油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员： ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has initiated an investigation into Mexico's proposed trade barriers against Chinese imports, emphasizing the need to oppose unilateralism and protectionism in the context of rising tariffs from the U.S. [1] Group 1: Investigation Background - The investigation stems from Mexico's proposal submitted to Congress on September 9, 2025, to amend the Import and Export Tariff Law, which aims to increase tariffs on 1,463 tariff items, including automobiles, textiles, and machinery, with proposed rates up to 50% for certain products [3][6] - The proposed measures will only affect imports from countries without free trade agreements with Mexico, excluding products from the U.S., Canada, the EU, and Japan [3] Group 2: Impact on Trade Partners - The Ministry of Commerce stated that Mexico's unilateral tariff increase would harm the interests of relevant trade partners, including China, even within the WTO framework [4] - The proposed measures could negatively impact China's trade and investment, as they align with U.S. policies aimed at limiting Chinese access to the Mexican market [6][8] Group 3: Economic Implications - China is Mexico's second-largest trading partner, with imports from China accounting for 20% of Mexico's total imports. The proposed tariffs could affect $52 billion worth of imports, with an estimated impact of over $10 billion on Chinese goods alone [7] - The sectors most affected include steel, automobiles, textiles, and machinery, where China holds a strong comparative advantage [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market showed positive trends on September 12, 2025, with more than half of the industries rising and the valuation increasing. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market also heated up, and small - cap growth stocks were relatively dominant [1]. - The central price of convertible bonds increased, while the proportion of high - price bonds decreased. The overall valuation of convertible bonds rose, with the conversion premium rate of various types of convertible bonds increasing [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Index Performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.17% month - on - month, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and Shanghai 50 Index all declined. The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.31% [1]. - Market Style: Small - cap growth stocks were relatively dominant. Among them, small - cap growth stocks rose 0.32%, while large - cap growth and value stocks declined [1]. - Capital Performance: The trading volume in the convertible bond market reached 82.886 billion yuan, a 7.82% increase month - on - month. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2.548312 trillion yuan, a 3.40% increase. The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 37.278 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.73bp to 1.87% [1]. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - Price: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 131.41 yuan, a 0.17% increase. The proportion of high - price bonds (above 130 yuan) decreased by 0.29pct, and the proportion of bonds in the 110 - 120 yuan range increased by 1.0pct. There were no bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan [2]. - Valuation: The conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par - value convertible bonds was 29.94%, a 0.38pct increase. The overall weighted par value decreased by 0.52%. The conversion premium rates of all types of convertible bonds (including partial - equity, partial - debt, and balanced) increased [2]. Industry Performance - Stock Market: Among A - share industries, the top three decliners were communication (-2.13%), beauty care (-1.52%), and banking (-1.52%); the top three gainers were non - ferrous metals (+1.96%), real estate (+1.51%), and steel (+1.41%) [3]. - Convertible Bond Market: 18 industries in the convertible bond market rose. The top three gainers were environmental protection (+2.86%), non - ferrous metals (+1.51%), and communication (+1.37%); the top three decliners were machinery and equipment (-2.08%), media (-1.56%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-0.48%) [3]. - Different Industry Indicators: In terms of closing price, large - cycle industries rose 0.89%, while manufacturing industries declined 0.22%. In terms of conversion premium rate, all industries increased to varying degrees. In terms of conversion value, large - cycle industries rose 0.87%, while manufacturing industries declined 1.60% [3].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.24% today, with a trading volume of 1,024.16 million shares and a transaction value of 1,648.749 billion yuan, representing a 10.20% increase compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Industry Performance - The real estate sector led the gains with an increase of 2.87%, followed by non-ferrous metals at 2.60% and steel at 2.43% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included comprehensive services at -1.83%, telecommunications at -1.17%, and beauty care at -0.79% [2] Top Performing Stocks - In the real estate sector, Xiangjiang Holdings saw a significant rise of 10.11% [1] - Electric Alloy in the non-ferrous metals sector surged by 17.36% [1] - Huazhong Steel in the steel sector increased by 8.93% [1] Detailed Industry Data - Real Estate: 2.87% increase, transaction value of 257.88 billion yuan, leading stock: Xiangjiang Holdings, 10.11% increase [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: 2.60% increase, transaction value of 1,127.90 billion yuan, leading stock: Electric Alloy, 17.36% increase [1] - Steel: 2.43% increase, transaction value of 106.78 billion yuan, leading stock: Huazhong Steel, 8.93% increase [1] - Telecommunications: -1.17% decrease, transaction value of 1,084.93 billion yuan, leading stock: Tianfu Communication, -5.98% decrease [2] - Comprehensive Services: -1.83% decrease, transaction value of 53.31 billion yuan, leading stock: Dongyangguang, -5.72% decrease [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market has reached new highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3674 