Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to experience a reduction in production capacity and an improvement in quality, leading to stabilization in prices and profits in 2026 [1] Group 1: Supply - A new capacity replacement policy is set to be implemented, which is expected to continue reducing crude steel production in 2026 [6] - The capacity replacement policy will increase the reduction ratio in non-key areas to at least 1.5:1, enhancing long-term capacity constraints [14][18] - The overall crude steel production is anticipated to decrease year-on-year due to differentiated production restrictions and proactive production control by enterprises [6][28] Group 2: Demand - Investment stability and domestic demand expansion are expected to lead to a recovery in steel demand in 2026 [6] - The construction sector is projected to see a recovery in fixed asset investment, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [36] - Manufacturing sectors such as automotive, machinery, and home appliances are expected to maintain growth in steel demand due to supportive policies [6][57] Group 3: Costs - Steel cost pressures are expected to continue easing in 2026, with iron ore supply slightly increasing and demand stabilizing [6][61] - The global iron ore supply is projected to see a slight increase, with the four major mining companies expected to have a production growth rate of about 1.8% in 2026 [66] - The overall balance between iron ore supply and demand is expected to remain weak, with prices anticipated to fluctuate downward [6][61] Group 4: Prices and Profits - The reduction in production and improvement in quality are expected to help stabilize steel prices and profits in 2026 [6] - Demand for flat steel is expected to remain stronger than for long steel, with policies aimed at further tapping into consumption potential [6] - The anticipated decline in crude steel production, primarily driven by loss-making enterprises and policy-induced reductions, will contribute to a mild improvement in the steel supply-demand landscape [6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the ordinary steel sector and those involved in restructuring and integration, such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [6] - In the special steel sector, high-performance steel products are encouraged, with companies like Jiuli Special Materials and Yongjin Co. expected to benefit from policy support [6][7]

特种板材是国家高端装备、绿色能源、海洋工程等战略领域的"核心基石"，其发展水平直接关乎我 国重大工程自主安全与高端制造核心竞争力。12月10日，中国金属学会特板数智分会成立大会暨技术 交流会在南京举行，为特种板材产业数智化转型提供新助力。 作为分会支撑单位与核心发起者，我市制造业标杆企业南京钢铁集团有限公司（以下简称南钢）全 程主导筹备工作，并以自身数智化转型实践为行业高质量发展树立典范。 "分会的成立是行业发展的必然选择，更是南钢践行产业责任的具体体现。"南钢相关负责人表示， 企业始终以"产业智慧化、智慧产业化"为目标，凭借在特种板材领域的技术积累与数智化转型经验，为 分会搭建提供了坚实支撑。据了解，南钢已入选国家首批领航级智能工厂培育名单，连续3年斩获冶金 科学技术奖特等奖，拥有45个高端研发平台，211项产品（技术）达到国际先进以上水平，这些成果都 成为分会引领行业发展的重要底气。 为何在南京成立？ 从自我革新到行业标杆，"南钢模式"赋能行业发展 上月底，2025世界智能制造大会在宁举行，南钢入选国家首批领航级智能工厂培育名单，同时凭 借"钢铁企业全要素资源优化与智慧运营中心"成功入选2025中国智能制 ...

中国银河证券表示，上市银行中期分红力度不减且节奏提前，红利价值日益凸显。与此同时，股东及高 管的增持行为，有助于稳定市场预期。这两大因素共同作用，有望持续吸引中长期资金进行配置。 此外，12月6日，金监总局发布发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》，下调股票风险因 子，降低险资配置优质权益资产的资本占用。 招商证券观点认为，近期出台的政策集中在资本市场与消费政策两个领域，结合政策面及资金面来看， 今年1月发布的《推动中长期资金入市工作实施方案》，明确力争大型国有保险公司每年新增保费的 30%投向A股。从过往经验来看，12月末至明年一季度末是险资传统重要配置窗口期，前期调整的红利 板块有望重新获得关注。 国企红利ETF紧密跟踪中证国有企业红利指数，从国有企业中选取现金股息率高、分红比较稳定且有一 定规模及流动性的100只上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映国有企业中高股息率证券的整体表现。 据Wind数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证国有企业红利指数前十大权重股分别为中远海控、冀中 能源、潞安环能、山煤国际、南钢股份、鲁西化工、中粮糖业、山西焦煤、农业银行、恒源煤电，前十 大权重股合计占比16.99% ...

