证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：2024-016 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 2023 年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利 4.37 元 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2024/7/4 | － | 2024/7/5 | 2024/7/5 | 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司 2024 年 5 月 17 日的 2023 年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 3. 分配方案： 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本1,219,964,222股为基数，每股派发现金红利4.37 元（含税） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu with a target price of 325.50 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [2][11]. Core Views - The growth tools for Shanxi Fenjiu are deemed sufficient, and the company's growth logic remains intact. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are 11.04 CNY, 13.70 CNY, and 16.72 CNY respectively [7][11]. - The second quarter of 2024 is identified as a turning point for the industry, with Shanxi Fenjiu maintaining a good balance between growth and stability. The company is expected to continue enhancing its cost management and channel strategies [12][13]. - The report highlights a transformation in the growth logic of Shanxi Fenjiu, shifting from external to internal growth drivers, which enhances its counter-cyclical capabilities [13][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report reiterates the "Accumulate" rating and target price of 325.50 CNY, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential [11]. 2. Industry Turning Point and Growth Tools - The second quarter of 2024 is seen as a critical period for the industry, with Shanxi Fenjiu's sales performance aligning with expectations. The company is focusing on maintaining a healthy inventory and enhancing its product structure [12]. 3. Transformation of Growth Logic - The report notes that Shanxi Fenjiu has undergone a fundamental change in its operational and marketing strategies, transitioning to a market-oriented approach that strengthens its competitive and incentive structures [13]. 4. Market Share Logic - The report suggests that Shanxi Fenjiu is well-positioned to reshape the industry landscape, leveraging its brand and product advantages to enhance market share and influence in the high-end segment [14].

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call appears to be related to a company or industry involved in a deep report analysis, possibly in the financial or investment sector, but specific details are not provided in the content [1] Core Points and Arguments - The call welcomes participants and indicates a focus on a deep report analysis, suggesting a detailed examination of growth dynamics and potential conflicts within the industry [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The mention of "elite status" implies that the company or industry is currently performing well or is in a strong position, although specific metrics or data are not provided [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [2][3][94]. Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu has significant growth potential as it transitions from a revenue scale of 100 billion to 300 billion, with a faster pace than other liquor companies. The company is expected to maintain its growth momentum without significant deceleration in the next two years [1][10][12]. - The company is undergoing comprehensive reforms to enhance its organizational structure and channel management, which are crucial for product upgrades and sustainable growth [2][40][98]. - The growth strategy focuses on building a solid foundation in the surrounding Shanxi region while expanding into multiple price segments, with a particular emphasis on the Qinghua 20 and Laobai Fen products [2][61][64]. Summary by Sections Horizontal Comparison - Historical analysis shows that liquor companies typically face challenges after surpassing 300 billion in revenue. However, Shanxi Fenjiu's rapid growth and proactive reforms position it favorably compared to peers like Moutai and Wuliangye [1][12][18]. - The company has successfully crossed the 300 billion revenue threshold faster than competitors, indicating a robust growth foundation [1][13][19]. Organizational Reforms - Shanxi Fenjiu is implementing a comprehensive reform strategy, including the establishment of new departments to enhance high-end product cultivation and channel reforms [2][40][41]. - The "Fen Enjoy Benefits" program is a key tool for channel reform, focusing on tiered management of distributors and terminals to improve efficiency [2][46][48]. Growth Logic - The company is building a strong market presence in the surrounding Shanxi region and expanding its product offerings across various price segments. The Qinghua 20 product is positioned for significant growth, supported by its competitive pricing and brand strength [2][61][64]. - The report anticipates that the Qinghua 20 will drive revenue growth, enabling the company to reach the 500 billion revenue mark [1][11][64]. Valuation Analysis and Investment Recommendations - The report projects revenue growth for Shanxi Fenjiu at 20.5% for 2024, with expected revenues of 384.7 billion, 454.1 billion, and 522.5 billion for 2024-2026 [2][80][81]. - The target price for the stock is set between 248.40 and 291.60 yuan, reflecting the company's growth potential and ongoing reforms [2][94][87].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [10]. Core Views - The company is focusing on product upgrades to strengthen its mid-tier offerings and is leveraging digitalization to drive channel transformation [1]. - The sales conference highlighted a price increase of 5 yuan per box for the entire series of Lao Bai Fen and the comprehensive upgrade of Qinghua 20, which includes a new five-in-one system [1][2]. - The company aims to enhance its market presence outside of Shanxi, with a reported revenue of 19.659 billion yuan from outside the province in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.84% [2]. - The Qinghua 20 upgrade features a new design and improved channel and pricing control through the integration of RFID technology [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 31.928 billion yuan in 2023 to 55.240 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.6% [1]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 10.438 billion yuan in 2023 to 19.469 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of about 21.5% [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 37.0% in 2023 to 31.5% in 2026 [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to rise from 8.56 yuan in 2023 to 15.96 yuan in 2026 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [3] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to strengthen its mid-tier product offerings, particularly with the recent upgrades and price increases of its flagship products, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth [2][3] - The company is positioned to outperform its peers in terms of growth speed and quality, with a focus on enhancing its overall competitive capabilities [2] Summary by Sections Product Strategy - The recent dealer conference revealed the launch of upgraded products, including Qinghua 20 and upgraded Lao Bai Fenjiu, with a price increase of 5 yuan per bottle for the Lao Bai Fenjiu series [2] - The strategic shift since 2022 focuses on enhancing the mid-tier segment while maintaining strong performance in the premium segment [2] Sales Performance - The company expects revenue growth for the Lao Bai Fenjiu series to exceed the overall company growth rate, particularly in the second quarter following the price adjustments [2] - Qinghua 20 continues to show strong sales momentum, with expectations for it to maintain a growth rate above the company average [2] Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 130.8 billion, 155.2 billion, and 182.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 10.7, 12.7, and 15.0 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 22, 19, and 16 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Market Position - The company has a solid foundation in its home market and is expanding its presence in surrounding provinces, with strong growth potential in southern markets like Jiangsu and Anhui [2] - The overall market share is expected to increase due to the company's brand and product advantages, alongside improved management and execution capabilities [2]

