Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) [3] Core Views - Pop Mart's overseas business has entered a rapid development phase with a focus on the DTC (Direct To Customer) model, achieving significant growth in overseas revenue [1] - The company's overseas revenue in H1 2024 increased by 259 6% YoY to RMB 1 351 billion, accounting for 29 7% of total revenue [1] - Southeast Asia is the fastest-growing market, with revenue increasing by 478 3% YoY to RMB 556 million in H1 2024 [1] Channels - Pop Mart has rapidly expanded its offline stores and robot stores overseas, with 92 stores and 162 robot stores as of June 2024 [1] - The company adopts a "platform + independent station" strategy for online channels, leveraging third-party platforms and building its own independent sites to strengthen brand influence [1] Operations - Pop Mart focuses on product customization and localized promotion, collaborating with international brands and local artists to enhance cultural integration [1] - The company actively operates on international social media platforms and collaborates with KOLs to promote its products [1] Supply Chain - Pop Mart has established overseas bonded warehouses in Southeast Asia and North America, supporting its global supply chain system [1] - The company has achieved a stable inventory level of around RMB 900 million in H1 2024, despite high overseas sales growth [1] Market Potential - The global toy market is expanding, with the Southeast Asian market showing strong growth potential due to its young population and cultural similarities with China [1] - Pop Mart's focus on Southeast Asia is expected to drive long-term growth, leveraging the region's market potential and demographic dividend [1] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with overseas revenue projected to reach RMB 5 149 billion in 2024, representing a 383% YoY increase [1] - Pop Mart's net profit is forecasted to grow by 117 5% YoY in 2024, reaching RMB 2 354 billion [1] Valuation - The report estimates Pop Mart's target market value at RMB 90 5 billion for 2025, corresponding to a 30x PE ratio, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) with a target price of HKD 88 10 [1] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue exceeded market expectations with a year-on-year growth of 120%-125% Domestic revenue grew by 55%-60% while overseas revenue surged by 440%-445% [1] - The company's overseas expansion is accelerating with new stores opened in key markets such as South Korea Italy the Netherlands France and the US contributing to revenue growth [1] - Pop Mart's core IPs like MOLLY SKULLPANDA DIMOO and The MONSTERS continue to drive product innovation and sales growth [1] - The company's online revenue particularly through platforms like TikTok Shop and Tmall has shown significant growth with TikTok Shop achieving a record single-session sales of USD 280 000 [1] Financial Performance - Pop Mart's total revenue for 2024E is projected to be RMB 12 253 million a 93 1% increase from 2023A [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 2 711 million in 2024E up 150 5% from 2023A [2] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve to 66 3% in 2024E from 61 3% in 2023A [6] - EPS is projected to increase from RMB 0 80 in 2023A to RMB 2 02 in 2024E [2] Market Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue growth is driven by both store expansion and improved store efficiency with the number of overseas stores expected to reach 130-140 by the end of 2024 [1] - The company's strategy of localizing products and adopting a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model has been effective in penetrating international markets [1] Product and IP Strategy - Pop Mart continues to innovate with new IPs such as OIPIPPI Nyota CHAKA inosoul and POLAR which have contributed to revenue growth [1] - The company is expanding its product categories including building blocks and exploring new business areas like theme parks and games to enhance the value of its core IPs [1] Valuation and Projections - The report forecasts Pop Mart's net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 2 711 million RMB 3 601 million and RMB 4 458 million respectively [1] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 34 5x in 2024E to 21 0x in 2026E reflecting strong earnings growth [2] Key Financial Metrics - Pop Mart's total assets are projected to grow from RMB 9 969 million in 2023A to RMB 23 348 million in 2026E [6] - The company's operating cash flow is expected to increase significantly from RMB 1 991 million in 2024E to RMB 3 644 million in 2026E [6] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 14 7% in 2023A to 29 7% in 2024E indicating improved profitability [6]

[Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$75.20 目标价 HK$80.90 HTI ESG 4.0-3.5-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 51.3% 87.1% 238.0% 绝对值（美元） 51.7% 87.9% 240.3% 相对 MSCI China 34.7% 68.1% 215.7% [Table_Profit] Rmb mn Dec-23A Dec-24E Dec-25E Dec-26E Revenue 6,301 12,420 16,206 19,966 Revenue (+/-) 36% 97% 30% 23% Net profit 1,191 2,851 3,879 4,951 Net profit (+/-) 108% 139% 36% 28% Diluted EPS (Rmb) 0.89 2.14 2.91 3.72 GPM 61.3% 65.1% 66.2% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in both overseas and online channels [1] - Revenue in Q3 2024 increased by 120%-125% YoY, with mainland China revenue growing by 55%-60% and overseas revenue (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) surging by 440%-445% [2] - The company's overseas expansion and online sales growth are key drivers of its performance [3][4] Mainland China Performance - Retail stores and robot stores in mainland China showed steady growth, with Q3 revenue increasing by 55%-60% YoY [3] - As of October 21, 2024, the company operated 423 stores (including Nanjing Golden Eagle) and 2,224 robot stores in mainland China [3] - Wholesale channels in mainland China grew by 45%-50% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] Online Performance - Online revenue growth accelerated significantly in Q3 2024, with WeChat抽盒机 revenue increasing by 55%-60% YoY and e-commerce platforms growing by 135%-140% YoY [3] - Tmall flagship store revenue surged by 