of 99 minutes daily on the platform [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total net revenues were RMB 7.73 billion (US$1,059.6 million), a 22% increase from Q4 2023 [4][5] - Advertising revenues in Q4 2024 were RMB 2.39 billion (US$327.2 million), up 24% year-over-year, driven by improved advertising efficiency [6][17] - Mobile games revenues surged to RMB 1.80 billion (US$246.3 million) in Q4 2024, reflecting a 79% increase from the same period last year [7] - Gross profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 2.79 billion (US$382.0 million), a 68% increase year-over-year, with a gross profit margin of 36.1% [10][14] Cost and Expenses - Total operating expenses decreased by 10% year-over-year to RMB 2.66 billion (US$364.7 million) in Q4 2024 [10] - Research and development expenses fell by 31% year-over-year to RMB 919.3 million (US$125.9 million) due to one-off termination expenses from previous projects [12][23] - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 10% year-over-year to RMB 1.24 billion (US$169.4 million) [11] Profitability Metrics - The company reported a net profit of RMB 88.9 million (US$12.2 million) for Q4 2024, compared to a net loss of RMB 1.30 billion in the same period last year [14][25] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 452.0 million (US$61.9 million), a significant improvement from an adjusted net loss of RMB 555.8 million in Q4 2023 [14][30] - For the full year 2024, the net loss narrowed by 72% to RMB 1.36 billion (US$186.8 million) [25] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased approximately US$864.8 million worth of outstanding ADSs and convertible senior notes during 2024 [3] - A share repurchase program of up to US$200 million was approved by the board, with US$16.4 million repurchased by the end of 2024 [28] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Operating cash flow for the full year 2024 was RMB 6.01 billion (US$824.0 million), compared to RMB 266.6 million in 2023 [16][26] - As of December 31, 2024, Bilibili had cash and cash equivalents totaling RMB 16.54 billion (US$2.27 billion) [27]

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili Inc. is set to report its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 unaudited financial results on February 20, 2025, before the U.S. market opens [1] Group 1: Earnings Call Details - The earnings conference call will take place at 7:00 AM U.S. Eastern Time on February 20, 2025, which corresponds to 8:00 PM Beijing/Hong Kong Time on the same day [2] - Participants must register online in advance to receive dial-in numbers and a personal PIN for the conference call [2] - A live webcast of the conference call will be available on the company's investor relations website, with a replay accessible after the session [3] Group 2: Company Overview - Bilibili is a leading video community in China, focusing on enriching the lives of young generations through a diverse array of video content [4] - The company is known for its "bullet chatting" feature, enhancing user engagement by displaying real-time comments during video viewing [4] - Bilibili aims to promote Chinese culture globally while fostering a strong community among users and content creators [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to generate revenue of 7.63 billion RMB in Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 20%. The revenue breakdown includes gaming at 1.79 billion RMB (yoy +78%), VAS at 3.00 billion RMB (yoy +5%), advertising at 2.36 billion RMB (yoy +23%), and e-commerce at 480 million RMB (yoy -15%) [1]. - The gross profit for Q4 2024 is projected to be 2.74 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 35.9%, and an adjusted net profit of 410 million RMB [1]. Summary by Sections Gaming Business - The new season of the game "Three Strategies" started on January 4, 2025, with new characters and gameplay features. The game ranked in the top five on the iOS revenue chart shortly after the season launch [2]. - The company has successfully launched the global version of "Jujutsu Kaisen," achieving significant download and revenue milestones, with expected overseas revenue nearing 80 million RMB within 30 days of launch [2]. - The gaming pipeline for 2025 includes the overseas version of "Three Strategies" and the domestic launch of "Jujutsu Kaisen" once it receives approval [2]. Advertising Business - The company is enhancing its commercial infrastructure, focusing on brand marketing and expanding into TV and automotive platforms. The introduction of "B Mini Programs" is aimed at improving advertising efficiency [3]. - The number of advertising partners is expected to grow by over 30% in 2024, with significant growth in GMV during promotional events [3]. - The company is committed to producing high-quality content, with a notable increase in viewership for its New Year's Eve gala and securing broadcasting rights for the 2025 Spring Festival Gala [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have a revenue of 26.73 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 18.6%. The adjusted net profit is expected to improve to -90 million RMB in 2024, with a positive outlook for 2025 and 2026 [5][12]. - The report indicates a strong user engagement and potential for monetization in the C-end market, with a slight upward revision of the 2024 net profit forecast to -1.35 billion RMB [4][5].