Summary of C-REITs Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese real estate industry is transitioning from new residential construction to rental asset operations, coinciding with the development of the REIT market, which may reshape the competitive landscape for developers and redefine long-term investment logic in the sector [1][3][11]. Key Points Importance of Current Developments - Since Q3 2025, favorable policies have accelerated the issuance of domestic REITs (C-REITs), expanding the range of assets and issuing entities. C-REITs are expected to become a significant asset class over the next 10 to 20 years, with a market potential of approximately $1 trillion, which is over 30 times the current size [3][9]. - The limited trading volume of C-REITs suggests that listed developers are a good entry point into this rapidly expanding theme due to their large rental asset portfolios and low participation in REIT issuance [3][9]. Beneficiaries - In-depth analysis indicates that China Resources Land (1109.HK) has the highest short-term benefit potential, followed by Seazen Holdings (601155.SS) and Longfor Group (0960.HK), due to their substantial shopping center portfolios and high pledge ratios. Other companies like China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK), China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ), Vanke (2202.HK), Poly Developments (600048.SS), and Gemdale (600383.SS) also have significant non-retail rental assets that could benefit in the medium term as REIT coverage expands [4][9]. Signals to Watch - The normalization of REIT issuance, especially with private developers' participation, the expansion of covered commercial asset types, and increased flexibility in capital recycling will strengthen confidence in the mid-term investment logic [4][9]. Regulatory Framework and Market Development - C-REITs have a more stringent regulatory framework compared to mature markets like the US and Japan, including requirements on structure, holding ratios, leverage levels, and initial yield [15][19]. - The development of C-REITs has progressed through four phases over the past 25 years, with significant milestones including the first public REITs listed in 2021 and the expansion of eligible asset types [11][12]. Market Size and Performance - As of September 2025, there are 75 publicly listed C-REITs with a total issuance size of approximately RMB 200 billion and a market capitalization of about RMB 220 billion. Despite significant growth since the first listings, C-REITs currently represent only 0.15% of the total market capitalization of China's stock market [20][29]. - The average trading yield of C-REITs has compressed to 4.4%, reflecting a price increase of about 10% since IPOs, with specific sectors like water facilities and new infrastructure seeing substantial price increases [21][40]. Long-term Potential - The potential market size for C-REITs could reach between $800 billion to $1 trillion, which is 28 to 33 times the current market size, driven by the growth of commercial REITs and the completion of new properties [41][43]. - The estimated total value of commercial properties completed since 2000 is approximately $4.9 trillion, indicating a significant opportunity for C-REITs to capture a larger market share in the future [41][42]. Conclusion - The C-REIT market in China is poised for significant growth, driven by favorable policies, a shift in investment focus, and the potential for substantial market capitalization increases over the next decade. Developers with large rental portfolios are well-positioned to benefit from this emerging asset class [3][4][9].

Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - The national auction housing market in China has seen a significant decline in both volume and price, with total transaction value dropping by 22.5% year-on-year to 204.87 billion yuan, and the average transaction price decreasing by 12.3% to 4,668 yuan per square meter [2] - The total number of auctioned properties fell by 5.7% to 605,000 units, while the number of successfully auctioned properties decreased by 2.4% to 138,000 units, indicating a cooling market [2] Group 2: Land Supply in Xi'an - Xi'an has announced the release of 11 plots of development land with a total starting price of 3.84 billion yuan, covering an area of 469.368 acres and a planned construction area exceeding 1 million square meters [3] - This land supply is part of a policy aimed at stabilizing land prices and promoting investment, linking land supply to urban renewal and regional development [3] Group 3: Policy Changes in Chongqing - Chongqing has relaxed the conditions for withdrawing housing provident fund for full payment home purchases, allowing withdrawals after six months of purchase and extending the withdrawal period from two years to five years [4][5] - The policy aims to support reasonable housing demand and provide more flexible financial support for contributors while enhancing risk control [5] Group 4: Poly Developments' Financial Management - Poly Developments announced a 2 billion yuan medium-term note with a maturity of five years, with an interest rate of 3.55%, and the interest payment scheduled for November 17, 2025 [6] - This reflects the company's normal debt management practices and its financial strength to meet payment obligations [6] Group 5: Beike's Third Quarter Performance - Beike reported a total transaction value of 736.7 billion yuan in Q3 2025, remaining flat year-on-year, with total revenue increasing by 2.1% to 23.1 billion yuan [7] - However, net profit decreased by 36.1% to 747 million yuan, indicating pressure on profitability amid market adjustments, while the number of active stores and agents grew significantly [7]

