8月1日，稀土指数盘中跌幅超2%，包钢股份、盛和资源、北方稀土、中国稀土、广晟有色跌幅靠前。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

本报记者 丁蓉 小金属价格上涨与供需两端共振密切相关。 年初至今，钨、钴、稀土价格纷纷上涨。Wind数据显示，截至7月29日，钴报价263000元/吨，相比2024 年末的170000元/吨，涨幅为54.71%；钨精矿报价192500元/吨，相比2024年末的142500元/吨，涨幅为 35.09%。截至7月29日，中国稀土行业协会公布的稀土价格指数报202.70，相比2024年末的163.80，涨 幅为23.75%。 在市场回暖背景下，小金属行业相关上市公司业绩显著提升。截至目前，中国北方稀土（集团）高科技 股份有限公司（以下简称"北方稀土"）、广晟有色金属股份有限公司（以下简称"广晟有色"）、浙江华 友钴业股份有限公司（以下简称"华友钴业"）、广东翔鹭钨业股份有限公司（以下简称"翔鹭钨业"）等 上市公司上半年"成绩单"均颇为亮眼。 苏商银行特约研究员付一夫在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示："供给方面，小金属普遍存在资源储 量有限、开采难度大等特点，短期内难以快速扩大产能；需求方面，新能源车、风电、半导体等新兴产 业快速发展，带动了对钨、钴、稀土等关键材料的需求激增，这种供需错配导致价格持续上涨。此外， 受 ...

中邮证券有限责任公司研报显示，供需失衡催化小金属牛市，钨、钴、稀土价格有望继续上涨。钴价方面，金九银十旺季 备货将带动存量库存去库，继续看好钴价下半年上涨行情。钨价方面，钨价稳步上涨，短期有望突破20万元/吨。稀土方面， 目前轻稀土呈现供需边际改善状态，叠加远期人形机器人需求带动，突破前期高点可期。 "展望下半年，预计小金属牛市有望延续。一方面，新能源、军工、人形机器人等终端需求保持强劲增长，预计钨、钴、 稀土价格仍有上涨空间；另一方面，供给端受政策影响，资源品供给收紧预期升温。这些因素都会给以上品类小金属价格提供 有力支撑。"付一夫表示。 上半年"成绩单"亮眼 供需错配推动价格上涨 小金属价格上涨与供需两端共振密切相关。 苏商银行特约研究员付一夫在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示："供给方面，小金属普遍存在资源储量有限、开采难度 大等特点，短期内难以快速扩大产能；需求方面，新能源车、风电、半导体等新兴产业快速发展，带动了对钨、钴、稀土等关 键材料的需求激增，这种供需错配导致价格持续上涨。此外，受政策与地缘政治因素影响，国内对部分小金属实施出口管制， 这也在一定程度上推升了小金属的涨价。" 陕西巨丰投资资讯有限 ...

证券之星消息，7月29日小金属板块较上一交易日下跌0.58%，广晟有色领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3609.71，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于11289.41，上涨0.64%。小金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002428 | 云南错业 | 24.99 | 9.99% | 84.39万 | | 20.77亿 | | 000657 | 中钨高新 | 19.00 | 5.50% | 218.69万 | | 40.41亿 | | 002738 | 中矿资源 | 38.13 | 1.71% | 26.96万 | | 10.29亿 | | 601958 | 金钥股份 | 13.04 | 0.77% | 62.19万 | | 8.17亿 | | 600456 | 宝钛股份 | 32.05 | 0.60% | 8.35万 | | 2.66亿 | | 920068 | 天工股份 | 20.37 | 0.00% | 3.43万 | | 6919.63万 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a seasonal increase in inventory and slight fluctuations in the prices of base metals, with a focus on the ongoing macroeconomic environment and its impact on supply and demand dynamics [6][11]. - The report suggests that the long-term supply-demand structure is being reshaped, indicating limited downside potential for base metal prices and encouraging investors to seek new entry points, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the domestic industrial metal prices have shown slight fluctuations, with the non-ferrous metal index outperforming the market. The weekly price changes for LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc were 0.0%, -0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.2%, respectively, while SHFE prices were 1.1%, 1.2%, 0.8%, and 2.6% [6][20][21]. Macroeconomic Factors - The report tracks three macroeconomic factors: 1. China's June export value increased by 6% year-on-year, with total exports amounting to $325.2 billion [6][27]. 2. U.S. inflation showed an uptick, with the June CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year [6][33]. 3. The European economic sentiment index continued to rise, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 49.5 [6][36]. Base Metals Analysis - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro environment remains strong, but market sentiment has cooled, leading to a price retreat. The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased by 10,000 tons, reaching 43.975 million tons, with production at 843,400 tons, a slight increase of 0.02% [6][40][41]. - The report indicates that the aluminum processing sector's operating rate decreased by 0.1%, averaging 58.7% as of July 24, 2025 [6][43]. - In terms of inventory, domestic aluminum ingot inventory rose by 36,000 tons to 577,000 tons, while global inventory increased by 42,300 tons to 1.2921 million tons [6][43][44]. Profitability Metrics - The report states that the immediate profit per ton for the aluminum industry remains above 3,500 yuan, with the current spot aluminum price at 20,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.19% increase [6][43].

