Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company leads the industry in sales scale, with a notable increase in sales price [1][2]. - The company is focusing its land acquisition in first and second-tier cities, with a significant acceleration in investment pace [2]. - The government’s policies are expected to support market recovery, which may benefit the company’s performance in the coming years [3]. Sales Performance - In February, the company achieved a signed area of 782,900 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.39%, while the signed amount reached 15.995 billion yuan, an increase of 2.38% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to February, the signed area was 1.5549 million square meters, down 27.19%, and the signed amount was 34.011 billion yuan, down 5.39% [1]. - The average sales price in February was 20,430 yuan per square meter, up 23.9% year-on-year, and the average for January to February was 21,873 yuan per square meter, up 30% year-on-year [1]. Investment Activity - In February, the company added 6 new projects with a planned construction area of 613,900 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and a land acquisition amount of 12.224 billion yuan, up 226% [2]. - Cumulatively, from January to February, the company acquired 9 projects with a planned construction area of 890,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 79%, and a total land acquisition amount of approximately 16.1 billion yuan, up 330% [2]. - The company’s land acquisition intensity for January to February was 47.4%, significantly higher than the previous year's 10.4% [2]. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.016 billion yuan, 5.406 billion yuan, and 6.337 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.42 yuan, 0.45 yuan, and 0.53 yuan [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21x for 2024, 19.5x for 2025, and 16.6x for 2026 [3].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the real estate industry, particularly focusing on the current market conditions and investment strategies in the context of the Chinese real estate sector [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - The current market shows resilience in second-hand housing transaction volumes, but overall prices, especially the listing price index, are declining [1]. - The sentiment among sellers is leaning towards price reductions to stimulate sales, indicating a weak overall market [1][2]. - The market is perceived to be in a U-shaped recovery phase, currently positioned on the left side of the bottom [1]. Historical Context - A comparison is made with the U.S. housing market during the 2007-2008 crisis, noting that significant stock price recoveries for major builders occurred only after substantial improvements in the underlying fundamentals [1][2]. - The cyclical nature of real estate stocks is highlighted, with fluctuations in prices often tied to broader economic conditions and policy changes [2]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for the current year is focused on beta plays, emphasizing policy-driven opportunities rather than clear upward trends in the market [4]. - The strategy suggests that the stock price center may stabilize this year, contrasting with the continuous decline observed in previous years [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Key indicators such as the total supply of listings in Beijing have decreased from 140,000 to approximately 110,000 units, suggesting an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [5]. - The expectation is that policy measures will stabilize the market, even if they do not lead to immediate price rebounds [5]. Alpha Opportunities - Specific sectors are identified for potential alpha generation, including companies showing signs of financial recovery and those with strong operational fundamentals [6][7]. - Companies like JinDi Group are highlighted for their financial turnaround potential, particularly after successfully repaying debts [6]. Risk Assessment - The risks associated with the current market include potential delays in policy implementation and the overall cautious sentiment among investors, which could lead to further declines in sales and prices [21][22]. - Concerns about credit risks among weaker firms and the potential for broader market impacts from defaults are also noted [22]. Valuation Insights - The current low valuations of real estate stocks are analyzed, with many companies facing significant challenges related to asset quality and market perceptions [11][12]. - A model suggests that the average expected decline in property prices is around 10%, influencing the valuation of real estate companies [12][13]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term growth potential for the industry is tied to improvements in core city property prices, while non-core cities may experience a decline [20]. - The analysis indicates that leading firms with strong financial health and operational efficiency are likely to outperform in the recovery phase [21]. Additional Important Content - The discussion emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy developments and market sentiment, as these factors will significantly influence the recovery trajectory of the real estate sector [20][22]. - The potential for mergers and acquisitions as a strategy for value creation in the sector is also mentioned, particularly for firms looking to divest non-core assets [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The current policy environment recognizes the necessity of a stable and healthy real estate market for economic transformation, marking a potential turning point in the current cycle [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of various measures to stabilize the market, including reducing restrictive policies and enhancing housing supply [52][56] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Views - Real estate development is seen as crucial for economic stability, with recommendations for strong local state-owned enterprises and quality private companies such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group [6] - In property management, companies with strong market expansion capabilities and service diversification are highlighted as having long-term investment value, recommending China Resources Vientiane Life and Greentown Service [6] - The second-hand housing market is recovering faster than new housing, with recommendations for leading real estate transaction platforms like Beike [7] 2. Real Estate Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - New housing sales in 37 cities decreased by 30.5% week-on-week but increased by 11.4% year-on-year, with a total of 178 million square meters sold [13] - Second-hand housing sales in 16 cities decreased by 3.8% week-on-week but increased by 46.4% year-on-year, totaling 184.8 million square meters sold [18] - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 77.9 million square meters, with a de-stocking cycle of 16.5 months [22] 3. Market Review - The real estate sector's performance was -0.7% last week, ranking 28th among 29 sectors, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices rose by 1.4% and 2.4% respectively [42] 4. Industry Policy Tracking - The government is focused on stabilizing the real estate market through various measures, including promoting housing demand and reforming the development and financing systems [52][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company plans to enhance its valuation and shareholder returns through multiple measures, as it has triggered the requirement to formulate a valuation enhancement plan due to its stock price being below net asset value for 12 consecutive months [1][2] - The company achieved a sales amount of 323 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the industry leader, and has focused land acquisition in core cities to optimize inventory structure [3][4] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 5.016 billion yuan, 5.406 billion yuan, and 6.337 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant downward adjustment from previous estimates [4][10] Summary by Sections Valuation Enhancement Plan - The company has outlined nine specific initiatives to improve its valuation and shareholder confidence, including operational stability, diversified capital market financing, and a commitment to stable dividends [2] Sales and Market Position - In 2024, the company maintained its leading sales scale in the industry with a total sales amount of 323 billion yuan, and in the first two months of 2024, it achieved a sales amount of 34 billion yuan [3] Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to decline by 9.8% in 2024, with a further decline of 10.3% in 2025, before a slight recovery in 2026 [10] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 0.42 yuan, 0.45 yuan, and 0.53 yuan respectively, indicating a significant reduction from previous estimates [4][10]

