Core Viewpoint - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company aims to become a leading international clean energy demonstration enterprise, backed by Shan Neng Group, with a strategic focus on five main industries over the next 5-10 years: mining, high-end chemical new materials, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing, and smart logistics [1] Industry and Company Summary - The company has a resource volume exceeding 460 billion tons, with a wide distribution and variety [1] - Through expansion and acquisitions, production capacity has steadily increased, with over 80 million tons added in the past five years through acquisitions [1] - Ongoing and planned coal mine projects are expected to provide momentum for capacity growth, projected to exceed 60 million tons per year [1] - Revenue and gross profit from coal chemical operations show an overall upward trend, with revenue and gross profit for the first three quarters of 2025 at 18.53 billion yuan and 4.88 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a high level [1] - The gross profit margin for the chemical business remains stable [1] - The company is focused on domestic operations while looking globally, engaging in external acquisitions, and has ongoing projects that aim to increase capacity to 300 million tons [1] - The industry is currently experiencing a bottom reversal in the cycle, with both volume and price rising significantly, indicating notable growth, leading to an initial "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 11.30% but a recent decline over the past five and twenty trading days [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yanzhou Coal reported a revenue of 1049.57 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 71.20 billion, down 37.57% compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 868.46 billion, with 423.77 billion distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased to 134,200, a reduction of 9.15% from the previous period [2]. - The top circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 75.09 million shares (a decrease of 34.53 million), and Guotai CSI Coal ETF, holding 70.87 million shares (an increase of 43.08 million) [3].

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is expected to stabilize and rebound in prices due to the "check overproduction" policy, benefiting thermal coal companies through improved long-term contract performance and coal-electricity integration, while coking coal companies face pressure due to lagging contract pricing [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the coal sector saw a positive revenue growth, with thermal coal companies experiencing a better net profit growth compared to coking coal companies [1]. - The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 621 CNY/ton on June 30, 2025, to 699 CNY/ton on September 30, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of 12.6% in Q3 [1]. - The overall performance of the coal industry is expected to continue improving due to increased heating demand and tight supply-side policies in Q4 [1][6]. Group 2: Production and Sales - The "check overproduction" policy in Q3 2025 led to stable production among leading thermal coal companies, while coking coal production saw a noticeable decline [2]. - Most listed coal companies did not significantly reduce their output in Q3, with some midstream companies experiencing high sales growth and accelerated inventory reduction due to improved supply-demand dynamics [2]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - In Q3 2025, the self-produced coal prices decreased year-on-year by 10% to 20%, while the sales prices of coal companies showed narrow fluctuations or slight increases, with most increases being less than 10% [3]. - The lag in price transmission from market coal prices to listed companies' sales prices is attributed to long-term contract pricing mechanisms and order delivery cycles [3]. Group 4: Cost Management - In H1 2025, coal companies shifted their strategies from volume-based to cost control, which became crucial in facing low coal prices and high inventory levels [4]. - Leading thermal coal companies maintained cost control in Q3 2025, achieving a decrease in unit costs, while some coking coal companies experienced an increase in unit sales costs, negatively impacting their performance [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The combination of stable production, rising prices, and cost reductions for thermal coal companies is expected to lead to improved profitability, while coking coal companies may see significant price rebounds in Q4 as long-term contracts adjust to higher market prices [5]. - The coal market is currently in a phase of tightening supply and increasing demand, with winter coal prices expected to remain strong due to seasonal heating needs and ongoing supply-side policies [7]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively monitoring robust thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as high-elasticity coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining, Jincheng Anthracite Mining, and Shanxi Coal International [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal has recently increased, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing at 834 RMB/ton as of November 14, marking a slight increase. The price at Guangzhou Port has reached 880 RMB, surpassing the previously indicated target of 750 RMB for coal-electricity profit sharing, and is currently within the expected fourth target price range of 800-860 RMB [1][2]. Thermal Coal Market Analysis - The recent increase in thermal coal prices is attributed to a combination of supply contraction and a surge in demand, particularly due to heating needs from a cold wave in northern regions and accelerated port restocking [2]. - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port is reported at 1860 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB in July, while coking coal futures have risen from 719 RMB in June to 1192 RMB, reflecting a cumulative increase of 65.79% [2]. Investment Logic - The price of thermal coal is expected to follow a four-step process: restoring central and local long-term contracts, achieving coal-electricity profit sharing, and surpassing the breakeven point for power plants, which is projected at 860 RMB [3]. - The price of coking coal is influenced more by market dynamics, with a significant correlation to thermal coal prices. The current ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices is 2.4, suggesting target prices for coking coal of 1608 RMB, 1680 RMB, 1800 RMB, and 2064 RMB corresponding to the four target levels of thermal coal [3]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is positioned for potential gains due to both cyclical recovery and