Core Insights - The current consumer industry shows a trend of differentiation, with mass consumption and government-business consumption performing distinctly. Companies that embrace new consumer groups, new business models, and new channels are emerging, while traditional food and beverage companies are solidifying their foundations and actively seeking change [3][4] - The core theme remains chasing structural prosperity, with a continued positive outlook on high-growth sectors such as snacks and soft drinks, while monitoring the recovery pace of the liquor and restaurant chains [3][4] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a shift towards health-conscious and emotional consumption, with products like large-pack beverages, sugar-free tea, and health-oriented snacks gaining traction. The emergence of diverse channels aligns with changing consumer habits, leading to significant growth in categories like konjac and quail eggs [3][4] - New channels such as online media e-commerce, offline delivery, and membership supermarkets are rising, providing efficient supply chain solutions and rapid growth opportunities for innovative companies [3][4] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with external risks expected to ease. Policies aimed at steady growth are anticipated to continue, improving consumer sentiment and spending power. The sector is currently undervalued, with a good safety margin [4][60] - Focus on high-end liquor with stable prices and strong brand equity, as well as potential cyclical recovery stocks like Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [4][60] Restaurant Chain Sector - The restaurant chain sector is showing signs of recovery, albeit with some challenges. The impact of consumption policies is gradually becoming evident, with expectations for improvement in consumer confidence and spending in the second half of the year [4][66] - The B-end is under pressure, but some demand is being compensated by the C-end. Companies in the frozen food and seasoning sectors are experiencing revenue growth challenges, while third-party sales are becoming a key support [4][66] Snack and Beverage Trends - The snack market is witnessing a robust growth trajectory, with the konjac category showing exceptional performance, with revenues increasing from 257 million yuan in 2022 to 838 million yuan in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate exceeding 80% [17][21] - The soft drink market is also growing steadily, with the retail scale expected to reach 585.8 billion yuan by 2024, driven by innovations in sports drinks and sugar-free beverages [29][32] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a coexistence of consumption upgrading and downgrading, with new channels capturing diverse consumer needs. Companies like Wancheng and Mingming are demonstrating strong growth potential through innovative channel strategies [11][24] - The overall industry is in a bottoming phase, with potential benefits from low valuations and supportive policies. The focus should be on high-end liquor and cyclical recovery stocks [60][55]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 22 日 把握酒类情绪修复机遇，回归业绩主线 食品饮料行业周报（6.22） 消费品/食品饮料 本周新华社、人民网等媒体均发文指向整治违规吃喝一刀切现象，对于部分地 区过度限制正常社交聚餐等行为从态度上进行纠偏，白酒侧有望对于除公务接 待以外场景产生的冲击带来修复，叠加整体估值处于低位，行业加速触底后建 议逢低布局龙头；啤酒侧关注情绪面修复下，在旺季动销催化中具备大单品放 量结构性增长的标的。此外，新消费短期有所回调，建议关注下半年延续高增 品类的估值切换机会。 海天味业：H 股挂牌上市交易。6 月 19 日公司全球发售 2.79 亿股 H 股股 票在香港联交所主板挂牌并正式上市，扣除相关费用后预计收取发售款净 额约为 100.10 亿港元。 ❑ 核心公司跟踪：白酒积极调整应对环境，小食品、宠物景气延续 五粮液：股东会公司表态积极奋进，环境有挑战不改初心，分红有望进一 步提升。公司股东会表态积极，25 年分红率有望进一步提升。普五坚持 量价平衡，1618 以高质量动销为导向。营销执行提升年，精细化渠道政 策持续推进，成立销售公司、实施市场化机制考核。25H ...

1 、 茅五汾泸PR走势 贵州茅台PR走势 （ 绿色线 ） ： 五粮液PR走势 （ 绿色线 ） ： 山西汾酒PR走势 （ 绿色线 ） ： 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：市场李先生 来源：雪球 白酒过去几个月连续下跌 ， 与指数呈现截然相反的走势 ， 成为年度最差板块 ， 飞天茅台批发价跌破 1900元 ， 再叠加 " 史上最严 " 的禁酒令 ， 最很多人直呼白酒不行了 ， 年轻人不喝白酒了 ， 白酒业绩 要腰斩 ， 白酒没有未来了 …… 每个人的看法不一样 ， 以上的观点无可厚非 。 作为重仓白酒的我 ， 今 天从市赚率估值角度看一下白酒的估值如何 。 估值模型 ： 市赚率 ， 发明者@ericwarn丁宁 ， 公式 ： 市赚率=市盈率/净资产收益率 （ PR=PE/ROE ） ， 市赚率1PR为合理估值 ， 大于1PR和小于1PR则为高估和低估 。 2 、 估值对比分析 通过市赚率走势对比可以看出 ， 五粮液 、 山西汾酒 、 泸州老窖的PR最低值均出现在2024年9月份 ， 也就是924行情开始前市场最低迷的时刻 ， 而贵州茅台在今年的6月份又 ...