155%-160% YoY, while Douyin flagship store revenue grew by 115%-120% YoY [3] - Douyin's core accounts generated a total GMV of RMB 215 million in Q3 2024, with a 56% MoM increase in September due to a promotional event [3] Overseas Expansion - Overseas revenue (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) grew by 440%-445% YoY in Q3 2024, with full-year growth expected to exceed 300% [4] - The company expanded its overseas presence, opening 112 stores by October 21, 2024, including new theme stores in South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan [4] - TikTok live streaming performed well, with cumulative GMV reaching approximately RMB 220 million, including RMB 90 million from the US and RMB 130 million from Thailand [5] New IP and Product Expansion - The company continued to expand its IP portfolio, launching 6 new IPs in 2024 and introducing 79 new blind box products in Q1-Q3 2024 [6] - New product lines, including labubu forest secret base building blocks and SP plush toys, were launched, with strong market performance [6] - The company diversified into new categories such as desserts, apparel, and accessories, with plans to open independent accessory stores in 2024 [6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 12.07 billion, RMB 15.61 billion, and RMB 18.34 billion, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 2.55 billion, RMB 3.34 billion, and RMB 4.01 billion for 2024-2026 [6] - Adjusted PE ratios for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 33X, 25X, and 21X, respectively [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's current price is HKD 75.20, with a 52-week range of HKD 16.90-76.70 [3] - Total market capitalization is HKD 100.99 billion, with a fully diluted market cap of HKD 100.99 billion [3] - Key valuation metrics include a P/E of 36.3X for 2024E, P/B of 9.3X, and P/S of 7.6X [7][9]

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 22 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 63.45 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7363 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 64.80/16.90 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 852.10 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,342.94 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0916 | 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 联系人 任梦妮 (8621)23297818× renmn@swsresearch.com 轻工制造 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 80 HKD [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 120-125% year-on-year for Q3, driven by strong performance in new product categories and rapid expansion in overseas markets [1][2]. - The domestic revenue growth was 55-60%, with notable contributions from the new plush toy category and successful IP launches [2]. - The overseas revenue saw an impressive increase of 440-445%, primarily due to strong store performance in Southeast Asia and online sales growth [3]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - The company achieved a revenue increase of 120-125% in Q3, exceeding market expectations, with domestic revenue growing by 55-60% and overseas revenue by 440-445% [1]. - New product categories, particularly the plush toys, and the expansion into Southeast Asian and North American markets contributed significantly to this growth [1]. Domestic Business Growth - The domestic revenue growth of 55-60% was attributed to the rapid rollout of plush toys and successful sales from new IPs [2]. - Offline channels, including retail stores and robot stores, experienced growth rates of 30-35% and 20-25%, respectively, while online channels saw a 55-60% increase [2]. Overseas Expansion - The overseas revenue growth of 440-445% was driven by the addition of numerous new stores, particularly in Southeast Asia, where store count increased by 80-90% year-on-year [3]. - The company achieved record sales during the back-to-school season in the U.S. through TikTok, indicating strong performance in the North American market [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued high growth in Q4, with expectations for new product categories and innovative business models to drive future performance [4]. - The expansion in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and North America, is still in its early stages, suggesting further growth potential [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 28.6 billion, 38.5 billion, and 48.1 billion RMB, respectively [5]. - The target price is set at 80 HKD, reflecting a 25x adjusted P/E ratio for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) [1][4] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue growth exceeded expectations, driven by strong domestic online business and rapid overseas expansion [4] - The company's revenue is expected to grow 120-125% YoY in Q3 2024, with domestic business up 55-60% and overseas business surging 440-445% [4] - Profit forecasts have been revised upwards, with projected net profits of 2 7/3 59/4 54 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to EPS of 2 01/2 68/3 38 yuan [4] Domestic Business Performance - Retail store revenue grew 30-35% YoY in Q3 2024, up from 25% in H1 2024 [5] - Robot store revenue increased 20-25% YoY, compared to 16% in H1 2024 [5] - Blind box machine revenue surged 55-60% YoY, a significant improvement from 7% in H1 2024 [5] - E-commerce and other online platforms saw overall revenue growth of 135-140%, with Douyin up 115-120% and Tmall flagship store up 155-160% [5] - Wholesale and other channels grew 45-50% YoY [5] - The company had 457 domestic retail stores as of October 2024, an increase of 24 stores from H1 2024 [5] Overseas Business Expansion - Overseas revenue grew 440-445% YoY in Q3 2024, accelerating from 259 6% in H1 2024 [6] - The company had 113 overseas stores as of Q3 2024, with 23 new stores added since H1 2024 [6] - Regional store distribution: 48 in East Asia, 26 in Southeast Asia, 10 in Europe, 13 in Australia, and 16 in North America [6] - TikTok US sales reached $11 89 million (~84 7 million yuan), while Thailand sales hit 840 million THB (~180 million yuan) [6] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 12 17 billion yuan in 2024E to 20 3 billion yuan in 