Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) with a 12-month price target of Rmb2,244.00, indicating an upside potential of 52.9% from the current price of Rmb1,467.39 [80]. Core Insights - Recent volatility in wholesale prices is attributed to deeper seasonal discounts via online platforms, waning speculative demand, increased direct sales, and weak retail sentiment during the Dragon Boat Festival [105][106]. - Moutai's wholesale prices have historically rebounded after significant drawdowns, indicating resilience in consumer demand despite current price fluctuations [106]. - The report highlights that Moutai offers the highest distribution profits among Chinese baijiu brands, with channel gross profits exceeding Rmb1,000 per bottle compared to less than Rmb100 for other spirits [106]. - The affordability ratio of Moutai's original-case wholesale price is at 41% of urban disposable income, aligning with the 10-year average, suggesting long-term support for price levels as urban incomes grow [106]. Summary by Sections Wholesale Price Trends - Recent measures by Moutai, including ceasing the open-case policy and controlling shipments, have led to a 10% increase in wholesale prices for unpacked and original case Feitian Moutai [115]. - The report notes that Moutai's shares have declined by 9.3% in June, contrasting with MSCI China's decline of 2.7% and CSI300's decline of 3.3% [105]. Online Sales and Market Penetration - Online sales in the spirits category remain under-penetrated, accounting for approximately 11% of total spirits retail sales in 2023 [5][126]. - Moutai's online sales have increased significantly, contributing 16.1% of its total revenue, while other brands like Wuliangye and Laojiao have lower online sales percentages [126]. Channel Actions and Market Dynamics - Moutai has implemented various channel actions to stabilize prices, including suspending direct sales to enterprise group-buy channels and controlling prepayments [115][143]. - The report emphasizes that the current market dynamics, including the actions taken by Moutai, are expected to enhance its valuation and provide a better investment opportunity [108].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [2]. Core Views - Recent price weakness in Moutai has led to the suspension of large box Moutai releases, as well as the halting of aged and premium Moutai offerings. This is part of the company's strategy to stabilize prices and restore market confidence [3]. - The company has implemented several price support measures to boost market confidence, including the cancellation of large box releases and the suspension of certain product offerings. These actions are expected to quickly adjust the supply-demand relationship for key products and stabilize overall pricing [3]. - Short-term disturbances in the market have led to a supply-demand imbalance, primarily due to weak consumer demand and inventory adjustments. However, with the end of promotional activities and an increase in demand for events like graduation parties, product prices are expected to rise naturally [6]. Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 1,867.53 billion [5]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1,768.20 billion, 2,053.62 billion, and 2,367.13 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 880.04 billion, 1,025.91 billion, and 1,181.09 billion [10][11]. - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 70.06, 81.67, and 94.02 respectively, with P/E ratios of 21.08, 18.08, and 15.70 [10][11].

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 2286.53 RMB [4] Core Views - The recent fluctuation in Feitian Moutai's wholesale price is attributed to weak demand and short-term channel behavior, with limited downside risk expected [2] - Post-risk clearance, Moutai's wholesale price and stock price are anticipated to stabilize and reach a new equilibrium [2] - Moutai's wholesale price serves as a crucial indicator for the liquor industry, driven by supply-demand dynamics and financial attributes [9] - Historical price trends show that Moutai's price increases are often driven by multiple supply-demand factors, while financial attributes amplify price cycles [22] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 127,554 million RMB in 2022 to 232,697 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 16.3% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 62,717 million RMB in 2022 to 118,722 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 17.0% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 49.93 RMB in 2022 to 94.51 RMB in 2026 [3] - ROE is expected to improve from 31.8% in 2022 to 41.5% in 2026 [3] Historical Price Analysis - Moutai's wholesale price has experienced two rises and three falls over the past 15 years, with price increases driven by supply-demand factors and financial attributes reinforcing price cycles [22] - The first rise (2008-2011) was driven by infrastructure investment and dual demand for consumption and investment [25] - The first fall (2012-2016) was due to industry adjustments, shrinking demand, and inventory pressure [30] - The second rise (2016-2021) was fueled by real estate prosperity and the financial attributes of Moutai [35] - The second fall (2021-2022) was marked by a peak in asset prices and declining demand [43] - The third fall (since March 2024) is attributed to weak demand recovery [54] Current Price Fluctuation Analysis - The recent price drop is primarily due to weak demand and intense competition among scalpers and e-commerce platforms [56] - The company has adjusted its supply strategy to stabilize prices, and the panic-driven price fluctuations are expected to subside [56] - Three methods are used to estimate the short-term equilibrium price range for Feitian Moutai, suggesting a bottom range of 2000-2200 RMB for loose bottles [52] Industry Comparison - Moutai's financial performance and valuation metrics are compared with other leading liquor companies, showing its strong position in the industry [70] - Moutai's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 30.88 in 2022 to 16.31 in 2026, reflecting its strong earnings growth potential [3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------------------|-------------------------| | | | | | [table_Authors | 訾猛 ] ( 分析师 ) | 李美仪 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38038667 | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | limeiyi026738@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880122070042 | [Table_Industry] 食品饮料/必需消费 贵州茅台(600519) | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-----------------| | | | | 52 周内股价区间（元） | 1577.00-1897.00 | | 总市值（百万元） | 2,070,779 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 1,256/1,256 | | 流通 B 股 /H 股（百万股） | 0 ...

