Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [5] Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with the "opening red" sales expected to remain under pressure year-on-year, while brand differentiation is evident. Positive feedback from high-end liquor is significantly boosting market confidence, and a shift in style and improved expectations may catalyze liquor stock prices [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The liquor market is experiencing a deep adjustment, with sales and revenue expected to decline throughout the year. However, there are signs of marginal improvement starting from Q4 2025, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye leading the market [6] High-End Liquor Performance - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, with Moutai and Wuliangye implementing strategies to stabilize prices and enhance channel profits. Moutai's sales performance has improved, with significant user engagement and order volume [6][7] Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks with price elasticity, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as other brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu, which are expected to clear inventory [6][7] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its current cycle, with potential catalysts for stock prices including improvements in sales, price increases, and inventory reduction. Positive signals from policy changes could further enhance market sentiment [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a price rebound, with the average retail price of the top ten liquor products reaching a new high since the beginning of 2026, driven by strong performance from leading brands [1]. Price Trends - The total price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 9153 yuan, an increase of 35 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Among the top products, the price of Feitian Moutai has risen by 10 yuan per bottle, while Xijiu Junpin has also increased by 10 yuan, marking a five-day consecutive rise [4]. - The overall price movement shows seven products increasing and three decreasing, indicating a strong market trend [4]. Specific Product Prices - Feitian Moutai (53 degrees, 500ml) is priced at 1730 yuan, up 10 yuan from yesterday [2]. - The price of the premium Moutai (53 degrees, 500ml) is 2398 yuan, up 5 yuan [2]. - Other notable price changes include Wuliangye (805 yuan, up 1 yuan), and Guojiao 1573 (889 yuan, down 5 yuan) [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The price increase is attributed to strong demand during the pre-Spring Festival period and tight supply channels [6]. - The market sentiment is cautious, with brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 showing stable prices, contrasting with the volatility seen in Moutai [6]. - The introduction of new sales channels for Moutai has had a significant impact on retail prices, with the official platform pricing Feitian Moutai at 1499 yuan per bottle [5].

注：上证指数近10年（2016年至2025年）春节前5个交易日涨跌幅情况 随着春节假期临近，A股行情即将迈入最后一周，投资者纷纷聚焦今年能否继续迎来"红包行情"。从历 史数据上看，上证指数近10年节前5个交易日上涨比例达7成，平均涨幅近0.2%。其中，在2021年、 2024年、2023年节前，上证指数涨势较优，而在2022年、2020年、2018年节前则表现不佳。 受节前交易转淡影响，A股市场近期量能数据持续下滑，沪深京三市今日成交额2.16万亿元，继续刷新 年内最低纪录。其中，作为观测市场情绪关键指标的融资余额近日也大幅回落，截至2月5日数据，A股 融资余额目前规模达2.66万亿元，已连续6个交易日出现下降态势，并创1月12日以来近4周新低，期间 累计净卖额达611.9亿元。 双创指数表现较优，55%板块节前获收涨 市场主要指数方面，在近10年节前5个交易日期间，科创50、创业板指表现较优，平均涨幅分别达 2.4%、2.2%，同时以中证500、沪深300为代表的中盘股、大盘股指数表现优于以中证2000、国证2000 为代表的小微盘股。以上涨比例统计（不足10年以实际年份统计），创业板指、深证成指、红利指数 ...