dividend stability. The current prices of thermal and coking coal are still at historical lows, providing room for upward movement [4][5]. - The report highlights four main investment lines: 1. Cyclical logic with stocks like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal for thermal coal, and Pingmei Shenma and Huabei Mining for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic with companies like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity with companies like Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic with companies like Xinjie Energy and Guanghui Energy [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to reduced production and imports, with October coal production down 2.3% year-on-year, and imports down 9.76% [6][25] - Demand has significantly improved in October, primarily driven by increased coal consumption in thermal power and chemical industries, while the construction and metallurgy sectors have shown a decline [6][26] - The report highlights a notable increase in coal prices, with port prices rising by 56 yuan/ton in October, reflecting the improved supply-demand dynamics [10][11] Supply Side Summary - Coal production in October was 407 million tons, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, with daily production averaging 13.12 million tons, down 596,000 tons from the previous month [4][19] - The decline in production is attributed to maintenance, adverse weather, and stricter safety checks [6][19] - Coal imports in October were 41.74 million tons, down 9.76% year-on-year, with a cumulative import of 388 million tons from January to October, reflecting an 11.0% decrease [25][26] Demand Side Summary - Thermal power generation increased by 7.3% year-on-year in October, reversing a decline from September [6][26] - The total industrial electricity generation in October was 800.2 billion kWh, up 7.9% year-on-year, with a daily average of 25.81 billion kWh [5][18] - Chemical industry coal consumption rose significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 35.38% in October [10][26] Inventory Summary - By the end of October, coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 135,000 tons, while inventories at northern ports increased by 432,000 tons [10][11] - The report notes that inland power plants have increased their coal inventories, indicating a trend towards replenishment as winter approaches [10][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which exhibit strong cash flow and profitability [10][12] - It emphasizes the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in light of the current market conditions and potential for price increases [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong, with the northern port coal price reaching 834 RMB/ton, an increase of 17 RMB/ton week-on-week, as the industry anticipates an increase in daily consumption during the winter peak season [4][14][71] - The supply-demand balance in the coal market remains favorable, with stable production and a slight increase in port inventories, while non-electric demand from sectors like metallurgy and chemicals continues to support coal consumption [5][14][71] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with strong cash flows and high dividend yields, amidst market volatility and external economic pressures [7][73] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The northern port thermal coal price increased to 834 RMB/ton, with production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region stable at 89.79% [14][21] - Daily consumption at coastal and inland power plants showed a week-on-week change of -8.0 and +12.3 thousand tons, respectively, indicating a recovery phase [14][24] - The report notes a decrease in coal imports due to rising prices and lower acceptance from downstream users, while supply constraints from Indonesia and Russia are expected to limit import availability [14][71] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal production capacity utilization increased by 0.37 percentage points to 84.2%, driven by recovery in some mines in Shanxi [5][72] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu port rose to 1,366 trucks, indicating stable supply [5][72] - The report anticipates that despite short-term market sentiment fluctuations, coking coal prices will remain stable due to low production and inventory levels [6][72] 3. Coke - The supply-demand balance for coke remains stable, with some steel mills accepting a price increase of 50-55 RMB/ton, effective from November 15 [6][51] - The report indicates that independent coking plants have seen a decrease in production rates, while iron output has increased, supporting demand for coke [6][58] 4. Investment Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which exhibit strong fundamentals and growth potential [7][9][73] - It suggests that investors should consider the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in light of ongoing market dynamics and regulatory changes [7][73]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited, for the first time [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a coal production target of 300 million tons by 2030, supported by ongoing capacity expansion and acquisitions [2][4]. - The chemical products segment is projected to see steady growth, with total production expected to reach 8.702 million tons in 2024, aiming to exceed 9 million tons in the future [2]. - The company has a stable dividend history and is expected to continue providing high returns to shareholders [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited, established in September 1997, is primarily engaged in coal mining and sales, coal chemical product production and sales, logistics, equipment manufacturing, and power generation [13][19]. - The company is backed by Shandong Energy Group, which holds a 52.84% stake [14][15]. Business Analysis Coal Business: Rich Reserves and Capacity Expansion - The company has a total coal resource of over 460 billion tons, with significant reserves in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Australia [20][25]. - The coal production capacity is steadily increasing, with a current capacity of approximately 285 million tons per year, and plans to reach 300 million tons by 2026 [28][34]. Chemical Business: Capacity Expansion and Focus on High-End Products - The chemical segment is expanding, with a focus on high-end products, and is expected to produce 8.702 million tons in 2024 [2][19]. - The company aims to enhance its chemical product offerings and increase production capacity to over 20 million tons annually in the future [23][24]. Investment Value Analysis - The company has a strong international presence, reducing reliance on a single market, and is actively pursuing acquisitions to enhance its resource base [2][8]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 10.02 billion, 15.23 billion, and 18.