银行股近期有所调整，市场看法出现分歧。银行股属于A股的核心资产，一定涨幅之后的调整有其必然 性，但不应该盲目看空。毕竟银行股的价值摆在那里，仍然是价值投资者的核心标的。 银行股此轮调整的直接诱因，可归结为市场情绪的阶段性波动与资金配置的再平衡。前期银行股在稳健 业绩与低估值修复的双重驱动下，累积了一定涨幅，部分资金选择获利了结，导致短期抛压增加。同 时，A股市场整体风格切换，资金流向成长赛道，进一步加剧了银行股的资金分流。 当然，投资银行股也需关注潜在风险，如区域经济分化导致的资产质量差异、金融科技冲击下的业务转 型压力等。但这些风险更多是结构性的，可通过精选个股、分散配置等方式有效规避，而非否定整个板 块的投资价值。 总之，银行股的短期调整，本质上是市场对核心资产的一次压力测试。对于认同价值投资理念的投资者 而言，银行股以其业绩确定性、估值安全边际与分红稳定性，仍是A股市场中不可多得的优质选择。 随着2025年中期报告的公布，业绩和成长性优良的银行股仍然具有长期持有的价值，而且中报的发布将 会消除投资者心中的不确定性，这也为投资者放心持有提供了更多心理支持。 然而，这些因素更多属于短期扰动，而非长期趋势的转 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in A-shares is experiencing a "small bull market" with 29 out of 42 listed banks showing gains as of July 28, driven by multiple positive factors and expected to present a structural market trend in the future [1][3][7] Group 1: Market Performance - On July 28, banks like Qilu Bank and Qingdao Bank saw significant intraday gains, with Qilu Bank rising over 5% and Qingdao Bank over 3% [1][3] - Year-to-date, the banking sector has shown a steady upward trend, with banks like Qingdao Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Xiamen Bank achieving over 30% gains [3][4] - Despite a brief fluctuation in July, the overall upward trend remains supported by low valuations and high dividend yields [3][4] Group 2: Fundamental Improvements - The banking sector's asset quality has improved significantly, with a decrease in non-performing loan ratios and stable provision coverage ratios [4][6] - The economic recovery expectations have alleviated net interest margin pressures, leading to a steady rebound in profitability [4][6] Group 3: Policy and Valuation Support - Regulatory support for the banking sector, including liquidity release and optimized regulatory assessments, has created a favorable external environment [4][5] - Long-standing low valuations of bank stocks, with price-to-book ratios generally below 1, are expected to undergo a correction as market risk appetite increases [4][5] Group 4: Capital Inflows - Continuous inflows of long-term funds, particularly from insurance capital seeking stable returns, have bolstered the banking sector [5][6] - The expansion of passive funds and foreign capital inflows since Q2 have further supported the upward movement of bank stocks [5][6] Group 5: Positive Feedback Loop - Rising bank stock prices enhance banks' financing capabilities, reducing equity financing costs and improving credit image [6][7] - The increase in core capital through convertible bonds can enhance banks' credit expansion capabilities, ultimately benefiting the real economy [7] Group 6: Future Outlook - Analysts predict a structural market trend for the banking sector, with a focus on banks with strong asset quality and profitability [7][8] - The second half of 2025 is expected to see a fluctuating upward trend in the banking sector, with particular attention on low-valuation banks and those with strong fundamentals [7][8]

Core Points - The case of the missing 295 million yuan deposit has seen new developments, with Nanjing Koyuan Smart Technology Group Co., Ltd. receiving 231 million yuan from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Nantong Branch [1][5] - The case, which has been ongoing for about four years, involves a dispute over a deposit that was pledged as collateral for a third-party company, Nantong Ruihao International Trade Co., Ltd., which failed to repay its debts [2][3] Summary by Sections Case Background - Koyuan Smart's wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanjing Koyuan Smart Energy Investment Co., Ltd., deposited 345 million yuan in the bank between July 2020 and July 2021, but 295 million yuan was pledged as collateral for Nantong Ruihao's bank acceptance bills [1][3] - The issue came to light when Koyuan Smart announced in November 2021 that it could not redeem its deposits due to the collateral arrangement [3] Legal Proceedings - The court recognized the case as a criminal matter involving forgery and fraud, with the bank's risk management practices being called into question [4][6] - As of July 2023, Koyuan Smart received 231 million yuan from the bank after applying for enforcement of the court's judgment [5][6] Recent Developments - On July 16, 2023, the bank filed a new lawsuit against Koyuan Smart Energy Investment, claiming damages due to alleged negligence in the deposit management process [6][8] - The bank accused Koyuan Smart of receiving kickbacks amounting to 40.67 million yuan, which it claims contributed to the loss of the deposit [6][7] Legal Analysis - Legal experts suggest that the bank must prove Koyuan Smart's negligence, while Koyuan Smart can argue that the fraud was committed by external parties [7][10] - The distinction between the current lawsuit and previous cases indicates that it does not constitute a counterclaim or duplicate litigation [8][10]

