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摩根大通:央行下调政策利率符合预期 首选建行和招行
news flash· 2025-05-08 04:45
摩根大通发表研究报告指,中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局等上日(7日)举行联合新闻发布会, 宣布推出一篮子稳市场金融政策,预期将带来正面影响,人行将通过降准和扩大各类再贷款工具,向市 场注入约2.1万亿元,政策利率下调10个基点,符合预期,结构性货币政策工具利率下调25个基点将降 低银行的债务成本,预期流动性支持增加及利率下降,可缓解银行对相关贷款的资产质量方面的担忧。 摩通表示,一篮子稳市场金融政策出台后对净息差预测的整体影响不大,预料流动性注入和利率下降可 能会压低中国十年期国债收益率,为银行利差带来保障,在内银行业中首选建设银行(601939)和招商 银行(600036)。 ...
政策强化预期,短期市场上行,A500ETF基金(512050)冲击4连涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 03:22
5月7日,国新办举行新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况,会上央行、金融监管总局、证监会提出具体政策措施。 截至2025年5月8日 10:46,中证A500指数(000510)上涨0.35%,成分股新易盛(300502)上涨10.38%,中航成飞(302132)上涨9.87%,盈峰环境(000967)上涨 9.66%,中际旭创(300308)上涨7.24%,甘李药业(603087)上涨6.97%。A500ETF基金(512050)上涨0.54%, 冲击4连涨。流动性方面,A500ETF基金盘中换手 9.45%,成交15.69亿元。拉长时间看,截至5月7日,A500ETF基金近1年日均成交37.45亿元,居可比基金第一。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 0.63% | 4.28% | | 300750 | 宁德时代 | 3.00% | 2.96% | | 601318 | 中国平安 | 1.93% | 2.46% | | 600036 | 招商银行 | 2.38% | 2.37% | ...
去年,招行居然被反超了?!
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-08 02:47
出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 刘国辉 在今年一季度,招行的业绩相比于兴业和中信银行,也没有明显优势,大差不差。 看来,逆势之下,强者并未恒强。 招行、兴业、中信三家银行体量接近,已经坐稳股份行前三甲的位置,也都是银行业规模前十的银行。 三家银行都有自己的特色,招行的零售和财富管理优势独步天下,兴业银行和中信银行都以对公业务见 长,在投行业务上也有相对优势,此外积极向零售转型。 图片来源 | AI制图 四月底,A股上市银行2024年报以及2025年一季报披露完毕。未上市的银行也大多发布了2024年业绩。 对比一下12家股份制银行在2024年的财报表现,有亮眼业绩的是兴业银行和中信银行,均实现了营收与 净利润的双增,资产规模增长也相对较好。而招商银行已是连续两年营收下滑,而且还有吃老本之嫌。 其他股份行中,浦发、民生、光大、平安、广发银行都处在营收下滑的状态,利润水平可以调节,意义 不太大。华夏银行、浙商银行、渤海银行、恒丰银行实现营收与净利润双增,但体量较小,不太有可比 性。 | 银行 | 资产规模(万 亿) | 资产规模增速 | 营收 | 营收增速 | 净利润 | 净利润增速 | | --- | --- | ...
金融调研②“非硝烟”之争:谁是银行人才储备座上宾?
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-05-08 02:36
5月7日,国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽在国新办发布会上表示,推动建立信贷支持科技创新的专项机制,支持银行有序设立科技金融专门机构,鼓励探 索长周期的科技贷款绩效考核制度。 就在一个月前,国家金融监督管理总局、科技部和国家发展改革委联合印发《银行业保险业科技金融高质量发展实施方案》,其中提出"鼓励加快引进具有 科技、产业背景的复合型人才,完善科技金融人才培育机制""优化内部考核和激励约束机制"。 政策导向之下,银行业正加速调整人才战略和绩效考核机制。南都湾财社记者通过走访调研了解到,目前银行科技支行对既懂金融又懂科技的复合型人才重 视程度明显提升,有银行科技支行相关负责人更是直言其所在支行"新入职员工以工科类居多,金融专业的反倒不多"。而在绩效考核上,银行也纷纷制定了 内部的尽职免责制度。不过,业内人士指出,由于缺乏统一的量化标准,尽职免责制度的落实依然面临挑战。商业银行还需进一步细化科技信贷业务尽职免 责的具体措施,并树立积极正面的绩效考核导向,鼓励和保护科技信贷业务人员的积极性。基于此,南都湾财社"广东科技支行创新力深调研"走进科技支行 系列报道推出第二篇,探讨科技金融人才培养与考核问题。 人才培育: 有 ...
