研究报告 Research Report 4 Jun 2025 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国必选消费 6 月投资策略：布局"高股息+基本面改善"的股票 Layout stocks with high dividends and improved fundamentals [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus 价格：5 月茅台散瓶飞天批价延续回落态势，五粮液、国窖 1573 等高 端产品价格企稳；次高端市场分化明显，洋河 M3 水晶版、天之蓝价 格小幅回升，而 M6+价格继续回调。中低价位带整体保持平稳，市场 进入传统淡季调整期。5 月仅婴配粉代表产品较 4 月末折扣力度有所减 小，啤酒、液态奶、软饮料、方便食品与调味品的折扣力度均加大。 成本：5月软饮料/调味品/乳制品/速冻食品/啤酒/方便面现货成本指数 分别变动+0.34%/+0.30%/+0.03%/-0.57%/-0.81%/-1.22%，期货成本指数 变动分别为-0.78%/-2.70%/+0.33%/-0.74%/-2.84%/-1.26%。包材现货方 面，和去年同期相比，除 ...

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index showed mixed performance among bank stocks, while consumer electronics stocks experienced an upward trend [1] Insurance Sector - China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and China Ping An had market capitalizations of CNY 366.17 billion, CNY 339.41 billion, and CNY 984.99 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.35 billion, CNY 0.43 billion, and CNY 0.75 billion [5] - The stock prices changed as follows: China Life +0.78 (+2.26%), China Pacific +0.24 (+0.45%), China Ping An -0.03 (-0.36%) [5] Alcohol Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of CNY 1900.45 billion, CNY 220.40 billion, and CNY 484.70 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.54 billion, CNY 0.94 billion, and CNY 1.63 billion [5] - Stock price changes were: Kweichow Moutai +3.86 (+0.26%), Shanxi Fenjiu -0.44 (-0.24%), Wuliangye +0.19 (+0.15%) [5] Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang and Cambricon Technologies had market capitalizations of CNY 226.95 billion and CNY 254.19 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 2.09 billion and CNY 0.49 billion [5] - Stock price changes included: Northern Huachuang +13.03 (+2.19%), Cambricon Technologies +0.09 (+0.02%) [5] Automotive Sector - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of CNY 1100.23 billion, CNY 193.10 billion, and CNY 283.77 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 3.76 billion, CNY 0.30 billion, and CNY 0.14 billion [5] - Stock price changes were: BYD -0.08 (-1.36%), Great Wall Motors +6.03 (+1.69%), Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway +0.10 (+0.45%) [5] Shipping and Oil Sector - Sinopec, PetroChina, and COSCO Shipping had market capitalizations of CNY 698.37 billion, CNY 1530.55 billion, and CNY 250.31 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.23 billion, CNY 0.35 billion, and CNY 0.54 billion [5] - Stock price changes included: Sinopec +0.01 (+0.17%), PetroChina -0.06 (-0.37%), COSCO Shipping +0.06 (+0.72%) [5] Coal and Battery Sector - China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical, and CATL had market capitalizations of CNY 196.32 billion, CNY 778.05 billion, and CNY 1148.85 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.85 billion, CNY 0.40 billion, and CNY 0.37 billion [5] - Stock price changes were: China Shenhua -0.01 (-0.03%), Shaanxi Coal -0.21 (-1.03%), CATL +0.83 (+0.33%) [5] Other Sectors - Long江电力, China Nuclear Power, and Dongfang Fortune had market capitalizations of CNY 734.54 billion, CNY 195.40 billion, and CNY 332.68 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.68 billion, CNY 0.32 billion, and CNY 3.34 billion [6] - Stock price changes included: Long江电力 +0.39 (+1.89%), China Nuclear Power -0.13 (-0.43%), Dongfang Fortune 0.00 (0.00%) [6]

