泡泡玛特大涨18%，总市值突破千亿港元。 泡泡玛特在今日交易中股价大幅上涨18.44%，最新报价为75.15港元。 成交额达到5.84亿港元。 目前，泡泡玛特的市盈率TTM为60.31，市净率为10.96，总市值为1009.22亿港元，每手交易单位为200 股。 泡泡玛特10月22日在港交所发布公告称，第三季度整体收益同比增长120%—125%，其中中国内地收益 同比增长55%—60%，港澳台及海外收益同比增长440%—445%。 零售店收益同比增长30%—35%。 机器人商店收益同比增长20%—25%。 泡泡玛特抽盒机收益同比增长55%—60%。 电商平台及其他线上平台收益同比增长135%—140%，其中抖音平台收益同比增长115%—120%，天猫 旗舰店收益同比增长155%—160%。 批发及其他渠道收益同比增长45%—50%。 校对：杨舒欣 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a target price of HKD 63 6 [2] Core Views - The global and Chinese trendy toy markets are experiencing rapid growth with CAGRs of 22 8% (2015-2019) and 32 8% (2015-2021) respectively The Chinese market is expected to reach RMB 76 4 billion by 2024 [2] - Pop Mart has established a comprehensive trendy toy industry chain platform with strong IP mining and operation capabilities Its domestic business is entering a high-quality development phase while overseas markets are becoming a second growth curve [2][3] - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to grow significantly from 2024 to 2026 with projected CAGRs of 39 6% and 51 9% respectively [3] Industry Overview - The trendy toy industry has evolved from a niche luxury market to a mass-market phenomenon driven by blind box products and expanding IP boundaries The global market size grew from $8 7 billion in 2015 to $19 8 billion in 2019 [10] - China's trendy toy market is still in a high-growth phase with significant room for penetration and concentration improvement The market size increased from RMB 6 3 billion in 2015 to RMB 34 5 billion in 2021 [12] - Z generation consumers aged 18-35 are the main driving force behind the trendy toy market accounting for 55% of purchases [13][14] Company Analysis Business Model - Pop Mart operates a full industry chain platform covering artist discovery IP operation consumer reach and trendy toy promotion It has established a leading sales network with 374 retail stores and 2 189 robot stores in mainland China and 92 retail stores (including joint ventures) and 162 robot stores in overseas markets as of June 2024 [2] - The company has developed a robust IP matrix including artist IPs (MOLLY DIMOO SKULLPANDA) and licensed IPs (Disney Marvel) In 2023 it had 10 artist IPs with sales exceeding RMB 100 million [30] Financial Performance - In H1 2024 Pop Mart achieved revenue of RMB 4 56 billion (+62 0% YoY) and net profit of RMB 921 million (+93 3% YoY) Overseas revenue grew 259 6% YoY accounting for 29 7% of total revenue [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 64 0% in H1 2024 driven by supply chain optimization and product structure improvement [44] Growth Drivers - Domestic growth is supported by store upgrades product category expansion and new channel development particularly on Douyin [47] - Overseas markets are becoming a key growth driver with revenue contribution increasing to 30% in H1 2024 The company is accelerating DTC strategy implementation and local market penetration [47] Future Outlook - Pop Mart is expected to maintain strong growth momentum with projected revenue of RMB 10 24 billion (+62 5% YoY) and net profit of RMB 2 11 billion (+95 3% YoY) in 2024 [3] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 37X 28X and 22X respectively based on the closing price of HKD 63 95 on October 18 2024 [3]

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 65.0 for the company, based on a 28x adjusted PE for 2025 [1][6] Core Investment Thesis - The company is a leading platform for commercializing trendy IPs in China, with a mature operational system covering IP incubation, efficient supply chains, and omnichannel sales [1] - Four key drivers for 2024-26: overseas market expansion, store optimization, product innovation, and operational efficiency improvements [1] - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of RMB 2.21 billion, RMB 2.82 billion, and RMB 3.42 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] Industry Overview - The trendy toy market in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by self-indulgence trends, female consumer power, and social media influence [2] - The domestic entertainment product market is projected to grow from RMB 71 billion in 2023 to RMB 128.9 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 16% [2] - The global trendy toy market was valued at USD 57.1 billion in 2023, with significant potential for Chinese brands to expand overseas [2] Company Strategy and Growth Drivers - The company is transitioning into a "big trendy toy" era, focusing on internationalization, product innovation, and refined operations [3] - Overseas revenue accounted for 30% of total revenue in 1H24, with a projected year-on-year growth of over 200% for the full year [4] - The company plans to expand its overseas store count to 130-140 by the end of 2024, with strong performance in high-potential markets like Thailand and the US [4] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 6.