Core Points - The case of the missing 295 million yuan deposit has seen new developments, with Nanjing Koyuan Smart Technology Group Co., Ltd. receiving 231 million yuan from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Nantong Branch [1][2][9] - The case, which has been ongoing for about four years, involves a significant amount of funds being pledged as collateral for a third-party company, Nantong Ruihao International Trade Co., Ltd., which failed to repay its debts [5][10] Summary by Sections Case Background - Between July 2020 and July 2021, Koyuan Smart's wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanjing Koyuan Smart Energy Investment Co., Ltd., deposited 345 million yuan in fixed-term deposits at the bank, with 295 million yuan being pledged as collateral for Nantong Ruihao's bank acceptance bills [1][5][6] - The issue came to light when Koyuan Smart was unable to redeem the 40 million yuan deposit that matured in November 2021, leading to inquiries that revealed the larger issue of the 295 million yuan being pledged without their knowledge [6][7] Legal Proceedings - The judicial authorities recognized the case as a criminal matter involving forgery and fraud, with the bank's risk management practices being called into question [8][12] - In July 2024, the court ruled in favor of Koyuan Smart, ordering the bank to pay the principal and overdue interest, but both parties appealed the decision [8][9] Recent Developments - On July 16, 2024, the bank filed a new lawsuit against Koyuan Smart, claiming damages due to alleged negligence in the handling of the deposit [10][11] - The bank's actions have sparked discussions about whether this constitutes a counterclaim or a new lawsuit, with legal experts clarifying that it is a separate legal action [14][16] Financial Implications - The bank's claim includes accusations of Koyuan Smart receiving kickbacks amounting to 40.67 million yuan, which could complicate the legal landscape and financial responsibilities [10][12] - The ongoing litigation raises questions about the bank's liability and the potential for shared responsibility due to the circumstances surrounding the deposit's pledge [12][13]

Group 1 - The core event was a unique performance titled "Zhuo Xin Growth Season - July Adventure Circus Event" organized by SPDB Jinan Branch, showcasing a blend of traditional art and financial services [1][2] - Over 260 clients attended the event, which featured high-difficulty performances by the Shandong Acrobatic Troupe, including contortionists, plate spinners, and aerial acts, highlighting the charm of acrobatic art and the vitality of traditional culture [1][2] - The event also included financial literacy promotion, where bank staff distributed brochures and provided one-on-one explanations on topics such as preventing telecom fraud and protecting personal information, enhancing clients' financial security awareness [1] Group 2 - This event is part of a series of celebrations by SPDB Jinan Branch, aiming to provide clients with a close-up experience of traditional acrobatic art while integrating financial knowledge dissemination [2] - The bank plans to continue its customer-centric approach by launching more innovative and content-rich activities to enhance service quality and client experience in the future [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Anti - involution policies affect commodity prices, shock the market's inflation expectations, and cause a significant adjustment in the bond market. Credit bond yields rise with interest rates, and most credit spreads widen, with secondary and perpetual (二永) bonds showing large fluctuations and high spread increases. Fund companies with the most unstable liability ends sell significantly, while insurance companies increase their buying efforts, and bank wealth management remains relatively stable. The trading enthusiasm for medium - and long - term bonds such as urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and 二永 bonds remains high [2]. - It is too early to worry about negative feedback, with a very low probability. Market learning has improved the ability to respond, and there has been no change in macro - expectations. Moreover, bank wealth management's increasing consideration of liquidity in its configuration can prevent negative feedback [3]. - The asset shortage pattern remains unchanged and may even intensify. Interest rates may have short - term adjustments but do not support continuous and significant adjustments. Once interest rates stabilize, credit is likely to stabilize. After the market adjustment, it will be more difficult to further compress credit spreads compared to previous lows, and credit spreads are more likely to fluctuate. Investors need to seize phased trading opportunities [4]. - Investors should focus on coupon - bearing assets, and consider both coupon and trading operations for long - term bonds. For trading strategies, medium - and long - term 二永 bonds are recommended; for allocation strategies, sinking investment in urban investment bonds is still recommended. Wait for trading opportunities for ultra - long - term bonds [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review: Significant Correction, Noticeable Widening of 二永 Bond Spreads 3.1.1 Market Performance - This week, the credit bond market significantly corrected, and credit spreads widened. The stock market strengthened, and the bond market significantly corrected. Credit bond yields generally rose, especially for medium - and long - term 二永 bonds, which increased by over 10bp, with the 10Y 二永 bond correcting by up to 14.5bp. Most credit spreads widened, with 二永 bonds seeing more significant increases, while spreads of some medium - and long - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds of certain grades slightly narrowed [10]. - From a daily perspective, urban investment bond yields generally rose, with the adjustment amplitude first increasing and then decreasing, reaching a daily correction high on Thursday. From Monday to Tuesday, long - term 二永 bonds led the yield increase, but the overall amplitude was relatively small. From Wednesday to Thursday, the yield increase continued to expand, with long - term 二永 bonds correcting by over 5bp on Thursday and short - term bonds increasing by about 4bp. The long - and short - term yields of urban investment bonds and medium - term notes also increased by 3.5bp - 5bp. On Friday, the market continued to decline, but the amplitude narrowed. Credit spreads showed a divergent trend. Affected by the different adjustment speeds of credit bonds and interest - rate bonds, the spreads of 二永 bonds, known as "interest - rate amplifiers," generally widened, while the spreads of less - liquid urban investment bonds and medium - term notes were still slightly compressed in the early stage and widened on Friday [16]. 