Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Ratio **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor captures the buying behavior of large funds by analyzing the proportion of large buy orders in the total transaction amount for a given day [7] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Utilize tick-by-tick transaction data to reconstruct buy and sell order data based on the bid and ask sequence numbers [7] 2. Filter transactions based on order size to identify large orders [7] 3. Calculate the proportion of large buy order transaction amounts to the total transaction amount for the day [7] **Formula**: $ \text{Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Large Buy Order Amount}}{\text{Total Transaction Amount}} $ **Factor Evaluation**: This factor effectively reflects the buying behavior of large funds [7] - **Factor Name**: Net Active Buy Transaction Amount Ratio **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the active buying behavior of investors by analyzing the net active buy transaction amount as a proportion of the total transaction amount for a given day [7] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to classify each transaction as either active buy or active sell based on the buy/sell indicator [7] 2. Calculate the net active buy transaction amount by subtracting the active sell amount from the active buy amount [7] 3. Compute the proportion of the net active buy transaction amount to the total transaction amount for the day [7] **Formula**: $ \text{Net Active Buy Transaction Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Active Buy Amount} - \text{Active Sell Amount}}{\text{Total Transaction Amount}} $ **Factor Evaluation**: This factor provides insights into the active buying tendencies of investors [7] Factor Backtesting Results - **Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Ratio**: - Top 10 stocks with the highest 5-day average values: 1. Guofa Co., Ltd. (600538.SH): 86.5%, 97.9% time-series percentile [9] 2. Jilin Expressway (601518.SH): 86.3%, 82.3% time-series percentile [9] 3. Chongqing Iron & Steel (601005.SH): 85.8%, 83.1% time-series percentile [9] 4. Zijin Bank (601860.SH): 85.6%, 62.6% time-series percentile [9] 5. Jianyuan Trust (600816.SH): 85.5%, 90.5% time-series percentile [9] - **Net Active Buy Transaction Amount Ratio**: - Top 10 stocks with the highest 5-day average values: 1. Fangda Special Steel (600507.SH): 24.8%, 100.0% time-series percentile [10] 2. Liaogang Co., Ltd. (601880.SH): 18.3%, 95.1% time-series percentile [10] 3. Overseas Chinese Town A (000069.SZ): 17.6%, 99.6% time-series percentile [10] 4. Qixia Construction (600533.SH): 14.6%, 99.2% time-series percentile [10] 5. Wanwei High-Tech (600063.SH): 14.3%, 99.6% time-series percentile [10] Additional Results for Indices, Industries, and ETFs - **Indices**: - Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Ratio (5-day average): - Shanghai Composite Index: 74.2%, 25.1% time-series percentile [12] - CSI 300: 73.1%, 10.7% time-series percentile [12] - Net Active Buy Transaction Amount Ratio (5-day average): - Shanghai Composite Index: -4.3%, 95.5% time-series percentile [12] - CSI 300: -4.5%, 100.0% time-series percentile [12] - **Industries**: - Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Ratio (5-day average): - Steel: 80.6%, 46.9% time-series percentile [13] - Construction: 79.5%, 62.6% time-series percentile [13] - Net Active Buy Transaction Amount Ratio (5-day average): - Steel: 4.0%, 40.7% time-series percentile [13] - Construction: 2.4%, 70.8% time-series percentile [13] - **ETFs**: - Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Ratio (5-day average): - ChinaAMC SSE 50 ETF (510050.SH): 89.3%, 74.1% time-series percentile [15] - GF CSI All-Index IT ETF (159939.SZ): 89.2%, 54.3% time-series percentile [15] - Net Active Buy Transaction Amount Ratio (5-day average): - Huaan SSE STAR Chip ETF (588290.SH): 17.3%, 99.6% time-series percentile [16] - Harvest CSI Battery Theme ETF (562880.SH): 13.9%, 92.2% time-series percentile [16]

