公司报告 | 年报点评报告 舍得酒业（600702） 证券研究报告 库存去化进行中，主动降速放眼长期 【业绩总结】2024 年公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 53.57/3.46 亿元（同 比-24.41%/-80.46%）；2024Q4 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 8.97/-3.23 亿元（同比-51%/-168%）。 中高档商务需求承压，24 年普通酒吨价上行。 ①24Q4 公司酒类收入 7.54 亿元（同比-56.12%），其中中高档酒/普通酒收 入分别为 5.97/1.56 亿元（同比 -60.31%/-26.34% ）， 占 比 分 别 为 79.27%/20.73%（普通酒比重同比+8.38pcts），主要系公司主动去库存，品 味舍得等高端酒下滑明显。 ②2024 年酒类收入-27%，其中中高档酒/普通酒收入分别-27.66%/-23.44%。 从量来看，酒类销量-28.7%，中高档酒/普通酒分别-12.09%/-41.69%；从价 来看，酒类吨价+2.38%，中高档酒/普通酒分别-17.62%/+31.33%。 聚焦基地市场，稳固营收基本盘。 盈利预测：我们认为，24 年公司历经深度去库存 ...

事件：公司发布2025年限制性股票激励计划（草案），拟向公司及子公司董事、高级管理人员、中层管 理人员及核心骨干员工共168 人，授予限制性股票不超过203.66 万股，涉及的标的股票约占激励计划公 告日公司股本的0.61%，授予价格为28.78 元/股。 盈利预测与投资评级：我们预计，公司2025-2027 年摊薄每股收益分别为2.75 元、3.54 元、4.73 元，维 持对公司的"买入"评级。 点评： 风险因素：宏观经济不确定性风险；次高端竞争加剧风险；商务需求恢复不及预期风险。 收入端深蹲起跳有压力。根据业绩考核要求，收入和利润目标只要达成其一即可解锁。我们认为，2025 年白酒产业端的调整仍将继续，酒企或普遍降速以匹配需求端变化，去化库存、改善渠道盈利水平仍是 主旋律。此外，公司2024 年收入下滑24%，行业竞争压力凸显，次高端受宏观环境影响，从水井坊到 酒鬼再到舍得，相继进入调整，短时间内公司想实现深蹲起跳的难度较大。我们认为，在此阶段首先要 保住市场份额，深耕核心市场，反思过往发展中出现的问题，解决渠道痛点问题，其次才是在良性增长 下提速，扩大成长优势。因此，我们对公司2025 年的收入目标持 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company has announced a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, granting up to 2.0366 million shares, representing approximately 0.61% of the company's total equity as of the announcement date, with a grant price of 28.78 yuan per share [1] - The performance assessment targets for the incentive plan include a revenue growth of no less than 20% or a net profit growth of no less than 164% for 2025 compared to 2024 [2] - The company is expected to face challenges in achieving revenue growth due to ongoing adjustments in the liquor industry, with a projected revenue decline of 24% in 2024 [3][4] - Despite the challenges, there is an expectation for profit recovery, with a projected net profit of 916 million yuan for 2025, which would result in a net profit margin of 17.0% [6] Financial Performance Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 was 7.087 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.0%. However, a significant decline of 24.4% is expected in 2024 [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1.769 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%. A drastic decline of 80.5% is anticipated for 2024, followed by a recovery of 164.8% in 2025 [5][6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.75 yuan, with subsequent increases to 3.54 yuan in 2026 and 4.73 yuan in 2027 [6]