降准降息落地,多举措稳经济
HTSC· 2025-05-08 02:25
证券研究报告 银行 降准降息落地,多举措稳经济 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 07 日│中国内地 动态点评 降准降息落地,多举措稳经济 5 月 7 日央行等三部门推出政策组合拳,涵盖数量型+价格型+结构型政策三 大类。关税扰动下,本轮政策组合拳聚焦以政策的确定性应对外部环境的不 确定性,延续 4 月政治局会议基调。关注点包括:1)降准 0.5pct,提供流 动性约 1 万亿元,降低银行资金成本。2)政策利率下调带动 LPR 下行约 0.1pct,同时引导存款利率下调。3)出台多项结构型货币政策,支持科技 创新等重点领域。4)金融支持科创力度加码,金融资产投资公司近期将陆 续批复;5)推动险资增量资金入市,有望进一步增配高股息银行标的。政 策预期向好,推荐个股:1)质优个股,如渝农 AH、重庆 AH、成都、上海、 招行 AH;2)港股大行股息优势突出、估值性价比高,如工行 H、农行 H。 降准力度较大,呵护银行息差 央行宣布自 5 月 15 日起降准 0.5pct,向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿元。 本轮降准 0.5pct 后,存款准备金率平均水平由 6.6%下降至 6.2%,向市场 注入长期流动性约 1 ...
每经品牌100指数年度运行报告(上篇):踏浪前行,屡创新高!
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-07 12:38
每经记者|刘明涛 每经编辑|赵云 经历风雨,方能见彩虹! 近一年来,新"国九条"强调市值管理和分红监管,推动低估值央国企的估值修复,政策对"新质生产力"的重视为科 技类企业品牌成长提供战略机遇。 2024年5月以前,A股经历了一轮由政策驱动的估值修复行情,但基本面始终未同步改善,进入去年二季度,国内工 业生产、固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额等核心经济指标增速均低于预期,导致市场对企业盈利前景的担忧加 剧,引发市场出现持续调整,每经品牌100指数也在千点"门口"止住了连涨势头,出现回调。 到了6月中旬,每经品牌100指数迎来成分股更替,双汇发展、立讯精密、中国重汽等各行业龙头公司悉数入围,这 些行业翘楚,具有稳定的增长和盈利能力,为指数带来新的活力。 不过,进入2024年三季度,美联储因通胀回落不及预期,释放"高利率将长期维持"的信号,新兴市场面临资金流出 压力,这也导致外资对A股的风险偏好下降,市场交投降至冰点,单日成交额一度跌破万亿元。 但随着"924"政策组合拳推出,市场悲观预期直接扭转,一波十连涨行情,每经品牌100指数从820点直接飙涨到最 高的1146点,短短10个交易日,最大涨幅近40%——11 ...
金融行业事件点评:降准降息,股票投资的风险因子进一步调降10%
Dongguan Securities· 2025-05-07 09:27
| | | | 金融行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行:超配(维持) | | | 降准降息,股票投资的风险因子进一步调降 10% | | 保险:超配(维持) | | | 金融行业事件点评 | | 2025 年 5 7 日 | 月 | 分析师:吴晓彤(SAC | 执业证书编号:S0340524070001) | | | | 电话:0769-22119302 邮箱 | wuxiaotong@dgzq.com.cn | 事件: 5 月 7 日,国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会,介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情 况,央行表示将推出降准降息等十项货币政策措施,金融监管总局近期将推出 8 项增量政策。 点评: 外围扰动下,国内政策加码必要性增强。随着各项政策继续发力显效,我国一季度在经济增长、就业、 物价以及国际收支四大方面实现平稳起步、良好开局。但同时也要看到,国内有效需求增长动力不足, 经济持续回升向好的基础仍需进一步巩固,特别是目前外部环境更趋复杂严峻,美国滥施关税带来诸 多不确定性,国内经济持续回升任务比较繁重。为加强逆周期调节,稳定经济大盘,国内政策保障仍 需进一步 ...