3.1.2 Insurance Continues to Allocate, Funds Sell on a Large Scale - Insurance companies' credit bond allocation remains strong. This week, insurance companies continued to be net buyers, with a net buying scale of 12.563 billion yuan, a 38.7% increase from the previous week. The net buying volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds over 5 years was 6.75 billion yuan, with the increase intensity remaining basically the same as last week [18]. - Funds sold credit bonds significantly this week, with a selling scale of 22.578 billion yuan. The net selling volume within 5Y was 12.738 billion yuan, and the net selling volume over 5Y was 7.474 billion yuan [18]. - Bank wealth management scale slightly increased. As of July 20, the bank wealth management scale was 31.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.06 trillion yuan from the previous weekend. This week, the net buying scales of wealth management and other product categories for credit bonds were 15.301 billion yuan and 13.078 billion yuan respectively, with month - on - month changes of 15.80% and 39.13% [21][22]. 3.1.3 Transaction Proportion: Decrease in Low - Rating Transaction Proportion - The transaction proportion of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and 二永 bonds with a remaining term of over 3 years was 30%, 29%, and 72% respectively, indicating that the transaction proportion of medium - and long - term bonds remained high. For urban investment bonds, the proportion of transactions under 3 years remained basically the same as last week, with the 3 - 5Y transaction proportion decreasing by 2 percentage points and the over - 5Y proportion increasing by 2 percentage points. For industrial bonds, the proportion of transactions within 1 year decreased by 1 percentage point, the 1 - 3Y proportion decreased by 2 percentage points, and the 3 - 5Y proportion increased by 3 percentage points. For 二永 bonds, the proportion of transactions within 1 year decreased by 1 percentage point, the 1 - 3Y proportion increased by 2 percentage points, and the 3 - 5Y proportion decreased by 3 percentage points [28]. - The proportion of low - rating transactions of non - financial credit bonds decreased this week. The proportion of transactions of urban investment bonds with a rating of AA(2) and below decreased by 1 percentage point from last week, the proportion of industrial bonds with a rating of AA and below decreased by 1 percentage point month - on - month, and the proportion of 二永 bonds with a rating of AA and below decreased by 3 percentage points from last week [29]. 3.2 Market Outlook: Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities 3.2.1 Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities - Reasons for market adjustment: With the continuous implementation of anti - involution policies, commodity futures prices have risen significantly, affecting the market's inflation expectations. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index, which reflects commodity price trends, has also risen significantly. Historically, this index has a certain forward - looking predictive effect on PPI. By observing the term structure of interest - rate swaps, indicators such as IRS FR007 5 - year - 1 - year and 1 - year - FR007 have quickly turned positive, indicating a change in the market's inflation expectations [31][33]. - Regarding the concern of negative feedback: It is too early to worry about negative feedback, with a very low probability. Market adjustments in September 2024 and March 2025 were more significant than the current one, but no obvious negative feedback occurred. The key lies in the increasing consideration of liquidity in bank wealth management's configuration. Since April this year, the absolute amount and proportion of inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) allocation have been at historically high levels, enabling wealth management to handle market fluctuations. As long as bank wealth management remains stable, the key link of market negative feedback can be stopped [38][40]. - Analysis of tight funds: The funding situation tightened on Thursday this week, leading to a higher market adjustment amplitude. The tightening on Thursday may be due to banks' liability - side issues. From the perspective of large banks' deposit - loan spreads, the deposit - loan spreads of large banks generally decline seasonally in July. After the significant reduction of deposit interest rates in May, large banks face the pressure of term - deposit maturity transfer, resulting in relatively large liability pressure. A low deposit - loan spread means reduced stability of funding rates, which are more dependent on the central bank's liquidity injection. Any daily misalignment in the central bank's liquidity injection can significantly impact funding rates [41][42]. - Future trends: The asset shortage pattern remains unchanged and may even intensify. Interest rates may have short - term adjustments, but the current macro - environment does not support continuous and significant interest - rate adjustments. The impact of anti - involution policies on inflation expectations has been fully priced in the short term through the significant rise in commodity prices. For credit bonds, it will be more difficult to further compress credit spreads below previous lows this year. Credit spreads are more likely to fluctuate, and investors need to seize phased small - band opportunities [50][56]. 