Group 1: ETF Performance - The Rare Metals ETF has a turnover rate of 6.87% with a transaction volume of 83.93 million yuan, and it ranks first among comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume over the past week at 131 million yuan [3] - The latest scale of the Rare Metals ETF reached 1.22 billion yuan, marking a one-year high and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's shares reached 1.843 billion, a three-month high, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - Over the past six days, the Rare Metals ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a single-day peak of 50.91 million yuan, totaling 177 million yuan in net inflows [3] - As of July 28, 2025, the ETF's net value has increased by 59.46% over the past year, ranking 267 out of 2938 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 9.09% [3] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 24.02% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being three months and the longest gain percentage being 14.06%, averaging a monthly return of 7.76% [3] - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized return of 9.87% over the past three months [3] Group 2: Market Insights - Huatai Securities notes that the domestic "anti-involution" policies are intensifying, combined with recent overseas fiscal and monetary easing, leading to strong performance in the metals sector [4] - The price of polysilicon has successfully recovered, boosting market confidence, which has spilled over into lithium carbonate and alumina [4] - Lithium, cobalt, and rare earths have found price bottoms from a cost perspective, with independent factors driving price increases, such as stricter mining rights reviews for lithium and strategic enhancements and shortages for rare earths [4] - Zhongyou Securities highlights that the Democratic Republic of the Congo has banned cobalt exports since February, with extensions in June, leading to a depletion of in-transit cobalt mines, and anticipates that the peak season in September and October will drive inventory reductions [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index as of June 30, 2025, include Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, China Rare Earth, Western Superconducting, Zhongmin Resources, and Xiamen Tungsten, collectively accounting for 54.07% of the index [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Views - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, leading to a comprehensive rise in metal prices, particularly strategic metals [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic metals and bottom energy metal allocation opportunities, highlighting the revaluation of rare earths and tungsten [4] - The report suggests that the domestic growth stabilization and anti-involution policies are enhancing expectations, which is driving up domestic commodity prices [5][6] Summary by Sections Strategic Metals - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are experiencing a revaluation, with significant price increases expected due to government focus and international supply chain developments [4] - The price of rare earth concentrate has increased to 19,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [4] - Tungsten prices are also on the rise, supported by strong supply dynamics and improving company performance [4] Energy Metals - The report indicates a high probability of short-term price increases for cobalt, with a significant drop in imports noted [4] - Cobalt intermediate imports in June fell to 18,991 tons, a decrease of 61.6% month-on-month [4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize, with long-term price expectations likely to rise [4] Lithium - The report notes a bottoming out of lithium prices, with recent regulatory changes indicating stricter domestic mining controls [4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded by 15.2% to 76 CNY/kg [24] - The report suggests monitoring potential resource releases in the lithium sector [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are fluctuating due to improved risk appetite and easing trade tensions, with a recommendation to increase allocation to precious metal stocks [4][6] - The report highlights that gold stocks have underperformed, suggesting a strategic buying opportunity [4] - Silver is noted for its potential upside, with a recommendation to consider silver stocks for recovery [4] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are experiencing mixed performance, with domestic prices leading international trends [5][6] - Copper prices on the SHFE increased by 1.1%, while aluminum prices rose by 1.2% [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and their impact on metal demand [6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Views - The significant increase in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by supply contraction expectations and a rapid price correction due to regulatory actions against non-compliant mining practices [1] - Copper prices have shown a mixed performance, with market sentiment supporting price increases, but demand remains weak, limiting upward momentum [2][15] - Aluminum prices have risen due to external market influences and domestic production adjustments, although concerns about future demand in the photovoltaic sector persist [3][24] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases driven by heightened risk aversion amid global trade uncertainties [4][30] - Tungsten prices have increased across the board, supported by resource scarcity and cautious market activity [5][63] - The rare earth sector is experiencing a recovery in fundamentals, with significant price increases for light and heavy rare earth elements [6][41] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have fluctuated, with a recent increase to 78,710 CNY/ton, but market demand remains weak, leading to cautious trading [2][15] - Aluminum: Prices rose to 20,630 CNY/ton, driven by external market trends and domestic production recovery, despite concerns in the photovoltaic sector [3][24] - Precious Metals: Gold averaged 780.69 CNY/gram, up 0.83%, and silver at 9,291 CNY/kg, up 2.02%, influenced by global trade tensions [4][30] Minor Metals - Lithium: Prices for lithium carbonate have stabilized, with market sentiment remaining cautious amid steady production [41][42] - Cobalt: Prices have increased slightly, but demand remains weak, leading to limited trading activity [43][44] - Tin: Prices have risen to 34,750 USD/ton, supported by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [53][54] - Tungsten: Prices have increased due to resource scarcity, with black tungsten averaging 186,500 CNY/ton [5][63] - Molybdenum: Prices have shown a mixed trend, with recent increases due to supply disruptions and market optimism [68][69] Rare Earths - The rare earth market is witnessing a significant recovery, with prices for light rare earths like praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising to 514,000 CNY/ton [6][41]