证券研究报告 | 2024年06月07日 山西汾酒（600809.SH） 优于大市 老白汾焕新上市，巩固市场发展基础  公司研究·公司快评  食品饮料·白酒Ⅱ  投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 张向伟 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523090001 证券分析师： 李文华 021-60375461 liwenhua2@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523070002 联系人： 张未艾 021-61761031 zhangweiai@guosen.com.cn 事项： 事件：2024年06月04日，以“深入践行汾酒复兴纲领、全面推动市场高质量发展”为主题的汾酒销售公 司经销商大会在云南昆明举行。 国信食饮观点：1）新版老白汾全面升级，青花20导入五码系统。2）数字化改造持续推进，文化重塑、 组织重塑、竞争力重塑或是核心。3）投资建议：山西汾酒步入高势能发展阶段，维持此前盈利预测，我 们预计公司2024-2026年实现营收384.7/451.7/519.3亿元，同比增长20.5%/17.4%/15.0%；预计实现归 母净利润131.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company has announced price increases for several key products, including the 10-year and 15-year Lao Bai Fen, effective June 20, with increases of 30 yuan per box, and the Panama 20-year product with an increase of 60 yuan per box [3][4]. - The Lao Bai Fen and Panama series are positioned as the company's mid-tier products, contributing significantly to its market share, which is close to 10 billion yuan [4]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 20% year-on-year for 2024, with the price adjustments and market strategy optimizations being crucial to achieving this goal [4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 387.54 billion yuan, 464.79 billion yuan, and 554.08 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21.4%, 19.9%, and 19.2% respectively [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 133.25 billion yuan, 167.15 billion yuan, and 205.31 billion yuan, with growth rates of 27.7%, 25.4%, and 22.8% respectively [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 10.92 yuan, 13.70 yuan, and 16.83 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on upgrading its mid-tier products and is making steady progress in channel reform, which is expected to drive revenue growth [4][5] - The introduction of the upgraded Qinghua 20 product with a "five-in-one" system is anticipated to enhance channel management and consumer traceability, thereby improving sales efficiency [5] - Long-term earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 10.60, 13.01, and 15.94 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 19, and 15 times [6] Summary by Sections Product Upgrades - The company announced price increases for several mid-tier products effective June 20, including a 60 yuan increase for the 42-degree Panama 20-year product and a 30 yuan increase for the 42/45-degree 10-year Fenjiu [4] - The upgrade of the Lao Bai Fen 10 product includes new packaging design and storytelling elements, which are expected to boost sales in the banquet market [4] Channel Management - The upgraded Qinghua 20 product features a new design and the "five-in-one" system, which includes an RFID chip for better channel management and consumer traceability [5] - The nationwide promotion of the new product is expected to enhance channel efficiency and improve price transmission after full market rollout [5] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 31.93 billion yuan in 2023 to 38.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 21.3% [8] - Net profit is expected to increase from 10.44 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.93 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 23.9% [8] - The report highlights a stable gross margin improvement, with gross margins projected to rise from 75.3% in 2023 to 78.0% in 2026 [10]

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料/必需消费 究 山 西汾酒(600809) [评Tab级le_I：nve st] 增持 强化腰部，优势凸显 上 次评级: 增持 [目Tab标le_T价arg格et] ： 325.50 ——山西汾酒更新报告 上 次预测: 325.50 [当Ta前bl价e_格Cu：rP rice] 243.10 公 [table_A ut訾ho猛rs] ( 分析师) 李耀(分析师) 司 021-38676442 8621-38675854 [ Table_Date] 2024.06.04 zimeng@gtjas.com liyao022899@gtjas.com 更 登 记编号 S0880513120002 S0880520090001 新 本报告导读： 报 [交Ta易ble数_M据ar ket] 公司2024年持续强化腰部单品布局，期内费用改革持续推进，公司产品线优势和组 告 织效率持续提升，在产业周期底部有望延续份额抬升，成长性、确定性兼具。 ...