Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide insurance funds for long-term stable investment and to strengthen long-cycle assessments of state-owned commercial insurance companies. The assessment method for "return on net assets" has been adjusted to include annual, 3-year, and 5-year indicators with respective weights of 30%, 50%, and 20% [1][5][16] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is promoting digital transformation in manufacturing and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) through pilot programs and guidelines, aiming to enhance the digital capabilities of key industries [2][3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasized the need for state-owned enterprises to focus on strategic emerging industries and enhance their role in technological innovation and industrial control [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance allocated 197 million yuan to support agricultural disaster recovery in seven provinces affected by floods and typhoons, focusing on crop replanting and infrastructure repair [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration announced plans to increase the green power consumption ratio for steel, cement, polysilicon industries, and new data centers by 2025 [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange released guidelines for the "Science and Technology Innovation Growth Layer," allowing 32 unprofitable companies to enter this new tier without additional listing thresholds [5] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has initiated investigations into companies suspected of financial misconduct, including Yuandao Communication for false financial reporting and Jiaoda Anlian for information disclosure violations [7][32] - The National Energy Administration reported that the new energy capacity connected to the grid exceeded 203 million kilowatts in the first half of the year, marking a 108.7% year-on-year increase [20] - The automotive industry in China is experiencing stability compared to other countries, with a noted decline of only 12% in the passenger car market from 2018 to 2020, indicating strong macroeconomic support [21]

Core Viewpoint - The gold industry in A-share listed companies is experiencing significant growth in performance due to sustained high gold prices, as indicated by recent earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Hunan Gold expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 613 million to 701 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60% [4]. - Western Gold anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 130 million to 160 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 96.35% to 141.66% [4]. - Zhongjin Gold forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 2.614 billion to 2.875 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50% to 65% [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Trends - As of July 11, 2023, COMEX gold closed at 3,370.3 USD per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.34% [2][7]. - The gold price is supported by investment demand, central bank purchases, and technological uses, with mining gold accounting for 74.3% of total gold supply in the first quarter of 2025 [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - 95% of surveyed central banks believe they will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, marking the highest level since 2019, up 17 percentage points from the previous year [7]. - The "Gold+" investment products are gaining attention as they provide stability and enhance the resilience of multi-asset portfolios, especially in the context of increasing global uncertainties [8].

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 261,398.81 million and 287,538.69 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 87,132.94 million to 113,272.82 million yuan compared to the same period last year, which is a year-on-year increase of 50%-65% [1][3] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 291,153.71 million and 317,293.60 million yuan, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous year [3] - The company attributes the substantial growth in performance to seizing favorable product price increases, optimizing production and operations, and further reducing costs and increasing efficiency [3] Group 2 - The previous year's net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 259,439.38 million yuan, with earnings per share of 0.36 yuan [3] - The performance forecast data has not been audited by an accounting firm, but the company states that there are no significant uncertainties affecting the accuracy of the forecast [2]

重要内容提示： 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 证券代码：600489 证券简称：中金黄金 公告编号：2025-026 中金黄金股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预增公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日。 （二）业绩预告情况 （三）本次业绩预告的数据未经注册会计师审计。 二、上年同期业绩情况 业绩预告的具体适用情形：实现盈利，且净利润与上年同期相比上升 50% 以上。 中金黄金股份有限公司（以下简称公司）预计 2025 年半年度实现归属 于母公司所有者的净利润 261,398.81 万元到 287,538.69 万元，与上年 同期相比，将增加 87,132.94万元到113,272.82 万元，同比增加 50%-65%。 预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净 利润 291,153.71 万元到 317,293.60 万元，与上年同期相比，将增加 124,040.40 万元到 150,180.28 万元，同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for the subdivided non-ferrous metal industry has shown significant growth, with a 3.10% increase over the past month and a 13.89% increase year-to-date, indicating a strong performance in this sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for subdivided non-ferrous metals rose by 1.28% to 6711.19 points, with a trading volume of 39.135 billion yuan [1]. - The index has increased by 13.83% over the past three months [1]. - The index is composed of seven sub-indices, reflecting the overall performance of larger, more liquid listed companies in related industries [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the index include Zijin Mining (15.24%), Northern Rare Earth (5.39%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (4.48%) [1]. - The index's holdings are primarily concentrated in the Shanghai Stock Exchange (64.67%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (35.33%) [1]. Group 3: Industry Breakdown - The index's sample holdings are predominantly in the raw materials sector (99.39%), with a small representation in the industrial sector (0.61%) [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]. Group 4: Related Funds - Public funds tracking the subdivided non-ferrous metal index include several products from Huaxia and Huitianfu, indicating investor interest in this sector [2].