信达证券（601059）股份有限公司赵丹晨近期对舍得酒业（600702）进行研究并发布了研究报告《逆势激 励，注入信心》，给予舍得酒业买入评级。 舍得酒业 事件：公司发布2025年限制性股票激励计划(草案)，拟向公司及子公司董事、高级管理人员、中层管理人 员及核心骨干员工共168人，授予限制性股票不超过203.66万股，涉及的标的股票约占激励计划公告日公 司股本的0.61%，授予价格为28.78元/股。 点评： 解除限售期业绩考核目标解除限售比例 第一个解除限售期2025年较2024年，营收增长不低于20%或归40% 中层管理人员及核心骨干员144.9371.16%0.44% 工(共155人) 收入端深蹲起跳有压力。根据业绩考核要求，收入和利润目标只要达成其一即可解锁。我们认为，2025年 白酒产业端的调整仍将继续，酒企或普遍降速以匹配需求端变化，去化库存、改善渠道盈利水平仍是主旋 律。此外，公司2024年收入下滑24%，行业竞争压力凸显，次高端受宏观环境影响，从水井坊（600779） 到酒鬼再到舍得，相继进入调整，短时间内公司想实现深蹲起跳的难度较大。我们认为，在此阶段首先要 保住市场份额，深耕核心市场，反 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 Spring Sugar and Wine Fair was held from March 20 to March 27 in Chengdu, with a noticeable decline in attendance and an increase in promotional activities. The fair's role in brand recruitment has weakened due to the downward trend in the liquor industry, leading to slower sales for small brands and new products [2] - Despite the challenges, the Spring Sugar Fair remains a significant event in the industry, with major brands seeking to adapt through various cultural activities and product launches [2] - The industry is currently stable, with liquor merchants' attitudes improving after a low point last year. The report anticipates 2025 will be an adjustment year for the liquor industry, with the speed of channel clearing determining the timing of the industry's bottoming out [2] - Major liquor brands are focusing on practical changes and channel transformations to address declining profit margins and high inventory levels. New sales channels such as online live streaming and e-commerce are impacting traditional sales methods [2] - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the liquor industry's adjustments, emphasizing the importance of stability for development. The performance of listed companies is expected to show a general slowdown in the first half of the year, with key observations set for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [2] Summary by Sections - **Event Overview**: The Spring Sugar and Wine Fair experienced lower attendance and increased promotional activities, indicating a shift in the industry's dynamics [2] - **Market Stability**: The liquor industry is stable, with merchants' attitudes improving, but 2025 is expected to be a year of adjustment [2] - **Brand Strategies**: Major brands are adapting through product launches and cultural events, while also addressing channel challenges and inventory issues [2] - **Future Outlook**: The report suggests a cautious optimism for the liquor industry, with the need for stability and effective channel management being crucial for future performance [2]

[舍得酒业（ Table_Other600702.SH Report] ）：保 持自信坚韧，坚守长期主义 2024.04.25 [Table_Title] 逆势激励，注入信心 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 28 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary]2025 年限制性股票激励计划（草案），拟向公司及子公司董事、 高级管理人员、中层管理人员及核心骨干员工共 168 人，授予限制性股票不超 过 203.66 万股，涉及的标的股票约占激励计划公告日公司股本的 0.61%，授予 价格为 28.78 元/股。 点评： | 解除限售期 | | 业绩考核目标 | | | | 解除限售比例 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一个解除限售期 | | 2025 年较 2024 年，营收增长不低于 20%或归 | | | | 40% | | | | | 母净利润增长不低于 164% | | | | | | | 第二个解除限售期 | | 2026 年较 2024 年，营收增长不低于 36%或归 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [3][32]. Core Insights - The company has announced a new stock incentive plan for 2025, proposing to grant up to 2.0366 million restricted shares, accounting for 0.61% of the total share capital. The grant price is set at 28.78 CNY per share, which is approximately 50.5% of the market price [2][10]. - The incentive plan targets 168 individuals, including senior management and key personnel, aiming to enhance motivation and retain talent during the industry adjustment period [2][6]. - The performance targets for the incentive plan are ambitious, with revenue growth rates set at no less than 20%, 36%, and 55% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profit growth rates set at no less than 164%, 231%, and 309% for the same years [2][17]. Financial Projections - The company's total revenue is projected to be 5,357 million CNY in 2024, with a slight increase to 5,412 million CNY in 2025, followed by 5,771 million CNY in 2026 and 6,537 million CNY in 2027. The year-on-year growth rates are expected to be -24.3%, 1.0%, 6.6%, and 13.3% respectively [2][21]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 345 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 477 million CNY in 2025, 546 million CNY in 2026, and 663 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -80.5%, 37.9%, 14.6%, and 21.3% respectively [2][21]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.04 CNY in 2024 to 1.43 CNY in 2025, 1.64 CNY in 2026, and 1.99 CNY in 2027 [2][21]. Market Performance - The company's stock price target is set at 78 CNY, while the current price is 56.97 CNY, indicating a potential upside [3][6]. - The company has experienced a significant decline of 47% over the past year, compared to a 24% decline in the benchmark index [5][6]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focused on optimizing expenses to achieve high elastic growth in profits, with a strategic emphasis on maintaining price stability and strengthening market foundations [2][6]. - The report highlights the importance of external demand conditions for achieving revenue targets, while the profit side is expected to show high elasticity due to a low base [2][6].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 舍得酒业（600702）重大事项点评 推荐（维持） 再启激励，规划积极 事项： ❖ 公司公布《2025 年限制性股票激励计划（草案）》，拟向激励对象授予限制性 股票不超过 203.66 万股，占总股本的 0.61%。本次激励对象包含公司中高管 及骨干共 168 人，授予价格为 28.78 元/股，分三年解禁，比例分别为 40%、 30%、30%。考核目标以 2024 年为基数，2025-2027 年营收增长率不低于 20%、 36%和 55%；2025-2027 年归母净利润增长率不低于 164%、231%和 309%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 5,357 | 5,412 | 5,771 | 6,537 | | 同比增速(%) | -24.3% | 1.0% | 6.6% | 13.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 345 | 477 | 546 | 663 | | ...

