Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Records Industry: Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Key Points: - The overall performance of the baijiu industry in Q3 was under pressure, with most companies experiencing a decline in net profit, particularly those with significant revenue drops. [1][7] - Moutai maintained a stable performance with a 7% revenue increase, despite a drop in batch prices from 1,760 RMB to around 1,670 RMB, reflecting a more than 20% year-on-year decline. [1][10] - Wuliangye saw a significant revenue decline of 52% and a profit drop of 65%, indicating substantial pressure on its performance. [1][4] - Luzhou Laojiao performed better than expected, with effective strategies in place, although external environmental factors need to be monitored. [1][6] - The second-tier brand Fenjiu showed stable performance, with the Qinghua series growing by 9-10%, while Qinghua 30 experienced a decline of 20-30%. [1][5] - The overall baijiu sector is expected to continue adjustments in Q4 in preparation for the Spring Festival, which is a critical sales period. [1][8] Industry: Dairy Products Key Points: - The dairy sector faced weak terminal demand in Q3, with Yili's liquid milk revenue declining by 8.8%, while New Dairy achieved double-digit growth. [1][12] - The outlook for Q4 remains challenging, with expectations of continued pressure on liquid milk demand due to weak consumer confidence. [1][13] - New Dairy and Miaokelando are expected to maintain good growth through product innovation and market expansion. [1][13][14] Industry: Soft Drinks Key Points: - The soft drink industry showed stable performance in Q3, driven by strong travel demand and the introduction of new products. [1][15] - Dongpeng Beverage reported a 30.4% revenue increase, benefiting from new product launches, while competitors like Master Kong and Uni-President experienced revenue declines. [1][15][16] - Long-term growth prospects for Dongpeng and Nongfu Spring are viewed positively, while Master Kong and Uni-President are considered defensive dividend investment options. [1][18] Industry: Frozen Foods Key Points: - The frozen food sector is showing signs of stabilization, with demand not expected to worsen significantly. [1][20] - Leading companies are reducing expenditure, leading to some profit recovery, although growth rates remain modest. [1][20] - The industry is at a bottom turning point, with expectations for improvement in restaurant demand. [1][20] Industry: Snacks Key Points: - The snack sector saw slight revenue growth but at a slower pace, with rapid growth in bulk snack channels. [1][21] - New retail channels like Sam's Club are contributing significantly to revenue growth, despite some short-term impacts from public sentiment. [1][21] - The performance of key brands like Yanjin and Youyou has improved, indicating better operational efficiency and profitability. [1][25] Industry: Meat Products Key Points: - The meat product sector is considered a defensive dividend segment, with companies like Shuanghui Development and WH Group showing stable performance. [1][22] - Shuanghui's meat product sales remained steady, with a target of 30% growth in new channels for the upcoming year. [1][23] - WH Group's U.S. market performance was stable, with expectations for relatively stable pork prices in 2026. [1][24] Overall Market Performance Key Points: - The food and beverage sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a 5.5% decline as of October 31, 2025. [1][9] - The baijiu sector's valuation has decreased, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 18.9 times, lower than historical averages. [1][9] - Fund holdings in the baijiu sector have decreased, indicating potential for future capital inflow if demand improves. [1][9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025, driven by strong sales of specific products and successful expansion in external markets [3][6]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 8.96 billion yuan, an increase of 4.05% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.899 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.38% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 32.924 billion yuan, up 5.00%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.405 billion yuan, up 0.48% [2]. Product Performance - The growth in revenue was primarily led by Qinghua 20 and Glass Fen, with the company’s Fenjiu and other liquor revenues showing a year-on-year increase of 5.0% and a decrease of 28.6%, respectively [3]. - Fenjiu accounted for 98.2% of the liquor business revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points [3]. Regional Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue from the company's domestic market decreased by 35.2%, while revenue from external markets increased by 31.1%, with external revenue accounting for 74.6% of the liquor business [3]. Profitability - The company's gross profit margin increased by 0.34 percentage points to 74.63%, attributed to the rapid growth of Qinghua 20 [4]. - The net profit margin decreased by 1.78 percentage points to 32.36% due to an increase in tax and additional fees [4]. Cash Flow and Dealer Relations - Sales cash collection decreased by 2.53% year-on-year, but the company's contract liabilities remained high at 5.781 billion yuan, indicating strong dealer cooperation [5]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to perform well during the industry adjustment period, supported by its brand strength, product matrix, and channel management [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 36.214 billion yuan, 37.935 billion yuan, and 41.019 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 11.826 billion yuan, 12.406 billion yuan, and 13.547 billion yuan, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the liquor sector, indicating that the absolute allocation value is gradually becoming