相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensv@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denqhu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2025 年 11 月 24 日 -致性下降, 多指标指 量化择时周报 20251123 量化策略 量家 | 1 . 情绪模型观点： 市场情绪得分周内冲高回落 | | --- | | 1.1 从分项指标出发：价量一致性、主力买入力量指标快速下降 5 | | ２．其他择时模型观点：银行短期得分快速提升，价值风格与 | | 小盘风格占优 …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 10 | | 2.1 银行行业短期得分快速提升，价值风格与小盘风格占优……………… 10 | | 3．风险提示………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline across the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.81% to 3939.81 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.92% to 13080.49 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.16% to 3069.22 points, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1]. Market Performance - The total trading volume for the Shanghai Composite Index was 790.949 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index recorded a trading volume of 1135.119 billion yuan, and the ChiNext Index had a trading volume of 501.567 billion yuan [1]. - The internet e-commerce sector led the gains with an increase of 2.27%, followed by cultural media at 2.03%, and IT services at 1.17% [2]. - The education sector also saw a rise of 1.17%, while kitchen and bathroom appliances increased by 1.12% [2]. Declining Sectors - The coal mining and processing sector experienced the largest decline at -4.59%, followed by the battery sector at -4.49%, and the steel sector at -3.40% [2]. - Other sectors that faced significant drops include industrial metals at -3.29% and energy metals at -2.94% [2].

| 房地产 | | | | 香江控股 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 煤炭 | -1.80 | 107.28 | -9.36 | 云煤能源 | -9.98 | | 钢铁 | -2.04 | 93.11 | 12.47 | 海南矿业 | -8.05 | | 商贸零售 | -2.06 | 138.56 | -6.17 | 东百集团 | -10.00 | 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:28） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子 | 1.18 | 1280.66 | 1.46 | N恒坤 | 311.34 | | 通信 | 0.91 | 414.39 | -2.07 | 剑桥科技 | 8.88 | | 美容护理 | 0.55 | 25.22 | 13.70 | 敷尔佳 | 8.70 | | 计算机 | 0.47 | 700.22 | 15.87 | N南网数 | 237.43 | | 食品饮料 | 0. ...

Core Viewpoint - China Aviation Oil Group is preparing for a restructuring with another state-owned enterprise, reflecting ongoing optimization and structural adjustments in the state-owned economy [1][2]. Group 1: Restructuring Details - China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Co., Ltd. announced that its parent company, China Aviation Oil Group, will undergo a restructuring, which is still in the planning stage and requires further approval [2]. - The restructuring is not expected to significantly impact the normal operations of the company and its subsidiaries [2]. - China Aviation Oil Group currently holds 51.31% of the issued shares of the company [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The restructuring is seen as part of a broader trend of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) enhancing their core competitiveness through strategic mergers and consolidations [2][3]. - The company operates in a critical downstream segment of the aviation fuel supply chain, with a stable sales network covering national transport airports and airline customers [2]. - The restructuring aims to achieve integration of refining and distribution, enhancing the stability of the supply chain [2]. Group 3: National Policy and Trends - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, state-owned enterprises have been optimizing their layouts, with 10 enterprises undergoing strategic mergers [4]. - The restructuring aligns with national policies focusing on enhancing the efficiency and competitiveness of the entire industrial system [4][5]. - As of Q3 this year, over 70% of the revenue from central enterprises is derived from sectors related to national security and public welfare [4]. Group 4: Future Directions - The focus of SOE reforms from 2023 to 2025 will be on functional reforms that serve national strategies, with strategic restructuring and professional integration as key approaches [5][6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to optimize the flow and allocation of state capital, enhancing both qualitative and quantitative growth of the state economy [7]. - Emphasis will be placed on strategic and professional restructuring to avoid redundant construction and disorderly competition, while promoting innovation and enhancing the resilience of the industrial chain [8].

Core Insights - As of November 5, the latest market financing balance is 24,735.44 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 1.43 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Industry Summary - **Industries with Increased Financing Balance**: - The power equipment industry saw the largest increase, with a financing balance up by 27.39 billion yuan, totaling 2,111.34 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.31% [1] - Other notable increases include: - Basic chemicals: up by 2.67 billion yuan to 971.28 billion yuan (0.28% increase) [1] - Steel: up by 2.52 billion yuan to 172.81 billion yuan (1.48% increase) [1] - Construction decoration: up by 2.46 billion yuan to 390.62 billion yuan (0.63% increase) [1] - **Industries with Decreased Financing Balance**: - The electronics industry experienced the largest decrease, down by 18.55 billion yuan to 3,602.21 billion yuan, a decline of 0.51% [2] - Other significant decreases include: - Communication: down by 9.28 billion yuan to 1,096.84 billion yuan (0.84% decrease) [2] - Non-bank financials: down by 5.81 billion yuan to 1,924.73 billion yuan (0.30% decrease) [2] - Light industry manufacturing: down by 1.38 billion yuan to 142.82 billion yuan (0.96% decrease) [1] - **Financing Balance Changes by Industry**: - The steel industry had the highest increase percentage-wise, with a financing balance of 172.81 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.48% growth [1] - Conversely, the light industry manufacturing, communication, and construction materials industries saw the largest percentage declines, with decreases of 0.96%, 0.84%, and 0.73% respectively [1][2]