张大伟 制图 ◎记者 费天元 6月20日，A股市场延续震荡态势。盘面上，除银行股持续走强外，其余板块多数呈现轮动态势。前一 日领涨的科技股昨日出现回调，而此前低迷的白酒板块则触底反弹。 截至收盘，上证指数报3359.90点，跌0.07%；深证成指报10005.03点，跌0.47%；创业板指报2009.89 点，跌0.84%。市场量能再度缩水，沪深两市合计成交10678亿元，较前一个交易日缩量超1800亿元。 银行股、白酒股领涨 昨日，银行与白酒两大权重板块表现强势，带动沪指相对抗跌。 申万银行指数昨日上涨0.69%，本月累计上涨接近5%，今年以来涨超12%。个股方面，交通银行、厦门 银行、民生银行等涨超2%，杭州银行、浦发银行、南京银行等盘中均创历史新高。 央行数据显示，截至5月末，人民币贷款余额266.32万亿元，同比增长7.07%。5月，人民币贷款增加 6200亿元。居民中长贷弱势修复，5月居民中长期贷款新增746亿元，同比多增232亿元，提前还贷现象 或有所缓解。 财信证券认为，外部环境不确定性增加及低通胀的环境下，货币政策有望延续宽松，以降低实际利率， 支持实体经济发展。随着无风险收益率的进一步下行， ...

白酒股终于迎来了久违的上涨行情。 6月20日，白酒股震荡反弹，截至收盘，皇台酒业涨停，迎驾贡酒、金种子酒涨超5%，山西汾酒、古井 贡酒、今世缘、泸州老窖、水井坊等跟涨。 分析认为，2025年白酒行业正迎来重要拐点，政策预期回暖叠加估值修复逻辑，白酒板块有望在低估 值、低预期背景下展现较强配置价值。经历4年估值调整后，白酒股估值水平已回归合理区间，投资价 值逐步显现。 | 房 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 现价(元) | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 000995.SZ Mi | 二四元册 | 14.65 | 9.98 | | 2 | 603198.SH M | 迎驾贡酒 | 41.32 | 7.19 | | 3 | 14 HS 661009 | 奥中克带 | 11.00 | 5.67 | | 4 | 600809.SH MI | 四西汾酒 | 183.44 | 3.87 | | ഗ | 000596.SZ Mi | 古井贡酒 | 141.09 | 3.82 | | 6 | 603369.SH Mi | 今世緣 | 39.39 | 3.41 | ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is under short-term pressure, but there are medium-term strong alpha layout opportunities [2][11] - The consumer goods sector is focused on "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" and "market share improvement" as two main investment opportunities [3][13] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From June 9 to June 13, the food and beverage sector and the CSI 300 index had declines of -4.37% and -0.25% respectively. Specific sectors include: - Health products (+2.44%) - Baked goods (-0.72%) - Meat products (-1.15%) - Soft drinks (-1.75%) - Snacks (-1.85%) - Dairy products (-2.41%) - Pre-processed foods (-3.00%) - Other alcoholic beverages (-3.43%) - Fermented seasonings III (-3.57%) - Baijiu III (-5.31%) - Beer (-6.61%) [1][18] Liquor Sector Insights - The baijiu sector saw a decline of -5.31%, underperforming the overall food and beverage sector and the CSI 300. This is attributed to: 1. Price declines of major baijiu products ahead of the 618 shopping festival 2. Potential impacts from "drinking bans" on certain consumption scenarios - Current prices for 2025 Moutai (original/scattered) are 2000 RMB/1960 RMB, down by 115 RMB/70 RMB from last week. The price for Pu'er (8th generation) is 930 RMB, down by 10 RMB from last week. The baijiu index PE-TTM is currently at 17.81X, which is 3.40% below the reasonable low level over the past decade [2][11][12]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The health products sector saw a positive growth of +2.44%. The report remains optimistic about investment opportunities in health products, soft drinks, and snacks, especially in Q2 due to low performance baselines. The focus is on companies that can achieve "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" and "market share improvement" [3][13][16]. - The soft drink sector experienced a decline of -1.75%, with notable companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage facing slight declines. The report suggests monitoring the demand resilience as the peak season approaches [13][16]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the soft drink and low-alcohol sectors include: Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulu, Dongpeng Beverage, and others [4][17]. - For the liquor sector, strong alpha companies benefiting from concentration increases are recommended, including Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [4][17]. - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" and "market share improvement" are highlighted, including: Lihigh Food, Ximai Food, and others [4][17].

