Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a seasonal increase in inventory and slight fluctuations in the prices of base metals, with a focus on the ongoing macroeconomic environment and its impact on supply and demand dynamics [6][11]. - The report suggests that the long-term supply-demand structure is being reshaped, indicating limited downside potential for base metal prices and encouraging investors to seek new entry points, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the domestic industrial metal prices have shown slight fluctuations, with the non-ferrous metal index outperforming the market. The weekly price changes for LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc were 0.0%, -0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.2%, respectively, while SHFE prices were 1.1%, 1.2%, 0.8%, and 2.6% [6][20][21]. Macroeconomic Factors - The report tracks three macroeconomic factors: 1. China's June export value increased by 6% year-on-year, with total exports amounting to $325.2 billion [6][27]. 2. U.S. inflation showed an uptick, with the June CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year [6][33]. 3. The European economic sentiment index continued to rise, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 49.5 [6][36]. Base Metals Analysis - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro environment remains strong, but market sentiment has cooled, leading to a price retreat. The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased by 10,000 tons, reaching 43.975 million tons, with production at 843,400 tons, a slight increase of 0.02% [6][40][41]. - The report indicates that the aluminum processing sector's operating rate decreased by 0.1%, averaging 58.7% as of July 24, 2025 [6][43]. - In terms of inventory, domestic aluminum ingot inventory rose by 36,000 tons to 577,000 tons, while global inventory increased by 42,300 tons to 1.2921 million tons [6][43][44]. Profitability Metrics - The report states that the immediate profit per ton for the aluminum industry remains above 3,500 yuan, with the current spot aluminum price at 20,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.19% increase [6][43].

Group 1: ETF Performance - The Rare Metals ETF has a turnover rate of 6.87% with a transaction volume of 83.93 million yuan, and it ranks first among comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume over the past week at 131 million yuan [3] - The latest scale of the Rare Metals ETF reached 1.22 billion yuan, marking a one-year high and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's shares reached 1.843 billion, a three-month high, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - Over the past six days, the Rare Metals ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a single-day peak of 50.91 million yuan, totaling 177 million yuan in net inflows [3] - As of July 28, 2025, the ETF's net value has increased by 59.46% over the past year, ranking 267 out of 2938 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 9.09% [3] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 24.02% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being three months and the longest gain percentage being 14.06%, averaging a monthly return of 7.76% [3] - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized return of 9.87% over the past three months [3] Group 2: Market Insights - Huatai Securities notes that the domestic "anti-involution" policies are intensifying, combined with recent overseas fiscal and monetary easing, leading to strong performance in the metals sector [4] - The price of polysilicon has successfully recovered, boosting market confidence, which has spilled over into lithium carbonate and alumina [4] - Lithium, cobalt, and rare earths have found price bottoms from a cost perspective, with independent factors driving price increases, such as stricter mining rights reviews for lithium and strategic enhancements and shortages for rare earths [4] - Zhongyou Securities highlights that the Democratic Republic of the Congo has banned cobalt exports since February, with extensions in June, leading to a depletion of in-transit cobalt mines, and anticipates that the peak season in September and October will drive inventory reductions [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index as of June 30, 2025, include Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, China Rare Earth, Western Superconducting, Zhongmin Resources, and Xiamen Tungsten, collectively accounting for 54.07% of the index [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Views - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, leading to a comprehensive rise in metal prices, particularly strategic metals [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic metals and bottom energy metal allocation opportunities, highlighting the revaluation of rare earths and tungsten [4] - The report suggests that the domestic growth stabilization and anti-involution policies are enhancing expectations, which is driving up domestic commodity prices [5][6] Summary by Sections Strategic Metals - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are experiencing a revaluation, with significant price increases expected due to government focus and international supply chain developments [4] - The price of rare earth concentrate has increased to 19,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [4] - Tungsten prices are also on the rise, supported by strong supply dynamics and improving company performance [4] Energy Metals - The report indicates a high probability of short-term price increases for cobalt, with a significant drop in imports noted [4] - Cobalt intermediate imports in June fell to 18,991 tons, a decrease of 61.6% month-on-month [4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize, with long-term price expectations likely to rise [4] Lithium - The report notes a bottoming out of lithium prices, with recent regulatory changes indicating stricter domestic mining controls [4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded by 15.2% to 76 CNY/kg [24] - The report suggests monitoring potential resource releases in the lithium sector [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are fluctuating due to improved risk appetite and easing trade tensions, with a recommendation to increase allocation to precious metal stocks [4][6] - The report highlights that gold stocks have underperformed, suggesting a strategic buying opportunity [4] - Silver is noted for its potential upside, with a recommendation to consider silver stocks for recovery [4] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are experiencing mixed performance, with domestic prices leading international trends [5][6] - Copper prices on the SHFE increased by 1.1%, while aluminum prices rose by 1.2% [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and their impact on metal demand [6]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 金属与材料 证券研究报告 供给收缩预期叠加反内卷催化，碳酸锂波动率放大 一周一议：碳酸锂缘何大涨？ 本周碳酸锂主力合约 2509 周内涨幅 18.3%，收于 80520 元/吨，波动率放大明显，较 6 月低点（58400）涨 幅 37.9%。我们认为碳酸锂大涨最直接触发点在于——供给端收缩预期，反内卷催化下价格迎来快速修复。 回顾 7 月以来锂行业的重大事件：1）7 月 14 日，宜春市自然资源局下发通知，要求当地 8 家涉锂矿山企 业编制储量核实报告，并在 9 月30 日前完成报告编制，因这些矿权存在"规避审批权限、越权办理手续" 等问题。这也表明，监管部门正在加快治理锂资源违规开发现象。2）7 月 17 日，因违规开采问题，藏格矿 业发布公告称，其全资子公司藏格锂业已被责令停产、整改。据电池中国网，核心问题在于：其依托的察 尔汗盐湖钾镁矿采矿权仅登记钾盐开采，未包含锂资源开采许可。3）7月 21日晚，江特电机发布公告披露， 其全资子公司宜春银锂拟于 7 月 25 日启动停产检修，涉及全部锂盐生产线，预计检修时长约 26 天。这一 系列事件，进一步加剧了市场对碳酸锂供给收缩的预期 ...

