Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) [5] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2024 revenue of 10.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10% to 1.597 billion, exceeding expectations [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5 billion, 5.63 billion, and 6.22 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 22x, 19x, and 17x for the respective years [5] - The report highlights the potential for continuous improvement in the dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 2.5% for 2023, making it attractive for investors [5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 79.31 yuan - One-year high/low: 112.79/67.56 yuan - Market capitalization: 55.89 billion yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 3.7 - Dividend yield: 0.63 [2] Financial Data - Net asset per share: 21.31 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 40.85% - Total shares: 1.364 billion, circulating A shares: 705 million [3] Sales Performance - Q1 2024 sales volume: 2.184 million tons, down 7.6% year-on-year - Main brand sales volume: 1.322 million tons, down 5.6% - Mid-to-high-end product sales volume: 960,000 tons, down 2.4% - The proportion of mid-to-high-end products in total sales increased by 2.3 percentage points to 43.96% [6] Cost and Profitability - Q1 2024 cost per ton: 2,768 yuan, down 1% year-on-year - Gross margin: 40.44%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year - Net profit margin: 15.7%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Projections - Total revenue projections for 2024-2026: 35.907 billion, 37.932 billion, and 39.622 billion respectively - Expected net profit growth rates: 16.9%, 12.8%, and 10.4% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][8]

2024年04月30日 公 司点评 公 买入 / 维持 司 青岛啤酒(600600) 研 究 目标价: 92.25 昨收盘:79.31 一季度成本端改善，利润增长超预期 事件：青岛啤酒发布2024年一季报，2024Q1实现营收101.50亿 ◼ 走势比较 元，同比-5.19%，归母净利润15.97亿元，同比+10.06%，扣非归母净 利润15.13亿元，同比+12.11%。 10% 销量因高基数略有承压，利润释放超预期。公司一季度收入端高 太 0% 基数下略有承压，利润端超预期。2024Q1销售收现达96.22亿元，同 平 (10%)4/5/32 51/7/32 52/9/32 6/21/32 61/2/42 82/4/42 比+5.17%，高于收入增速。量价拆分来看，2024Q1 公司销量/吨价分 洋 别为 218.4 万千升/4647 元/千升，同比-7.6%/+2.6%，其中主品牌青 (20%) 证 岛啤酒/中高端及以上产品分别实现销量 132.2/96 万千升， 同比- (30%) 5.6%/-2.4%，中高端及以上产品销量占比44.0%，同比+2.3pct，预计 券 (40%) 经典、白啤持续高增， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of Qingdao Beer [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 earnings that exceeded expectations, with a significant improvement in profit margins [1][3] - The sales volume of mid-to-high-end products continues to increase, contributing to a rise in average selling price [3] - Raw material costs have decreased, and product structure upgrades have led to a substantial increase in gross margin [3] - The company is expected to maintain a steady sales rhythm with a focus on core product development and cost control, leading to profit growth outpacing revenue growth [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 total revenue reached 10.15 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 5.2%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.6 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% [2][3] - The sales volume for Q1 2024 was 2.184 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-over-year, but the sales of mid-to-high-end products accounted for 44.0% of total sales, up 2.3 percentage points [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 40.4%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-over-year, driven by lower raw material costs and product upgrades [3] - The company expects a profit growth rate of 12% CAGR from 2024 to 2026, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 5.1 billion, 5.7 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) with a target price of 105 CNY, while the current price is 79.31 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance slightly exceeded expectations, driven by cost reductions and structural upgrades despite a high base effect from the previous year [2]. - The report highlights that the trend of upgrading product structure remains intact, with premium brands showing resilience and growth [2]. - The anticipated continuation of cost benefits is expected to enhance performance in subsequent quarters, particularly in Q3 due to lower base effects and potential catalysts from sports events [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved total revenue of 10.15 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.6 billion CNY, up 10.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company sold 2.184 million kiloliters of beer in Q1 2024, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year, attributed to last year's post-pandemic consumption surge [2]. - The average price per ton increased by 2.6% to 4,647.4 CNY per kiloliter, indicating a positive trend in pricing despite volume pressures [2]. - The gross profit margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 40.4%, supported by lower costs of barley and packaging materials [2]. - The report projects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 3.71, 4.28, and 4.91 CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 21, 19, and 16 times [3][2]. Market Position and Strategy - Qingdao Beer is positioned as a market leader with strong brand power and solid channel operations, allowing it to benefit from the ongoing premiumization trend in the beer industry [2]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain a robust pricing strategy and cost management, which are crucial for sustaining profitability amid competitive pressures [2].

