Core Viewpoint - The liquor stocks experienced a significant decline, with major brands such as Tianyoude, Yanghe, and Shunxin all dropping over 5% in value, indicating a bearish trend in the sector [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianyoude Liquor saw a decrease of 5.81%, with a total market capitalization of 4.427 billion [2] - Yanghe shares fell by 5.67%, bringing its market value to 85 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 7.10% [2] - Shunxin Agriculture dropped by 5.53%, with a market cap of 11.1 billion and a year-to-date increase of 2.53% [2] - Other notable declines include Kuaizijiao (-4.95%, 17.8 billion), Yilite (-4.74%, 6.658 billion), and Jianshiyuan (-4.66%, 42.1 billion) [2] - Major brands like Wuliangye and Guizhou Moutai also experienced declines of 3.93% and 1.90%, respectively, with market caps of 413.1 billion and 1.7663 trillion [2]

4Q2025 食品饮料基金持仓分析 食品饮料 ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 分析师 皇立省 SAC 证书编号: S0160523090004 wuwd01@ctsec.com 分析师 任务营 SAC 证书编号: S0160524010001 renjx@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《国标加速推出,利好行业规范和集中 度提升 》 2026-01-23 2. 《牛肉进口政策落地,肉奶共振利好牧 2026-01-05 = 3. 《进口反补贴落地,利好国产替代》 2025-12-23 筹码再优化，大众品阶段性优于白酒 核心观点 � 风险提示: 消费力恢复不及预期，行业竞争加剧，食品安全问题等。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! t a production and the result of the first and the states of the states of the see of 行业投资策略报告 / 2026.01.29 公募基金食饮板块减配,超配比例持平。4Q2025 季末基金食品饮料板 * 块重仓持股比例为 6%，环比下降 0.3pct。全行业中，食饮板 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [4]. Core Insights - The liquor industry has entered a deep adjustment period, but recent positive changes in the real estate and domestic demand sectors, along with the market-oriented transformation of Moutai, are stimulating incremental demand and driving up prices, leading to a valuation recovery [2]. - The report recommends stocks with price elasticity such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as those expected to clear inventory like Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jianshiyuan, Zhenjiu Lidu, Shede Jiuye, and Jinhui Jiu [4]. Summary by Sections Market Environment - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, and policies are becoming more favorable. The liquor industry is a typical cyclical sector, with market pricing influenced by both internal demand and real estate conditions. The government has prioritized boosting domestic demand as a key task for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [4]. - The real estate market is gradually bottoming out after years of adjustment, with recent government actions aimed at stabilizing market expectations and improving conditions [4]. Moutai's Market Transformation - Moutai's market-oriented reform has sparked incremental demand, with significant attention on liquor sales during the Spring Festival. Moutai has introduced various products on its iMoutai platform, leading to a surge in online purchases and stable price performance [4]. - As of January 29, Moutai's price has increased by over 1,600 RMB, with transaction prices exceeding 1,700 RMB, indicating successful price-volume strategies [4]. Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its cycle, with liquidity improvements and expectations likely to catalyze stock prices. The report anticipates that if prices stabilize, the pressure on stock prices will lessen, and further positive signals from policies could enhance stock performance [4]. - The report includes earnings forecasts for key liquor companies, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% for Moutai from 2024 to 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected to decrease from 21 to 19 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a structural price differentiation, with the average retail price of the top ten liquor products showing a slight increase, driven by strong demand for premium products like Moutai [1][3]. Price Trends - The total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8,892 