◎记者 胡嘉树 随着上市公司半年度业绩预告陆续发布，各细分行业上半年经营图景逐渐明晰。据上海证券报记者统 计，截至7月23日晚，已有938家上市公司披露半年度业绩预告，其中496家公司实现归母净利润同比增 长（不含扭亏为盈），占比达52.88%。 从行业来看，有色金属、基础化工、生物医药等行业公司上半年业绩表现亮眼，多家公司业绩预增幅度 超过100%。从业绩驱动因素来看，供需关系改变、市场需求旺盛带动细分行业公司产品价格明显上 涨，由此大幅提振公司业绩。 量价齐升 有色金属公司业绩亮丽 农药领域上市公司业绩亮眼。先达股份预计上半年实现净利润1.30亿元至1.50亿元，同比增长2443.43% 至2834.73%。公司表示，业绩大幅增长，得益于公司主打产品烯草酮的市场售价上涨，带动产品毛利 率的增长，公司创制产品吡唑喹草酯为毛利贡献了新的增长点，以及公司不断强化成本管控等。 类似的还有苏利股份，公司预计上半年实现净利润7200万元至8600万元，同比增长1008.39%至 1223.91%。由于主要产品杀虫剂及杀菌剂量价齐升，利民股份预计上半年实现归母净利润2.60亿元至 2.80亿元，同比增长719.25%至 ...

近期金铜价格的表现如何？未来趋势如何？ 近期金铜价格表现强劲，金价在 3,400 至 3,500 美元之间波动，铜价在 9,000 美元以上波动，并且都呈现向上趋势。短期内，我们对金铜价格持乐观态度， 预计会持续向上突破。这主要是由于美联储的政策可能会进一步推动金铜价格 同步上涨。 中金黄金 20250723 摘要 中金黄金作为央企，依托资源优势和集团资产注入，黄金和铜矿年产量 稳定，分别为 18.35 吨和 8.2 万吨。沙岭项目投产后，预计年产能增加 10 吨黄金，显著提升公司黄金产量。 公司业务多元化，涵盖黄金、铜和钼，有效分散商品价格波动风险。 2025 年二季度，黄金业务毛利占比提升至 55%~60%，多元化布局为 公司估值带来向上空间。 中金黄金财务稳健，资产负债率低至 43%，且分红比例高，多年超过 55%。预计 2025 年净利润 55 亿至 60 亿元，分红比例超 50%，股息 率达 4%以上，在有色板块中具吸引力。 公司二季度业绩亮眼，单季度归母净利润达 15.8 亿至 18.4 亿元，全年 业绩预期上调至 55 亿到 60 亿元，对应市盈率仅 12 倍到 13 倍，估值 优势明显。 20 ...

黄金的相关话题 再次冲上微博热搜 引发网友热议 据央视财经，国际金价显著上涨，重回每盎司3400美元关口上方，涨至五周以来高位。截至当地时间21日收盘，纽约商品交易所8月黄金期价收于每盎司 3406.4美元，涨幅为1.43%。此外，COMEX黄金期货涨1.6%，报3412美元/盎司，现货白银涨幅也扩大至2%，报38.939美元/盎司。 7月22日晚间，伦敦现货黄金短线直线拉升，截至发稿，报3416.65美元/盎司。现货白银也突破7月14日以来的新高。 随着现货黄金猛然"狂飙"，黄金板块集体上扬，黄金股多数走强。截至7月22日收盘，西部黄金上涨6.97%，报20.86元/股；中金黄金上涨3.14%，报15.78 元/股；山东黄金上涨2.61%，报31.9元/股；紫金矿业上涨2.32%，报20.25元/股。 今年以来，现货黄金以2623美元/盎司开盘之后，一路上涨，在4月22日最高冲至3499.45美元/盎司，最高涨幅突破30%，此后开始高位震荡。 受此影响，国内金价同步回涨，多数国内金店金饰价格重返千元关口。 黄金企业上半年业绩亮眼 与年初相比，目前国际黄金期货价格已经上涨约28%。受益于此，黄金企业上半年业绩 ...