每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利 30.876 元（含税） 相关日期 证券代码：600519 证券简称：贵州茅台 公告编号：临 2024-017 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司 2023 年年度 权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： （一）发放年度：2023 年年度 （二）分派对象： 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有 1 限责任公司上海分公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的 本公司全体股东。 （三）分配方案： | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2024/6/18 | － | 2024/6/19 | 2024/6/19 | 差异化分红送转：否 一、通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司 2024 年 5 月 29 日的 2023 年度股东大会审 议通过。 二、分配方案 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return of 5% to 15% above the market benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [12]. Core Views - The company emphasizes quality and sustainable development, with a focus on maintaining its leading position in the industry. The new chairman, Zhang Deqin, highlighted the importance of quality as the core competitive advantage and outlined five key goals for 2024, including solidifying core business, ensuring sustainable growth, and enhancing brand culture [11][10]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 15% year-on-year for 2024, with a similar increase in operating costs. The projected net profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 15.1% [11][23]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 174,500 million, 199,053 million, and 225,035 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15.9%, 14.1%, and 13.1% [5][23]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 86,043 million, 98,765 million, and 111,855 million, with growth rates of 15.1%, 14.8%, and 13.3% respectively [5][23]. - The company maintains a gross margin of 92.1% across the forecast period, indicating strong profitability [5][23]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 68.49, 78.62, and 89.04 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][23]. Recent Company Performance - Over the past 12 months, the company's relative performance compared to the CSI 300 index has shown a decline of 4.93% over one month, 3.88% over three months, but an increase of 7.92% over twelve months [10]. - The company has demonstrated resilience in its performance, maintaining a strong market position despite challenges [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, with a target price of 1,653.20 CNY [13][17]. Core Views - The company aims for a revenue growth target of 15% for 2024, indicating a strong performance outlook [17]. - The new chairman, with extensive experience in the liquor industry, is expected to lead the company towards stable and sustainable development [17]. - The report predicts revenue growth rates of 15.4%, 16.1%, and 17.1% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 16.9%, 17.6%, and 17.9% for the same years [17]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue (in million CNY) is projected to increase from 150,560 in 2023 to 236,138 in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.0% in 2023 and 17.1% in 2026 [2]. - Net profit (in million CNY) is expected to rise from 74,734 in 2023 to 121,184 in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.2% in 2023 and 17.9% in 2026 [2]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 92% across the forecast period [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to grow from 59.49 in 2023 to 96.47 in 2026 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27.6 in 2023 to 17.0 in 2026, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [2]. Strategic Insights - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining its core competitiveness, which includes quality, brand, craftsmanship, environment, and culture [13]. - The chairman highlighted the need for shareholder understanding and support, as well as the importance of talent attraction and innovation for future growth [13]. - The report suggests that the current phase of strategic execution will lead to improvements in sales and financial performance over the next few years [16].

所属行业：食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 当前价格(元)：1,648.45 1.《贵州茅台（600519）2024 一季报 点评：一季度税金影响业绩，开局奠定 优良基础》，2024.4.29 2.《贵州茅台（600519）2023 年报点 评：23 年稳健收官，24 年收入目标 15%左右》，2024.4.7 3.《贵州茅台（600519）》，2023.11.2 投资要点 买入（维持） 市场表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | -3.32 | -4.23 | -2.17 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | -2.64 | -3.80 | -3.36 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 贵州茅台（600519.SH）：i 茅台运营复 盘报告："享约申购"主导营收，"畅 享云购"有望贡献增长 创新营销模式，酒企教字化营销成功范例 1.1. 酒企垂直电商标杆与数字化转型先锋 i 茅台是茅台集团数字 ...

证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 投资建议 预测个股相对同期证券市场代表性指数涨幅 | | 1 | 买入 | > 20% | | 2 | 增持 | 10% — 20% | | 3 | 中性 | -10% — 10% | | 4 | 卖出 | < -10% | 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，华鑫证券研究部门及相关研究人员力求准 确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。我们已力求报告内容 客观、公正，但报告中的信息与所表达的观点不构成所述证券买卖的出价或询 价的依据，该等信息、意见并未考虑到获取本报告人员的具体投资目的、财务 状况以及特定需求，在任何时候均不构成对任何人的个人推荐。投资者应当对 本报告中的信息和意见进行独立评估，并应同时结合各自的投资目的、财务状 况和特定需求，必要时就财务、法律、商业、税收等方面咨询专业顾问的意 见。对依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，华鑫证券及/或其关联人员均不 承担任何法律责任。本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) [2] Core Views - The new chairman emphasized the company's commitment to its core competitiveness, focusing on quality, brand, craftsmanship, environment, and culture [2] - The company aims to address concerns regarding the price gap between factory and terminal prices by conducting extensive research on consumer capacity and market dynamics [2] - Guizhou Moutai believes in a cooperative relationship with competitors, suggesting mutual improvement and progress within the industry [2] Financial Projections - The projected main revenue for Guizhou Moutai is expected to grow from 150,560 million yuan in 2023 to 227,558 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 18.0%, 15.9%, 14.6%, and 13.8% respectively [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 74,734 million yuan in 2023 to 117,892 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 19.2%, 17.4%, 16.1%, and 15.7% respectively [8] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 59.49 yuan in 2023 to 93.85 yuan in 2026 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 33.4% in 2023 to 44.5% in 2026 [8]