摘要 保利发展前三季度新增项目 35 个，总地价 603 亿元，同比增长 45%， 拓展面积 290 万平方米，同比增长 30%，但签约面积同比减少 25%， 签约均价约 2 万元每平方，显示扩张与销售压力并存。 1-10 月累计签约金额 2,229 亿，同比减少 21%，但 10 月单月签约 211 亿元，环比增长 2.8%，核心 38 城销售占比 91%，一二线城市销 售占比 87%，表明销售结构优化，但整体销售额仍面临同比下滑。 公司现金流表现稳健，销售回笼率 96.5%，经营活动现金净流入 70 亿 元，同比由负转正增长 230 亿，期末货币资金余额 1,226 亿元，但同比 减少 115 亿元，主要受预售监管资金减少影响。 公司杠杆水平持续优化，资产负债率和扣除预收款后的资产负债率同比 有所改善，但净负债率微升，表明公司在控制债务风险方面取得一定成 效，但仍需关注净负债率的潜在风险。 公司营业总收入 1,737 亿元，同比下降 4.95%；归母净利润 19 亿元， 同比下降 75%，主要受结转项目中存量项目影响，大力去库存策略下房 价降幅较大，减值压力增加。 Q&A 保利发展前三季度的经营情况如何？ ...

最高成交单价超30万元/平方米。 11月7日，保利发展（600048）旗下广州保利.玥玺湾项目正式开盘，首开成交236套，单日实现认购金 额106亿元。据中指研究院统计，该项目刷新广州楼市销售纪录，成为2025年全国唯一单日销售破百亿 元的项目。据悉，该项目成交均价17万元/平方米，最高成交单价超30万元/平方米。 ...

Group 1: Housing Fund Loan in Nanning - Nanning Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued its first allocation-type housing provident fund loan, benefiting a buyer of a 117 square meter two-bedroom affordable housing unit with a total price of 557,000 yuan [1] - The buyer paid a down payment of 87,000 yuan and secured a provident fund loan of 470,000 yuan for a term of 20 years, using an equal principal repayment method [1] - The monthly payment is less than 3,000 yuan, saving approximately 19,000 yuan in interest compared to the same amount of commercial loans [1] Group 2: Sales Performance of Real Estate Companies - China Merchants Shekou reported a signed sales amount of 15.365 billion yuan in October, with a sales area of 559,000 square meters [2] - Poly Developments disclosed a signed sales amount of 21.116 billion yuan in October, with a signed area of 1,093,800 square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 50.86% in area and 50.12% in amount [3] - Shoukai Co., Ltd. achieved a signed sales amount of 999.7 million yuan in October, with a total signed area of 84,400 square meters [4] - Longfor Group reported a total contract sales amount of 5 billion yuan in October, with a contract sales area of 446,000 square meters [5]

Group 1 - The total sales of the top 50 listed real estate companies in China reached approximately 2116.51 billion yuan from January to October 2025, showing an increase of 217 billion yuan compared to the first nine months of the year [1] - The ranking among the top 50 companies has stabilized, with 31 companies maintaining their positions, indicating a strong competitive barrier [2][4] Group 2 - Poly Developments leads the sales with 222.7 billion yuan, followed by Greentown China and China Overseas Land & Investment with sales of 201.1 billion yuan and 189.1 billion yuan respectively [2][4] - Several companies, including China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke A, and Jianfa Group, have entered the "billion-dollar club" [2] Group 3 - In October, only Shanghai had land transfer fees exceeding 10 billion yuan, totaling 21.05 billion yuan, while the top 20 cities collectively saw land transfer fees of 103.94 billion yuan, slightly down from September [9] - The total land transfer area in the top 20 cities was 16.545 million square meters in October, with only three cities exceeding one million square meters in land transfer area [16]

Group 1: Fuzhou Real Estate Regulations - Fuzhou has implemented new regulations to strengthen the management of commodity housing sales and the credit evaluation of real estate companies [1] - Real estate companies must create and publicly disclose a pre-sale plan that includes eight key components before applying for pre-sale permits [1] - The new credit evaluation system mandates that companies in five districts undergo credit scoring every two years, directly linking results to pre-sale and fund supervision [1] Group 2: Record Sales in Guangzhou - Poly Developments' project, Guangzhou Poly·Yuexi Bay, achieved a remarkable sales record with a single-day transaction amount of 10.6 billion yuan, selling 236 units [2] - The project set a new sales record for Guangzhou, with an average transaction price of 170,000 yuan per square meter and a peak price exceeding 300,000 yuan per square meter [2] - The success of this project is attributed to a combination of scarce resources, product innovation, and brand premium, providing confidence to the market during a period of adjustment [2] Group 3: Shimao Construction Lawsuit - Shimao Construction announced a new lawsuit involving a claim amounting to 11.291 billion yuan, with the plaintiff being China CITIC Financial Asset Management [3] - The lawsuit is based on a contract dispute, with the first-instance court accepting the case on September 30 [3] - The company needs to accelerate asset disposal while maintaining close communication with creditors to explore diverse debt resolution paths [3] Group 4: China Merchants Shekou Loan Guarantee - China Merchants Shekou announced it will provide a guarantee for an 800 million yuan fixed asset loan requested by Hangzhou Ruisheng [4] - The loan has a term of 15 years, and the guarantee period will last for three years after the debt is fulfilled [4] - This move is seen as a strategic bet on the prospects of Hangzhou's digital economy and a key step in the company's transformation into an "industrial operator" [4] Group 5: Financial Street Holdings Bond Project - Financial Street Holdings' private placement bond project of 5.17 billion yuan has been accepted for review [5] - The bond issuance aims to consolidate market position and optimize financial structure during the industry adjustment period [5] - With an AAA credit rating and a state-owned enterprise background, the company is expected to secure low-cost financing to support future development [5]