2）2026 年较2024 年营收增长不低于36%（72.86 亿元）或归母净利润增长不低于231%（11.45 亿 元），解除限售比例为30%；3）2027 年较2024 年营收增长不低于55%（83.03 亿元）或归母净利润增 长不低于309%（14.14 亿元），解除限售比例为30%。 公司坚持长期主义，以老酒战略为基石，推动多品牌、年轻化和国际化战略。品牌端坚持"舍得+沱 牌"双轮驱动，强化品牌矩阵的协同效应，将"舍得"打造为次高端价位龙头品牌和老酒品类第一品牌， 聚焦打造藏品舍得 10 年、品味舍得、舍之道等战略单品；将"沱牌"打造为最具性价比的大众名酒，聚 焦打造沱牌曲酒、沱牌特曲及沱牌特级 T68 等战略单品，加快恢复大众白酒市场的影响力。；聚焦打 造重点城市，通过聚焦资源形成合力，加强华东、华南及重庆等新区域布局；积极拓展互联网、要客、 私域、KA 等新渠道布局；充分发挥企业的机制优势，通过有效培训和激励团队、加强与经销商的战略 合作、提升全渠道运营能力。 盈利预测：我们认为，当前白酒行业整体处于调整阶段，行业竞争进一步加剧，消费者信心以及消费需 求仍待修复。公司在此时点试试股权激励计划，1） ...

三年前，作为川酒"六朵金花"之一的舍得酒业（600702）(600702.SH)提出了"三年百亿营收"的发展目 标，即到2024年公司营收达到百亿规模。然而舍得酒业2024年实际交出的业绩答卷不仅未能兑现百亿目 标，更出现了自2016年以来的首次营收与净利润双下滑局面。 证券之星了解到，白酒市场深度调整周期下，行业次高端产品需求疲软，价格下行压力显著，为此公司 主动采取"控量挺价"策略，核心产品价格得到稳定的同时，却也致使营收腰斩，其中2024年Q4公司大 幅亏损3.23亿元。此外，虽然舍得酒业坚持"老酒战略"，但相关产能建设和品牌培育需持续投入，短期 内难以转化为可观的利润。 合同负债大幅缩水 白酒行业普遍采用"先款后货"的销售模式，预收账款占比较高，经营活动现金流通常为正。例如2023年 五粮液（000858）经营活动现金流量净额达到417.42亿元。舍得酒业年报显示，2024年公司合同负债为 1.65亿元，同比大幅下降40.40%，公司解释称，是上年预收货款今年发货开票结算所致。将时间线拉 长，2021年，舍得酒业的合同负债曾达到6.58亿元，至2023年则收缩至2.77亿元，降幅高达57.90%。 舍 ...