白酒渠道跟踪 20251205 摘要 2025 年白酒市场普遍面临动销下滑和库存积压问题，茅台、五粮液等 高端品牌虽回款尚可，但价格出现松动，库存压力增加，线上平台甚至 出现低于成本价销售现象。 五粮液预计 2026 年销量增长 10%，主要因新任董事长上任及对 2025 年减量补偿，但具体打款价格和补贴政策尚未确定，经销商面临毛利甚 至负毛利挑战。 汾酒在山东市场表现相对稳定，部分区域略有增长，但 20 年汾酒价格 降至历史低点，经销商利润主要依赖返利，2026 年计划增长 10%。 江苏市场高端白酒需求下降，宴会用酒减少，价格下调，库存增加，五 粮液专卖店打款积极性不高，整体销量同比下降 25%-30%。 古井贡酒 2025 年任务完成率预计 80%左右，库存较高，古 20 等产品 价格有所松动，公司加大了渠道下沉力度，但高端产品销量不理想。 山东地区白酒动销整体下滑，水井坊和舍得下滑明显，汾酒持平或略增， 经销商库存偏大，各品牌面临一定压力。 河南地区 2025 年白酒销售额同比减少约 20%，部分酒厂下发减少指令， 导致销量减少，但最终完成了任务，没有再增加销量。 Q&A 最近白酒市场的动销情况如何？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Moutai's wholesale prices has temporarily suppressed the performance of the sector, but potential policy-driven consumption catalysts in December are noteworthy. Current valuations in the food and beverage sector are at relatively low historical levels, indicating clear bottom logic for quality assets like liquor. The focus on three main lines in the consumer goods sector presents structural opportunities, with recommendations to continue investing in liquor and consumer goods with specific logic. It is expected that the consumer goods sector will outperform liquor, with liquor demand stabilizing as the market awaits the Spring Festival [1][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - This week, the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3902.81 points, a weekly change of 0.37%. The food and beverage sector experienced a weekly decline of 1.90%, underperforming the market by 2.27 percentage points, ranking 30th among Shenwan's primary industry classifications [2][15]. - Among the various sub-sectors of food and beverage, the performance from highest to lowest was as follows: pre-processed foods (+1.51%), beer (+1.20%), soft drinks (+0.43%), meat products (-0.11%), health products (-0.17%), seasoning and fermented products (-0.32%), snacks (-0.73%), dairy products (-1.74%), liquor (-2.59%), and other alcoholic beverages (-3.06%) [2][15]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Clear signals of industry bottoming are evident, presenting opportunities for undervalued investments. Liquor demand is in a bottoming phase, with sales still under pressure but gradually recovering compared to Q3. Liquor companies are expected to continue the trend of performance clearing, actively alleviating market burdens. The liquor sector's valuation is at historical lows, providing strong bottom configuration value, while potential consumption policy catalysts are also noteworthy [3][16]. - For consumer goods, focus on three structural opportunities: 1) Improvement in the restaurant supply chain and supermarket customization, with a reduction in price wars and lighter channel inventory burdens as the traditional peak season approaches. 2) The health and functional product segment is experiencing high growth, with leading oat brands benefiting from the "oat+" health trend. 3) The price cycle is nearing a turning point, with expected improvements in upstream profitability as raw milk prices stabilize [3][16]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the liquor sector, the recent global distributor conference for Fenjiu emphasized the certainty of future growth, with expectations for the domestic economy to stabilize and recover, supported by policy and consumption revival. This is anticipated to lead to a dual leap in cultural value and market scale for liquor as a cyclical industry [4][17]. - The average milk price in major production areas was 3.02 yuan/kg in the last week of November, down 0.1 yuan/kg, indicating a continued bottoming of raw milk prices. The first batch of deep-processed products from Mengniu has passed testing and is expected to contribute to performance improvements in the dairy sector as production capacity increases [20].

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 7 日 湘财证券研究所 证书编号：S0500525110001 Tel：17621838100 Email：zc08241@xcsc.com 行业研究 食品饮料行业周报 年底关注企业战略定调，把握底部机遇 相关研究： | 1.《10月CPI回暖，消费板块预期 | | | --- | --- | | 修复》 | 2025.11.16 | | 2.《板块情绪回暖，低估值极具 | | | 性价比》 | 2025.11.23 | | 3.《茅台理性定调，板块投资信 | | | 心回暖》 | 2025.11.30 | 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 1.8 | -7.5 | -23.2 | | 绝对收益 | -0.5 | -4.7 | -7.8 | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：李育文 证书编号：S0500523060001 Tel：021-50295328 Email：liyw3@xcsc.com 分析师：张弛 地址：上海市浦东新区 ...