证 券 2024 年 04 月 29 日 研 究 毛销差同比扩大，释放业绩弹性 报 告 —青岛啤酒（600600.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 2024 年 04 月 29 日，青岛啤酒发布 2023 年一季度业绩报 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 告。 分析师：廖望州 S1050523100001 liaowz@cfsc.com.cn 投资要点 基本数据 2024-04-29 ▌ 毛销差扩大，高端化升级推升盈利能力 当前股价（元） 79.31 总市值（亿元） 1082 公司 2024 年一季度营收 101.50 亿元（同比-5.19%），归母 净利润 15.97 亿元（同比+10.06%），扣非归母净利润为 总股本（百万股） 1364 15.13 亿元（同比+12.11%）。2024 年一季度毛利率为 流通股本（百万股） 705 40.44% （ 同 比 +2.12pcts ） ， 净 利 率 15.99% （ 同 比 52周价格范围（元） 68.35-112.15 +2.23pcts）；销售费用率为 12.83%（同比-1.02pcts），管 ...

Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 10.15 billion, a decrease of 5.19% year-on-year[5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.60 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.06%[5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 1.51 billion, up 12.11% year-on-year[5] - The basic earnings per share were RMB 1.175, an increase of 9.71% year-on-year[5] Cash Flow and Assets - The operating cash flow net amount increased by 57.29% to RMB 2.85 billion, driven by higher cash receipts from sales[7] - The total assets at the end of the reporting period were RMB 50.46 billion, an increase of 2.44% from the end of the previous year[4] - The equity attributable to shareholders increased to RMB 29.07 billion, reflecting a growth of 5.89% year-on-year[4] Sales and Market Performance - The cumulative product sales reached 2.184 million kiloliters, with the main brand Tsingtao beer accounting for 1.322 million kiloliters[5] Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to enhance brand optimization and product structure upgrades to achieve sustainable high-quality development[5] Government Support and Shareholding - The company received government subsidies amounting to RMB 94.92 million related to daily operations[6] - Qingdao Beer Group holds a total of 38,335,600 H shares and 405,132,055 A shares of the company[10] - The company acquired 20% equity of Qingdao Beer (Anshan) Co., Ltd. for RMB 18.065 million, increasing its ownership to 80%[12] - The report indicates that there were no changes in the top 10 shareholders due to margin trading or stock lending activities[11]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the first quarter of 2024 was RMB 10.15 billion, a decrease of 5.19% year-over-year[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 1.597 billion, an increase of 10.06% year-over-year[4] - Net profit for the first quarter of 2024 was 1.62 billion RMB, compared to 1.47 billion RMB in the same period last year[18] - Operating income for the first quarter of 2024 was 10.15 billion RMB, down from 10.71 billion RMB in the same period last year[17] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 1.175, an increase of 9.71% year-over-year[4] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter of 2024 was 1.175 RMB, up from 1.071 RMB in the same period last year[19] - Weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 5.65%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points[4] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 2.853 billion, an increase of 57.29% year-over-year[4] - Net cash flow from operating activities increased by 57.3% to 2,853,166,067 yuan in Q1 2024 from 1,813,957,743 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Total cash inflow from operating activities reached 10,020,892,260 yuan in Q1 2024, up 7.5% from 9,325,415,046 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Cash outflow for purchasing goods and services decreased by 5.6% to 3,776,378,876 yuan in Q1 2024 from 4,000,150,030 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Cash payments for investments surged to 7,200,000,000 yuan in Q1 2024, a 12.7% increase from 6,386,109,500 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Net cash flow from investment activities was -5,925,636,971 yuan in Q1 2024, compared to -4,190,214,856 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2024 stood at 6,183,503,443 yuan, a 40.8% decrease from 10,444,423,063 yuan at the end of Q1 2023[22] - Cash payments for employee compensation increased by 4.5% to 1,392,868,601 yuan in Q1 2024 from 1,333,509,933 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Tax payments decreased by 17.2% to 1,135,815,605 yuan in Q1 2024 from 1,370,839,687 yuan in Q1 2023[21] - Cash received from disposal of fixed assets and intangible assets dropped significantly to 7,273,212 yuan in Q1 2024 from 586,174,150 yuan in Q1 2023[21] Sales and Product Performance - Total product sales volume for the first quarter was 2.184 million kiloliters, with the main brand Tsingtao Beer contributing 1.322 million kiloliters[5] - Sales volume of mid-to-high-end products reached 960,000 kiloliters[5] - Sales of goods and services received cash of 9,622,455,676 yuan in Q1 2024, a 5.2% increase from 9,149,118,050 yuan in Q1 2023[20] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased by 2.44% to RMB 50.459 billion compared to the end of the previous year[5] - Total assets increased to 50.46 billion RMB, up from 49.26 billion RMB in the previous period[15] - Equity attributable to shareholders of the listed company increased by 5.89% to RMB 29.068 billion[5] - Total equity increased to 29.85 billion