随着白酒行业竞争加剧，酒企纷纷通过"粉丝节"活动拉近与消费者的距离，强化品牌黏性。6月3日，北 京商报记者了解到，洋河股份推出的"梦想奇妙夜·2025洋河超级粉丝节"在河南郑州首发启动，活动包 含美酒品鉴、美食体验、非遗互动、"干杯音乐节"等多项内容。值得注意的是，贵州茅台、五粮液、泸 州老窖等头部酒企此前均已布局粉丝经济，通过品鉴会、文化节、封藏大典等形式增强用户归属感。事 实上，企业通过粉丝节活动，不仅能够增强品牌黏性，更重要的是可以获取宝贵的消费者数据，为产品 研发和市场策略提供支持。 业内人士表示，粉丝节的兴起，反映出酒企从"渠道驱动"向"消费者驱动"转型的趋势。粉丝节不仅是品 牌营销手段，更是酒企应对行业存量竞争、提升高端消费忠诚度的重要策略。 粉丝节成"新宠" 白酒企业加码粉丝互动活动，通过形式多样的粉丝节打造品牌与消费者的深度连接。酒企粉丝节不再是 单纯促销购买酒类产品，更在内容和形式上不断创新，展现出白酒行业营销转型的新趋势。 北京商报记者了解到，洋河股份的"梦想奇妙夜·2025洋河超级粉丝节"上，不仅融入了当地文化特色， 还有艺术展陈、美酒品鉴、美食体验、非遗互动等活动。此外，针对入场粉丝， ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 大众品：看好四大主题逻辑。5 月 26 日-5 月 30 日大众品中保健品仍延续良好态势（前期持 续推荐），而零食/乳制品则表现相对平稳，大众品方面目前我们重点推荐四条主线：①降本控 费逻辑；②新消费逻辑；③具备强α&Q2 存潜在业绩弹性标的；④主题性预期标的（乳制品/ 食品连锁等）。 板块投资建议 【首推】软饮料&低酒精"新品+低基数+即将迎来旺季+成本红利"下的投资机会：李子园/ 承德露露/东鹏饮料/百润股份/香飘飘等。 【港股食饮】建议关注：青啤 H、华润啤酒、百威、蒙牛乳业、卫龙美味、悠然牧业、康师傅、 统一等。 【白酒板块】推荐强α&持续享受集中度提升红利的白酒龙头酒企：山西汾酒/贵州茅台等。 【大众品】建议关注：①降本控费逻辑：西麦食品/五芳斋/李子园/立高食品等；②新消费逻辑 （市场空间大/有渠道或品类红利）：H&H/仙乐健康/康比特/百龙创园/卫龙美味/盐津铺子/甘 源食品等。③具备强 α/Q2 存潜在业绩弹性标的（结合基数）：三只松鼠/农夫山泉/青岛啤酒/ 燕京啤酒等；④ 主题性预期标的（乳制品/食品连锁等)：伊利股份/新乳业/周黑鸭/巴比食品 等。 食品饮料 证 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 食品饮料 证券研究报告 食品饮料周报：重点关注软饮料&低度酒精布局机会 大众品：看好四大主题逻辑。5 月 26 日-5 月 30 日大众品中保健品仍延续良好态势（前期持 续推荐），而零食/乳制品则表现相对平稳，大众品方面目前我们重点推荐四条主线：①降本控 费逻辑；②新消费逻辑；③具备强α&Q2 存潜在业绩弹性标的；④主题性预期标的（乳制品/ 食品连锁等）。 板块投资建议 【首推】软饮料&低酒精"新品+低基数+即将迎来旺季+成本红利"下的投资机会：李子园/ 承德露露/东鹏饮料/百润股份/香飘飘等。 【港股食饮】建议关注：青啤 H、华润啤酒、百威、蒙牛乳业、卫龙美味、悠然牧业、康师傅、 统一等。 【白酒板块】推荐强α&持续享受集中度提升红利的白酒龙头酒企：山西汾酒/贵州茅台等。 【大众品】建议关注：①降本控费逻辑：西麦食品/五芳斋/李子园/立高食品等；②新消费逻辑 （市场空间大/有渠道或品类红利）：H&H/仙乐健康/康比特/百龙创园/卫龙美味/盐津铺子/甘 源食品等。③具备强 α/Q2 存潜在业绩弹性标的（结合基数）：三只松鼠/农夫山泉/青岛啤酒/ 燕京啤酒等；④ 主题性预期标的（乳制 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1][53]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 1.06% last week, slightly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.02 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 sectors [4][9]. - The report highlights that the liquor sector is in a bottoming phase, with a focus on leading liquor companies for recovery. The impact of recent "alcohol bans" is expected to be limited, as current consumption is primarily driven by business banquets and personal consumption [4][9]. - The beer sector is showing signs of improvement as the peak demand season approaches, with a reported 4.8% year-on-year increase in beer production for April 2025 [4][23]. - The snack segment is characterized by high growth potential, driven by strong product categories and new distribution channels. The report emphasizes the positive market sentiment surrounding health-oriented products [4][25]. - The dairy sector is expected to stabilize as upstream production capacity adjusts, with milk prices anticipated to recover gradually [4][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was a decline of 1.06%, with soft drinks showing a notable increase of 9.27% [4][9]. - Top-performing stocks included Junyao Health and Huakai Mountain, with increases of 38.58% and 32.17%, respectively [4][9]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - As of June 1, 2025, the price of 2024 Flying Moutai (original) was 2,135 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous week [18]. - The beer production for April 2025 was reported at 2.896 million kiloliters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [23]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a significant increase in wine sales during the JD 618 shopping festival, with red wine sales up 200% year-on-year [50]. - Guangdong province reported a 13.1% year-on-year increase in beer production for April 2025 [50]. 