Core Insights - The Central Enterprise Strategic Emerging Industry Development Special Fund (referred to as the Central Enterprise Emerging Fund) was launched in Beijing on October 29, with a total initial fundraising of 51 billion yuan [1][3] - The fund aims to support state-owned enterprises in addressing industrial weaknesses and enhancing innovation in cutting-edge sectors [3] Group 1 - The first phase of the Central Enterprise Emerging Fund raised 51 billion yuan, with contributions from major state-owned enterprises such as China Mobile, Sinopec, CNOOC, China National Petroleum, China Telecom, China Unicom, China Electronics Technology Group, State Power Investment Corporation, China Baowu Steel Group, China Merchants Group, China Resources Group, China Coal Group, China Logistics, and Beijing's Xicheng District [3] - The fund is positioned as a strategic initiative by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) to accelerate the development of central enterprises in emerging industries [3]

Market Overview - As of October 27, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.18%, closing at 3996.9445 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.51%, closing at 13489.403 points [1]. Top Gainers in Hunan Stocks - *ST Jingfeng opened at 7.690 and closed at 7.690, with a daily increase of 5.05%, maintaining the same price throughout the day, with a trading volume of 24,128 lots [2]. - Tianqiao Crane opened at 4.210 and closed at 4.340, rising by 4.08%, with a daily high of 4.350 and a low of 4.150, and a trading volume of 1,184,114 lots [2]. - Aoshikang opened at 39.620 and closed at 40.920, up by 3.52%, reaching a high of 41.240 and a low of 39.600, with a trading volume of 62,736 lots [2]. - Yanjinpuzi opened at 69.010 and closed at 70.350, increasing by 3.30%, with a daily high of 71.120 and a low of 68.500, and a trading volume of 36,492 lots [2]. - Hualing Steel opened at 5.740 and closed at 5.910, up by 2.96%, with a high of 5.970 and a low of 5.740, and a trading volume of 1,103,156 lots [2]. Top Losers in Hunan Stocks - Hengli Tui opened at 0.160 and closed at 0.150, experiencing a decline of 11.76%, with a daily high of 0.170 and a low of 0.150, and a trading volume of 611,606 lots [3]. - *ST Gaosi opened at 8.300 and closed at 8.350, down by 2.45%, with a high of 8.450 and a low of 8.130, and a trading volume of 58,408 lots [3]. - Changlan Technology opened at 17.700 and closed at 17.410, decreasing by 1.97%, with a high of 17.780 and a low of 17.200, and a trading volume of 45,737 lots [3]. - Hansen Pharmaceutical opened at 6.620 and closed at 6.510, down by 1.06%, with a high of 6.620 and a low of 6.480, and a trading volume of 94,306 lots [3]. - Hunan Investment opened at 5.730 and closed at 5.630, decreasing by 1.05%, with a high of 5.740 and a low of 5.580, and a trading volume of 171,054 lots [3].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.71% to close at 3950.31 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.02% to 13289.18 points. The Sci-Tech 50 Index saw a significant increase of 4.35%, closing at 1462.22 points, and the ChiNext Index rose by 3.57% to 3171.57 points. Overall, 3025 stocks rose, 2273 fell, and 138 remained unchanged, with a total trading volume of 19742 billion yuan, an increase of 3303 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, the telecommunications, electronics, defense, electric equipment, computer, and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced notable gains. Conversely, the petroleum and petrochemical, coal, food and beverage, real estate, transportation, and steel industries faced declines [1][2]. Sector Highlights - The leading sectors in terms of growth included memory storage, circuit boards, HBM, ASIC chips, optical modules (CPO), semiconductor silicon wafers, GPUs, national big fund, semiconductor selections, wafer industry, semiconductor industry, satellite internet, servers, chips, and optical communication [2].

- The report suggests that the current market adjustment may exceed expectations, driven by the ongoing US-China trade friction and the microstructural rebalancing in the technology sector[1][3][4] - The report recommends switching from technology to dividend stocks in the short term due to the over-optimistic market expectations and the need for further consolidation[1][3][4] - The report highlights the differences between the current market environment and the one in April, noting that the market's position is relatively high, and the technology sector may be entering a phase of expectation realization[3][14] - The report identifies the structural risks in the technology sector, including high financing net inflows and concentrated holdings by public equity funds[4][15] - The report mentions the estimation model for fund positions, showing that the cumulative holdings of the TMT sector by public equity funds have reached the highest level since 2019[4][15] - The report discusses the trading congestion model, indicating that popular sectors like non-ferrous metals, electric power equipment, electronics, and communication are highly congested[4][15] - The report notes that despite the significant adjustment in technology stocks, there is still a divergence in market views on their future performance, suggesting potential opportunities for portfolio rebalancing[5][6][16] - The report includes a timing model based on micro-market structure, showing that the activity of informed traders is cooling down, indicating a cautious attitude towards the future market[18] - The report provides insights into the performance of BARRA style factors, indicating that stocks with high turnover and short-term momentum showed negative excess returns, while high volatility stocks continued to provide positive excess returns[27][28]

Core Insights - The CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index has increased by 0.47% as of October 17, 2025, with leading stocks including Silver Nonferrous, Juneyao Airlines, Shenhuo Co., Tianshan Aluminum, and Hailan Home [1] - The CSI 500 Free Cash Flow ETF (560120) rose by 1.31%, with the latest price at 1.16 yuan [1] - The CSI 500 Free Cash Flow ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 7.97% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being 2 months and a total increase of 12.37% [1] Performance Metrics - The CSI 500 Free Cash Flow ETF has an average monthly return of 6.02% and a 100% probability of profit in the months it has increased [1] - The CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index consists of 50 listed companies with high free cash flow rates selected from the CSI 500 Index, reflecting the overall performance of companies with strong cash flow generation capabilities [1] Top Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index are CIMC Group, Zhejiang Longsheng, Juneyao Airlines, Yuntianhua, Silver Nonferrous, Shougang Co., Shenhuo Co., Hisense Home Appliances, Yongtai Energy, and Tianshan Aluminum, collectively accounting for 44.66% of the index [1]