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.6 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 21.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 1.08 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.34 billion by 2026 [5] - ROE is expected to rise from 14.69% in 2023 to 26.32% by 2026, reflecting improved profitability and operational efficiency [5] Competitive Advantages - The company has built a strong IP matrix, with 10 IPs generating over RMB 100 million in sales annually [14] - Its supply chain efficiency and digital systems have improved, with automation levels increasing from less than 10% to 30-40% in recent years [43] - The company has a deep membership system with 3.89 million members as of 1H24, and a high repurchase rate of 50% [45] Market Expansion and Product Innovation - The company is expanding its product lines beyond blind boxes, with new categories like plush toys, building blocks, and collectible cards contributing to revenue growth [41] - It plans to launch non-toy formats such as dessert shops and accessory stores by the end of 2024, leveraging its IP resources [41] - The company is also exploring IP licensing, gaming, and theme parks to diversify its revenue streams [60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) with a target price of HKD 63.35, implying a 22.30% upside from the current price [7] Core Views - Pop Mart's IP platformization and globalization strategies are yielding results, with overseas expansion and category diversification driving growth [5] - The company's overseas strategy is replicable, with higher pricing and profitability compared to the domestic market [5] - Pop Mart's overseas market potential is estimated to exceed RMB 10 billion, with a long-term target of over 500 stores globally [5][46] - The company's IP creation and operational capabilities have been validated, with a focus on extending IP lifecycles and expanding commercialization through category diversification [6] Overseas Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue grew 2.6x in H1 2024, contributing 29.7% of total revenue, with Southeast Asia being a key growth driver [16] - The company's overseas gross margin exceeds domestic levels, with offline and online channels achieving 72% and 73% gross margins, respectively [17] - Pop Mart's overseas pricing strategy includes premium pricing in markets like the US and UK, with average premium rates ranging from 12% to 61% [20] - The company's overseas expansion follows a phased approach, transitioning from B2B to B2C and from light to heavy asset investments [31] Domestic Growth Sustainability - Pop Mart's domestic growth is supported by IP platformization, with multiple revenue-generating IPs reducing reliance on any single IP [55] - The company's offline retail store network in China is expanding, with 374 stores as of H1 2024, and there is still room for growth compared to Lego's 500 stores in China [58] - Category expansion, including high-end and derivative products, is driving ARPPU growth and contributing significantly to domestic revenue [64][65] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 10.278 billion, RMB 13.333 billion, and RMB 16.296 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 63%, 30%, and 22% [7] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 2.193 billion, RMB 2.849 billion, and RMB 3.568 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 85%, 30%, and 25% [7]

Revenue Growth - Revenue increased by 62.0% to RMB 4,557,831,000 in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023[19] - Revenue reached RMB4,557.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%[23][24] - The company's revenue increased by 62.0% year-on-year, from RMB2,813.8 million in the first half of 2023 to RMB4,557.8 million in the first half of 2024[52][53] - Total revenue increased by 62.0% from RMB2,813.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB4,557.8 million in H1 2024[83] - Revenue increased to RMB 4,557,831,000, up 62% from RMB 2,813,812,000 in the same period last year[172] Profitability - Gross profit rose by 71.9% to RMB 2,919,105,000, with a gross profit margin of 64.0%[19] - Operating profit surged by 109.5% to RMB 1,126,417,000[19] - Profit for the period doubled to RMB 964,142,000, a 102.0% increase[19] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit grew by 90.1% to RMB 1,017,625,000[19] - The company's gross profit margin increased from 60.4% in the first half of 2023 to 64.0% in the first half of 2024[56] - Gross profit grew by 71.9% from RMB1,698.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB2,919.1 million in H1 2024, with gross profit margin rising from 60.4% to 64.0%[84] - Operating profit surged by 109.5% from RMB537.