Group 1 - The traditional promotional season for liquor, particularly for Moutai, is approaching as spring nears, with high demand and tight supply reported at retail outlets [1] - The price of Feitian Moutai has seen significant fluctuations, with reports of price increases occurring multiple times in a single day, drawing comparisons to the volatility of gold and stocks [1] - The market price for Feitian Moutai has recently stabilized around 1,764 yuan after reaching a peak of 1,813 yuan on January 31 [3] Group 2 - The market price for the Year of the Horse Moutai has increased by 57% recently, surpassing the price increase of Feitian Moutai, with a current price of 2,998 yuan [3] - Retail promotions for Moutai have been launched by major supermarkets, with prices as low as 1,616.5 yuan per bottle during promotional events [10] - Other high-end liquors like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 have maintained stable prices after adjustments in 2025, while promotional strategies have shifted towards increasing bottle opening rates [10]

Core Viewpoint - The trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connects indicate significant investor activity, with notable inflows and outflows in various sectors and stocks, reflecting market sentiment and investment trends. Trading Volume Summary - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 134.14 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 153.30 billion [1]. Top Stocks by Trading Volume Shanghai Stock Connect - The top traded stocks included: - Kweichow Moutai (28.75 billion) - Zijin Mining (26.79 billion) - Industrial Fulian (20.01 billion) [2]. Shenzhen Stock Connect - The leading stocks were: - CATL (59.16 billion) - Tianfu Communication (43.66 billion) - Zhongji Xuchuang (36.11 billion) [3]. Sector Performance - Sectors such as oil and gas, batteries, and chemicals showed strong performance, while consumer sectors experienced declines [4]. Major Fund Inflows and Outflows Fund Inflows - The top sectors with net inflows included: - New Energy (51.65 billion, 1.97%) - Basic Chemicals (37.74 billion, 3.09%) [5]. Fund Outflows - The sectors with the highest net outflows were: - Defense and Military (50.28 billion, -5.27%) - Cultural Media (42.94 billion, -4.62%) [6]. Individual Stock Fund Monitoring Net Inflows - The stocks with the highest net inflows included: - Wuzhou Xinchun (11.85 billion, 30.31%) - Daji Shares (10.68 billion, 35.91%) [7]. Net Outflows - The stocks with the highest net outflows included: - Xinyi Sheng (29.11 billion, -17.14%) - Zhongbiao Xuchuang (15.56 billion, -8.69%) [8]. ETF Trading Summary Top ETFs by Trading Volume - The leading ETFs by trading amount included: - Gold ETF (19.03 billion, -5.10%) - A500 ETF Fund (14.96 billion, -4.58%) [9]. ETFs with Highest Growth in Trading Volume - The ETFs with the highest growth in trading volume included: - Brazil ETF (19.82 billion, 298.93%) - Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (4.25 billion, 178.74%) [10]. Futures Positioning - Among the four major futures contracts, both long and short positions were reduced, with the IM futures contract seeing a significant increase in short positions, indicating heightened bearish sentiment [11]. Institutional Activity Buying Activity - Notable institutional buying included: - Enjie Shares (10.00%, 180 million) - Red Treasure (1.94%, 113 million) [12]. Selling Activity - Significant selling activity was observed in: - Jieli Suojun (2.79 billion) [13]. Retail and Quantitative Fund Activity Retail Activity - Retail investors showed reduced activity, with notable purchases in: - Jieli Suojun (1.63 billion) [14]. Quantitative Fund Activity - Quantitative funds were active, with significant purchases in: - Enjie Shares (1.07 billion) [15].

