Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the liquor sector, particularly for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while suggesting a cautious approach towards Yingjia and Luzhou Laojiao [9][18]. Core Insights - The report indicates that Kweichow Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with a traditional channel delivery progress of 25%, maintaining zero inventory in channels. The demand side shows a double-digit growth year-on-year, supporting the price stability at 1499 RMB [1][18]. - The liquor industry is experiencing a bifurcation in brand performance, with Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showing positive sales trends, while other brands like Gujing and Yingjia are facing declines [9][18]. - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival for sales, with a tight supply-demand relationship expected to support prices, although a slight decline post-festival is anticipated [1][18]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Kweichow Moutai's payment progress is at 36%, with a delivery rate of approximately 20%, expected to increase to over 25%. The sales performance is strong, with a growth rate exceeding 10% year-on-year [2][11]. - Wuliangye's payment progress is at 60%, with a sales growth of 30% year-on-year, indicating a stable market condition similar to the previous year [3][14]. - Other brands like Fenjiu and Gujing are experiencing varied performance, with Fenjiu showing a slowdown in growth while Gujing's sales of certain products have declined significantly [2][3][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bottom-fishing strategy for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also recommending attention to Yingjia and Luzhou Laojiao for potential rebounds [9][18]. - It identifies four main lines for consumer goods: recovery in the restaurant chain, raw milk cycle turning point, high valuation and performance alignment, and bottom-fishing for companies like China Resources Beverage and Qiaqia Food [9][18]. Industry Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating Kweichow Moutai's market cap at 17544 million RMB with a PE ratio of 20, while Wuliangye has a market cap of 4076 million RMB with a PE ratio of 17 [20].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a strong rally, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a price increase of 2.59% as of the latest report, with a peak increase of 3.28% during trading [1][2] - Major stocks in the liquor segment have surged, with notable increases such as Shui Jing Fang rising over 8%, Jin Hui Jiu increasing over 7%, and other brands like Wu Liang Ye and Shanxi Fen Jiu also showing significant gains [1][2] - Tianfeng Securities reports that the liquor sector has been in a correction phase for about five years, with current valuations and institutional positions at historical lows, suggesting potential for recovery as market sentiment improves [1][3] Group 2 - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.81, which is in the bottom 3.33% of the last decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - The industry is undergoing significant changes, with leading liquor companies actively engaging consumers and adjusting pricing strategies to maintain market balance, while smaller companies are clearing inventory [3] - The ETF has a diversified portfolio, with approximately 60% allocated to leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and 40% to other segments like beverages and dairy, highlighting its comprehensive approach to the food and beverage sector [4]

Group 1 - Gujing Gongjiu announced a mid-term dividend of 10 RMB per 10 shares, totaling 528 million RMB, consistent with last year's dividend, to be implemented on February 10 [1] - The total mid-term dividends for leading liquor companies, including Gujing Gongjiu, Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, will exceed 42.5 billion RMB [4] - Investors are questioning the sustainability of dividends from liquor stocks due to last year's overall performance decline in the sector [4] Group 2 - Kweichow Moutai's dividend rate is expected to be no less than 75% of its net profit for 2025, while Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao's rates are set at 70% [5] - The cash balances of major liquor companies as of Q3 2025 show sufficient funds for dividend commitments, particularly for Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [6] - The competitive landscape and declining performance may lead to a slight reduction in total dividends for the six major liquor companies in 2025 [5] Group 3 - The liquor industry is responding to regulatory calls for increased dividends to attract investors, particularly among companies with strong profitability but slower growth [4] - Other liquor companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Yanghe have yet to announce their mid-term dividends for 2025, despite previous years' timely disclosures [4] - The overall dividend landscape in the liquor sector is under scrutiny as companies adjust their dividend policies in response to market conditions [5]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a strong rally, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) seeing a price increase of 2.59% as of the latest report, following a peak increase of 3.28% during the trading session [1][7] - Major liquor stocks have surged, with notable increases including Shui Jing Fang up over 8%, Jin Hui Jiu up over 7%, and Jiu Gui Jiu up over 5%, while other prominent brands like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao also showed significant gains [1][7] Group 2 - According to Tianfeng Securities, the liquor sector has been in a correction phase for about five