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB1,126.4 million in H1 2024[86] - Profit for the period increased by 102.0% from RMB477.2 million in H1 2023 to RMB964.1 million in H1 2024[86] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit grew to RMB1,017.6 million in H1 2024, up from RMB535.4 million in H1 2023[87] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit margin improved from 19.0% in H1 2023 to 22.3% in H1 2024[87] - Gross profit rose to RMB 2,919,105,000, a 72% increase from RMB 1,698,360,000 in the previous year[172] - Operating profit surged to RMB 1,126,417,000, more than double the RMB 537,762,000 recorded in the prior year[172] - Net profit attributable to owners of the company grew to RMB 921,333,000, up 93% from RMB 476,575,000[172] - Basic earnings per share increased to RMB 69.49 cents, up 96% from RMB 35.46 cents[174] Regional Revenue - Mainland China revenue was RMB3,206.4 million, up 31.5% year-on-year[23][24] - Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and overseas revenue surged to RMB1,351.5 million, a 259.6% year-on-year increase, accounting for 29.7% of total revenue[23][24] - Revenue from offline channels in Mainland China increased by 23.1%, from RMB1,450.6 million in the first half of 2023 to RMB1,786.3 million in the first half of 2024[58][59] - Revenue from offline channels in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and overseas increased significantly, from RMB190.4 million in the first half of 2023 to RMB946.7 million in the first half of 2024[56] - Offline channel revenue in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and overseas skyrocketed by 397.3% YoY from RMB190.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB946.7 million in H1 2024[68][69] - Revenue from Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and overseas increased by 259.6% year-on-year from RMB375.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB1,351.5 million in H1 2024, with Southeast Asia contributing 41.1% of the total revenue[75][76] - Revenue from North America increased by 377.7% year-on-year from RMB37.3 million in H1 2023 to RMB178.0 million in H1 2024, contributing 13.2% of total revenue[76] IP and Product Performance - MOLLY revenue increased by 90.1% year-on-year to RMB782.2 million[26][27] - THE MONSTERS revenue grew 292.2% year-on-year to RMB626.8 million[26][27] - SKULLPANDA revenue rose 9.2% year-on-year to RMB574.6 million[26][27] - Hirono IP revenue increased by 124.3% year-on-year[29][32] - Zsiga IP revenue grew 169.5% year-on-year[29][32] - MEGA COLLECTION revenue was RMB586.1 million, accounting for 12.9% of total revenue[31][32] - Plush products revenue reached RMB446.1 million, representing 9.8% of total revenue[33] - Plush products generated revenue of RMB 446.1 million in the first half of 2024, accounting for 9.8% of total revenue[34] - MOLLY IP revenue increased by 90.1% year-on-year from RMB411.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB782.2 million in H1 2024, contributing 17.2% of total revenue[79] - THE MONSTERS IP revenue surged by 292.2% year-on-year from RMB159.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB626.8 million in H1 2024, accounting for 13.7% of total revenue[79] - Revenue from artist IPs increased by 70.4% from RMB2,164.3 million in H1 2023 to RMB3,687.8 million in H1 2024, with its revenue proportion rising from 76.9% to 81.0%[80][81] - Revenue from licensed IPs grew by 64.9% from RMB421.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB694.9 million in H1 2024[81] - Figure toys revenue increased by 30.2% from RMB2,041.1 million in H1 2023 to RMB2,656.8 million in H1 2024[83][84] - MEGA revenue surged by 141.9% from RMB242.3 million in H1 2023 to RMB586.1 million in H1 2024[83][84] - Plush toys revenue skyrocketed by 993.6% from RMB40.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB446.1 million in H1 2024[83][84] - Other IP-related products and others revenue rose by 77.5% from RMB489.6 million in H1 2023 to RMB868.8 million in H1 2024[83][84] Store and Channel Performance - The company opened 20 new physical stores in Mainland China in the first half of 2024, increasing the total number of stores from 363 to 374[36][37] - Revenue from the Pop Draw Weixin mini program reached RMB 399.2 million in the first half of 2024, showing positive year-on-year growth[38][40] - DouYin platform revenue increased by 90.7% year-on-year to RMB 208.9 million in the first half of 2024[38][40] - Tmall Flagship store revenue grew by 28.1% year-on-year to RMB 198.8 million in the first half of 2024[38][40] - The company had 92 physical stores and 162 roboshops in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and overseas as of 30 June 2024[42][45] - Retail store revenue increased by 24.7% YoY from RMB1,179.