业 研 行 行业周报 相关稳增长政策将出台，大型水电工程正式开工 ——金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 年 07 月 22 日 投资要点： 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 重点品种推荐 | 洛阳钼业 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 中金黄金 | 增持 | | 山东黄金 | 增持 | | 紫金矿业 | 增持 | | 中国铝业 | 增持 | 近三月行业指数走势图 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 04/22 05/22 06/22 风险提示 原材料价格波动风险、下游需求不及预期风险、地缘政治扰动风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 18 券 研 究 报 告 钢铁：7 月 19 日雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式举行，该工程将建设 5 座 梯级电站，总投资约 1.2 万亿元；考虑到该工程对水轮发电机组需求较大，同 时可能面临高海拔腐蚀环境，或对特种钢需求带动较大，可关注特种钢（如高 强度不锈钢、水电钢、耐候钢）领域。短期累库压力有 ...

截至2025年7月22日 13:43，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨1.86%，成分股中钨高新(000657)上 涨10.02%，雅化集团(002497)上涨9.99%，神火股份(000933)上涨6.42%，电投能源(002128)，洛阳钼业 (603993)等个股跟涨。有色ETF基金(159880)上涨1.45%， 冲击4连涨。最新价报1.26元。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业 (601899)、洛阳钼业(603993)、北方稀土(600111)、中国铝业(601600)、山东黄金(600547)、华友钴业 (603799)、中金黄金(600489)、赣锋锂业(002460)、赤峰黄金(600988)、云铝股份(000807)，前十大权重 股合计占比50.02%。 有色ETF基金(159880)，场外联接A：021296；联接C：021297；联接I：022886。022886)。 国元证券指出，受区域冲突、关税政策、部分国家政策等多方面因素影响，部分金属供给端出现不足， 加剧市场需求情绪，叠加反内卷行情持续演绎，国内金属 ...

22日，黄金的相关话题冲上微博热搜，引发网友热议。 不过22日早间，现货黄金高位回落，盘中直线下挫，截至上午10时，报3386.600美元/盎司。 金价大涨，重回3400美元 21日晚，现货黄金大涨，涨超1.5%，重返3400美元/盎司上方。 此外，COMEX期货黄金涨1.6%，报3412美元/盎司。现货白银涨幅也扩大至2%，报38.939美元/盎司。 黄金企业上半年业绩亮眼 与年初相比，目前国际黄金期货价格已经上涨约28%。受益于此， 黄金企业上半年业绩亮眼 。 图片来源：千图网 西部黄金 称，经财务部门初步测算，预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的 净利润为1.30亿元 至1.60亿元 ，同比将增加6379.07万元-9379.07万元，同比增加96.35%-141.66%。 山东黄金 预计2025年上半年度实现归母 净利润25.5亿元至30.5亿元 ，同比增加84.3%到120.5%；实现归 母扣非净利润25.5亿元至30.5亿元，同比增加80.3%到115.6%。 中金黄金 预计今年上半年实现归属于母公司所有者的 净利润为26.14亿元至28.75亿元 ，与上年同期相 比(同比)将增加8.71 ...