◎记者 霍星羽 "工业黄金"价格继续上涨。上海钢联数据显示，7月24日国内氧化镨钕价格为52万元/吨，相较于年初已 上涨30.5%。A股市场上，7月24日稀土、稀土永磁板块飘红，广晟有色、中科三环涨停，北方稀土盘中 触及涨停。 业内人士认为，当前稀土市场火热是供需和预期共振的结果。国内镨钕价格与美国国防部给美国稀土企 业MP定的最低承诺价相比，尚有较大价差。另外，稀土供需层面的好转也为价格走强提供支撑。 轻稀土价格较年初上涨三成 上海有色网分析称，目前稀土价格的大幅上涨，主要集中在轻稀土市场。具体来看，氧化镨钕价格持续 上涨至52万元/吨至53.5万元/吨，其他氧化物价格保持稳定或下调；镨钕金属价格持续上涨至63万元/吨 至64万元/吨，其他金属价格较为稳定。 A股某稀土企业高管对记者表示，近期稀土市场火热是供给、需求、预期共同作用的结果。以往大家往 往从供需因素考虑稀土价格，但是MP事件令市场形成了一个预期：美国国防部给该企业镨钕产品设定 的最低价是110美元/公斤，比我国内的价格高出较多。即相较之下，国内镨钕产品还有提涨空间。 上海有色网分析称，氧化物市场，持货商对后市价格预期较高，不愿低价出货，挺价意愿 ...

| 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海南自贸区 | 9.11 | 民爆概念 | -0.56 | | 赛马概念 | 4.67 | F5G概念 | -0.55 | | 免税店 | 4.46 | 共封装光学(CPO) | -0.11 | | 稀土永磁 | 4.03 | 铜缆高速连接 | 0.07 | | 金属钴 | 3.93 | 可控核聚变 | 0.09 | | 自由贸易港 | 3.41 | 光热发电 | 0.10 | | 转基因 | 3.15 | 超超临界发电 | 0.26 | | 低辐射玻璃(Low-E) | 3.12 | 柔性直流输电 | 0.34 | | 小金属概念 | 3.08 | 猪肉 | 0.34 | | 盐湖提锂 | 3.00 | 光纤概念 | 0.37 | 资金面上看，今日小金属概念板块获主力资金净流入40.14亿元，其中，92股获主力资金净流入，21股 主力资金净流入超亿元，净流入资金居首的是北方稀土，今日主力资金净流入15.54亿元，净流入资金 居前的还有中国稀土、西藏矿业、广晟有色等，主力资金分别净流入4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a significant upward trend on July 24, with all three major indices reaching new highs for the year, indicating strong investor sentiment and market recovery [1]. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets recorded a total trading volume of 1.84 trillion yuan, a decrease of 19.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4,300 stocks rising across the market [2]. Sector Highlights - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept stocks saw a collective surge, with over 20 stocks, including Hainan Airport, hitting the daily limit [3]. - Rare earth permanent magnet stocks also experienced substantial gains, with Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals reaching the daily limit [3]. - The super hydropower sector rebounded, with multiple stocks, including China Power Construction, hitting the daily limit [3]. Lithium Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate sector saw a significant increase, with the main futures contract reaching a limit up at 77,240 yuan per ton, marking an 8% rise [4]. - Lithium mining stocks surged, with Tibet Mining and Yongshan Lithium Industry hitting the daily limit, and Tianqi Lithium A shares also achieving a rare limit up, marking its first limit up this year [4]. - A notice from the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau required local lithium mining companies to prepare resource verification reports by September 30, which some industry insiders view as a move to combat excessive competition in the lithium sector [5]. Vaccine Sector Movement - The biopharmaceutical vaccine sector saw a midday rally, with Zhifei Biological hitting the daily limit and Watson Bio rising over 14%, alongside other stocks like Kangtai Biological and Sanofi Health also experiencing gains [5]. Securities Sector Performance - The securities sector, often referred to as the "bull market flag bearer," performed well, with stocks like Guosen Securities and Bank of China Securities leading the gains [6].