钢铁行业资金流向排名 沪指12月9日下跌0.37%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有5个，涨幅居前的行业为综合、通信，涨幅分 别为3.45%、2.23%。跌幅居前的行业为有色金属、钢铁，跌幅分别为3.03%、2.47%。钢铁行业位居今 日跌幅榜第二。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出529.92亿元，主力资金净流入的行业仅有3个，商贸零售行业净 流入资金11.43亿元；综合行业净流入资金4.32亿元；银行行业净流入资金7057.87万元。 主力资金净流出的行业有28个，有色金属行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金79.37亿元， 其次是计算机行业，净流出资金为56.16亿元，净流出资金较多的还有机械设备、非银金融、电力设备 等行业。 钢铁行业今日下跌2.47%，全天主力资金净流出7.04亿元，该行业所属的个股共44只，今日上涨的有1 只；下跌的有43只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有7只，净流入资金居首的是 宝钢股份，今日净流入资金2598.66万元，紧随其后的是沙钢股份、酒钢宏兴，净流入资金分别为887.68 万元、508.74万元。钢铁行业资金净流出个股中，资金净流出超3000万元的 ...

今天分享的是：2025年中国钢铁行业绿电消费的进程、挑战与建议报告 报告共计：30页 fth 中国钢铁行业绿电消费的 进程、挑战与建议 中国钢铁行业绿电消费发展总结 中国钢铁行业作为高能耗、高碳排放领域，绿电消费已成为其低碳转型的核心路径。在相关政策引导与市场驱动下，行业绿电消费进程持续提速，形成了多 元发展模式，同时也面临着诸多挑战。 行业绿电消费的加速推进，得益于多重因素共同作用。政策层面，从能耗双控向碳排放双控的转型，以及重点用能行业绿电消费比例要求的明确，为企业设 定了清晰的合规方向。多地出台补贴政策，对绿电交易、零碳园区建设等给予资金支持，降低了企业转型成本。市场端，汽车、建筑等下游行业对低碳钢材 的需求日益增长，倒逼钢铁企业通过绿电消费提升产品绿色竞争力。同时，头部钢铁企业纷纷制定可持续发展规划，将绿电消费纳入中长期战略。 目前钢铁企业绿电消费形成了三种主流模式。绿色电力交易无需初始投资，可锁定电力供应与环境价值，部分地区还有补贴支持，宝钢股份、河钢集团等企 业已开展大规模交易。绿证交易方式灵活、全国流通，能满足大部分合规要求，但存在价格波动风险。自建/投资新能源项目初始成本较高，但长期可优化 用 ...