Core Insights - Poly has surpassed Greentown in land acquisition in Xi'an, becoming the top real estate company in terms of land spending for the first ten months of 2023, with an investment of 50.58 billion yuan [1][2] - The land market in Xi'an has seen significant changes, with a total of three plots exceeding 2 billion yuan in transaction value this year [4][12] Group 1: Land Acquisition Rankings - The top three companies in land acquisition in Xi'an for January to October 2023 are Poly Development (50.58 billion yuan), Greentown China (45.9 billion yuan), and China Merchants Shekou (23.1 billion yuan) [1][2] - Poly's recent acquisition of 122 acres in the Qinglongsi area for 23.411 billion yuan has contributed significantly to its lead [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In the first ten months of 2023, 13 out of the top 20 land-acquiring companies in Xi'an are state-owned enterprises, while 7 are private enterprises [3] - The high-value land transactions are primarily driven by large-scale plots, all exceeding 100 acres, which are typically acquired by major state-owned enterprises [5][6] Group 3: Future Expectations - The land market in Xi'an is anticipated to see a revival in December, similar to the previous year, with expectations of multiple high-quality land plots being made available [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [14] Core Insights - The industry is currently experiencing downward pressure, but after over four years of adjustment, it may have entered the latter half of the cycle. Individual performance among companies is beginning to show significant differentiation. Structural turning points in profitability are expected due to optimized land reserves, with some high-quality companies already seeing performance improvements [22][12][20] Summary by Sections Profitability - Revenue decline has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% for key real estate companies in Q1-Q3 2025. The gross profit margin improved by 0.1 percentage points to 9.3%. However, individual profitability is increasingly differentiated, with companies like Binhai Group and Urban Development seeing over 40% growth in net profit [8][21][26] Debt Management - Maintaining financial safety is crucial, with a slight increase of 0.6% in interest-bearing debt by the end of Q3 2025. The overall debt risk in the industry is being cleared, and companies are beginning to tilt towards operational sustainability while ensuring financial safety [9][48][49] Cash Flow - Operating cash receipts saw a year-on-year decline of 9.3%, but the decrease has narrowed significantly. Investment activities remain restrained, and financing activities continue to show net outflows. Companies are focusing on cash flow safety through stringent cash management [10][24][48] Operations - Sales decline has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.2% in sales amount for key companies. However, land acquisition has become more aggressive, with a 110.4% increase in land acquisition amount. The focus is shifting towards land quality, with floor prices rising by 38.9% [11][20][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the "Good House" policy and the revaluation of commercial real estate [3][33]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant pressure, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 45% week-on-week and 47% year-on-year in November [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localized policies, such as credit rating links to pre-sale fund supervision in Fuzhou and tax subsidies in Suzhou, which aim to stimulate market activity [27][30]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in commercial real estate and property management, particularly in light of ongoing monetary easing in China [3][33]. Industry Data Summary New Home Sales - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 158.6 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 45.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.5% [4][5]. - Sales in first and second-tier cities saw a week-on-week decline of 46.1%, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 34.4% drop [4][5]. Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities totaled 98.8 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 15.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.3% [12][5]. - The cumulative sales for the year reached 50.1 million square meters, showing a slight increase of 1.4% year-on-year [12]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 key cities, 82 million square meters were launched for sale, with a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.78, indicating a challenging market environment [19][5]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 89.5 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.2% [19]. Policy and News Summary - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated a digital transformation action plan to promote smart city development and property digitalization [27]. - Localized policies are being implemented, such as Fuzhou's new regulations linking credit ratings to pre-sale fund supervision and Suzhou's tax subsidies for home purchases [27][30]. - The report notes that various cities are relaxing residency requirements and enhancing public housing policies to stimulate demand [27][30]. Company Dynamics - Major real estate companies reported significant declines in sales for October 2025, with Poly Developments down 50.1% and China Overseas Development down 55.1% year-on-year [33]. - Financing activities included China Merchants Shekou providing an 800 million yuan loan guarantee for its subsidiary, and Daxin City reducing the interest rate on its issued bonds to 2.15% [33][36]. - The report highlights stock buybacks by companies such as Shell-W and Greentown Service, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value [37].