Market Overview - On September 15, the special steel sector declined by 1.51%, with Fangda Special Steel leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.5, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13005.77, up 0.63% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the special steel sector showed varied performance, with notable declines in Fangda Special Steel, which fell by 5.50% to a closing price of 5.50 [2] - Other significant declines included Sha Steel Co., down 1.67% to 5.90, and Jiu Li Special Materials, down 1.18% to 22.61 [2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The special steel sector experienced a net outflow of 268 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 85.74 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for Fangda Special Steel was 575,800 shares, with a transaction value of 320 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Major stocks like Tai Steel and CITIC Special Steel saw significant net outflows from main funds, with Tai Steel experiencing a net outflow of 53.12 million yuan [3] - Conversely, retail investors showed a net inflow into stocks like Sha Steel, with a net inflow of 891.85 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [5] Core Insights - The steel industry continues to experience an oversupply situation, leading to a decline in steel prices and a year-on-year revenue decrease of 9% for the first half of 2025 and 8% for Q2 2025, although there was a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% in Q2 [2][21] - On the cost side, the decline in raw material prices has been greater than that of finished steel, resulting in a year-on-year cost reduction of 11% for the first half of 2025 and 10% for Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% in Q2 [2][24] - Profitability has significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 2540% in non-recurring profit for the first half of 2025 and 211% for Q2 2025, alongside a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47% [2][24] - The return on equity (ROE) for listed steel companies has shown recovery, with an ROE of 2.67% for the first half of 2025, up by 2.01 percentage points year-on-year, and 3.22% for Q2 2025, up by 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [2][24] Summary by Sections Revenue - The steel industry continues to face an oversupply, with revenues decreasing by 9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and 8% in Q2 2025, despite a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% in Q2 [2][21][22] Cost - The cost of steel companies has decreased by 11% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and by 10% in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% in Q2, driven by a larger decline in raw material prices compared to finished steel [2][24] Profit - Non-recurring profits have seen a substantial increase, with a year-on-year growth of 2540% in the first half of 2025 and 211% in Q2 2025, along with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47% in Q2 [2][24] Return on Equity - The ROE for the steel industry has improved, reaching 2.67% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 2.01 percentage points year-on-year, and 3.22% in Q2 2025, an increase of 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [2][24]

Market Performance - On September 12, the special steel sector rose by 0.76% compared to the previous trading day, with Shengde Xintai leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Shengde Login (300881) closed at 36.31, up 3.27% with a trading volume of 26,300 lots and a transaction value of 94.25 million [1] - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 13.22, up 2.01% with a trading volume of 169,800 lots [1] - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) closed at 4.05, up 1.76% with a trading volume of 639,800 lots [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.81, up 1.40% with a trading volume of 213,500 lots [1] - Shagang Group (002075) closed at 6.02, up 1.18% with a trading volume of 458,700 lots [1] - Xining Special Steel (600117) closed at 3.44, up 1.18% with a trading volume of 556,300 lots [1] - Jiao Jin Co. (603995) closed at 18.29, up 0.16% with a trading volume of 61,800 lots [1] - Jinzhou Pipeline (002443) closed at 7.15, down 0.28% with a trading volume of 67,300 lots [1] - Changbao Co. (002478) closed at 5.69, down 0.35% with a trading volume of 111,000 lots [1] - Fushun Special Steel (600399) closed at 5.58, down 1.24% with a trading volume of 542,000 lots [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 66.19 million from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 78.48 million [2] - The main funds' net inflow for Taiyuan Iron & Steel was -53.34 million, while CITIC Special Steel had a net inflow of 34.88 million [3] - Shagang Group had a net inflow of 19.80 million from main funds, while retail investors had a net outflow of 24.90 million [3]

Market Performance - On September 11, the special steel sector rose by 1.04%, with Xianglou New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.31, up 1.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12979.89, up 3.36% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Xianglou New Materials (301160) closed at 64.98, with a gain of 4.29% and a trading volume of 39,600 lots, amounting to a transaction value of 254 million [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.73, up 1.78%, with a trading volume of 244,000 lots [1] - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 12.96, up 1.33%, with a trading volume of 113,800 lots [1] - Other notable stocks include Jinzhou Pipeline (002443) at 7.17 (+0.99%), Shagang Group (002075) at 5.95 (+0.85%), and Jiuli Special Materials (002318) at 23.24 (+0.78%) [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The special steel sector experienced a net outflow of 112 million from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 110 million [1] - The detailed fund flow for individual stocks shows that Changbao Co. (002478) had a main fund net inflow of 6.82 million, while it faced a net outflow from speculative funds of 8.26 million [2] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) had a significant main fund net outflow of 12.08 million, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 28.79 million [2]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated positively with a recommendation for leading companies and flexible targets in both the ordinary and special steel sectors [4][4][4]. Core Insights - The steel sector experienced a recovery in profits, with the SW Steel index rising by 3.82% in H1 2025 and 15.62% from July to now, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1][9][11]. - The profitability of the ordinary steel sector saw a significant year-on-year increase of 1831.92% in Q2 2025, while special steel experienced a slight decrease of 2.72% [2][16]. - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of steel production capacity, driven by policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and improving environmental standards [3][4][55]. Summary by Sections Steel Sector Performance - In H1 2025, the steel sector's performance was weaker than the Shanghai Composite Index, but improved significantly from July onwards, aligning closely with the index [11][12]. - The ordinary steel sector showed a 4.47% increase in H1 2025 and a 17.63% increase from July to now, while special steel increased by 5.03% and 10.41% respectively [12][13]. Financial Metrics - The steel sector's total revenue in H1 2025 was 945.53 billion, down 9.16% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 157.66% to 13.14 billion [16][16]. - The gross profit margin improved to 7.47% in Q2 2025, with a net profit margin of 1.89% [19][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the ordinary steel sector, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel, which are expected to benefit from policy support and improved profitability [4][4][4]. - For the special steel sector, companies benefiting from downstream demand in automotive and renewable energy sectors are recommended, including Xianglou New Materials and Jiuli Special Materials [4][4][4]. Market Trends - The report notes that manufacturing and direct exports are supporting steel demand, while the construction sector remains weak but shows signs of stabilization [3][4]. - The steel industry is expected to undergo significant capacity optimization, with new regulations promoting high-value, low-carbon production methods [55][55].