今日，《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者从市场获悉，部分茅台经销商3月份首批飞天茅台配额已告售罄。 一位经销商透露，本次配额实行申请制，经销商可申请以四瓶装整箱形式提货，申请量将从其3月既定 配额中扣除。该经销商表示，这次申请到的首批配额约占其当月总配额的30%至40%。 此外，据市场消息称，部分经销商已开始申报第二批追加配额，该消息虽未获上述经销商证实，但在一 定程度上能反映出当前飞天茅台在市场上的紧俏态势。 随着春节临近，飞天茅台批价持续稳步上升。目前市场批价约1660元/瓶，较上月末上涨近100元。终端 市场方面，记者了解到，近日飞天茅台终端售价已普遍超过1700元/瓶。由于货源趋紧，已有经销商表 示库存售罄，市场呈现供不应求态势。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is in a state of rotation as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, and it is currently accumulating strength for the Spring rally. It is recommended to allocate technology and consumption sectors evenly and make low-cost layouts [7][14]. - In the bond market, the capital situation remains relatively loose. Falling interest rates and risk aversion continue to drive up the bond market. In the medium to long term, moderately loose monetary policies are expected to strengthen the demand for bond allocation [10][14]. - In the commodity market, short-term fluctuations in precious metals are caused by margin adjustments of domestic and foreign exchanges, but the long-term outlook remains positive [10][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情Analysis Stock Market - The A-share market is in a state of shock adjustment with shrinking trading volume. Overseas market adjustments may have affected market sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.73%. The total trading volume was 2.16 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.4% from the previous day [2]. - Cyclical sectors led the gains, while consumer and technology sectors adjusted. Petrochemical and basic chemical industries led the rise, with nearly 20 stocks hitting the daily limit. The consumer sector declined, possibly due to profit-taking after a rapid rise. The technology sector continued to be weak, affected by the decline of US technology stocks [5]. - The market style is rotating, and the Spring rally is still expected. The market is currently in a state of rotation, and it is difficult to have a dominant sector in the short term. Sectors such as photovoltaics, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals may have new catalysts in the future, and consumer and real estate-related sectors may also present investment opportunities. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly and make low-cost layouts [7]. Bond Market - The treasury bond futures market rose across the board, with long-term contracts leading the gains. The 30-year main contract (TL2603) rose 0.42%, the 10-year main contract (T2603) rose 0.08%, the 5-year contract (TF2603) rose 0.03%, and the 2-year contract (TS2603) rose 0.02% [10]. - The central bank net withdrew 146 billion yuan, but the 14-day reverse repurchase continued to support cross - festival liquidity. Falling Shibor rates and risk aversion are driving the bond market up, and moderately loose monetary policies are expected to strengthen the demand for bond allocation in the medium to long term [10]. Commodity Market - The commodity index declined, and precious metals fluctuated significantly again. The Nanhua Commodity Index closed down 0.86%. Shanghai silver led the decline with a 14.92% drop, while LPG and alumina rose slightly [10]. - The increase in overseas margins led to significant fluctuations in precious metals. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group raised the initial margins for gold and silver futures. Precious metals may continue to fluctuate in the short term but are expected to rise in the long term [10]. - The price of alumina rose, but there is still long - term overcapacity pressure. The rise in alumina futures is due to a local spot shortage and pre - holiday inventory replenishment expectations, but it is constrained by long - term overcapacity [10]. Trading Hotspot Tracking Recent Popular Varieties | Variety | Core Logic | Follow - up Concerns | | --- | --- | --- | | AI Application | Acceleration of product applications represented by Alibaba Qianwen and Google GEMINI | 1. Transformation of application scenarios; 2. Product technology upgrade and breakthrough [12] | | Commercial Aerospace | Establishment of commercial aerospace companies and strong support for development | 1. Domestic reusable rocket launch situation; 2. Technological breakthroughs of overseas leaders such as SPACEX [12] | | Nuclear Fusion | Acceleration of industrialization in the mid - upstream | 1. Project progress; 2. Industry bidding situation [12] | | Quantum Technology | Technological breakthroughs and strategic emerging industries | 1. Domestic policy support; 2. Progress of key domestic and foreign projects [12] | | Brain - Computer Interface | 14th Five - Year Plan policy support and overseas technological progress | 1. Domestic technological progress; 2. Progress of foreign company projects [12] | | Robotics | Continuous product upgrading and accelerating industrialization | 1. Tesla's order release rhythm; 2. Technological progress of domestic enterprises [12] | | Big Consumption | Policy support for consumption upgrade | 1. Economic recovery; 2. Further stimulus policies [12] | | Brokerage | A - share trading volume remains above 2 trillion, and deposit transfer | 1. A - share market trading volume; 2. Possible changes in trading systems [12] | | Precious Metals | Continuous central bank purchases and expected Fed rate cuts | 1. Further Fed rate cut expectations; 2. Geopolitical risks [12] | | Non - Ferrous Metals | Weak US dollar index and supply constraints | 1. Changes in the US dollar index; 2. Global regional supply changes [12] | Recent Core Ideas - In the equity market, the current market is in a rotation state, and it is recommended to allocate technology and consumption sectors evenly and make low - cost layouts [14]. - In the bond market, the capital situation is loose, and the bond market is expected to continue to rise. In the medium to long term, the demand for bond allocation will be strengthened [14]. - In the commodity market, short - term fluctuations in precious metals are expected, but the long - term outlook is positive [14].