years, with current valuations and institutional positions at historical lows. The market sentiment is generally pessimistic, but there is potential for stock prices to recover ahead of fundamental improvements [3][9] - The food and beverage ETF Huabao is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.81, placing it in the bottom 3.33% of the last decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3][9] Group 3 - CITIC Securities highlights significant changes in the liquor industry since 2026, emphasizing the need for companies to enhance customer engagement and education. The focus on consumer-centric channel collaboration is expected to be a key competitive advantage in the next market cycle [4][10] - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF allocates approximately 60% of its portfolio to leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, while nearly 40% is invested in leading stocks from other segments like beverages and dairy [4][10]

格隆汇2月2日｜白酒股盘初走高，其中，水井坊涨超5%，山西汾酒、贵州茅台、五粮液涨超3%，古井 贡酒、舍得酒业跟涨。消息上，酒价内参2月2日价格发布，十大单品涨跌分化整体价格升至阶段高位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market shows a divergence in retail prices for the top ten products, with an overall upward trend in prices, reaching the highest level since January 8, 2023, at a total price of 9020 yuan for a bundled sale of these products, an increase of 9 yuan from the previous day [1]. Price Movements - Among the top ten products, seven saw price increases while three experienced declines. Notable price increases include: - Guojiao 1573, Qinghua Fen 20, and Gujing Gong 20, each rising by 10 yuan per bottle due to channel restocking and a shift in transaction focus [1]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation increased by 8 yuan per bottle, indicating a recovery in the price difference between wholesale and retail [1]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ rose by 6 yuan per bottle, supported by regional inventory reduction [1]. - Premium Moutai increased by 2 yuan per bottle, driven by high-end gifting demand, accumulating a total increase of over 60 yuan in four consecutive days [1]. - Crystal Jian Nan Chun saw a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1]. Price Declines - The products that experienced price declines include: - Xijiu Junpin, which fell by 17 yuan per bottle, reaching a 30-day low at an average price of 625 yuan [1]. - Feitian Moutai decreased by 15 yuan per bottle [1]. - Qinghua Lang dropped by 6 yuan per bottle [1]. Current Prices of Major Products - Current retail prices for notable products are as follows: - Feitian Moutai: 1715 yuan per bottle, down by 15 yuan [3]. - Premium Moutai: 2417 yuan per bottle, up by 2 yuan [3]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation: 801 yuan per bottle, up by 8 yuan [4]. - Qinghua Fen 20: 384 yuan per bottle, up by 10 yuan [4]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 585 yuan per bottle, up by 6 yuan [4]. - Gujing Gong 20: 520 yuan per bottle, up by 10 yuan [4]. - Xijiu Junpin: 625 yuan per bottle, down by 17 yuan [4]. - Qinghua Lang: 707 yuan per bottle, down by 6 yuan [4]. - Crystal Jian Nan Chun: 389 yuan per bottle, up by 1 yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The report rates multiple companies in the consumer staples sector as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - The consumer staples industry in January 2026 shows a recovery in basic demand while hedonic consumption remains under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different segments [3][29]. - Among the eight key consumer industries tracked, four are experiencing positive growth (condiments, frozen food, soft drinks, and catering), while four are facing declines (high-end and above Baijiu, mass-market Baijiu, dairy products, and beer) [29]. Summary by Segment Baijiu (High-end and Above) - In January, the revenue for high-end Baijiu reached 47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.0%. The price pressure is significant, with expectations of over a 10% price drop throughout the year due to high inventory levels [11]. Baijiu (Mass-market and Below) - The mass-market Baijiu segment generated 22.9 billion yuan in January, down 3.0% year-on-year. Despite the decline, the segment shows resilience due to rigid demand and adaptability to consumption scenarios [13]. Beer - The beer industry reported revenues of 17 billion yuan in January, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year. The demand was affected by adverse weather and the delayed Spring Festival, leading to a cautious inventory approach by distributors [15]. Condiments - The condiment sector achieved revenues of 46.9 billion yuan in January, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%. The recovery in the catering channel and increased demand from small and medium-sized businesses are key drivers [17]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector's revenue was 43.5 billion yuan in January, down 3.3% year-on-year. The demand remains under pressure, but a potential recovery is anticipated in the coming months due to low base effects [19]. Frozen Food - The frozen food segment saw revenues of 14.99 billion yuan in January, with a year-on-year increase of 8%. The demand is supported by pre-Spring Festival stocking and favorable weather conditions [21]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink industry generated 96.2 billion yuan in January, with a modest growth of 1.1% year-on-year. Increased promotional activities indicate heightened market competition [24]. Catering - The catering sector reported revenues of 16.2 billion yuan in January, up 2.5% year-on-year. The demand is gradually improving, particularly in small and medium-sized restaurants [26].