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB1,471.3 million in H1 2024, with the total number of retail stores reaching 374 by June 2024[61][62] - Roboshop revenue grew by 16.2% YoY from RMB271.1 million in H1 2023 to RMB315.0 million in H1 2024, with the total number of roboshops reaching 2,189 by June 2024[62] - Online channel revenue surged by 34.0% YoY from RMB817.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB1,095.7 million in H1 2024, with DouYin platform revenue increasing by 90.7%[63][64] - Retail store revenue in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and overseas surged by 441.5% YoY from RMB165.0 million in H1 2023 to RMB893.5 million in H1 2024, with the total number of retail stores reaching 83 by June 2024[69] - Revenue from roboshop sales in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and overseas increased by 109.7% year-on-year from RMB25.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB53.2 million in H1 2024, with the total number of roboshops reaching 143 as of 30 June 2024[70] - Online sales revenue increased by 335.4% year-on-year from RMB56.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB247.2 million in H1 2024, with Pop Mart official website revenue growing by 465.5% to RMB69.6 million[71][72] Financial Position - Total assets increased to RMB 11,017,479,000 as of 30 June 2024[20] - Total equity reached RMB 8,452,657,000, up from RMB 7,780,382,000 at the end of 2023[20] - Net current assets increased from RMB5,950.2 million as of 31 December 2023 to RMB6,647.0 million as of 30 June 2024[90][92] - Trade receivables decreased from RMB321.3 million as of 31 December 2023 to RMB263.7 million as of 30 June 2024, with turnover days decreasing from 15 days to 12 days[93][97] - Inventories increased from RMB904.7 million as of 31 December 2023 to RMB916.7 million as of 30 June 2024, with turnover days decreasing from 133 days to 101 days[94][98] - Cash and cash equivalents increased from RMB2,077.9 million as of 31 December 2023 to RMB3,608.7 million as of 30 June 2024[95][99] - Trade payables increased from RMB444.9 million as of 31 December 2023 to RMB555.1 million as of 30 June 2024, with turnover days increasing from 53 days to 56 days[96][100] - The gearing ratio increased from 22.0% as of 31 December 2023 to 23.3% as of 30 June 2024[103][105] - Total assets expanded to RMB 11,017,479,000, a 10.5% increase from RMB 9,968,863,000 at the end of 2023[176] - Cash and cash equivalents rose to RMB 3,608,674,000, a 73.7% increase from RMB 2,077,927,000[176] - Total equity increased to RMB 8,452,657,000, up 8.6% from RMB 7,780,382,000[176] - Non-current assets grew to RMB 2,302,138,000, a 0.7% increase from RMB 2,285,394,000[176] - Current liabilities increased to RMB 2,068,343,000, up 19.3% from RMB 1,733,301,000[177] - The company's retained earnings as of 30 June 2024 stood at RMB 4,239,103 thousand[179] - Total equity attributable to owners of the company as of 30 June 2024 was RMB 8,399,036 thousand[179] - Non-controlling interests as of 30 June 2024 were RMB 53,621 thousand[179] - The company's total equity as of 30 June 2024 was RMB 8,452,657 thousand[179] - The Group has cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and term deposits totaling RMB 7,029,903,000 as of June 30, 2024[195] - Trade payables increased to RMB 555,137,000 as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 444,944,000 at the end of 2023[196] - License fees payables rose to RMB 288,510,000 as of June 30, 2024, up from RMB 197,114,000 at the end of 2023[196] - Lease liabilities totaled RMB 905,051,000 as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 880,155,000 at the end of 2023[196] - The Group's total financial liabilities amounted to RMB 2,081,901,000 as of June 30, 2024, up from RMB 1,846,682,000 at the end of 2023[196] Cash Flow - Net cash generated from operating activities increased to RMB 1,905,271 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 1,092,337 thousand in 2023[182] - Interest received surged to RMB 191,283 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 76,715 thousand in 2023[182] - Income tax paid rose to RMB 194,041 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 97,857 thousand in 2023[182] - Net cash generated from investing activities reached RMB 333,591 thousand in 2024, significantly higher than RMB 82,034 thousand in 2023[182] - Dividends paid increased to RMB 373,025 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 118,995 thousand in 2023[183] - Net increase in cash and cash equivalents was RMB 1,522,888 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 616,084 thousand in 2023[183] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period stood at RMB 3,608,674 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 1,473,382 thousand in 2023[183] Expenses - Costs of sales increased by 46.9% from RMB1,115.