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 05 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 保利发展（600048.SH） 根据证监会发布的上市公司市值管理指引，长期破净公司应当制定上市公 司估值提升计划。2024 年期间，公司股票已连续 12 个月内每个交易日收 盘价低于最近一个会计年度经审计的每股归属于公司普通股股东的净资 产，因此触发制定估值提升计划的要求。 公司发布的计划共包括 9 项具体举措：（1）稳经营、提质效，2024 年公司 销售规模稳居行业第一，同时拿地进一步聚焦核心城市，未来将继续推动 库存去化，优化存货结构；（2）积极开展多元资本市场融资，优化资本和 债务结构；（3）构建资本运作、资产经营、产业发展的强强联合；（4）坚 持丰厚、持续、稳定的分红，积极尝试中期分红，并且计划于 2025 年实施 中期分红；（5）适时开展股份回购、股东增持、高管增持，维护市值稳定； （6）加强经营信息披露，丰富公告发布宣传方式；（7）积极开展投资者关 系管理；（8）适时开展中长期激励计划；（9）推进并购重组，整合优质资 产，推动产业链升级。 ❑ 销售规模保持行业领先，拿地布局聚焦核心城市 2024 年公司实现商品房销售金额 3 ...

Summary of Poly Developments Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Poly Developments - **Date**: March 7, 2025 Key Points Industry and Company Performance - In January and February, Poly Developments achieved a cumulative subscription amount of 36.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40%, with a sales equity ratio maintained at 78%-79%, marking a six-year high, indicating strong sales momentum and equity control ability [2][4] - The company actively expanded, adding 9 new projects in January and February with a total value of 16.1 billion yuan, three times that of the same period last year, particularly investing 8.8 billion yuan in the Chaoyang District of Beijing, reflecting confidence in premium land in core cities [2][5] - As of the end of February, the cost of new financing liabilities decreased to 2.88%, and the overall financing cost dropped to 3.06%, indicating a healthy financial position and strong financing capability [2][7][8] Sales and Market Dynamics - In February, the overall sales rate was 40%, with first-tier cities reaching 45%, and specific cities like Sanya and Shijiazhuang performing exceptionally well at 63% and 68% respectively, highlighting the variance in sales performance across different cities [2][4] - The company maintained a strategy of destocking without significant price reductions to control losses on existing projects while enhancing its marketing capabilities to reduce reliance on channel costs [3][14] Project Expansion and Strategy - Poly Developments has maintained an aggressive land acquisition strategy since the third quarter of last year, with six projects expanded in February alone, totaling 122 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase [5][6] - The company’s expansion strategy focuses on core cities, particularly first-tier and strong second-tier cities, with a commitment to maintaining a certain scale of expansion regardless of market conditions [9][17] Financial Health and Profitability - The net profit margin for 2024 was 9%, and while a slight decline is expected in 2025 due to rising land prices, the company remains optimistic about stabilizing or slightly improving profit margins compared to 2024 [17] - The company’s total organic liabilities remain stable at over 350 billion yuan, with a stable mortgage and cash recovery situation, indicating effective financial management [7][8] Market Outlook and Customer Trends - The recent real estate market shows signs of stabilization in the second-hand housing market, with a preference for improvement-type products among buyers, particularly in first-tier cities [11][18] - New customer ratios have increased, and transaction cycles have shortened from approximately 30 days to around 20 days, although this change is not yet definitive [17][18] Asset Management and Inventory Control - The company is actively managing its inventory by promoting rental housing and optimizing asset quality to reduce impairment pressure, while also enhancing resource conversion efficiency [12][14] - The current inventory turnover rate is 40%, slightly lower than the previous month, with no significant new projects launched recently, focusing mainly on ongoing sales [10][19] Future Projections - The company anticipates a continued trend of higher new product ratios in sales, with expectations for a stable market response to new launches [16] - The issuance of convertible bonds is in progress, with regulatory approval pending, indicating ongoing efforts to strengthen financial resources [21] Additional Insights - The company emphasizes maintaining control over property management rights during joint land acquisitions to ensure project quality and operational efficiency [19][20] - The impact of special bond policies on available resources is still under evaluation, with limited projects currently benefiting from such measures [15]