RMB from 28.25 billion RMB[16] - Total liabilities decreased to 20.61 billion RMB from 21.00 billion RMB[16] - Contract liabilities decreased to 5.94 billion RMB from 7.69 billion RMB[15] - The company's monetary funds increased to RMB 21.60 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 19.28 billion at the end of 2023[13] - Trading financial assets rose to RMB 3.04 billion in Q1 2024, up from RMB 1.92 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Inventory decreased to RMB 2.51 billion in Q1 2024 from RMB 3.54 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Total current assets reached RMB 30.11 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 29.61 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Fixed assets stood at RMB 10.95 billion as of March 31, 2024, slightly down from RMB 11.15 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Construction in progress increased to RMB 603.06 million in Q1 2024 from RMB 498.57 million at the end of 2023[14] - Intangible assets grew to RMB 2.62 billion as of March 31, 2024, up from RMB 2.49 billion at the end of 2023[14] - Deferred tax assets rose to RMB 2.14 billion in Q1 2024 from RMB 2.03 billion at the end of 2023[14] - The company's total non-current assets increased to RMB 19.05 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 18.13 billion at the end of 2023[14] Investments and Acquisitions - The company acquired a 20% stake in Qingdao Beer (Anshan) Co., Ltd. for RMB 18.065 million, increasing its ownership to 80%[12] Expenses and Costs - Research and development expenses increased to 17.83 million RMB from 10.70 million RMB[18] - Sales expenses decreased to 1.30 billion RMB from 1.48 billion RMB[18] - Financial expenses showed a net income of 141.21 million RMB, compared to 102.26 million RMB in the same period last year[18] Government Subsidies - Government subsidies received during the period amounted to RMB 94.924 million[6]

Brand Value and Market Position - Tsingtao Beer brand value reached RMB 240.689 billion in 2023, maintaining the top position in the Chinese beer industry[8] - The total brand value of Tsingtao Brewery's brands, including Tsingtao Beer, Laoshan Beer, and Hans Brewery, surpassed RMB 380 billion[9] - Tsingtao Brewery has launched several new products, including "Century Legend" and "Tsingtao IPA," which cater to market demands and lead trends in high-end beer consumption[11] - The company operates 57 wholly-owned and controlling breweries and 2 associated breweries across 20 provinces in China, solidifying its leading market position[6] - Tsingtao Brewery's products are sold in over 120 countries and regions worldwide, reflecting its extensive market reach[13] - The company has strengthened its marketing network and improved customer service capabilities to enhance its competitive edge in both established and emerging markets[13] - Tsingtao Beer has received multiple awards for quality in domestic and international competitions, reinforcing its reputation for high product quality[10] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 reached RMB 33,936,523 thousand, an increase from RMB 32,171,566 thousand in 2022, representing a growth of approximately 5.5%[17] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the Company was RMB 4,267,851 thousand, up from RMB 3,710,629 thousand in 2022, reflecting a year-over-year increase of about 15%[17] - Basic earnings per share for 2023 was RMB 3.139, compared to RMB 2.736 in 2022, marking an increase of about 14.7%[17] - Total profit for the year was RMB 5,746,407 thousand, which is an increase from RMB 5,006,141 thousand in 2022, representing a growth of approximately 14.8%[17] - The weighted average return on net assets for 2023 was 16.12%, up from 15.30% in 2022, indicating improved efficiency in asset utilization[17] - The Company’s total equity attributable to shareholders increased to RMB 27,449,478 thousand from RMB 25,494,822 thousand in 2022, showing a growth of about 7.7%[17] - The Company recognized government grants in profits amounting to RMB 391,134 thousand, contributing positively to the overall profit figures[15] Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The company continued to enhance operational efficiency and cost management, contributing to sustainable growth[26] - The revenue per kiloliter increased by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating improved pricing power in the market[28] - The company is focusing on digital transformation and innovation management to drive high-quality development[24] - The company is accelerating the construction of large-scale, intelligent, and green plants, including a high-end beer production base with an annual capacity of 1 million kiloliters and a malt raw material base with an annual capacity of 250,000 tons[31] Shareholder and Equity Information - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB2.00 per share for the year ended December 31, 2023, subject to approval at the annual general meeting[39][41] - The company aims to maintain a stable profit distribution policy, ensuring that cash dividends are not less than 30% of the distributable profits for the year[39] - The total number of ordinary shares is 1,364,232,790, with a decrease