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown significant improvement in gross profit per ton of steel in the first half of 2025, primarily due to a larger decline in raw material prices compared to steel prices, along with ongoing optimization of product structure and cost reduction efforts. The industry supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, leading to a potential recovery in profitability [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.694 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.71%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 405 million yuan, an increase of 242 million yuan year-on-year [2]. - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 903 million yuan and 1.044 billion yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 606 million yuan and 728 million yuan, and has added a forecast for 2027 of 1.205 billion yuan [2]. - The steel production and sales volume for the company in the first half of 2025 were 2.0513 million tons and 2.0495 million tons, respectively, both down 2.3% year-on-year. However, the gross profit per ton of steel increased to 368 yuan, a year-on-year rise of 42% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The company is focusing on increasing the production and sales of spring flat steel, which has a relatively higher added value, in response to market demand trends, thereby optimizing its product structure to enhance profitability [3]. - The overall commercial vehicle production and sales in China for the first half of 2025 were 2.099 million and 2.122 million units, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 4.7% and 2.6%, indicating a mild recovery in the industry that supports the demand for automotive springs and flat steel [3]. - The company remains optimistic about the improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the industry, as the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand is expected to gradually weaken, leading to stabilization in steel demand [3].

Market Performance - The special steel sector increased by 1.67% on September 8, with Fangda Special Steel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3826.84, up 0.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12666.84, up 0.61% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.70, up 3.83% with a trading volume of 385,800 shares and a transaction value of 219 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Xianglou New Materials (301160) at 64.20, up 2.88% - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) at 22.74, up 2.57% - Jiao Jin Co. (6665609) at 18.41, up 2.33% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector experienced a net outflow of 22.14 million yuan from institutional investors and 42.55 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 64.69 million yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow for individual stocks showed: - Jiao Jin Co. had a net inflow of 30.10 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - West Ning Special Steel (600117) had a net inflow of 14.83 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Fangda Special Steel experienced a net outflow of 1.29 million yuan from institutional investors [2]

Market Performance - On September 5, the special steel sector rose by 0.66% compared to the previous trading day, with Shengde Xintai leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51, up 1.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56, up 3.89% [1] Stock Performance - The following stocks in the special steel sector showed notable performance: - Shengde Xintai (300881) closed at 35.27, up 2.65% with a trading volume of 18,300 lots and a turnover of 64.38 million yuan [1] - Shagang Co. (002075) closed at 5.91, up 1.90% with a trading volume of 422,500 lots and a turnover of 24.7 million yuan [1] - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) closed at 22.17, up 1.74% with a trading volume of 100,700 lots and a turnover of 222 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector experienced a net outflow of 74.48 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 71.35 million yuan [2][3] - The following stocks had significant capital flow: - Taigang Stainless (000825) had a net inflow of 9.22 million yuan from retail investors, despite a net outflow of 20.85 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xi'an Special Steel (600117) had a net inflow of 9.31 million yuan from retail investors, with a net outflow of 2.17 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Market Overview - On September 4, the special steel sector declined by 0.96%, with Xianglou New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3765.88, down 1.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12118.7, down 2.83% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the special steel sector showed varied performance, with Jinzhou Pipeline up by 1.71% and Xianglou New Materials down by 2.59% [2] - The trading volume and turnover for notable stocks included: - Jinzhou Pipeline: 180,000 shares, turnover of 128 million yuan - Xianglou New Materials: 24,500 shares, turnover of 153 million yuan - Shagang Co.: 608,400 shares, turnover of 356 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The special steel sector experienced a net outflow of 128 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.24 billion yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks indicated: - Fushun Special Steel: Main funds net inflow of 13.54 million yuan, retail net outflow of 7.86 million yuan - Xianglou New Materials: Main funds net outflow of 5.03 million yuan, retail net inflow of 2.94 million yuan [3]