业绩略有波动,区域行韧性强
HTSC· 2025-05-07 05:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [7] Core Insights - The banking sector experienced a slight decline in revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with year-on-year changes of -1.7% in revenue, -2.0% in PPOP, and -1.2% in net profit attributable to shareholders, primarily due to declining interest margins and bond market volatility [12][23] - Despite the overall decline, certain regional banks showed resilience, with a focus on narrowing interest margin declines and improving deposit growth [12][3] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in high-quality stocks such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and China Merchants Bank, as well as Hong Kong-listed banks with attractive dividend yields [5][10] Summary by Sections Operating Overview - The banking sector's revenue and profit growth have declined, with major banks experiencing negative growth rates in net profit [12] - Interest margin performance varied, with a narrowing decline and ongoing optimization of funding costs [12][23] Profitability Breakdown - The cumulative net interest margin for listed banks was 1.43%, a decrease of 10 basis points from 2024, but the decline was less severe compared to the previous year [2][12] - Non-interest income saw a decline of 3.2% year-on-year, influenced by high base effects from 2024 [2][13] Asset and Liability Insights - Total assets and liabilities of listed banks grew by 7.5% and 7.7% year-on-year, respectively, indicating stable growth [3][14] - Loan growth remained steady at 8.0%, with new loans amounting to 7.5 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous year [3][14] Risk Perspective - The overall non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved slightly to 1.23%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 238% [4][15] - The annualized NPL generation rate was 0.64%, indicating some hidden risk indicators [4][15] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that Q1 2025 may represent the low point for the year, with expectations for recovery in the latter part of the year [5][19] - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 0.65, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [5][19]
国企共赢ETF(159719)盘中涨近1%,大湾区ETF(512970)冲击3连涨!山东国企上市公司市值管理“榜单”出炉
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 03:39
消息面上,截至2024年末,山东省国企上市公司中仅46.34%的市值实现增长,千亿元市值国企仅1家增长。为提升市值管理水平,山东省国资委与山东证监 局签署合作备忘录,鼓励国企通过增持、回购、加大分红等方式提升投资价值。 截至2025年5月7日 11:09,国企共赢ETF(159719)上涨0.54%,最新价报1.49元。流动性方面,国企共赢ETF盘中换手2.2%,成交425.47万元。拉长时间看,截 至5月6日,国企共赢ETF近1年日均成交1783.21万元。 截至2025年5月7日11:07,中证粤港澳大湾区发展主题指数(931000)上涨0.25%,成分股华利集团(300979)上涨4.64%,广东宏大(002683)上涨4.52%,欧派家居 (603833)上涨2.70%,科达制造(600499)上涨2.65%,海格通信(002465)上涨2.26%。大湾区ETF(512970)上涨1.02%,冲击3连涨。最新价报1.18元。规模方 面,截至5月6日,大湾区ETF最新规模达6700.60万元,创近1月新高。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...
招商银行(600036):利息、财富收入正增,存款成本改善
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-07 02:44
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's revenue in Q1 2025 decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 2.1%. However, net interest income increased by 1.9%, and non-interest income grew by 10.6%, with wealth management fee income being a key highlight, growing by 10.5% [2][6]. - The cost of liabilities is declining, with the deposit interest rate decreasing to 1.29% in Q1, reinforcing the company's core advantage of low funding costs [2][6]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 1 basis point to 0.94% at the end of Q1, and the provision coverage ratio fell by 2 percentage points to 410% [2][6]. - The new NPL generation rate for Q1 was 1.00%, down by 5 basis points compared to the full year of 2024, primarily due to a significant decline in corporate NPL generation [2][6]. - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio remains the highest in the industry, indicating solid internal growth advantages and significant investment value [2][6]. Summary by Sections Performance - The company's Q1 net interest income growth turned positive, supported by a low base from the previous year and a smaller-than-expected decline in interest margins. Non-interest income decreased by 10.6%, with a 2.5% drop in middle-income sources [12]. - The profit aspect showed a reduction in credit impairment provisions year-on-year, although the cost-to-income ratio and tax rate increased slightly [12]. Scale - Corporate lending drove growth, with loans increasing by 3.4% compared to the beginning of the period, mainly due to a 6.5% increase in corporate loans and a 9.8% rise in bills. Retail loan growth was slower at 0.4% due to a contraction in credit card loans [12]. - Deposits grew by 2.5%, with the proportion of demand deposits remaining stable at 50.5% of the average daily balance in Q1, up 0.1 percentage points from the full year of 2024 [12]. Interest Margin - The net interest margin stood at 1.91%, with a quarterly decline of 3 basis points, which is better than the expected decline of 7 basis points for the full year of 2024. The absolute level of interest margin remains advantageous compared to other large banks [12]. - The loan yield was 3.53%, down 17 basis points, reflecting the impact of repricing and lower rates on new loans [12]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income saw a decline of 10.6%, with middle-income sources down by 2.5%. However, wealth management fee income turned positive, growing by 10.5% in Q1, with significant increases in sales of mutual funds and trusts [12]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio and new NPL generation rate showed improvement, with the new generation rate at 1.00%, down from the previous year. The corporate NPL generation decreased significantly, while retail NPL generation is still on the rise [12]. - The NPL ratio for real estate corporate loans was 4.79%, showing a slight increase but remaining stable overall [12]. Investment Recommendation - The company has a strong capital position with no dilution pressure from refinancing. The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio remains stable at 14.9%, the highest in the industry. The expected dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 35% [12]. - The decline in Q1 performance was mainly due to investment income, while core business revenues from interest and wealth management showed positive growth. The company is expected to maintain positive profit and dividend growth for the year [12].