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB1,638.7 million in H1 2024, driven by higher goods costs and design/licensing expenses[84] - Distribution and selling expenses increased by 54.1% from RMB878.3 million in H1 2023 to RMB1,353.2 million in H1 2024[85] - Employee benefit expenses rose by 31.7% from RMB281.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB370.5 million in H1 2024, driven by an increase in sales personnel from 3,189 to 4,232[85] - Lease-related expenses increased by 58.7% from RMB210.2 million in H1 2023 to RMB333.6 million in H1 2024, due to the addition of 79 offline retail outlets[85] - General and administrative expenses grew by 31.1% from RMB331.3 million in H1 2023 to RMB434.4 million in H1 2024, with administrative and design personnel increasing from 959 to 1,238[85] - Share-based compensation expenses in 2024 were RMB 53,483 thousand[179] Strategic Initiatives - The company launched several new IPs and product series that gained popularity among consumers[22] - The company launched its first building block product in mid-June 2024, enhancing IP representation and fan interaction through innovations in craftsmanship, materials, and gameplay[34][35] - The company opened themed and flagship stores in multiple overseas landmarks, including Bangkok, Los Angeles, Vietnam, and Oxford Street, enhancing global brand awareness[43][45] - The overseas e-commerce team applied differentiated strategies on platforms like Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok, focusing on localized services and high-quality content to drive sales and brand exposure[44][45] - POP LAND successfully established must-visit attractions, must-try dining experiences, and must-buy products, attracting a broad spectrum of fans and families from China and internationally[47] - The "2024 PTS Beijing International Pop Toy Festival" hosted 26 autograph sessions and nearly a hundred entertainment events, transforming from a traditional "Pop Toy Convention" to a comprehensive "Pop Toy Festival"[48] - LABUBU debuted as the "Magical Thailand Experience Ambassador" in Thailand, enhancing the brand's visibility and influence in the country[50] - The company launched its first self-designed mobile game, Dream Home, on 27 June 2024, combining business simulation and party gameplay for a lighter and more casual gaming experience[51] - The company plans to enrich IP types, expand the IP base, and introduce more products under the top series, while continuously incubating and operating IPs to strengthen their essence and deepen fan connections[114] - The company aims to increase the types of pop toys, explore the value of box products like MEGA, plush toys, and toy bricks, and improve relevant technologies and production and sales procedures[114] - The company will deploy its supply chain globally, seeking more suitable and efficient partners, including manufacturers and suppliers, to meet market demand and ensure efficient production supply[114] - The company will focus on sustainable development and environmental protection by launching more products and packaging made of environmentally friendly materials[114] - The company plans to expand its global business footprint, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe, by establishing offline channels in major global landmarks and enhancing consumer experiences[115][117] - The company will strengthen partnerships with third-party platforms, invest in content-driven e-commerce platforms, and collaborate with more brands and artists to enrich product lines and boost brand awareness[

憶证券 轻工制造/文娱用品 公 司 研 究 产品场景化布局助力 IP 集团化推进，成长空间可期 泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 2024 年 09 月 18 日 ——港股公司深度报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------| | | | | | 吕明（分析师） | 周嘉乐（分析师） | 骆扬（联系人） | | lvming@kysec.cn | zhoujiale@kysec.cn | luoyang@kysec.cn | | 证书编号： S0790520030002 | 证书编号： S0790522030002 | 证书编号： S0790122120029 | | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/9/17 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 49.250 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 49.500/16.