生柴价格小幅回升，当期价差拉大。1）原料端：根据卓创资讯，2024/6/28- 2024/7/4 地沟油均价 5457 元/吨，环比 2024/6/21-2024/6/27 地沟油均价+1.1%。2）产品 端：2024/6/28-2024/7/4 全国生物柴油均价 7350 元/吨，环比 2024/6/21-2024/6/27 生柴 均价+1.4%。3）价差：国内 UCOME 与地沟油当期价差 1893 元/吨，环比 2024/6/21- 2024/6/27 价差+2.3%；若考虑一个月的库存周期，价差为 1950 元/吨，环比 2024/6/21- 2024/6/27 价差+2.1%，按照（生物柴油价格-地沟油价格/88%高品质得油率-1000 元/吨 加工费）测算，单吨盈利为 214 元/吨（环比 2024/6/21-2024/6/27 单吨盈利+18.2%）。 原料供应方面，在餐饮业市场低迷影响下，废油脂收油竞争依旧持续，供应面偏紧， 在 6 月底港口供货期影响下，带动废油脂价格略有上涨。需求方面，目前欧盟反倾销 结果公示期推迟到 7 月中旬后，市场依旧持淡弱气氛。 图7：国内 UCOME 与地沟油价格 ...

投资评级说明 无投资评级： 由于我们无法获取必要的资料，或者公司面临无法预见结果的重大不确定性事件，或者其他原因，致使 北京 深圳 Add /西城区金融街 33 号通泰大厦 15 层 P.C /（100032） Add /深圳市福田区中心四路 1 号嘉里建设广场 3 期 36 楼 P.C /（518048） 分析师声明 本报告由长江证券股份有限公司及/或其附属机构（以下简称「长江证券」或「本公司」）制作，由长江证券股份有限公司在中 华人民共和国大陆地区发行。长江证券股份有限公司具有中国证监会许可的投资咨询业务资格，经营证券业务许可证编号为： 10060000。本报告署名分析师所持中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格书编号已披露在报告首页的作者姓名旁。 本报告并非针对或意图发送、发布给在当地法律或监管规则下不允许该报告发送、发布的人员。本公司不会因接收人收到本报 告而视其为客户。本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所包含信息和建 议不发生任何变更。本报告内容的全部或部分均不构成投资建议。本报告所包含的观点、建议并未考虑报告接收人在财务状况、投 资目的、风险偏好 ...

公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------| | | | | | | | | 财务数据和估值 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 ( 百万元 ) | 12,875.06 | 12,541.29 | 13,040.51 | 14,206.15 | 15,287.87 | | 增长率 (%) | 9.33 | (2.59) | 3.98 | 8.94 | 7.61 | | EBITDA( 百万元 ) | 2,818.52 | 3,539.02 | 3,942.60 | 4,279.06 | 4,556.08 | | 归属母公司净利润 ( 百万元 ) | 1,146.34 | 1,429.64 | 1,714.40 | 1,920.14 | 2,078.29 | | 增长率 (%) | (1.46) | 24.71 ...

Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 885.63 million yuan for the first half of 2024, an increase of 195.75 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of about 28.37%[4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be approximately 871.23 million yuan, an increase of 201.18 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of about 30.02%[10] - The company reported earnings per share of 0.85 yuan for the same period last year[5] - The expected increase in net profit reflects the company's ongoing efforts in market expansion and operational efficiency improvements[12] Operational Performance - The significant increase in profit is primarily due to the improvement in the natural gas price difference compared to the same period in 2023, indicating better overall operational performance in the energy business[12] - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Hanlan (Jining) Solid Waste Disposal Co., Ltd., made significant progress in confirming power generation revenue, receiving a total of 132.6 million yuan in power generation fees, which contributed approximately 117 million yuan to the company's net profit for the period[6] - The financial performance is indicative of the company's strategic focus on enhancing its energy business and solid waste disposal operations[12] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast is based on preliminary calculations, and the specific financial data will be disclosed in the company's semi-annual report on August 26, 2024, highlighting the importance of monitoring investment risks[14] - The company has not identified any significant uncertainty factors that could impact the accuracy of this earnings forecast[13] Compliance and Transparency - The company emphasizes the accuracy, authenticity, and completeness of the information provided in the announcement, ensuring compliance with legal responsibilities[9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [25] Core Views - The acquisition of Guangdong Yufeng Environmental Protection Power Co., Ltd. is expected to make the company the largest publicly listed waste incineration company in A-shares, with a projected total capacity of 90,290 tons/day post-merger [12][11] - The indicative cancellation price for the acquisition is set at HKD 4.90 per share, representing a 20.69% premium over the announcement date, with the total equity valued at HKD 11.954 billion (approximately RMB 11.124 billion) [11] - The company aims to enhance operational synergy and significantly increase production capacity through this acquisition [24] Financial Summary - As of the end of 2023, the company reported a main business revenue of HKD 4.98 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 39.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.001 billion, down 24.88% year-on-year [11] - The company’s current stock price is RMB 22.54, with a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 18.38 billion and a total share count of 815.35 million [4] - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated to be RMB 1.61 billion, RMB 1.72 billion, and RMB 1.88 billion respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of RMB 1.97, RMB 2.11, and RMB 2.31 [24]