仍然看好金银比向下修复，白银价格潜力大 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：杜飞 | S1050523070001 | | dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属(申万) 9.2 15.8 22.4 沪深 300 5.5 7.6 14.7 2025 年 07 月 21 日 ▌贵金属：黄金仍然处于盘整阶段，伦银再创多年新 高 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：白银价格 大幅上行，金银比或迎来向下修复 期》2025-07-14 2、《有色金属行业周报：需求淡 季，铜铝价格走高后或以高位震荡 为主》2025-07-07 3、《有色金属行业周报：美联储点 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为 3355.10 美元/盎司，环比 7 月 11 日+3.00 美元/盎司，涨幅为 0.09%。周内伦敦白银价格为 38.27 美元/盎司，环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices has led to significant profit increases for gold mining companies, with all eight listed companies reporting over 50% year-on-year profit growth in the first half of the year [2][4]. Group 1: Performance of Gold Mining Companies - Eight gold mining companies have disclosed their performance forecasts, with net profits collectively expected to reach between 31.76 billion to 32.81 billion yuan, all showing a year-on-year increase [2]. - Major companies like Zijin Mining are expected to report a net profit of 23.2 billion yuan, a 54% increase compared to the previous year, surpassing their total profit for 2023 in just the first half [2][3]. - China National Gold and Shandong Gold are also expected to report substantial profit increases, with Shandong Gold's net profit forecasted to rise by 84.3% to 120.5% [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Fluctuations - Gold prices have reached new highs, with London gold peaking at 3,500 USD per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 26% [2]. - Despite strong earnings, gold mining stocks have shown signs of weakness in the secondary market, with several stocks experiencing declines in the past month [9]. - The correlation between gold prices and mining stock prices remains strong in the short term, but long-term performance will depend on resource reserves, cost control, and acquisition capabilities [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry anticipates continued production increases among gold mining companies, driven by high gold prices [5]. - Analysts suggest that while gold and gold stocks have potential for further upward movement, external factors such as U.S. tariff uncertainties and rising deficits may impact future price dynamics [10].

Core Insights - Gold prices have been on a steady rise since the beginning of 2025, with significant year-to-date increases across various markets, including a 25.84% rise in London gold prices and a 25.52% rise in COMEX gold prices as of June 30 [1][4] - The performance of A-share gold mining companies has improved in line with rising gold prices, with all seven listed companies that released half-year performance forecasts expecting year-on-year profit increases, the highest being Western Gold with an expected increase of 141.66% [1][2] Company Performance - Among the seven companies that disclosed performance forecasts, Hunan Gold is expected to have a net profit of less than 1 billion yuan, while the other six companies anticipate profits exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Zijin Mining Group projecting approximately 23.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 8.1 billion yuan from the previous year [2] - The performance forecast for China National Gold is expected to show a net profit growth of 50% to 65%, leading to a significant stock price increase of 9.73% on the first trading day after the announcement [3] Market Trends - The gold market is expected to remain strong in the second half of 2025, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions, loose monetary policies, and increased gold reserves by central banks, although there may be short-term adjustment pressures [4][5] - Analysts predict that the international gold price will fluctuate between 3,000 and 3,500 USD per ounce in the second half of the year, with gold maintaining its role as a hedge against economic uncertainty [5] Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to consider gold as a strategic asset for hedging against economic uncertainties, with recommendations to gradually build positions during market adjustments [5] - Caution is advised for ordinary investors entering the gold market at current high price levels, emphasizing the importance of rational asset allocation to avoid increased financial risks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold mining sector has experienced significant profit growth in the first half of the year, driven by soaring gold prices, with all eight listed gold mining companies reporting profit increases of over 50% year-on-year [2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Eight gold mining companies have disclosed their performance forecasts, with a combined net profit of approximately 317.613 billion to 328.063 billion yuan, indicating a strong performance from leading companies that contributed nearly 90% of the total profits [2][4]. - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects a net profit of 232 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a 54% year-on-year increase, surpassing its total profit for the entire year of 2023 [3]. - China National Gold (600489.SH) and Shandong Gold (600547.SH) are also performing well, with expected net profits of 26.14 billion to 28.75 billion yuan (50% to 65% increase) and 25.5 billion to 30.5 billion yuan (84.3% to 120.5% increase) respectively [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The surge in gold prices, which reached a high of 3,500 USD per ounce, has been the primary driver of profit growth in the gold mining sector [2][5]. - Gold mining companies are increasing production significantly, with Zijin Mining reporting a 17% year-on-year increase in gold production to 410,000 tons [5]. - The industry is facing a potential slowdown in profit growth if gold prices stabilize or decline in the second half of the year [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite strong earnings, gold mining stocks have shown signs of weakness in the secondary market, with several stocks experiencing declines in price [7]. - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for major gold mining companies is currently around 13.5 times, indicating potential for valuation recovery as historical averages are closer to 20 times [7]. - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected, with estimates suggesting a range of 3,100 to 3,500 USD per ounce in the third quarter [8].