apparent, with specific recommendations for various companies [1][2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with a notable decline in revenue and profit margins, particularly in the high-end and regional segments. The report highlights that the industry is at a turning point, with potential for recovery as supply clears and demand stabilizes [2][3]. - In the beverage sector, leading companies are maintaining high growth rates, while the snack food segment shows a mixed performance, with some companies achieving remarkable growth through product innovation and channel expansion [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in the restaurant supply chain, with seasonal income improvements despite competitive pressures in pricing [4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Industry - In Q3 2025, the liquor sector reported revenues of 786.9 billion, a year-on-year decline of 18.4%, with net profits down 22.0% to 280.6 billion. This marks the largest quarterly decline since 2013 [2][12]. - The high-end liquor segment saw revenues of 546.6 billion, down 15.0%, while regional liquor revenues fell by 35.2% [2][15]. - Major brands like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu showed slight revenue increases, while others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao experienced declines exceeding 50% [2][19]. 2. Beverage and Snack Food - The beverage sector achieved Q3 revenues of 123.1 billion, up 11.3%, with net profits increasing by 30.2% to 22.2 billion. The overall growth in the beverage sector is driven by leading brands like Dongpeng Beverage [3][21]. - The snack food segment reported Q3 revenues of 133.8 billion, a slight decline of 1.0%, with net profits down 32.9% to 7.6 billion, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in this area [3][8]. 3. Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain reported Q3 revenues of 112.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, although net profits decreased by 6.3% to 5.2 billion, reflecting ongoing competitive pressures [4][7]. - The beer segment showed a slight revenue increase of 0.5% in Q3, with net profits rising by 7.4% to 28.3 billion, indicating resilience in the face of weak demand [4][7]. 4. Dairy and Health Products - The dairy sector reported Q3 revenues of 443.7 billion, down 1.5%, but net profits increased by 0.7% to 34.6 billion, suggesting a stabilization in profitability [8][19]. - The health products segment saw significant growth, with Q3 revenues of 59.7 billion, up 12.4%, and net profits soaring by 66.0% to 6.0 billion, highlighting a strong recovery in this area [8][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a strong resilience in performance and a clear growth path despite industry adjustments [4]. Core Insights - The company reported revenue of 329.24 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114.05 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.00% and 0.48% respectively. In Q3 alone, revenue was 89.60 billion yuan, with a net profit of 28.99 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.05% [1]. - The product mix is shifting towards the Fenjiu series, with revenue from Fenjiu reaching 87.81 billion yuan in Q3, a 4.97% increase year-on-year. The company is focusing on a "four-wheel drive" product matrix to enhance sales [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 76.10%, with a slight decrease to 74.63% in Q3. The company is adjusting its expense investment rhythm to maintain profitability during demand contraction [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 373 billion yuan, 392 billion yuan, and 421 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 123 billion yuan, 132 billion yuan, and 143 billion yuan. The expected growth rates are 3.5%, 5.3%, and 7.5% for revenue, and 0.8%, 6.8%, and 8.7% for net profit [4][5]. - The current price of the stock is 190.50 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 19 for 2025, decreasing to 16 by 2027 [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Wuliangye (000858.SZ) has significantly declined in Q3 2025, with a net profit drop of 66%, leading to a shift in the competitive landscape among top liquor companies in China [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Wuliangye reported revenue of 60.945 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.26%, and a net profit of 21.511 billion yuan, down 13.72% [1][3]. - For Q3 alone, Wuliangye's revenue fell by 52.66% to 8.174 billion yuan, and net profit dropped by 65.62% to 2.019 billion yuan [1][3][4]. Industry Context - The decline in Wuliangye's performance is attributed to a deep adjustment period in the liquor industry and insufficient recovery in effective demand [3][6]. - Among major listed liquor companies, only Kweichow Moutai experienced slight growth, while Wuliangye's decline was more pronounced compared to Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [3][6]. Competitive Landscape - In Q3, Shanxi Fenjiu surpassed Wuliangye in revenue, achieving 8.960 billion yuan, while Wuliangye ranked third [3][4]. - In terms of net profit, Wuliangye ranked fourth with 2.019 billion yuan, trailing behind Luzhou Laojiao's 3.099 billion yuan and Shanxi Fenjiu's 2.899 billion yuan [4]. Market Predictions - A report from GF Securities predicted a 30% decline in Wuliangye's Q3 revenue and a 45% drop in net profit, which sparked significant market attention [5]. - The same report suggested a potential shift in industry positions between Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, intensifying discussions about changes in the competitive landscape among leading liquor companies [5]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term performance pressures, analysts believe that Wuliangye's long-term value remains intact, with growth opportunities in low-alcohol products, international expansion, and cultural IP development [6].

