行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料/ 白酒Ⅱ 2025 年 11 月 10 日 黎明前夕，曙光将至 看好 ——白酒进入底部战略性布局期 相关研究 本期投资提示： ⚫ 战略性看多白酒。复盘 2012-2015 板块表现，股价拐点领先基本面拐点出现，我们判 断基本面拐点 26Q3 出现。展望 26 年，若基本面如期修复，我们预计 26 年底-27 年 将迎来估值与业绩双击。对中长期资金来讲，已可以对优质企业进行长期定价。因此， 我们认为对优质公司而言，已经进入战略配置期。但这个阶段还需注意几点，1、对基 本面仍要保持耐心；2、企业的调整改善是分化并有先后的，这个阶段个股表现会有差 异；3、展望年底到明年，预计股价回报的主要贡献来自估值，对空间要合理预期。白 酒重点推荐：泸州老窖、山西汾酒、贵州茅台、五粮液，关注迎驾贡酒、金徽酒、古井 贡酒、今世缘、洋河股份等。 ⚫ 重要信息回顾： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 《 白酒 2025 年三季报总结 —— 25Q3 基 本面加速探底，板块进入战略配置期》 2025/11/04 《板块进入战略配置期——食品饮料行业 ...

以最新收盘价计算，A股平均股价为14.02元，其中股价超过100元的有155只，相比上一个交易日增加3 只。 百元股作为判定市场热度的信号之一，历来受到投资者关注。证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至11月10 日收盘，沪指报收4018.60点，上涨0.53%，A股平均股价为14.02元，个股股价分布看，股价超过100元 的有155只，股价在50元至100元的有457只，股价在30元至50元的有779只。 机构评级方面，上述股价超百元个股共有中科曙光、芯源微、拓荆科技等5只个股今日获机构买入评 级。（数据宝） 高价股一览 | 代码 | 简称 | 最新收盘价（元） | 今日涨跌（%） | 换手率（%） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 1462.30 | 2.02 | 0.39 | 食品饮料 | | 688256 | 寒武纪 | 1391.50 | -2.86 | 0.02 | 电子 | | 688498 | 源杰科技 | 602.00 | 2.01 | 0.07 | 电子 | | 688027 | 国盾量子 | 522.00 ...

Group 1 - The liquor concept sector rose by 3.01%, ranking third among concept sectors, with 45 stocks increasing in value, including Zhongrui Co., Shide Liquor, and Kuaijishan hitting the daily limit [1][2] - Leading stocks in the liquor sector included Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which increased by 8.23%, 6.73%, and 6.35% respectively [1][2] - The sector saw a net inflow of 2.787 billion yuan from main funds, with 30 stocks receiving net inflows, and 7 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflow [2][3] Group 2 - The top net inflow stock was Kweichow Moutai, with a net inflow of 833 million yuan, followed by Wuliangye, Jiu Gui Jiu, and Shide Liquor with net inflows of 608 million yuan, 386 million yuan, and 258 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Zhongrui Co., ST Yanshi, and Kuaijishan had the highest net inflow ratios at 34.96%, 22.05%, and 20.99% respectively [3] - The overall performance of the liquor sector indicates strong investor interest and confidence, as evidenced by the significant net inflows and stock price increases [2][3]

白酒 Q3 降速释压，关注高股息饮料标的 ——食品饮料行业周报 本报告导读： 成长优先，并重视低估值及长期成长确定性较强的传统消费龙头价值修复。当前软 饮料板块中低估值高股息标的股息率突显，看好后续基本面&估值修复带来的投资 机会。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 业 双 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.08 [table_Authors] 2025-11-10 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：饮料、食品原料、零食等成长标的业绩优势持续，白酒 预期加速修正、部分出清。1）白酒阶段性重点关注弹性标的港股珍 酒李渡、舍得酒业、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、酒鬼酒等；中期重点关 注稳健标的五粮液、贵州茅台、迎驾贡酒、今世缘、古井贡酒等； 2）饮料结构性高增，成长维度重点关注东鹏饮料、农夫山泉（港股）、 安德利；同时重视高股息低估值稳健品种，重点关注承德露露、李 子园、康师傅控股（港股）、统一企业中国（港股）、中国食品（港 股）、中国旺旺（港股）。3）零食及食品原料成长标的：重点关注百 龙创园、盐津铺子、三只松鼠、西麦食品、卫龙美 ...

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 2025 performance showed revenue of 130.9 billion yuan and net profit of 64.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 6.32% and 6.25% respectively [2] - The company plans to repurchase 1.5 to 3 billion yuan of shares for cancellation and intends to distribute 30 billion yuan in dividends, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [2] - The food and beverage sector has seen a rise of 3.22% as of November 10, 2025, indicating strong market performance [1][4] Group 2: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - Recent pressure on the oil market has been noted, with WTI and Brent prices declining due to rising U.S. inventories and a decrease in rig counts [3] - Refining margins have significantly improved, leading to better profitability for refineries, supported by diesel demand from logistics during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [3] - The oil price outlook remains uncertain, with potential downward pressure in the medium to long term due to OPEC+ production increases [3] Group 3: Electronics Industry - Strong demand for AI is driving price increases in storage chips and certain passive components, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [5] - The AI sector's growth potential is still underestimated by the market, suggesting investment opportunities in the electronics sector [5] - The electronic sector has seen a decline of 0.51% as of November 10, 2025, reflecting recent market volatility [8] Group 4: Communication Industry - The communication sector remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the computing power supply chain, with strong performance reported in overseas companies [6] - The communication sector has also experienced a decline of 0.50% as of November 10, 2025, amidst market fluctuations [8] Group 5: Economic Indicators - October's CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [9] - The PPI turned positive for the first time this year, indicating potential upward pressure on prices in the fourth quarter [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a surge in consumer stocks in A-shares, particularly in sectors such as duty-free, airports, tourism, food, and liquor, with significant gains in companies like China Duty Free and Kweichow Moutai [1][2] - The October CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, marking the highest level in eight months, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, continuing a six-month upward trend [2] - The implementation of new duty-free policies in Hainan saw a shopping amount of 5.06 billion yuan and 72,900 shoppers in the first week, representing year-on-year growth of 34.86% and 3.37% respectively [2] Group 2 - The tourism ETF rose by 5%, with major holdings including China Duty Free and Shanghai Airport, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [3] - The food and beverage ETF increased by 2.99%, with a total scale of 6.064 billion yuan and a net inflow of 2.973 billion yuan in the second half of the year, leading its category [3] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the food index stands at 20.59, which is at the 7.55% historical percentile over the past decade, suggesting a potential value opportunity in the consumer sector [2]