Group 1 - The recent controversy regarding the positioning of the zodiac symbols on the packaging of the Guizhou Moutai "Ma Moutai" has attracted significant attention, as the arrangement does not align with traditional Chinese directional customs [1] - Guizhou Moutai representatives clarified that the design follows ancient astronomical practices where the observer faces south, thus placing east on the left and west on the right, consistent with historical depictions [1] - The company has previously faced issues with misprints, such as the character for "昴" being incorrectly printed as "昂," which they have addressed by contacting suppliers for corrections and offering exchanges for consumers [4] Group 2 - Despite the rapid response and corrective measures taken by Guizhou Moutai, market opinions suggest that such "error edition" zodiac wines may actually possess collectible value [4] - Observations from visits to Moutai's self-operated stores indicate that the number of consumers seeking exchanges for the corrected packaging is low, suggesting a high tolerance for packaging details among consumers [4] - The allure of "error edition" wines may reflect a unique appeal to certain consumers, indicating a potential niche market for these products [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that instant retail is emerging as a new growth opportunity for the liquor industry, particularly in the context of structural adjustments in the baijiu sector, with significant market expansion expected in the coming years [1][14][20] - The instant retail market in China reached 780 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 20%, and is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025 and reach 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17% over the next six years [1][26][20] - The liquor instant retail market, although starting later, is experiencing rapid growth, with an estimated scale of 360 billion yuan in 2024, expected to rise to 1 trillion yuan by 2027, reflecting a near double-digit CAGR [3][20] Group 2 - The rise of instant retail is driven by three main factors: changing consumer habits favoring convenience and instant gratification, significant cost advantages through reduced distribution channels, and proactive changes from suppliers seeking new growth avenues [4][19][52] - Four operational models of liquor instant retail have emerged: vertical platforms (e.g., 1919, Jiu Xiaoyi), platform-type (e.g., Meituan Flash Purchase, JD Seconds), integrated warehouse-store models (e.g., Hema, Yonghui), and front warehouse models (e.g., Dingdong Maicai, Meituan Maicai) [4][47] - Major liquor companies, including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, are actively collaborating with platforms like Meituan and JD to offer rapid delivery services, indicating a strategic focus on instant retail [7][48] Group 3 - Instant retail is seen as a key channel for liquor companies to reach younger consumers, with the potential to create incremental sales through efficient fulfillment [19][56] - However, challenges exist, such as the inability of online channels to provide the social experience and authenticity associated with offline purchases, which may impact brand image and pricing structures [11][57] - The report suggests that liquor companies should carefully manage channel boundaries to avoid core products becoming mere traffic drivers and to enhance product differentiation and digital anti-counterfeiting measures [13][57] Group 4 - The overall view is that instant retail represents not only a channel transformation but also a crucial strategy for the liquor industry to adapt to cyclical adjustments and connect with a new generation of consumers [14][55] - The competition in the instant retail space will favor those who can balance efficiency with brand value, positioning themselves advantageously in the evolving market landscape [16][56]

2月6日，贵州茅台大宗交易成交2500股，成交额378.75万元，占当日总成交额的0.03%，成交价1515.01元，较市场收盘价1515.01元持平。 | 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( * ) 买入营业部 | | | | | 卖出营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-02-06 | 贵州茅台 | 600519 | 1515.01 | 378.75 | 0.25 | 中信证券股份有限 公司总部(非营业 | 招商证券股份有限 公司北京景辉街证 | | ...