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.7, 9.7, and 8.1 [2][4]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 139.12 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.27% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease by 28.37% in 2025, followed by a significant recovery in subsequent years [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal has surpassed the target of 800 yuan, with the current price at 834 yuan per ton as of November 14, reflecting a slight increase. The price at Guangzhou Port has reached 880 yuan, achieving the previously set target of 750 yuan for coal-electricity profit sharing. The price increase is attributed to supply contraction and a surge in demand due to the northern cold wave [3][4] - The report outlines that the price of coking coal has rebounded significantly from a low of 1230 yuan in July to 1860 yuan per ton as of November 14, with a notable increase in futures prices as well [3][4] - The investment logic suggests that both thermal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to follow a four-step recovery process, ultimately reaching a balance point around 860 yuan [4][13] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy-driven commodity, with price recovery expected to follow a structured process involving the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving profit-sharing targets. The ideal target price for coal-electricity profit sharing is projected to be around 750 yuan for 2025, with an anticipated price range of 800-860 yuan [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market dynamics, with target prices linked to the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The current ratio suggests target prices for coking coal at 1608 yuan, 1680 yuan, 1800 yuan, and 2064 yuan corresponding to thermal coal's price targets [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment lines in the coal sector: 1. **Cyclical Logic**: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal Mining are highlighted for their potential in thermal coal. 2. **Dividend Logic**: Companies such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy are noted for their strong dividend potential. 3. **Diversified Aluminum Elasticity**: Companies like Shenhua Holdings and Electric Power Investment are mentioned. 4. **Growth Logic**: New Energy and Guanghui Energy are recognized for their growth potential [5][14] Key Market Indicators - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.96%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.12 percentage points. The average PE ratio for the coal sector is reported at 15.9, while the PB ratio stands at 1.42, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [8][26][30]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal consumption is approaching a turning point, with a clear direction and potential for growth. The recent cold wave is expected to increase coal demand as power plants will need to procure more coal, leading to a potential rise in coal prices [6][29] - The report highlights that the average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises increased by 2.7% week-on-week but decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance is expected to gradually improve in the fourth quarter, with coal prices likely to rise steadily [6][29] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector underperformed slightly, with a decline of 0.78% compared to a 1.08% drop in the CSI 300 index, outperforming it by 0.3 percentage points [2] - The average daily coal production from monitored enterprises was 752 million tons, a 2% increase week-on-week but a 2.2% decrease year-on-year [2] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim region was 698 RMB/ton, up 0.58% week-on-week, while the import price index for thermal coal was 944 RMB/ton, up 6.19% week-on-week [3] - Coking coal prices also saw increases, with the main coking coal price at 1830 RMB/ton, up 1.7% week-on-week [4] Inventory Levels - Total coal inventory (including port storage) was 24.3 million tons, a 2.1% increase week-on-week but a 19.5% decrease year-on-year [2][8] - The report notes that the overall coal inventory in society was 17.68 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 374,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 873,000 tons [3][28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in coking coal and coke sectors. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [6][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The report indicates that the upward trend in thermal coal prices is expected to continue due to supply constraints from the November central safety production assessments and improving demand as winter approaches, with prices likely to exceed expectations [5][6] - For coking coal, despite short-term demand pressure from the off-season, the current low inventory and tight supply suggest significant price recovery potential if pro-cyclical policies are reintroduced globally [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing the bottom reversal opportunities in the coal sector, supported by low price-to-book ratios and low holdings [6] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of November 14, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 834 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 17 RMB/ton. The report anticipates continued price increases due to tight supply and low port inventories, alongside seasonal demand improvements [5][13] - The report notes that the inventory at the northern three ports is 12.58 million tons, down 12% year-on-year, while power plant inventories are 130 million tons, down 1.5% year-on-year, with usable days at 25.9 days, up 1.2 days year-on-year [6][14] Coking Coal - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1860 RMB/ton as of November 14. The report highlights that while steel mill demand is currently weak, the supply situation for coking coal is tight, indicating potential for price elasticity [5][6] - The report also mentions that the average daily pig iron production at sample steel mills is 2.3688 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [15] Valuation and Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the current price-to-book ratios for coking coal and major thermal coal companies are at the lower third percentile since 2016, indicating undervaluation compared to other cyclical resource sectors [6] - The report recommends a mixed strategy for investment, highlighting companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy as stable leaders, while also suggesting more aggressive plays in companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy and Jinneng Holding Group [6][27]