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) with a target price of HKD 56 2 [1] Core Views - Pop Mart's 2024 H1 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of RMB 4 56 billion (+62 0% YoY) and net profit of RMB 960 million (+102 0% YoY) [1] - Domestic market revenue grew 31 5% YoY to RMB 3 21 billion driven by strong performance across all channels [1] - Overseas markets saw explosive growth with revenue surging 259 6% YoY to RMB 1 35 billion accounting for 29 7% of total revenue [1] - Gross margin improved by 3 6 ppts to 64 0% due to supply chain optimization and higher contribution from high-margin overseas sales [1] - The company plans to open 30-40 new overseas stores in H2 2024 [1] Domestic Market Performance - Offline channels: Retail store revenue grew 24 7% YoY with 11 new stores opened and single-store sales up 13% [1] - Online channels: Revenue increased 34 0% YoY with strong growth in Douyin (+91%) and Tmall (+28%) [1] - Wholesale and other: Revenue surged 90 8% YoY driven by immersive IP experiences in theme parks [1] Overseas Market Expansion - Southeast Asia: Revenue grew 478% YoY with the LABUBU theme store in Bangkok achieving daily sales of RMB 10 million [1] - North America and Europe: Revenue increased 378% and 159% YoY respectively [1] - Offline channels: Retail store revenue surged 442% YoY with 13 new stores opened [1] - Online channels: Revenue grew 335% YoY led by strong performance on Lazada (+387 9%) and Shopee (+205 2%) [1] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: RMB 10 579 billion (+66 7%) RMB 13 855 billion (+31 0%) RMB 16 822 billion (+21 4%) [1] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: RMB 2 152 billion (+98 9%) RMB 2 858 billion (+32 8%) RMB 3 537 billion (+23 7%) [1] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: RMB 1 60 RMB 2 13 RMB 2 63 [1] Valuation - 2024-2026 PE ratios: 28X 21X 17X [1] - 2024-2026 PB ratios: 6 1X 4 7X 3 7X [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in H1 2024, with total revenue reaching 4.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%. The adjusted net profit for the same period was 1.018 billion yuan, reflecting a 90.1% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's overseas business is expanding rapidly, with revenue from regions including Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets growing by 259.6% to 1.351 billion yuan, accounting for 29.7% of total revenue [2]. - The report forecasts continued growth, projecting revenues of 10.25 billion yuan, 11.58 billion yuan, and 12.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1.988 billion yuan, 2.306 billion yuan, and 2.583 billion yuan for the same years [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Overview - In H1 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 64.0%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year. The adjusted net profit margin was 22.3%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s inventory ratio was 10.5%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Domestic Channels - Revenue from online channels, retail stores, robots, and wholesale in mainland China reached 1.096 billion yuan, 1.471 billion yuan, 315 million yuan, and 324 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.0%, 24.7%, 16.2%, and 90.8% [1]. - The average revenue per retail store and robot store increased by 13.4% and 16.0% to 393.39 thousand yuan and 14.39 thousand yuan respectively [1]. International Channels - The company’s international revenue from online and offline channels saw substantial growth, with online sales increasing by 465.5% and retail store revenue by 441.5% [2]. - The company opened new stores in various international locations, including Bangkok, Los Angeles, and Oxford Street, increasing the number of overseas retail and robot stores to 92 and 162 respectively [2]. Product Performance - Key IPs such as MOLLY, THE MONSTERS, and SKULLPANDA generated revenues of 782 million yuan, 627 million yuan, and 575 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 90.1%, 292.2%, and 9.2% [2]. - The high-end product category MEGA achieved revenue of 586 million yuan, while new IP Zsiga and Hirono saw revenue increases of 169.5% and 124.3% respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's 2024H1 performance significantly exceeded market expectations, with revenue and profit showing substantial year-over-year growth [5] - Overseas revenue growth and domestic category expansion are key drivers of the company's performance [3][5] - The company's gross margin improved significantly, and cost control was effective [5] - The company's cash position increased, and operational conditions improved [5] - Overseas and Douyin (TikTok) channels contributed significantly to revenue growth [6][7] - The company has diversified its product categories, with blind box sales accounting for less than 60% of total revenue [9] - The company is exploring new business areas such as theme parks and games, expanding IP commercialization [10][11] Market Performance - The company's stock outperformed the Hang Seng Index significantly over the past 12 months, with a 104.1% increase compared to the Hang Seng Index's -1.3% [2] - The company's current stock price is HKD 47.75, with a 52-week price range of HKD 16.90-48.25 [2] - The company's market capitalization is HKD 64,125.54 million, with a daily