7月24日，稀土永磁概念早盘走强，北方稀土开盘后快速拉升，中科三环9:38封住涨停，金力永磁、银河磁体、宁波韵 升等多只个股跟涨。 中金公司在研报中指出，2025年至2027年全球氧化镨钕供需缺口为28吨、1525吨、1018吨，占需求比例为0.02%、 1.24%、0.78%，全球氧化镨钕供需有望持续偏紧，稀土价格有望温和上涨。 政策利好持续释放 近日，国家安全部最新表态强调，将进一步加强稀土等战略性矿产资源的安全管理。这一表态与《稀土管理条例》形 成政策组合拳，强化了市场对行业规范发展的预期。这些利好政策为相关企业带来了巨大的发展机遇。 此外，我国在稀土价格调控方面也采取了更为市场化的手段。通过完善稀土产品储备制度、规范开采秩序等措施，既 避免了价格剧烈波动，又保障了企业的合理利润空间。这种政策环境为稀土行业的可持续发展创造了有利条件。 需要说明的是，稀土永磁材料作为现代工业的"工业维生素"，在新能源汽车、风力发电、机器人、航空航天等高端制 造领域具有不可替代性。根据中研普华产业研究院的数据，2025年全球稀土永磁市场规模将突破249.50亿美元，中国以 全球90%以上的产量占据绝对主导地位。这一产业不仅 ...

沃森生物：与玉溪国有资本运营公司签署战略合作框架协议 7月23日晚，沃森生物（300142）发布公告称，公司与玉溪国有资本运营有限公司签署了《战略合作框 架协议》。双方拟围绕疫苗及生物制品产业领域建立长期合作关系，通过共同设立股权投资基金、参与 产业链企业投资、战略入股等多种方式深化合作。此次合作旨在推动公司在创新疫苗及合成生物制造行 业的产业升级和业务扩张。 资料显示，沃森生物成立于2001年1月，主营业务是人用疫苗等生物技术药的研发、生产和销售。 所属行业：医药生物–生物制品–疫苗 苑东生物：初步确定询价转让价格为42.06元/股 7月23日晚，苑东生物（688513）发布公告称，公司股东询价转让初步定价为42.06元/股。本次询价转 让共吸引12家机构投资者参与，涵盖基金、保险、证券及私募基金等专业机构，合计有效认购股份数量 为540万股，有效认购倍数为1.60倍。拟受让方为10家机构投资者，拟受让股份总数为336.955万股。 资料显示，苑东生物成立于2009年6月，主营业务是化学原料药、高端化学药品及生物药品研发、生 产、销售。 所属行业：医药生物–化学制药–化学制剂 伟明环保：上半年完成发电量22 ...

广晟有色金属股份有限公司 关于全资子公司拟公开挂牌转让 珠江稀土 3%股权的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误 导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法 律责任。 重要内容提示： ●广晟有色金属股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）全资子公司广东 广晟有色进出口有限公司（以下简称"进出口公司"）拟公开挂牌转让所 持广东珠江稀土有限公司（以下简称"珠江稀土"）3%股权，挂牌价格不 低于人民币 597.64 万元。 ●本次交易暂不构成关联交易，未构成重大资产重组。 ●本次交易成功与否存在不确定性，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 一、交易概述 进出口公司拟按照国有产权转让的有关规定，将珠江稀土 3%股权在 境内产权交易所公开挂牌转让，以 2025 年 3 月 31 日珠江稀土净资产评 估值 19,921.23 万元人民币作为参考，公司拟挂牌珠江稀土 3%股权对 应价值为 597.64 万元，本次股权出售的挂牌价格为不低于人民币 597.64 万元。交易完成后，进出口公司不再持有珠江稀土股权。 公司于 2025 年 7 月 21 日召开第九届董事会 2025 年第五次会议， ...