points, marking its highest level in over a year [1] - The trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, indicating strong investor activity [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced eight consecutive days of gains, leading to concerns among retail investors who sold stocks earlier due to fears of a market correction [1] Investment Sentiment - Analyst Li Daxiao expressed optimism that the Chinese stock market may be entering a "weight bull" phase, indicating a focus on large-cap stocks [3] - Institutional investors are reportedly entering the market, favoring blue-chip stocks as they seek to allocate capital to foundational assets [3] - With bank deposit rates at record lows (below 1.3% annually) and a sluggish real estate market, many investors are turning to the A-share market as a hopeful investment avenue [3] Corporate Investment Behavior - A notable trend has emerged where A-share listed companies are increasingly using idle funds for stock market investments, raising concerns among retail investors [5] - As of now, 57 companies have announced plans to invest over 10 billion yuan of their idle funds into securities, with Liou Co. leading at 30 billion yuan [10][11] - Companies engaging in this trend are primarily from traditional manufacturing sectors such as power equipment, construction decoration, and steel, with most of them being profitable [11] Corporate Confidence and Strategy - Companies may perceive risks in their own industries as too high, opting instead to invest in the stock market, which they view as potentially more lucrative [8] - There is a lack of confidence among companies regarding their ability to generate profits in their core sectors, leading them to seek returns through riskier stock investments [8] - The reliance on stock market investments raises questions about the long-term viability of these companies, as it suggests a lack of faith in their operational capabilities [8]

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant rise on August 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly 10-year high and the North Stock 50 hitting an all-time high. The Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index also surpassed their previous highs from October 8 of last year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85%, the Shenzhen Component by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.84% [2] - Over 4,000 stocks in the market saw gains, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 2.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 519.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking a new high for the year [2] Investor Sentiment - The current market sentiment is described as strong, although not as fervent as the sentiment observed before October 8 of last year. New investors are showing interest in entering the market [2] - A seasoned investor advises new investors to avoid listening to experienced investors, as their risk aversion may lead to missed opportunities in a bull market [4] Investment Strategies - New investors are encouraged to focus on the current market dynamics, which favor a "buy and hold" strategy rather than a defensive approach. The prevailing market logic is driven by capital and emotional premiums, making it less critical to focus on fundamentals [4] - Common investment principles for new investors include adhering to trading discipline, avoiding emotional trading, and being cautious with leverage [5] Sector Analysis - According to research reports, the current market may be in the early stages of a bull market, with three key indicators: 1. Market turnover rates are still below the highs seen at the beginning of previous bull markets [7] 2. The style of stocks favored in the market may shift from small-cap to large-cap as the bull market progresses [7] 3. Historical data shows that equity financing typically increases significantly during bull market phases, which has not yet occurred [7] - Industry focus includes sectors that have previously lagged, such as machinery and power equipment, as well as sectors expected to show improved mid-year performance, including steel, construction materials, telecommunications, electronics, and light manufacturing [9] - Long-term investment themes include consumer sectors benefiting from policy support, technology sectors focusing on AI, robotics, semiconductors, and military applications, as well as high-quality dividend stocks [8][9]

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a gradual upward trend in the market, with a focus on mid-year performance guidance. The A-share market continues to show resilience, with the ChiNext index leading gains, while the overall market remains active with daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan, a 23.9% increase from the previous period [2][15]. Economic Data - In July, the economy showed steady progress, with new growth drivers emerging. The total social financing increased by 1.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%. The industrial added value grew by 5.7% year-on-year, while high-tech industries saw a growth of 9.3% [2][3]. Financial Data - The report highlights a significant increase in M1 and M2 money supply, with M1 growing by 5.6% year-on-year and M2 by 8.8%. The M1-M2 gap continues to narrow, indicating an improvement in monetary activity [4][5]. Policy Tracking - Recent policies aimed at boosting consumption include the implementation of fiscal interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans, effective from September 1, 2025. These measures are expected to enhance economic circulation and stimulate consumer spending [7]. Market Performance - The A-share market saw a broad-based increase, with 22 out of 31 sectors rising. The communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors led the gains, with increases ranging from 6% to 8%. Conversely, sectors such as banking and steel experienced declines [13][15]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high certainty of growth, including technology growth driven by AI and semiconductors, sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies like new energy and traditional cyclical industries, and stable financial sectors [2][15].