11月10日，A股三大指数集体高开，截至收盘，沪指涨0.53%，深证成指涨0.18%，创业板指跌0.92%。 板块上，白酒股强势拉升，舍得酒业、酒鬼酒双双涨停，泸州老窖涨超8%，山西汾酒、古井贡酒、金 徽酒等跟涨。 消息面上，国家统计局数据公布，10月份CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核 心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续第6个月扩大。 开源证券表示，白酒企业已进入深度调整期，行业需求下行的结果已由终端经渠道传导至厂家，体现为 酒企公司报表业绩增速放缓。后续展望，酒厂仍克制压货以推进渠道库存去化，为长期健康发展奠定基 础，但短期报表仍处于出清阶段。开源证券认为当前白酒板块已接近左侧布局区间，当前可逐步开展配 置，优先选择业绩出清或底部确认标的，建议关注贵州茅台、泸州老窖、山西汾酒、舍得酒业、洋河股 份等。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market showed positive performance on November 10, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.53%, driven by strong gains in the liquor sector, particularly among leading brands [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector index closed at 2349.92 points, up by 2.92%, with 20 liquor stocks experiencing increases, including Shede Liquor and Jiu Gui Liquor hitting the daily limit [1] - Major liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe Brewery all reported significant stock price increases, with Luzhou Laojiao leading at an 8.23% rise [1] Company Summary - Kweichow Moutai's closing price reached 1462.30 CNY per share, up by 2.02% [1] - Wuliangye closed at 120.80 CNY per share, up by 3.47% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 198.99 CNY per share, up by 6.35% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 142.49 CNY per share, up by 8.23% [1] - Yanghe Brewery closed at 71.55 CNY per share, up by 3.01% [1] Analyst Insights - CITIC Securities indicated that while short-term consumption recovery may fluctuate, the medium to long-term demand remains resilient, suggesting that leading liquor companies are likely to maintain steady growth due to their brand strength and channel management capabilities [1]

Group 1 - A-share market shows a divergence in hotspots, with consumer sectors like duty-free and food & beverage leading the gains, particularly China Duty Free Group hitting a two-year high [1] - The implementation of new duty-free policies in Hainan has resulted in a significant increase in shopping amounts and visitors, with a total of 5.06 billion yuan in shopping and 72,900 visitors, marking year-on-year increases of 34.86% and 3.37% respectively [1] - AI storage concept stocks have surged following a 50% price increase in NAND flash contracts by SanDisk, indicating supply tightness in the storage market [1] Group 2 - Market analysts predict rapid rotation of hotspots in the absence of policy and performance catalysts, with consumer sectors being crucial for economic stability [2] - The third-quarter reports of listed companies show resilience in fundamentals, highlighting structural strengths amid a focus on high-quality development and technological self-reliance [2] - The current tightening of overseas liquidity is not expected to lead to systemic risks, and A-shares are anticipated to maintain resilience supported by stable economic and policy expectations [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, the restructuring of international monetary order and the AI revolution are expected to support the performance of Chinese assets, with a more balanced market style anticipated [3] - Recommendations for investment focus on three main lines: growth in prosperous sectors, breakthroughs in external demand, and cyclical reversals [3] - The A500 ETF is showing positive momentum, with significant gains in key stocks such as Li'an Micro, Jiuan Medical, and China Duty Free, indicating a strong performance in the A-share market [3]

风险提示：以上产品由基金管理人发行与管理，代销机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理责任。投 资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基金法律文件，了解基金 的风险收益特征，选择与自身风险承受能力相适应的产品。基金过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金投 资须谨慎！销售机构（包括基金管理人直销机构和其他销售机构）根据相关法律法规对本基金进行风险 评价，投资者应及时关注基金管理人出具的适当性意见，各销售机构关于适当性的意见不必然一致，且 基金销售机构所出具的基金产品风险等级评价结果不得低于基金管理人作出的风险等级评价结果。基金 合同中关于基金风险收益特征与基金风险等级因考虑因素不同而存在差异。投资者应了解基金的风险收 益情况，结合自身投资目的、期限、投资经验及风险承受能力谨慎选择基金产品并自行承担风险。中国 证监会对上述基金的注册，并不表明其对上述基金的投资价值、市场前景和收益做出实质性判断或保 证。基金投资须谨慎。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：杨赐 11月10日，截至14时30分，消费龙头ETF（516130）盘中表现稳健，场内价格现涨2.0%，成交额为 1370.1 ...