Group 1 - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China has increased by 30.5% since the beginning of the year, reaching 520,000 to 535,000 yuan per ton as of July 24 [1] - The recent surge in rare earth prices is attributed to a combination of supply, demand, and market expectations, particularly influenced by the U.S. Department of Defense's pricing commitments [1][2] - The demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials is showing signs of improvement, with projections indicating significant growth in humanoid robot production and increased sales in the electric vehicle sector [3] Group 2 - MP has secured two major contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense and Apple, including a 10-year agreement with a minimum price commitment of $110 per kilogram for neodymium products [2] - The current spot market for rare earths is experiencing low transaction activity due to rapid price increases, leading to cautious behavior among downstream buyers [2] - Long-term projections indicate a tightening supply-demand situation for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, with expected supply deficits from 2025 to 2027 [4]

Group 1 - The small metal concept index rose by 3.08%, ranking 9th among concept sectors, with 128 stocks increasing in value [1] - Notable gainers included Tibet Tianlu, China Power Construction, and Zhongke Sanhuan, which hit the daily limit, while Huayou Cobalt, Tangyuan Electric, and Northern Rare Earth saw significant increases of 9.44%, 9.22%, and 9.00% respectively [1][2] - The largest declines were observed in Zhongjin Gold, Zhejiang Fu Holdings, and Western Gold, with decreases of 4.41%, 4.03%, and 3.59% respectively [1] Group 2 - The small metal concept sector attracted a net inflow of 4.014 billion yuan, with 92 stocks receiving net inflows and 21 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflows [2] - Northern Rare Earth led the net inflow with 1.554 billion yuan, followed by China Rare Earth, Tibet Mining, and Guangsheng Nonferrous with net inflows of 499 million yuan, 433 million yuan, and 431 million yuan respectively [2] Group 3 - In terms of net inflow ratios, Zhongke Sanhuan, Tibet Mining, and Jinchuan Group had the highest ratios at 37.98%, 31.43%, and 26.87% respectively [3] - The small metal concept's top stocks by net inflow included Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Tibet Mining, with respective net inflows of 1.553 billion yuan, 499 million yuan, and 432 million yuan [3][4]