yuan, an increase of 41 yuan from the previous day, marking a new high in the last five days [1][4]. - Among the top ten products, four saw price increases, five decreased, and one remained stable, indicating a clear divergence in market performance [1][4]. - Moutai products are leading the price increases, with the price of Moutai flying liquor rising by 38 yuan per bottle and premium Moutai by 18 yuan per bottle, supported by pre-festival demand [1][4][6]. Individual Product Performance - The price changes for specific products include: - Moutai flying liquor: 1,665 yuan, up 38 yuan [6] - Premium Moutai: 2,369 yuan, up 18 yuan [6] - Wuliangye: 800 yuan, up 3 yuan [6] - Qinghua Fen 20: 372 yuan, up 1 yuan [6] - Xijiu Junpin: 637 yuan, down 7 yuan [7] - Qinghua Lang: 714 yuan, down 7 yuan [7] - Gujing Gonggu 20: 510 yuan, down 1 yuan [7] - Shuijing Jian Nan Chun: 389 yuan, down 1 yuan [7] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 579 yuan, unchanged [7]. Stock Market Reaction - The A-share market saw a significant rise in liquor stocks, with Moutai shares increasing by 8.61% to 1,437.72 yuan per share, reaching a peak of 1,445 yuan during trading, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a year [3][8]. - The total market capitalization of Moutai reached 1.8 trillion yuan, with a trading volume exceeding 26.3 billion yuan on that day [3][8]. Data Collection Methodology - The "Liquor Price Reference" collects data from approximately 200 sampling points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide objective and traceable market price data [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a structural price differentiation, with the average retail price of the top ten liquor products showing a recent increase, driven primarily by the recovery of high-end products like Moutai [1][4]. Price Trends - The total price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8,892 yuan, an increase of 41 yuan from the previous day, marking a new high in the last five days [1][4]. - Among the top ten products, four saw price increases, five decreased, and one remained stable, indicating a mixed market response [1][4]. - Moutai products are leading the price increases, with Feitian Moutai rising by 38 yuan per bottle and premium Moutai by 18 yuan per bottle, supported by demand for high-end banquets and gifts [1][4][6]. Individual Product Performance - The following products experienced price changes: - Feitian Moutai: 1,665 yuan/bottle, up 38 yuan - Premium Moutai: 2,369 yuan/bottle, up 18 yuan - Wuliangye: 800 yuan/bottle, up 3 yuan - Qinghua Fen 20: 372 yuan/bottle, up 1 yuan - Guojiao 1573: 857 yuan/bottle, down 3 yuan - Xijiu Junpin: 637 yuan/bottle, down 7 yuan - Qinghua Lang: 714 yuan/bottle, down 7 yuan - Ancient Well Tribute: 510 yuan/bottle, down 1 yuan - Crystal Jian Nan Chun: 389 yuan/bottle, down 1 yuan - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 579 yuan/bottle, unchanged [2][6][7]. Stock Market Reaction - The A-share market saw a significant rise in liquor stocks, with Moutai shares increasing by 8.61% to 1,437.72 yuan per share, reaching a peak of 1,445 yuan during trading, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a year [3][8]. - The total market capitalization of Moutai reached 1.8 trillion yuan, with a trading volume exceeding 26.3 billion yuan on that day [3][8]. Data Collection Methodology - The "Liquor Price Reference" collects data from approximately 200 sampling points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide objective and traceable market price data [3][8]. - The pricing data is weighted based on actual transaction volumes to reflect the true retail prices of Moutai products [3][8]. Regulatory Response - The iMoutai platform has responded to the sale of "purchase外挂" software, which disrupts market order and poses risks to consumers, emphasizing its commitment to maintaining a fair market environment [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the food and beverage sector, particularly