of 36,002 shares[54] - The substantial shareholder, Qingdao State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, held 405,132,055 A-shares, which is 29.70% of the total issued capital[62] Employee Management and Development - As of the end of the reporting period, the company had a total of 30,687 full-time employees, with 13,716 in production, 9,714 in sales, and 2,368 in technical roles[82][83] - The company implemented a differentiated assessment and distribution mechanism for total wages linked to performance, aiming to enhance employee income levels in line with operational results[84] - The company has adopted an annual performance appraisal system for executive directors and senior management, focusing on position responsibilities and annual operating results[75] - The proportion of highly skilled talents within the Company continued to increase, with over 70 skill awards received at national, provincial, and municipal levels[88] Governance and Compliance - The Company has complied with the disclosure requirements under Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules regarding continuing connected transactions[130] - The Company’s internal control procedures regarding transactions have been deemed adequate and effective by the Board[130] - The internal control and risk management system aims to ensure legal compliance, asset security, and the authenticity of financial reporting[194] - The company has established a robust management system for information insiders, with no regulatory issues reported during the Reporting Period[153] Environmental Sustainability - The company is committed to environmental sustainability, focusing on low-carbon management and circular economy practices to achieve a balance between production efficiency and ecological civilization[40] - The Company has improved its environmental management system and aims for sustainable development through low-carbon management and circular economy practices[44] - The environmental performance has been continuously improved, ensuring stable and compliant pollutant discharge during production[46] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its global market presence, particularly in traditional advantageous markets, as part of its strategy along the "Belt and Road" initiative[29] - The Company implements a profit distribution policy, ensuring cash dividends are no less than 30% of distributable profits for the current year[42] - The Company is leveraging its position as the world's first industrial internet "Lighthouse Brewery" to drive innovation and high-quality development in the beer industry[31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer with a target price of HK$101.00, slightly down from the previous HK$101.58 [1][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that despite a significant increase in sales and distribution expenses in Q4 2023, the profit margin expansion trend is expected to continue into 2024, driven by product upgrades and a decrease in the sales and distribution expense ratio [1][2][4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 40.87 billion, which is 7.7% lower than previous forecasts due to increased brand investment following negative news in November 2023 [1][3]. - The report highlights that the average selling price of beer increased by 6.8% year-on-year in 2023, while sales volume decreased by 0.8%, indicating a shift towards higher-end products [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 31.55 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 33.40 billion, maintaining the same growth rate [2][7]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 34.0%, expected to rise to 36.1% in 2024, reflecting ongoing improvements in product mix and cost management [2][10]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 3.64, down from RMB 3.82 previously forecasted, indicating a 5% decrease [1][3]. Valuation - The report uses a 15x adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple for valuation, which is higher than the current multiples of 9.0x for Chinese beer companies and 12.8x for liquor companies, reflecting the company's positive revenue structure changes and profit margin improvements [4][5]. - The target price of HK$101.00 is based on updated earnings forecasts and a revised exchange rate assumption of 1.10 for RMB/HKD [4][5]. Market Comparison - Qingdao Beer is compared with peers such as China Resources Beer and Budweiser APAC, showing a competitive position in terms of valuation metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA [5]. - The report notes that Qingdao Beer trades at a P/E of 12.6x for 2024E, which is attractive given the expected growth in profit margins and revenue [5][10].

公 价格提升驱动增长 盈利能力获得提升 司 研 ——青岛啤酒（600600.SH）年报点评 食品饮料/非白酒 究 事件： 公司发布 2023年度年报，全年实现营收/归母净利润 339.37/42.68亿元，同 评级 买入 比增长5.49%/15.02%。其中Q4实现营收29.58亿元、同比下滑3.37%，归 2024年04月08日 母净利润-6.4 亿元，较同期（22Q4 归母净利润-5.56 亿元）亏损加大。业绩 符合市场预期。 徐广福 分析师 投资摘要： SAC执业证书编号：S1660524030001 主品牌组合发展提升产品结构，千升酒价提升趋势延续，23年4季度销量短 年 期承压。23年全年销量801万千升，同比下滑0.82%，千升酒价4170元/千 报 升、同比增长 6.18%，全年千升酒价提高为业绩增长驱动力。全年青岛品牌/ 其他品牌销量分别为 456 万/345 万千升，同比增长 2.67%/下滑 5.08%。青 交易数据 时间 2024.4.8 点 岛品牌实现营收 232.63亿元，其他品牌实现营收 101.43亿元，青岛品牌/其 总市值/流通市值（亿元） 1,063.39/549.31 他品 ...