2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/12/5 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 182.05 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 228.93/168.30 | | 总市值(亿元) | 2,220.94 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 2,220.94 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.20 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 12.20 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 25.89 | 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 山西汾酒（600809.SH） 节奏张弛有度，竞争优势持续 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 山西汾酒 沪深300 相关研究报告 《整体稳健，结构下移—公司信息更 新报告》-2025.9.3 《业绩符合预期，控制节奏稳健发展 —公司信息更新报告》-2025.5.2 张宇光（分析师） 逄晓娟（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn pangxiaojuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521060002 市场发展相对健康，业绩表现好于行 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - Short-term price fluctuations do not alter long-term value; new products from Ximai are building a second growth curve [5] - The food and beverage index declined by 1.9%, ranking 26th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 3.2 percentage points [13][15] - Moutai's recent price decline is attributed to increased shipments in Q4 and promotional activities on e-commerce platforms, indicating a temporary supply-demand adjustment rather than a fundamental change in brand strength [5][13] - The white liquor sector is currently at a dual bottom in valuation and expectations, with opportunities for strategic positioning as industry reforms deepen [5][13] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the market, with a 1.9% decline, while sub-sectors like processed foods (+1.5%), beer (+1.2%), and soft drinks (+0.4%) showed relative strength [15][17] - Notable individual stock performances included Anji Food, Hai Xin Food, and Xi Wang Food showing gains, while Yantang Dairy, Ximai Food, and Richen Co. experienced declines [15][17] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with whole milk powder auction prices down 15.6% year-on-year, and fresh milk prices down 3.2% year-on-year [18][19] - Pork prices have also seen significant declines, with a year-on-year drop of 24.1% [22][23] Company Focus - Ximai Food's new health-oriented powder products have performed well in initial sales, with plans for nationwide expansion starting in 2026 [6][14] - The company is also launching weight control products aimed at improving gut health and stabilizing blood sugar levels, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the health sector [6][14] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Bai Run Co. [7] - Guizhou Moutai is expected to deepen its reform process and focus on sustainable development despite short-term demand pressures [7] - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned for medium-term growth with a focus on product structure upgrades and national expansion [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected stocks and sectors within the industry [4]. Core Insights - The white liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, with Shanxi Fenjiu focusing on national expansion, youth engagement, and internationalization strategies for 2026. The company is optimizing inventory and enhancing market capacity, which is expected to support growth [2]. - In the beverage sector, companies like Nongfu Spring are planning to strengthen their water and tea product lines while introducing new products. The beer segment is diversifying with new flavors to cater to changing consumer preferences [3]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in consumer staples, with companies like Three Squirrels expanding into a full-category strategy and Mengniu Dairy leading in deep processing innovations [7]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2026 marketing strategy focuses on nationalization, youth engagement, and precise consumer service. The company is targeting key markets and optimizing inventory to enhance growth potential [2]. - The white liquor industry is characterized by bottoming out in sales, clearing financial reports, and low expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for quality asset allocation [2]. Beer and Beverage - The beer sector is witnessing the launch of new products like Jin Xing Beer’s winter flavor, reflecting a shift in consumption patterns towards home and outdoor settings [3]. - Nongfu Spring's strategy for 2026 includes strengthening its core water products and expanding its tea offerings, indicating a focus on product diversification and market penetration [3]. Consumer Staples - Three Squirrels is advancing its full-category strategy with the opening of flagship stores, emphasizing community engagement and a wide range of products [7]. - Mengniu Dairy is enhancing its product line with deep processing innovations, which are expected to drive demand and improve the utilization of raw milk [7]. - The frozen food sector is recovering, with companies like Anjuke benefiting from new product launches and channel optimizations, indicating a positive market response [7].

行 业 及 产 业 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 高端酒批价回落 关注需求承接 食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 06 日 相关研究 《茅台股东会传递务实信号 月度金股推荐 泸州老窖 ——食品饮料行业周报 20251124-20251128》 2025/11/30 《市场大幅调整 板块相对跑赢 ——食品 饮料行业周报 20251117-20251121》 2025/11/22 《黎明前夕，曙光将至——2026 年食品 ⚫ 风险提示：食品安全问题，经济下行影响白酒及大众品需求。 证 券 研 究 报 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(res ...

| 中国知名白酒大单品 | 市场真实成交终端价 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品名/规格 | 今日价格(元) | 较昨日(元) | | 贵州茅台酒(飞天) 53度/500ml | 1812/瓶 | -470 | | 贵州茅台酒(精品) 53度/500ml | 2326/瓶 | 1元 | | 五粮液普五八代 52度/500ml | 846/瓶 | 9元 | | 青花汾20 53度/500ml | 388/瓶 | 3元- | | 国窖1573 | 880/瓶 | | | | | 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价周六强势反弹，结束 连续回调态势。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为9177元，较昨日上涨32元，市场重回 上行通道。"酒价内参"的每日酒价数据源自全国各个大区均有合理分布的约200个采集点，包括但不限于 酒企的指定经销商、社会经销商、主流电商平台和零售网点等，原始取样数据为过去24个小时中各点位经 手的真实成交终端零售价，确保为社会各界提供一份关于知名白酒市场价格的客观、真实、科学、全程可 追溯的数据。今日市场呈普涨格局，多数 ...

01、中流击水：以复兴纲领引领战略转型 众所周知，当前白酒行业正经 在白酒行业深度调整的"中流"之处，当白酒行业在"十四五"的深度调整中探寻方向，汾酒却以一份沉甸 甸的"十五五"战略蓝图，展现了清晰的战略定力与破局智慧。这场大会不仅是对行业现状的深刻洞察， 更是对未来发展路径的系统规划。 2025年末的太原，汾酒以一场主题为"中流击水凯歌还，并肩携手越关山"的全球经销商大会，为行业注 入一股清醒而坚定的力量。 ...

中国经济网北京12月5日讯 据同花顺iFinD数据显示，2025年前11月里，在共计970只（各份额分开 计算）普通股票型基金中，仅有29只基金收跌，而这其中，就有知名基金经理萧楠管理的易方达消费行 业股票。数据显示，该基金在今年前11月收益率下跌0.14%。 作为消费主题基金，其重仓股自然以消费板块为主，然而纵观年内前三个季度的季报看，前十大重 仓股中，白酒股无疑都占据较大仓位。今年三季报显示，其前十大重仓股为贵州茅台、山西汾酒、五粮 液、福耀玻璃、美的集团、古井贡酒、长城汽车、东鹏饮料、泸州老窖、赛轮轮胎，白酒股占据一半。 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com | 代码 名称 | 前11月复权单位 累计单位 规模 亿 | | --- | --- | | | 净值增长率% 净值元 元 | | 110022.0F 易方达消费行业股票 | -0.14 3.5660 169.4 ...