作者 | 宫本 统筹 ｜ 张鹏霞 视觉 | 顾芗 秋意渐浓，白酒行业的"期末考"随之揭幕。2025年前三季度的财报披露期，在带来数据汇报的同时，也 堪比一场对企业耐力与定力的测验。 今年的市场环境，少有轻松二字。宏观经济承压、消费结构重塑、渠道去库存压力持续，叠加政策调控 与消费理性化的趋势，使得白酒行业正式步入"深度调整期"。中国酒业协会6月在《2025中国白酒酒业 市场中期研究报告》中指出，一季度白酒产量同比下降7.2%，经销商库存继续增加，价格倒挂现象加 剧，现金流压力增大。 ，， 这意味着，当前主导白酒竞争买卖的逻辑，已从"高歌猛进"逐渐转向"理性生长"，从"拼速度"转向"拼质 量"，从"抢规模"转向"稳结构"。 潮水的退去，代表着行业格局调整的机会，而真正经得起时间考验的，永远是那些专注眼前、踏实经营 的企业。在普遍趋冷的氛围里，汾酒的财报表现，如一股逆流而上的暖意，向整个白酒市场传递出了特 殊的信号。 根据日前汾酒发布的前三季度报告，公司实现营业收入329.24亿元，同比增长5.00%；归属于上市公司股 东的净利润为114.05亿元，同比增长0.48%。其中，第三季度单季收入达89.60亿元，同比 ...

Core Insights - The A-share liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with 18 out of 20 companies reporting revenue declines, and many facing drastic profit reductions, some exceeding 90% [1][2] - Shanxi Fenjiu has managed to achieve revenue growth of 5% year-on-year, reaching 32.92 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 0.48%, totaling 11.41 billion yuan, showcasing its resilience in a challenging market [1][2] Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is undergoing a paradigm shift, moving away from high growth to a period of deep adjustment, with traditional demand seasons showing signs of weakness [2][3] - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association indicates that while revenue and profit scales continue to expand, growth rates are slowing compared to the previous year [2] Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu's core product line, the Fenjiu series, generated 32.17 billion yuan in sales, marking a 5.54% increase, which is crucial for the company's overall performance [3] - The company's sales in non-local markets reached 21.81 billion yuan, a significant increase of 12.72%, driven by a strategic nationwide market expansion [3][4] Strategic Focus - Shanxi Fenjiu has shifted its strategic focus from rapid expansion to stable growth, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a steady approach in response to industry cycles [5][6] - The company is actively pursuing a youth-oriented strategy to engage younger consumers, leveraging social media and cultural initiatives to enhance brand appeal [6][10] Future Outlook - The trend of consolidation among top liquor brands is expected to continue, with Shanxi Fenjiu positioned to benefit from ongoing market opportunities, particularly in southern regions [8][9] - The company's multi-faceted growth strategy, which includes product, channel, and brand development, is anticipated to yield long-term benefits, especially in international markets [10]

Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor industry is struggling with growth, while mid-range and regional liquor companies are experiencing significant declines in performance, as evidenced by the third-quarter reports of 20 A-share liquor companies, highlighting challenges such as weak consumption, high channel inventory, and falling prices [1][8]. Company Performance Summary - Guizhou Moutai reported revenue of 130.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit of 64.6 billion yuan, up 6.25% [2][9]. - Wuliangye's revenue was 60.9 billion yuan, down 10.26%, with a net profit of 21.5 billion yuan, a decline of 13.72% [2][11]. - Shanxi Fenjiu achieved revenue of 32.9 billion yuan, a 5.00% increase, but its net profit fell by 1.4% to 39.7 billion yuan [2][10]. - Luzhou Laojiao's revenue decreased by 4.84% to 23.1 billion yuan, with a net profit of 10.8 billion yuan, down 7.17% [2][12]. - The performance of regional liquor companies like Kuaijie and Yingjia Gongjiu showed significant declines, with Kuaijie reporting a 46.23% drop in revenue and a 92.6% decrease in net profit [4][6]. Industry Trends - The third quarter showed a clear downward trend, with many regional liquor companies experiencing accelerated declines, and some even reporting losses [3][8]. - The "Matthew Effect" is becoming more pronounced, with only Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu achieving positive growth in both revenue and net profit among the 20 companies [8][13]. - The overall industry is undergoing a profound supply-side adjustment, with strong brand power and national distribution allowing leading companies to withstand cyclical fluctuations, while smaller companies face greater challenges [13]. Market Outlook - Expectations for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day indicate a potential 20%-30% decline in overall liquor demand, with inventory expected to increase by 10%-20% [13]. - The current high channel inventory and weak consumption scenarios suggest that the liquor industry will continue to face significant pressure