3.2.2 Science and Technology Innovation Bonds Continue to Contribute Net Financing to the Market - In July, non - financial credit bond financing performed well, with the net financing exceeding the levels of the same month in the previous two years, reaching 347.9 billion yuan. The supply of long - term credit bonds has increased. Recently, the sentiment for extending the duration of credit bonds has been positive. Although the issuance duration in July has decreased month - on - month, there is still room for extending the duration [57][59]. 3.3 What to Buy in Credit? 3.3.1 Focus on High - Grade 二永 Bonds for Trading, Weak - Quality Urban Investment Bonds for Coupon - The price - comparison of short - term 二永 bonds is positive, while that of medium - and long - term 二永 bonds is negative. Considering different investor needs, high - grade trading strategies are recommended to focus on 二永 bonds, and low - grade coupon strategies are recommended to focus on urban investment bonds. This week, the price - comparison advantage of short - term AAA second - tier capital bonds over medium - term notes remained positive, and the price - comparison of long - term AAA second - tier capital bonds with medium - term notes fluctuated around 0. The price - comparison of short - term urban investment bonds with medium - term notes is positive, and the price - comparison of long - term low - grade urban investment bonds has quickly recovered to the historical central level. Urban investment bonds still have a price - comparison advantage over medium - term notes, but the difference is not significant. Considering the bond - selection scope, urban investment bonds are still preferred [62][64]. 3.3.2 General Credit Coupon is More Advantageous - Currently, the proportion of urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 19.8%, that of non - financial industrial bonds is 10.8%, and that of 二永 bonds is 6.8%. From the perspective of coupon - based bond selection, general credit offers a wider bond - selection space. For urban investment bonds, investors can consider both coupon and trading operations for the long - term, and can continue to participate in short - term high - coupon varieties. For industrial bonds, investors can focus on important local state - owned real - estate enterprises among real - estate developers, such as Shoukai and Jianfa Real Estate; among non - real - estate entities, focus on China Minsheng Bank, Jizhong Energy, and Bohai Bank [68][72]. 3.3.3 Statistics of Primary Issuance - Relevant data shows the weekly net financing and cumulative net financing of various credit bonds, including urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, 二永 bonds, and other financial bonds from December 30, 2024, to July 27, 2025 [77]. 3.3.4 Details of Secondary Valuation Changes - No detailed information provided in the content

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector [1] Core Insights - The proportion of bank stocks held by active equity funds increased to 4.88% in Q2 2025, marking a 1.13 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, driven by both volume and price increases [2][3] - The banking sector's performance outpaced the broader market, with A-share banks rising by 11.23% in Q2 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices by 10.7 and 8.25 percentage points respectively [2] - The report highlights a significant increase in holdings of joint-stock banks and quality regional banks, with notable increases in positions for institutions like China Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank, and others [2][3] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, the number of bank stocks held by active funds reached 4.88%, the second highest since Q1 2021 [2] - The total number of bank shares held by active funds increased by 6.64 billion shares, reaching 48.17 billion shares [2] - The market capitalization of index funds holding bank stocks rose by 27.7% to 133.385 billion yuan, with an increase of 16.3 billion shares [3] Sector Performance - The active fund's allocation to bank stocks saw a quarter-on-quarter increase, although the sector still has the largest allocation gap among 31 sectors, with a shortfall of 7.8% [3] - The report notes that while state-owned banks saw a slight decrease in allocation, joint-stock and regional banks experienced significant increases due to improved fundamentals and lower valuations [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on state-owned banks and stable joint-stock banks, recommending specific banks such as China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank for their long-term investment value [8] - It emphasizes the importance of banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality, indicating that these banks still offer absolute returns [8] - The report also highlights the potential for banks with low valuations to improve their return on equity, suggesting a focus on banks like Pudong Development Bank [8] Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several banks, with recommendations for Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and others based on their projected performance [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking sector Core Insights - The banking wealth management market showed stable growth in the first half of 2025, with a total scale of 30.