公司的发展无论是现金流还是分红能力以及业绩增长上面是如何去判断的那如果要看这一点我们除了数据上的测算之外我认为还要意识到的一个重要的点是产业当前发展的状况和背景是一个逐步趋于市场化的状况这一点可能也是我们跟市场不同的观点 首先我会有三个核心结论第一从并购完成之后假设我们根据最后的参透持股50%来算的话呢业绩增厚是在28%可持续的自由现金额的增厚呢是在10个亿以上也就是按照常态 去年汉南自由现金流在算的话是增厚了167%所以剔除这次并购一次性的资本开支来算的话这个可持续的现金流增厚也是非常的明显也许增厚28%可能是现金流增厚167% 第二,如果是从估值水平的角度来看,当然我们看到并购的估值是有相较于越风本身上市的估值是有溢价的如果理解这一点,结合到我们刚刚讲的行业进入了一个相对市场化的阶段,那么市场化的意义 我认为首先第一步是在于可以通过使用者的付费价格的升价去促进一个回报率的稳定预期那么改善以及改善财政压力之后直接改善到上市公司的分红水平现金流就会更加确定一些然后第二点可能更深处的点是我们认为价格市场化之后付费主体的变化将使得这个行业的属性 从一个政府管制补贴的一个阶段切入到一个真正的使用者付费的阶段如果对标 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨瀚蓝环境（600323.SH） [Table_Title] 现金并购粤丰环保控股权，增厚公司 EPS 本报告版权仅为本公司所有，本报告仅供意向收件人使用。未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布 给其他机构及/或人士（无论整份和部分）。如引用须注明出处为本公司研究所，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 刊载或者转发本证券研究报告或者摘要的，应当注明本报告的发布人和发布尔日期，提示使用证券研究报告的风险。本公司不为转 发人及/或其客户因使用本报告或报告载明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。未经授权刊载或者转发本报告的，本公司 将保留向其追究法律责任的权利。 本公司保留一切权利。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 6 / 6 更多研报请访问 长江研究小程序 公司研究 | 点评报告 风险提示 1、项目进度低于预期风险：固废项目建设、投运需要 1-2 年时间，项目进度受多方影 响，项目进度较慢将会影响收入的确认进度。 2、国补退坡风险：垃圾焚烧上网电价中部分收入来自于国家可再生能源基金补贴，在 "央地共担"的政策推动下，国家补贴逐渐退出，若地方政府 ...

2024 年 07 月 08 日 联手粤丰环保，促进"大固废"业务协同增效 "焚烧+"发展战略协同优势明显，促进公司降本增效。粤丰环保依托垃圾 焚烧发电项目的布局优势，积极推动垃圾焚烧发电产业链上下游业务的协同 发展：1）成功开拓环境卫生及相关服务，包括收购香港知名清洁和废弃物 管理服务公司庄臣有限公司的股权，成为庄臣的第二大股东，同时，通过四 川佳洁园把环境卫生业务拓展至四川，广西，广东及河北省，可为公司提供 更充足的垃圾来源；2）携手其他合作方，延伸至下游的飞灰处理及炉渣处 理业务，有望提升垃圾焚烧项目盈利空间。 粤丰环保运营及盈利能力优异，期待贡献优质增量业绩。粤丰环保 2023 年 营收 49.8 亿港元，同比下降 39.6%，主要由于大部分垃圾焚烧发电项目已 投产，项目建设收入同比减少所致，净利润 10.2 亿港元，同比减少 24.9%， 主要受境外利率大幅增加导致利息支出大幅上升 10%及人民币汇率年内下 跌约 7%所致。然而，2023 年营运相关收入（包括售电、垃圾处理及环境 卫生及其他服务收入）合计 37.7 亿港元，同比上升 1.6%。此外，2023 年 毛利率由 2022 年的 30.7% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 15% in the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company plans to privatize Guangdong Yufeng Environmental Protection with a valuation of HKD 11.9 billion, which will result in a combined ownership of approximately 92.77% post-transaction [1]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance earnings and sustainable cash flow significantly, with potential earnings growth of 28% to 45% depending on the ownership stake post-acquisition [1]. - The report highlights the company's strong integration capabilities and the strategic benefits of acquiring high-quality waste incineration projects, positioning it among the top players in the industry [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of HKD 1 billion (approximately RMB 907 million) and a total revenue of HKD 4.478 billion [1]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is estimated at RMB 1.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 9.9% from the previous year [1]. - The report forecasts a significant increase in sustainable free cash flow by 167% post-acquisition, with expected free cash flow reaching RMB 16 billion in 2024 [1]. Debt and Cost Savings - The company aims to reduce financial expenses by HKD 200 million through debt restructuring, with a potential decrease in interest expenses if the average interest rate aligns with its peer [1]. - The report details the current debt levels, with the company holding HKD 15.1 billion in interest-bearing debt and an interest expense of HKD 514 million at an average rate of 3.4% [1]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Post-acquisition, the combined waste incineration capacity will exceed 90,000 tons per day, positioning the company as a leader in the A-share market [1]. - The report emphasizes the geographical coverage of the acquired projects, which span 12 provinces, with a significant portion located in Guangdong [1].

＃assAuthor＃ 证券研究报告 ＃＃iinndduussttrryyIIdd＃＃ 环保 ＃investSuggestion＃ 司总 评 ＃相关rel报ate告dReport＃ 《【兴证环保】瀚蓝环境 2023 年年报点评：能源业务如期盈 利，分红承诺或将推动估值体系 转变》2024/04/12 《【兴证环保】瀚蓝环境 2023 年三季报点评：预计本年度能源 业务保持盈利，现金流情况大幅 改善》2023/10/27 《【兴证环保】瀚蓝环境 2023 年中报点评：能源业务扭亏为 盈，应收账款回收有望加速》 2023/08/18 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 告 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 - 2 - | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|--------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...