站在新起点上，竹叶青酒被汾酒列为重点培育对象。 6月17日，山西汾酒在线上召开2024年度暨2025年第一季度业绩说明会。 财报显示，2025年一季度山西汾酒营业收入165.22亿元，同比增长7.72%，归属于上市公司股东的净利润66.48亿元，同比增长6.15%。对于一季度财报， 山西汾酒董事长袁清茂表示，一季度公司有序推进年度营销规划，保持了稳健的增长。 注意到，2025年是汾酒复兴纲领第二阶段的第一年。 据汾酒2022年披露的"复兴纲领"显示，第二阶段是2025年—2030年，在这一阶段汾酒将进入成果巩固与要素调整期，重点推进全国化2.0、国际化1.0和年 轻化1.0战略，优化"一体两翼"品牌战略，明确青花汾酒系列高端化、竹叶青酒抢占银发市场、杏花村酒全国布局等营销策略。 世界晋商网了解到汾酒高管强调，杏花村酒与竹叶青酒是公司重点培育对象。竹叶青酒正按照"露酒白酒化、功能化、时尚化"三条道路及"悦己、好喝、 低度、文创、国风"五要素进行市场规划。杏花村酒则定位"中国诗酒第一品牌"，加强品牌价值挖掘和新零售渠道建设。 ▍露酒正当红 在大健康产业发展的如火如荼之际，露酒或将成为汾酒抢占市场份额的关键领域。 ...

截至6月20日收盘，白酒概念上涨0.83%，位居概念板块涨幅第6，板块内，28股上涨，皇台酒业涨停， 迎驾贡酒、金种子酒、中锐股份等涨幅居前，分别上涨7.19%、5.67%、5.42%。跌幅居前的有流金科 技、巨力索具、*ST椰岛等，分别下跌5.26%、3.01%、2.68%。 资金流入比率方面，皇台酒业、泸州老窖、怡亚通等流入比率居前，主力资金净流入率分别为 30.18%、17.06%、15.50%。（数据宝） 白酒概念资金流入榜 | 600395 | 盘江股 | 0.00 | 0.33 | -7.40 | -0.23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 份 | | | | | | 600696 | *ST 岩 | -2.30 | 1.96 | -31.92 | -0.74 | | | 石 | | | | | | 600365 | ST通葡 | -0.30 | 0.85 | -37.45 | -3.14 | | 603589 | 口子窖 | 2.22 | 1.10 | -76.44 | -0.34 | | 600381 | *ST 春 天 | -1.52 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The main capital inflow sectors include banking, food and beverage, and transportation, while the computer, machinery, and cultural media sectors experienced significant outflows [1][2][3] - The banking sector saw a net inflow of 15.03 billion, representing a 5.87% increase, while the food and beverage sector had a net inflow of 11.00 billion, with a 4.39% increase [2] - The computer sector faced the largest net outflow of 48.89 billion, with a decrease of 5.29% [3] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - N Xin Heng Hui led individual stock inflows with a net inflow of 4.52 billion, reflecting a 31.02% increase [4] - Shenghong Technology experienced the highest net outflow at 4.44 billion, with a decrease of 10.39% [5] - Other notable inflows included Qiangli New Materials and Chuanrun Shares, with net inflows of 4.44 billion and 3.55 billion, respectively [4]

最近，白酒板块逐渐企稳，今天上午迎来强势反弹，"茅五泸"齐涨。泡泡玛特最近则持续回调，今天上 午下跌5.23%。 新能源赛道、银行、保险、半导体产业链等板块上午上涨。 银行板块中，杭州银行、浦发银行、南京 银行、中信银行、江苏银行等个股盘中股价集体创历史新高。 固态电池板块延续近期活跃态势， 龙头股海科新源（301292）开盘仅仅1分钟，就拉升至"20CM"涨 停，迎来"两连板" 。 | 海科新源 7 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301292 创 融 L1 | | | | | | 高 23.52 | | 23.52 市值 52.40亿 量比 5.57 | | | | 21.29 ਜ਼ਿੰ | 流通 20.02亿 | 换 | | 33.26% | | 3.92 20.00% 中 21.30 市盈 " 亏损 | | 额 | | 6.441Z | | 同在顺 异动解读:固态电池+锂电池材料。行业原因 ... ● × 博弟 | | | | | | 分时 月K | | | 更多。 | | | 日K | | 五日 | | | | 均价: 22.76 最新: 23 ...