2026E, with YoY growth rates of 93 1%/33 2%/25 2% [7] - Net profit is expected to increase from 2 7 billion yuan in 2024E to 4 535 billion yuan in 2026E, with YoY growth rates of 149 4%/33 1%/26 2% [7] - Gross margin is forecast to improve from 64 0% in 2024E to 64 2% in 2026E [7] - Net margin is projected to remain stable at 22 2-22 3% from 2024E to 2026E [7] - ROE is expected to peak at 25 2% in 2025E before slightly declining to 24 0% in 2026E [7] - P/E ratio is forecast to decrease from 28 7x in 2024E to 17 1x in 2026E [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 120%-125% year-on-year for Q3 2024, with mainland China revenue growing by 55%-60% and revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets increasing by 440%-445% [2][3] - The growth is driven by the release of key IP products and new product launches, with a notable performance from The Monsters plush products and new series contributing to revenue growth [2] - The company is expected to continue its rapid growth driven by high-quality IP and improved supply chain capabilities [2][3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach RMB 12,745 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 100.87% [1] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised to RMB 2,937.34 million, RMB 3,817.63 million, and RMB 4,706.84 million respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of approximately 31, 24, and 20 times [3] Market Performance - The company has seen significant growth in both offline and online channels, with retail store revenue increasing by 30%-35% year-on-year and online flagship store revenue on platforms like Tmall and Douyin growing by 155%-160% and 115%-120% respectively [2] - The overseas market has also accelerated, with Labubu gaining traction in Thailand and overseas revenue accounting for over 45% of total revenue by September [3] Financial Metrics - The report highlights a projected EPS of RMB 2.10 for 2024, with a significant increase in net profit margins and return on equity [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 78.9, indicating a potential upside of 24.3% from the current price of HKD 63.5 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue growth of 120%-125% year-on-year in Q3 2024, surpassing market expectations, and demonstrating strong operational capabilities in IP management and global expansion potential [2][3]. - The report highlights a robust performance in the Chinese market, with revenue growth of 55%-60% in Q3 2024, compared to 32% in the first half of the year, showcasing the company's resilience in a challenging economic environment [2][7]. - Internationally, the company reported an impressive 440%-445% revenue growth in Q3 2024, further validating its global expansion strategy and the effectiveness of its IP monetization efforts [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards by 20%-31%, with net profit estimates increased by 24%-36% [2][8]. - The company is expected to generate revenues of RMB 12,395 million in 2024, RMB 17,733 million in 2025, and RMB 22,156 million in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 96.7%, 43.1%, and 24.9% respectively [3][5]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 2,599 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of 140.1% [3][5]. Market Position and Valuation - The current valuation stands at 18.8 times the estimated P/E for 2025, with a PEG ratio of approximately 0.3, indicating that the stock remains attractive compared to other consumer stocks in China [2][3]. - The company’s strong IP incubation capabilities and optimistic outlook for international markets contribute to a strong long-term growth trajectory [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Pop Mart (9992 HK) is not explicitly mentioned in the report, but the analysis suggests a positive outlook due to strong revenue growth and upward revisions in profit forecasts [1][2] Core Viewpoints - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue growth exceeded expectations, with overall revenue increasing by 120%-125% YoY, driven by strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets [1] - Domestic revenue grew by 55%-60% YoY, while overseas revenue surged by 440%-445% YoY, significantly outperforming the company's initial guidance [1] - The company's IP commercialization capabilities have been validated, with overseas markets contributing 29 7% of total revenue in H1 2024, surpassing the full-year 2023 overseas revenue [1] - Pop Mart's diversified business model, including IP incubation, retail, theme parks, and digital entertainment, is expected to drive future growth [2] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue growth was supported by multiple channels: retail stores (+30-35% YoY), robot stores (+20-25% YoY), Pop Mart's online box-drawing machine (+55-60% YoY), and e-commerce platforms (+135-140% YoY) [1] - Overseas revenue growth was driven by the opening of flagship stores and key locations, with notable performances in Thailand, where a Labubu-themed store achieved over RMB 10 million in sales on its opening day [1] Business Expansion - Pop Mart is actively exploring new business models, including theme parks, games, and PTS toy exhibitions, which have already shown profitability [2] - The company plans to open 30-40 new overseas stores in H2 2024, with Q4 expected to contribute over 40% of annual sales due to the holiday season [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 12 1 billion, RMB 17 1 billion, and RMB 22 2 billion, representing YoY growth of 92%, 41%, and 30%, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 2 68 billion, RMB 4 14 billion, and RMB 5 70 billion for 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 148%, 54%, and 38% [2] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 1 99, RMB 3 08, and RMB 4 24, with corresponding P/E ratios of 29X, 19X, and 14X as of October 22, 2024 [2] Key Financial Metrics - Gross margin is expected to improve from 61 32% in 2023 to 66 08% in 2026, driven by higher overseas revenue and economies of scale [6] - Net profit margin is projected to increase from 17 18% in 2023 to 25 65% in 2026, reflecting the company's improved profitability [6]