Core Points - The average stock price of A-shares is 12.74 yuan, with 37 stocks priced below 2 yuan, the lowest being *ST Suwu at 1.04 yuan [1] - Among the low-priced stocks, 13 are ST stocks, accounting for 35.14% of the total [1] - The market performance shows that 6 of the low-priced stocks increased in price, with the highest gainers being Yatai Group, *ST Tianmao, and Pubang Shares, rising by 1.55%, 1.28%, and 1.08% respectively [1] Low-Priced Stock Rankings - The lowest priced stock is *ST Suwu at 1.04 yuan, with a daily decline of 3.70% and a turnover rate of 10.78% [2] - Other notable low-priced stocks include *ST Jinke at 1.41 yuan and Rongsheng Development at 1.43 yuan, both showing no change in price [2] - *ST Tianmao, priced at 1.58 yuan, increased by 1.28% with a turnover rate of 8.07% [2] Market Performance - Among the low-priced stocks, 22 experienced declines, with *ST Gaohong, *ST Suwu, and ST Zhongzhu showing the largest drops of 5.00%, 3.70%, and 2.66% respectively [1][3] - The overall market index, the Shanghai Composite Index, closed at 3683.46 points as of August 13 [1]

Group 1: Historical Bull Markets in A-shares - The classic bull markets in A-shares can be categorized into four types: liquidity-driven bull (2014-2015), fundamental bull driven by post-crisis economic recovery (2008-2009), "Davis Double-Click" bull driven by institutional dividends and profit growth (2005-2007), and a mixed bull market transitioning from leverage to fundamentals (1999-2001) [1][7][8] - The 2014-2015 bull market was characterized by reform expectations without profit support, with industry rotation showing "big finance on stage, technology growth taking over" [1][7] - The 2008-2009 bull market was driven by a "4 trillion" fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, leading to alternating leadership between cyclical and consumer sectors, as well as emerging industries [1][7][8] - The 2005-2007 bull market saw a broad-based rally under the backdrop of stock reform, exchange rate reform, and macroeconomic prosperity, with blue chips leading the rally in the later stages [1][7][8] - The 1999-2001 bull market was initially driven by the tech bubble, followed by a shift to cyclical sectors like energy [1][7][8] Group 2: Future Bull Market in A-shares - The future bull market in A-shares is expected to resemble the new and old kinetic energy conversion seen in Japan from 2012 to 2018, characterized by low inflation and a stable GDP growth [2][3] - The core of the new and old kinetic energy conversion bull market in A-shares is a significant reversal in pricing, with a shift from "new winning over old" to "the last song of the old" [3] - The transition is supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption, fiscal support, monetary easing, and structural transformation, particularly in sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, new consumption, and overseas expansion [3] - The current phase in A-shares is identified as "new winning over old," but caution is advised as it may transition to "the last song of the old," where cyclical sectors may lead the market [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.47% today, with a trading volume of 1,019.49 million shares and a transaction value of 15,465.24 billion yuan, representing a 5.20% increase compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The electronic industry showed the highest increase at 1.99%, with a transaction value of 2,472.28 billion yuan, up 25.40% from the previous day. The leading stock was Cambrian, which rose by 20.00% [1]. - The oil and petrochemical sector rose by 1.49%, with a transaction value of 87.03 billion yuan, an increase of 6.78%. The leading stock was Bohai Chemical, which increased by 10.27% [1]. - The communication industry increased by 1.30%, with a transaction value of 760.43 billion yuan, up 5.89%. The leading stock was Guangku Technology, which rose by 19.99% [1]. - The coal industry saw a rise of 1.29%, with a transaction value of 67.17 billion yuan, up 32.79%. The leading stock was Huai Bei Mining, which increased by 2.95% [1]. Declining Industries - The defense and military industry experienced the largest decline at 0.88%, with a transaction value of 817.84 billion yuan, up 8.51%. The leading stock was Parker New Material, which fell by 6.28% [2]. - The steel industry decreased by 0.81%, with a transaction value of 97.79 billion yuan, down 9.74%. The leading stock was Xining Special Steel, which dropped by 3.06% [2]. - The construction materials sector fell by 0.67%, with a transaction value of 153.78 billion yuan, down 15.00%. The leading stock was Tianshan Shares, which decreased by 4.48% [2].