证券代码：600048 证券简称：保利发展 公告编号：2025-013 关于本公司获得房地产项目的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 自公司《关于本公司获得房地产项目的公告》（公告编号 2025-007）披露以 来，公司新增加房地产项目 6 个，项目信息如下（具体位置详见附图）： 由于项目开发过程中存在各种不确定性，上述数据可能与定期报告披露的数 据存在差异，相关数据以公司定期报告为准。 特此公告。 佛山市南海区 博爱路北侧地块 图 3：天津市西青区梨双路南侧地块 天津市西青区 梨双路南侧地块 图 4：西安市雁塔区雁翔路东侧地块 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 董事会 二〇二五年三月七日 单位：平方米、万元 序号 项目名称 获取 方式 土地 用途 用地 面积 规划容积 率面积 我方需支 付价款 权益 比例 1 北京市朝阳区 朝阳北路南侧地块 招拍挂 住宅 32,154 80,830 301,665 70% 2 北京市朝阳区 朝阳路北侧地块 招拍挂 住宅 36,842 92,106 132,600 30% 3 佛 ...

证券代码：600048 证券简称：保利发展 公告编号：2025-012 2025 年 2 月，公司实现签约面积 78.29 万平方米，同比减少 17.39%；签约 金额 159.95 亿元，同比增加 2.38%。 2025 年 2 月份销售情况简报 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 特此公告。 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 董事会 二〇二五年三月七日 2025 年 1-2 月，公司实现签约面积 155.49 万平方米，同比减少 27.19%；签 约金额 340.11 亿元，同比减少 5.39%。 由于销售过程中存在各种不确定性，上述销售数据可能与定期报告披露的数 据存在差异，相关数据以公司定期报告为准。 ...

（2025 年 3 月） 2025 年第一次临时股东大会 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会须知 根据中国证券监督管理委员会《上市公司股东大会规则》和《公 司章程》的有关规定，为确保公司股东大会顺利召开，特制定会议须 知如下，望出席股东大会的全体人员遵守执行： 一、股东参加股东大会，应当认真履行其法定义务，不得侵犯其 他股东权益； 二、股东大会期间，全体出席人员应以维护股东的合法利益、确 保大会正常秩序和议事效率为原则，认真履行法定职责； 2025 年第一次临时股东大会 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会 会议资料 三、出席大会的股东依法享有发言权、咨询权、表决权等各项权 利，但需由公司统一安排发言和解答； 四、任何人不得扰乱大会的正常秩序和会议程序，会议期间请关 闭手机或将其调至振动状态。 2025 年第一次临时股东大会 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会 会议议程 一、会议时间： 现场会议召开时间：2025 年 3 月 13 日（星期四），下午 14:30 网络投票时间：采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系 统投票平台的投 ...

2025 年第一次临时股东大会 2025 年第一次临时股东大会 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会须知 根据中国证券监督管理委员会《上市公司股东大会规则》和《公 司章程》的有关规定，为确保公司股东大会顺利召开，特制定会议须 知如下，望出席股东大会的全体人员遵守执行： 一、股东参加股东大会，应当认真履行其法定义务，不得侵犯其 他股东权益； 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会 会议资料 （2025 年 3 月） 二、股东大会期间，全体出席人员应以维护股东的合法利益、确 保大会正常秩序和议事效率为原则，认真履行法定职责； 三、出席大会的股东依法享有发言权、咨询权、表决权等各项权 利，但需由公司统一安排发言和解答； 四、任何人不得扰乱大会的正常秩序和会议程序，会议期间请关 闭手机或将其调至振动状态。 2025 年第一次临时股东大会 2025 年第一次临时股东大会 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会 会议议程 一、会议时间： 现场会议召开时间：2025 年 3 月 13 日（星期四），下午 14:30 网络投票时间：采用上海证券交易所网络投票 ...