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.53% [1] - Cash management products continued to decline, with a scale of 6.4 trillion yuan, down 14.55% year-on-year, attributed to lower deposit rates and regulatory policies [1] - The market share of wealth management companies increased, with 32 companies holding 89.61% of the market by the end of Q2 2025, up 1.8 percentage points from the end of the previous year [2] - The asset allocation in wealth management products shifted, with a decrease in credit bond allocation and a notable increase in public fund allocation, which rose to 4.2% [3] - The average annualized yield of wealth management products was 2.12%, a decrease of 53 basis points compared to 2024, indicating a low-interest-rate environment [4] - The proportion of sales through parent banks has decreased to around 65%, as companies expand their distribution channels [5][8] Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Management Market Overview - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total scale of wealth management products reached 30.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.53% [1] - Cash management products saw a significant decline, with a scale of 6.4 trillion yuan, down 14.55% year-on-year [1] 2. Market Structure - The market share of wealth management companies increased to 89.61%, reflecting a concentration of market power among leading firms [2] 3. Asset Allocation - The allocation to credit bonds decreased, while public funds saw a significant increase, indicating a shift in investment strategy [3] 4. Yield Trends - The average annualized yield of wealth management products fell to 2.12%, continuing a downward trend since 2023 [4] 5. Distribution Channels - The share of sales through parent banks has decreased to approximately 65%, as firms diversify their distribution strategies [5][8] 6. Sector Outlook - The banking sector is expected to benefit from policy catalysts, with specific banks like Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and others highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]

摘要 折价幅度靠前 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"20 淮南建发 MTN003"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只个券中， "23 黄石城发 MTN005"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"19 昆租 02"估值价格偏离幅度最 大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"24 浦发银行二级资本债 01B"估值价格偏离程度最大。 风险提示 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 AA 城投债（主体评级） | 债券名称 | 剩余期限 | 估值价格 | 估值净价 | 估值收益率 | 当日估值 | 票面利率 | 隐含 | 主体 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (年) | 偏离(%) | (元) | 偏离(bp) | 收益(%) | (%) | 评级 | 评级 | | | 20 淮南建发 MTN003 | 0.28 | -0.59 | 100.64 | 8.18 | 1.73 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit card market is undergoing a significant transformation from "scale competition" to "value deepening," with banks actively shedding inefficient products and focusing on enhancing core competitiveness through digital upgrades and self-controlled ecosystems [1][3][4]. Industry Adjustments - Several banks, including Bank of China and Citic Bank, have announced the discontinuation of certain credit card products, particularly co-branded cards, effective from August 31, 2025 [2][3]. - The adjustments are driven by the need to optimize product structures and improve service quality in response to changing market conditions and consumer demands [2][3]. Market Dynamics - Over 80% of credit card features are highly similar, leading to minimal differentiation among products [3]. - The penetration rate of consumer credit through platforms like Alipay and JD.com reached 38% in 2024, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and a diminishing role for banks as mere funding channels [3]. - The credit card delinquency rate rose to 2.1% in 2024, with some banks exceeding 5%, highlighting the imbalance between revenue and risk [3]. Regulatory Influence - New regulations, such as the notice issued in January 2024, require banks to eliminate products with a "sleeping card" rate exceeding 20%, prompting many banks to stop issuing underperforming credit cards [4]. Strategic Focus - Banks are shifting their focus from traditional credit card offerings to creating a comprehensive ecosystem that integrates various consumer needs, such as shopping, travel, and entertainment [6][7]. - The emphasis is on building self-controlled ecosystems and enhancing user engagement through innovative product offerings tailored to younger consumers [6][8]. Future Trends - The industry is expected to evolve towards a multi-dimensional development approach, including ecosystem building, technological empowerment, and segmented customer operations [9]. - The trend indicates a move away from physical cards towards digital financial services, with credit cards becoming integrated into broader financial solutions [10].