4. Core Company Updates - Fuling Pickled Vegetable announced a cash dividend of 4.20 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 4.85 billion yuan [52]. - Haitian Flavor Industry declared a cash dividend of 8.60 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to 47.73 billion yuan [52].

长江电力 东方财富 02)中国核电 1951.90亿市值 7330.68亿市值 3284.08亿市值 15.40亿成交额 4.28亿成交额 23.58亿成交额 20.78 29.96 9.49 -0.24(-0.79%) -0.09(-0.94%) +0.16(+0.78%) 食品饮料 证券 中信证券 国泰海通 海天味业 ■双 3808.88亿市值 3169.82亿市值 2455.01亿市值 9.24亿成交额 19.31亿成交额 3.88亿成交额 25.70 17.98 44.15 +0.18(+0.71%) +0.80(+4.66%) -0.27(-0.61%) 消费电子 化学制药 恒瑞医药 立讯精密 工业富联 3747.37亿市值 2201.05亿市值 3663.63亿市值 5.37亿成交额 11.33亿成交额 15.91亿成交额 55.48 30.37 18.87 -0.06(-0.32%) -0.03(-0.10%) +0.74(+1.35%) 家电行业 农牧饲渔 牧原股份 格力电器 海尔智家 油气长官 2525.11亿市值 2326.02亿市值 2241.92亿市值 23.68亿成交额 5.79亿成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is facing significant challenges due to weak consumer demand and increased competition, with Shanxi Fenjiu emerging as the third-largest player in 2024, but struggling to maintain its position against stronger competitors like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [2][3][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The baijiu industry is experiencing a downturn, with a notable decline in production and a competitive landscape that poses risks even for leading companies [2][5]. - In 2024, the total revenue of the baijiu industry reached 796.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, while production fell to 4.145 million kiloliters, down 1.8% from the previous year [5][6]. Group 2: Shanxi Fenjiu's Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 12.79% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, Shanxi Fenjiu continued its growth trajectory with a revenue of 16.522 billion yuan, a 7.72% increase, and a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, up 6.15% [4]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Despite its revenue growth, Shanxi Fenjiu's profitability is under pressure, as it lags behind competitors like Luzhou Laojiao in net profit, with Shanxi Fenjiu's profit at 12.243 billion yuan compared to Luzhou Laojiao's 13.473 billion yuan [6][8]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's strategy appears to focus on volume over price, leading to lower average selling prices compared to competitors, which may hinder its ability to compete in the high-end market [8][9]. Group 4: Management and Governance Issues - Shanxi Fenjiu currently lacks a complete executive team, with the position of General Manager remaining vacant since June 2023, raising concerns about governance stability [10][12][15]. - The absence of a General Manager and recent high-level management changes may impact the company's strategic direction and operational effectiveness [15][16]. Group 5: Market Challenges - The company faces challenges from counterfeit products and market saturation, which could undermine its brand and consumer trust [18][19]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's market position is threatened by increasing competition from both established players and emerging brands, making it difficult to maintain its third-place ranking in the industry [2][19].