截至2025年12月8日 13:12，中证国有企业红利指数下跌0.47%。成分股厦门银行领涨，福建高速、光大 银行跟涨；中信特钢领跌，华阳股份、山煤国际跟跌。国企红利ETF(159515)下修调整。（文中所列示 股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况不代表基金未来的投资方向，也不代表具 体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化，投资需谨慎） 据Wind数据显示，规模方面，国企红利ETF(159515)最新规模达4787.53万元。份额方面，国企红利 ETF(159515)最新份额达4118.66万份。资金净流入方面，国企红利ETF(159515)近3天获得连续资金净流 入，最高单日获得279.29万元净流入，合计"吸金"349.08万元。 国企红利ETF(159515)，场外联接(鹏扬中证国有企业红利ETF联接A：020115；鹏扬中证国有企业红利 ETF联接C：020116)。 风险提示："中证国有企业红利指数(000824)由中证指数有限公司（"中证"）编制和计算，其所有权归属 中证及/或其指定的第三方。中证对于标的指数的实时性、准确性、完整性和特殊目的的适用性不作任 何明示或暗示 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [9]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence in performance compared to non-ferrous metals, with non-ferrous metals benefiting more from manufacturing sectors like electrical machinery and telecommunications, while steel is more reliant on real estate and automotive industries [2]. - The average daily pig iron production has decreased, with a notable drop in steel output, particularly in rebar production [12][18]. - Total steel inventory has seen a significant reduction, with a week-on-week decline of 2.5% [24]. - Apparent consumption of steel has weakened, with rebar demand declining more than hot-rolled coil demand [40]. - Iron ore prices have strengthened, influenced by supply adjustments and market dynamics [50]. Summary by Sections Supply - Daily pig iron production has decreased by 23,000 tons to 2.323 million tons, with a significant drop in steel output [12][18]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is at 87.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [18]. Inventory - Total steel inventory has decreased by 2.5% week-on-week, with social inventory down 2.9% and steel mill inventory down 1.6% [24][26]. Demand - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products is 8.642 million tons, down 2.7% week-on-week [51]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel is 99,000 tons, reflecting a 5.3% decrease [41]. Raw Materials - The iron ore price index for 62% Fe is at $107.1 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.0% [61]. - Australian iron ore shipments have decreased slightly, while Brazilian shipments have increased [61]. Prices and Profits - The comprehensive steel price index has increased by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a slight improvement in the industry's profitability [75]. - The current cost of long-process rebar is 3,533 RMB per ton, with a loss of 233 RMB per ton [75][81].

中证报中证网讯(记者赵白执南)记者12月3日从中信集团获悉，近日召开的2025世界智能制造大会上公 布了全国首批领航级智能工厂项目培育名单，共15家企业上榜。中信集团旗下南京钢铁股份有限公司凭 借"产业链深度协同的特殊钢个性化定制智能工厂"项目入选，并与其他入选企业共同发起领航行动计划 联合倡议。 据悉，未来中信集团将依托"磐石"行动科技创新集群，加强产学研合作，紧密围绕产业需求开展联合攻 关，推动科技创新与产业创新深度融合。探索开放应用场景，为新技术、新产品试验和迭代提供"首用 舞台"。支持中信泰富特钢和南钢集团更好发挥链主企业作用，加强AI在材料设计、敏捷生产、智慧运 营、绿色低碳等典型场景应用，带动产业链上下游智能升级，加快培育新质生产力。 中信集团副董事长、总经理张文武在会上表示，中信集团持续加大科技创新投入，于2025年启动科技创 新"磐石"行动，全力建设以智能矿山重型装备、数字钢铁2个全国重点实验室为龙头，先进材料等4个集 团级科创中心为中坚，人工智能等N个领域级研发中心为基础的"2+4+N"科技创新集群，以核心技术筑 牢科创根基。 据介绍，工信部等六部门自2024年起联合启动智能工厂梯度培育行动 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Liquidity Impact Coefficient Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model measures the liquidity impact of index adjustments on individual stocks by calculating the ratio of net fund flows to the stock's recent average daily trading volume[12][13] - **Model Construction Process**: The liquidity impact coefficient for a stock is calculated as follows: $$ impact_{i} = \sum_{k=1}^{N} \frac{\Delta weight_{k,i} \times AUM_{k}}{amt\_avg_{i,20}} $$ - \( \Delta weight_{k,i} \): Estimated weight change of stock \( i \) in index \( k \) - \( AUM_{k} \): Total assets under management of passive products tracking index \( k \) as of the end of November - \( amt\_avg_{i,20} \): Average daily trading volume of stock \( i \) over the past 20 trading days as of the end of November[12][13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a quantitative framework to estimate short-term liquidity shocks caused by index adjustments, but it is subject to data discrepancies and assumptions, which may lead to deviations from actual results[13] --- Model Backtesting Results Liquidity Impact Coefficient Model - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Positive Impact Coefficients**: - Zhangjiagang Bank (002839 CH): 11.55[15] - Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical (600750 CH): 11.44[15] - Tower Group (002233 CH): 11.04[15] - Jichuan Pharmaceutical (600566 CH): 10.14[15] - Zhengbang Technology (002157 CH): 9.99[15] - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Negative Impact Coefficients**: - Shenzhen Expressway (600548 CH): -24.95[16] - Vanward Electric (002543 CH): -20.90[16] - Aviation Materials (688563 CH): -14.06[16] - Huaxi Biology (688363 CH): -10.81[16] - Ninghu Expressway (600377 CH): -10.54[16] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Net Fund Flow Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor estimates the net fund inflow or outflow for stocks due to index adjustments, based on changes in index weights and the total AUM of passive products tracking the index[9][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Outflow Amount: Total AUM of linked products multiplied by the stock's actual weight in the index as of the end of November - Inflow Amount: Total AUM of linked products multiplied by the estimated weight of the stock in the index post-adjustment - Weight estimation is based on free-float market capitalization and index-specific weighting rules, such as dividend yield weighting or market capitalization weighting[9][10] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a transparent and systematic approach to estimate fund flows, but it is sensitive to assumptions about future index weights and AUM changes[9][10] --- Factor Backtesting Results Net Fund Flow Factor - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Net Fund Inflows**: - Victory Precision (300476 CH): 112.61 billion CNY[10] - Dongshan Precision (002384 CH): 99.32 billion CNY[10] - Guangqi Technology (002625 CH): 77.81 billion CNY[10] - Sugon Information (603019 CH): 65.44 billion CNY[10] - Top Group (601689 CH): 53.07 billion CNY[10] - **Top 5 Stocks with Highest Net Fund Outflows**: - China Mobile (600941 CH): -40.02 billion CNY[11] - CRRC Corporation (601766 CH): -36.40 billion CNY[11] - Aluminum Corporation of China (601600 CH): -34.29 billion CNY[11] - TCL Zhonghuan (002129 CH): -30.07 billion CNY[11] - Huagong Tech (000988 CH): -27.44 billion CNY[11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Views - The expectation of overseas interest rate cuts is strengthening, which may lead to a corresponding adjustment in domestic monetary policy. The reserve requirement ratio is expected to trend downward, positively impacting short-term steel prices. Historical data shows that after 10 instances of reserve requirement cuts since 2020, the average increase in rebar prices was 20, 42, 45, 41, and 26 CNY/ton in the first five trading days post-cut, indicating a strong likelihood of price increases in the short term [2][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Steel inventory is being reduced smoothly, and there is a positive outlook for the real estate sector, leading to a slight increase in steel prices. However, the profitability of steel companies has not shown significant improvement due to sustained high prices of iron ore and coke. It is expected that steel production will continue to decline as companies proactively reduce inventory and conduct maintenance towards the end of the year. Demand may also weaken seasonally [4][5]. - The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 0.12% year-on-year but decreased by 0.81% month-on-month. The production of five major steel products decreased by 2.20% year-on-year but increased by 0.74% month-on-month, with daily molten iron production dropping to 2.3468 million tons [4][5]. Price Trends - Recent price trends show that Shanghai rebar has risen to 3,260 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled steel has reached 3,270 CNY/ton, up by 20 CNY/ton. The estimated profit for rebar is -134 CNY/ton, with a lagging cost profit of -99 CNY/ton [5]. Long-term Outlook - The renewed overseas interest rate cut cycle is expected to stabilize medium-term demand expectations for manufacturing. Although direct export demand for steel is limited, there is significant indirect demand through downstream sectors such as machinery, automotive, and home appliances. If overseas manufacturing recovers, it could stabilize steel manufacturing demand. The demand side for steel is expected to remain stable in 2026, driven by reduced production and improved cost structures [7][8].