average trading volume of HKD 381.16 million [2] Financial Performance - 2024H1 revenue reached RMB 4.56 billion (YOY +62%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 920 million (YOY +93.3%) [4][5] - Adjusted net profit was RMB 1.02 billion (YOY +90.1%), with an adjusted profit margin of 22.3% (up 3.3 percentage points YoY) [5] - Gross margin increased to 64% (up 3.7 percentage points YoY) [5] - Cash on hand increased to RMB 7.01 billion (YOY +17.6%) [5] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue in 2024H1 was RMB 3.21 billion (YOY +31.5%), accounting for 70.3% of total revenue [3] - Overseas revenue in 2024H1 was RMB 1.35 billion (YOY +259.6%), accounting for 29.7% of total revenue [7] - Online revenue in 2024H1 grew by 34%, with Douyin channel revenue increasing by 90.7% [7] - Offline revenue in 2024H1 grew by 24.7% for stores and 16.2% for robots [3] Product and IP Performance - 7 IPs generated over RMB 100 million in revenue in 2024H1, with MOLLY revenue increasing by 90.1% [9] - Blind box and figurine revenue accounted for 58.3% of total revenue, down 14.2 percentage points YoY [9] - MEGA, plush, and derivative products saw significant revenue growth, with plush revenue increasing by 993.6% [9] - The company launched new product categories such as cards, building blocks, and POP CUBE [9] Expansion and Future Plans - The company plans to open 30-40 new overseas stores in the second half of 2024 [7] - The company is exploring new business areas such as theme parks and games, with the launch of its first mobile game "Dream Home" in June 2024 [10][11] - The company is expanding its IP commercialization through collaborations and pop-up stores [10][11] Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 10.20 billion in 2024, RMB 13.09 billion in 2025, and RMB 15.48 billion in 2026 [12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 2.06 billion in 2024, RMB 2.66 billion in 2025, and RMB 3.18 billion in 2026 [12] - The company's adjusted PE ratio is expected to be 26X in 2024, 20X in 2025, and 17X in 2026 [12]

Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report [3] Core Views - Pop Mart achieved a 62% YoY revenue growth in H1 2024, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 93.3% YoY [1] - The company raised its full-year growth guidance, expecting revenue growth of at least 60% (up from 30%) and overseas revenue growth of at least 200% (up from 100%) [2][10][11] - Overseas expansion and new IP product launches are expected to drive further growth [1][10] Revenue Breakdown Overall Revenue - H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 4.558 billion, a 62% YoY increase [1][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 921 million, up 93.3% YoY [6] Regional Revenue Mainland China - Revenue grew 31.5% YoY to RMB 3.206 billion [1][6] - Offline channels contributed 39.2% of revenue, with retail stores and robot stores generating RMB 1.471 billion and RMB 315 million, respectively, up 24.7% and 16.2% YoY [1][7] - Online channels accounted for 24.0% of revenue, with key platforms like Tmall and Douyin showing strong growth [1][7] - Wholesale and other channels grew 90.8% YoY to RMB 324 million, driven by Pop Mart City Park [1][7] Overseas Markets - Revenue surged 259.6% YoY to RMB 1.351 billion [1][6] - Offline channels grew 397.3% YoY, contributing 20.8% of revenue, with retail stores and robot stores generating RMB 894 million and RMB 53 million, respectively [2][7] - Online channels grew 335.4% YoY to RMB 247 million, with platforms like Lazada and Shopee showing strong performance [2][7] - Southeast Asia contributed 41.1% of overseas revenue, followed by East Asia and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan at 35.4% [6] IP Performance - Artist IP contributed 81% of revenue, generating RMB 3.69 billion in H1 2024, up 70.4% YoY [8] - Top IPs: MOLLY (RMB 782 million, 17.2% of revenue), THE MONSTERS (RMB 627 million, 13.7%), and SKULLPANDA (RMB 575 million, 12.6%) [8] - MOLLY revenue grew 90.1% YoY, THE MONSTERS surged 292.2%, and SKULLPANDA increased 9.2% [8] Product Categories - Handicrafts (blind boxes) accounted for 58.3% of revenue, growing 30.2% YoY [9] - MEGA products grew 141.9% YoY, contributing 12.9% of revenue [9] - Plush toys and derivatives grew 993.6% and 77.5% YoY, respectively [9] Profitability - Gross margin improved to 64.0%, up 3.6pp YoY, driven by cost control, supplier bargaining power, and higher overseas sales [2][9] - Net profit margin rose 3.2pp to 20.3% [2][9] Expansion Plans - Pop Mart plans to open 30-40 new stores in Southeast Asia and North America in H2 2024 [10] - The company aims to enhance online channel penetration and collaborate with KOLs to boost IP visibility [10] - Supply chain management will be strengthened to support global operations [10]