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on growth opportunities within the industry, particularly highlighting structural differentiation in the market [3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the liquor industry, particularly the baijiu segment, is currently in a bottoming phase, with a prolonged adjustment cycle compared to previous years. The market is expected to recover as policy expectations improve, leading to a potential valuation recovery in the baijiu sector [3][20]. - The beer and beverage sectors are showing signs of recovery, with beer entering its peak season and companies like Yanjing Brewery and Qingdao Beer demonstrating strong performance. The beverage sector is still in a phase of releasing individual product potential, with companies like Dongpeng showing stable growth [4]. - The report emphasizes the structural growth in consumer goods, particularly in the snack food sector, where there are clear structural benefits. The report also notes improvements in the competitive landscape for seasoning and dairy products [5]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Industry - The baijiu industry is currently experiencing a U-shaped adjustment, with demand and expectations adjusting less severely than in previous cycles. The adjustment period is longer, and the market has largely priced in pessimistic expectations [3][20]. - The high-end baijiu segment shows resilience, while the mid-tier and lower-tier segments face increased competition. The report anticipates that as consumer spending power recovers, the demand for premium baijiu may increase [26]. Beer & Beverage Sector - The beer sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with 2024 projected to achieve historical highs in profit margins. The industry has been transitioning towards premiumization since 2017, which has driven growth in unit prices [37][40]. - The beverage sector is characterized by strong individual product performance, with companies like Dongpeng leading the way. The report notes that the beverage market is less affected by economic cycles compared to other segments [4][40]. Consumer Goods - The report highlights a continued trend of structural growth in the consumer goods sector, particularly in snack foods, where there are significant structural benefits. The seasoning and dairy product segments are also showing signs of marginal improvement [5]. - The report suggests that the overall consumer goods market is adapting to new consumption trends, with a preference for high-growth products [5].

食品饮料行业周报（6.2） 消费品/食品饮料 本周股东大会密集召开，从各家调研反馈看，白酒企业淡季销售仍承压，政策 风险影响短期情绪，建议关注电商活动下各大主流品牌价格趋势。食品企业积 极调整战略，布局增量渠道/增量市场，稳住原有基本盘同时开拓新机会。5 月 新消费表现较优，估值整体有所提升。6 月关注现金流、ROE 水平较好的传统 消费龙头补涨机会。 ❑ 核心公司跟踪：白酒股东大会反馈审慎，食品新产品/新渠道带来增量 山西汾酒：产品矩阵完善四轮驱动，汾享礼遇终端数量持续突破。汾酒充 分发挥清香品类优势，加强文化赋能。产品四轮驱动，老白汾重新梳理价 值定位"时间的朋友"，未来 2-3 年过百亿；青花 20 增长主引擎；高档 青 26&青 30 形成组合进攻。推进全国化 2.0，汾享礼遇活跃终端 88.9 万 家。 古井贡酒：客观承认产业压力，动作坚持精细运作。2025 年提出作风建 设管理年，对内强化管理、降本增效，对外抓市场拓展和客户服务，精耕 细作。持续聚焦古 20、古 16、古 8 等核心产品。全国化先实现板块化， 在几大核心省区做深做透。省内大本营也要做到坚不可摧，没有天花板。 迎驾贡酒：主动调整释放 ...