driven by the recent policy initiatives and market dynamics [1][2] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) saw a significant increase of 5.58% in its index, with a trading volume of 73.1867 million yuan, indicating robust investor interest [1] - Major stocks within the ETF, including Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, reached their daily limit, while Kweichow Moutai, Shunxin Agriculture, and Huanleji rose over 8% [1] Group 2 - The State Council's recent policy aims to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, which is expected to inject strong policy expectations into the food and beverage sector [2] - Industry leaders are showing positive signals, with the price of Feitian Moutai significantly rising in a single day, boosting overall confidence in the sector [2] - Current valuations in the food and beverage sector are at relatively low historical levels, providing a notable margin of safety, as highlighted by industry analysts [2]

三是宏观层面的宽松预期为板块反弹带来了一定的想象空间。机构认为，市场已在博弈美联储未来的量 化宽松（QE）路径。一旦美联储开启QE，中国货币政策空间或将打开，有望推动实体经济资产负债表 修复与居民财富效应提升，从而驱动消费升级，开启白酒新一轮周期。 1月29日，白酒板块一根久违的长阳线，不仅击穿了箱体，更是点燃了市场情绪。这究竟是跌深反弹的 昙花一现，还是周期拐点的信号初现？且看机构近期研判。 1月29日，白酒板块在午后迎来久违的强劲拉升，申万白酒指数涨超5%，多只个股表现亮眼。机构分 析，这或是行业短期景气信号、低估值与宏观宽松预期等多重因素共振的结果。 一是春节动销"小阳春"初现，高端白酒批价已构筑"价格底"。随着2026年春节备货进入冲刺阶段，白酒 终端动销已渐次启动。太平洋证券研报认为，当前飞天茅台散瓶批价稳中有升，维持在1560元左右，五 粮液普五批价也趋于稳定。与此同时，茅台通过"i茅台"及专卖店团购拓宽消费群体，已初步交易出价 格底部，且传统渠道动销量未见明显下滑，预计全渠道有小幅增长。 二是板块估值处于历史极低分位，为反弹提供了较高的安全边际与赔率。华金证券研报数据显示，白酒 板块估值分位数低 ...

先说个题外话，今天公布了一个数字，下图，去年12月单月，全国彩票销售同比下降9.1%，而25年合计还是增长的，这意味着相对24年同期， 以及25年的1-11月，12月单月确实跌的很多且很猛。 与此同时， 25年12月A股的单月成交额 是43.26万亿，而24年12月同期是35.44万亿，同比增22%；而25年的1-11月的月均是34.2万亿，12月单月 相对前11个月的月均，环比增26.4%。 从以上这个数据对比中，你能得出什么结论？ 按照1月A股和贵金属的热度，咱们合理推测一下，1月彩票销售额同比、环比都会缩得比较厉害。 ...... 说回今天的A股——今天最靓的仔，有且仅有一个，就是被万众投资者"diss"的 白酒 。 我们用几张图，带大家聊聊今天的白酒，也试图复盘一下，大批量涨停背后的过程和逻辑。 第一张。 下图， 中证白酒一共18个成分股，今天除了茅台，全部涨停 ，这就意味着，买盘是以指数产品、或者指数形式，进行了大规模的扫货式买入，以至于雨 露均沾，集体涨停。 而茅台之所以没涨停，还是体量的问题，今日这18个票合计成交600亿出头，而茅台单只成交额就超过260亿，占比接近一半，这意味着，这笔突然涌入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is experiencing significant stock price increases, with several companies reaching their daily limit up. Group 1: Stock Performance - Shui Jing Fang, Shede Liquor, Huangtai Liquor, Jiu Gui Liquor, and Jin Hui Liquor all hit the daily limit up [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is approaching the daily limit up [1] - Jinzhongzi Liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai all saw stock increases exceeding 7% [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - There is an intensified divergence among mid-to-high-end baijiu products, with no discount contraction observed in food and beverage categories [1]. - The report highlights that the wholesale prices of various baijiu brands have shown stability or slight changes, with some brands experiencing price increases while others remain flat or decrease [3][4][35]. - Discounts on representative products in condiments, liquid milk, and soft drinks have widened compared to the end of December, indicating a shift in pricing strategies [19][32]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) and Moutai 1935 are reported at 1600, 1580, and 630 yuan respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and -10 yuan compared to last month [35]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 830 yuan, reflecting a +10 yuan increase from the previous month [35]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 remains at 850 yuan, unchanged from last month [35]. Discount Trends - The average discount rate for condiments decreased from 87.1% to 85.0%, while liquid milk discounts fell from 62.8% to 61.4% [19][22]. - In contrast, discounts for beer, infant formula, and convenience foods remained stable, with beer discounts slightly increasing from 80.3% to 80.7% [20][22][32]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with an "Outperform" rating, including: - Guizhou Moutai - Wuliangye - Luzhou Laojiao - Qingdao Beer - China Feihe - Others [1].