晨会纪要（2025/07/09） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2025/07/09） 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.09） 固定收益研究 收益率下行，评级利差普遍处于历史低位——信用债周报 行业研究 中央财经委会议释放"反内卷"新信号——金属行业 7 月投资策略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 城投债方面，稳增长和防系统性风险的背景下，城投违约的可能性很低，城投债仍可作为信用债重点配置 品种。城投债大势将由化债与发展的合力决定，短期信用风险无虞，现阶段城投债策略依然可以积极。; 2、风险提示 固定收益研究 收益率下行，评级利差普遍处于历史低位——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（6 月 30 日至 7 月 6 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-14 BP ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongjin Gold has experienced a decline for five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of -2.08% [1] Company Overview - Zhongjin Gold Co., Ltd. was established on June 23, 2000, initiated by China National Gold Group Corporation along with six other enterprises [1] - The company is a significant player in the gold industry in China [1] Financial Performance - The financial report indicates that Huatai-PineBridge Fund's Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is among the top ten shareholders of Zhongjin Gold, having reduced its holdings in the first quarter of this year [1] - Year-to-date return for the fund is 2.07%, ranking 1957 out of 3426 in its category [1][2] Fund Manager Profile - The fund manager for Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is Liu Jun, who has extensive experience in fund management since joining Huatai-PineBridge in July 2004 [3][4] - Liu Jun holds a Master's degree in Financial Management from Fudan University and has held various positions within the company, including Vice President of Index Investment Department [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [12]. Core Views - The gold market is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cut cycle [12]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight [12]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term but are supported by long-term supply constraints [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a 6.3% increase over one month, 8.6% over three months, and 16.7% over twelve months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3][21]. Gold Market - The average gold price in London was $3,331.90 per ounce, up 1.83% from the previous week [32]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 230,000 ounces to 30.47 million ounces [33]. Copper Market - LME copper closed at $9,880 per ton, a 0.25% increase from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 79,990 yuan per ton, a 0.11% decrease [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 131,800 tons, a 0.17% increase from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum price was 20,750 yuan per ton, down 0.91% from the previous week [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin Market - Domestic refined tin price was 267,820 yuan per ton, down 0.88% from the previous week [43]. - LME tin inventory decreased by 65 tons to 2,110 tons [43]. Antimony Market - Domestic antimony ingot price was 185,500 yuan per ton, down 2.11% from the previous week [43]. Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [12]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [12]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12]. - Tin industry recommendations include Xiyang Silver Tin and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance and holdings of the Dachen State-Owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund, which has shown varying returns over different time frames [1] - As of July 4, 2025, the fund's latest net value is 3.4950 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.94% [1] - The fund's one-month return is 5.21%, ranking 146 out of 871 in its category, while its six-month return is 12.34%, ranking 214 out of 862 [1] - Year-to-date, the fund has achieved a return of 10.29%, ranking 165 out of 860 [1] Group 2 - The top ten stock holdings of the fund account for a total of 67.75%, with the largest holding being Sailun Tire at 9.57% [1] - Other significant holdings include Haohua Technology (8.69%), Yun Aluminum (8.06%), and China Aluminum (8.02%) [1] - The fund was established on September 21, 2017, and as of March 31, 2025, it has a total scale of 1.155 billion yuan [1] Group 3 - The fund manager, Han Chuang, has a master's degree in economics and has been with Dachen Fund Management since June 2015 [2] - Han has held various positions, including being a member of the stock investment decision committee and managing multiple funds since 2019 [2] - He has been the fund manager for the Dachen State-Owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund since January 13, 2021 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Investors should adopt a broad perspective and not limit themselves to a single industry or company, seeking undervalued opportunities across the market and being ready to switch strategies for maximizing returns [2][3]. Investment Strategies - The first investment strategy is suitable for investors who are broad-minded, diligent, and flexible. This approach involves continuously searching for undervalued stocks across various industries [4]. - The second investment strategy focuses on identifying a specific industry and company, particularly during the bottom of a cycle, to buy and sell at the peak, capturing most of the gains from that company's performance during the industry cycle [5][6]. - For growth stocks, the strategy involves investing in companies with low market penetration that are leaders in their sector, buying during their early growth phase and selling during their stable growth phase [5]. Investor Characteristics - The first strategy is ideal for investors with a broad, active, and adaptable nature, while the second strategy is more suited for those who are deep, relatively passive, and committed to specific stocks [6][7]. - Both strategies have their own merits and risks, and successful execution can lead to high investment returns [7]. Example in Gold Stocks - Investors with broad characteristics can switch among various gold stocks like Zhongjin Gold, Libo Gold, and Shandong Gold to maximize returns, while those with a deeper focus may choose to hold onto a single gold stock throughout the investment period [7]. Snowball Three-Point Method - The Snowball Three-Point Method emphasizes long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve diversified sources of returns and risk mitigation [8].