into the 2026 Spring Festival [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that despite the challenging environment in the liquor industry, Shanxi Fenjiu has demonstrated resilience and growth, achieving steady revenue and profit increases in its Q3 2025 report, positioning itself as a strong player in the market [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shanxi Fenjiu reported revenue of 32.924 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.00%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.405 billion yuan, up 0.48% [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 8.960 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.05% year-on-year growth [1]. Strategic Positioning - The company has shifted its strategy from rapid expansion to stable growth, emphasizing quality over speed, which is crucial during the industry's adjustment phase [11]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's management has recognized the need for value enhancement as the industry transitions from scale expansion [11]. National Expansion - The company's sales revenue from outside its home province reached 21.813 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 12.72%, accounting for 66.25% of total revenue [6]. - The brand has successfully broken the perception of being a "local liquor" by achieving double-digit growth in external markets [7]. Product and Brand Strategy - The product matrix is well-defined, with core products generating 32.171 billion yuan in sales, a 5.54% increase, supporting stable growth [7]. - The company has implemented a tiered product structure, catering to various price segments, which has allowed it to capitalize on market opportunities [7]. - Marketing efforts include high-frequency brand exposure in key locations and innovative online and offline campaigns to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [10]. Channel Development - The number of external distributors increased to 2,872, with a net addition of 223 during the reporting period, indicating improved channel quality [13]. - Direct sales, group purchases, and e-commerce revenues surpassed 2.04 billion yuan, marking a 4.68% increase [13]. Market Response - Following the release of the Q3 report, Shanxi Fenjiu's stock price rose, reflecting positive market sentiment, with a 7% increase year-to-date [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience and strategic growth of Shanxi Fenjiu amidst a challenging environment for the liquor industry, showcasing its ability to maintain steady revenue and profit growth while adapting to market changes [1][3][10]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Shanxi Fenjiu achieved a revenue of 32.92 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.00%, with a net profit of 11.41 billion yuan, up by 0.48%. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 8.96 billion yuan, growing by 4.05% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company's revenue from sales outside its home province reached 21.81 billion yuan, a significant increase of 12.72%, accounting for 66.25% of total revenue [3][5]. Strategic Initiatives - Shanxi Fenjiu's management emphasizes a strategy of "stability over speed," focusing on quality growth rather than rapid expansion, which reflects a deep understanding of industry cycles [3][10]. - The company has successfully implemented a multi-faceted approach to enhance its national presence, with significant growth in high-potential economic regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta [5][7]. Product and Brand Development - The product matrix of Shanxi Fenjiu is well-defined, with core products generating 32.17 billion yuan in sales, a year-on-year increase of 5.54%. The company has developed a pyramid structure of products catering to various price segments [5][7]. - Marketing efforts include high-frequency brand exposure in key locations and innovative online and offline campaigns, enhancing brand recognition and consumer engagement [7][8]. Channel and Distribution - The number of provincial distributors increased to 2,872, with a net addition of 223 during the reporting period, indicating improved channel quality through a "survival of the fittest" mechanism [12]. - Direct sales, group purchases, and e-commerce platforms contributed over 2.04 billion yuan in revenue, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.68% [12]. Market Response - Following the release of the Q3 report, Shanxi Fenjiu's stock price rose, reflecting positive market sentiment and recognition of its steady growth trajectory [12].