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the China Securities Xinhua National Brand Engineering Index rising by 0.10% to 2029.77 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62% [1][2] - Key stocks such as Lanke Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Luzhou Laojiao showed strong performance, with Lanke Technology leading with a 13.64% increase [2] - Since the beginning of 2026, Lanke Technology has surged by 54.37%, followed by Zhaoyi Innovation at 46.97%, indicating significant growth among certain stocks [2] Group 2 - Market performance was heavily influenced by investor sentiment, with significant volatility across different styles and sectors, particularly in defensive financial sectors [3] - The recent market fluctuations are attributed to the excessive gains in certain sectors, while fundamental and liquidity factors remain stable [3] - Looking ahead, the A-share market is expected to present mid-term investment opportunities, driven by trends in household savings and performance realization across multiple industries [3] Group 3 - Precious metals and resource sectors, which had previously seen significant gains, experienced a pullback, leading to a shift in funds towards more certain areas [4] - The logic behind the non-ferrous metals industry remains unchanged, with constrained supply and increasing demand from emerging sectors like new energy and AI expected to support price increases [4] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is anticipated to favor economic stimulation over inflation suppression, benefiting large commodities priced in dollars [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for Moutai during the Spring Festival is more resilient than expected, indicating a clear improvement trend for mass-market products [4] - The food and beverage index increased by 1.6% from January 26 to January 30, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.5 percentage points [4][15] - The white wine market is gaining attention due to expectations of improvement in related industries, with Moutai's wholesale prices showing unexpected resilience [4][43] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector ranked 5th among primary sub-industries, with white wine (+3.9%), meat products (+0.5%), and other foods (0.0%) leading the performance [4][15] - Notable individual stock performances include Huangtai Liquor, Liziyuan, and CITIC Niya showing significant gains, while Haoxiangni, *ST Chuntian, and Anji Food experienced declines [4][15][20] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of fresh milk at 3.04 yuan/kg, down 2.6% year-on-year [21] - The price of pork is 18.6 yuan/kg, down 19.9% year-on-year, while the price of white strip chicken is 17.0 yuan/kg, down 1.2% year-on-year [23][29] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Ganyuan Food, with each showing potential for growth in 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the liquor and food sectors, particularly highlighting the potential for growth during the upcoming Spring Festival season [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the initiation of the Spring Festival peak season for liquor sales, with leading brands like Moutai showing significant improvements in sales and pricing, indicating a recovery in market sentiment and expectations [1][2]. - In the food sector, there is an anticipated boost in demand due to pre-holiday stocking, with specific focus on snack foods and beverages as key growth areas [1][2]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The report indicates that the liquor market is entering a peak season, with Moutai leading the way in sales and price recovery, driven by increased demand and channel reforms [2]. - Other notable brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Ancient Well, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for short-term investment due to their strong performance and market positioning [1]. Food Sector - The food sector is expected to benefit from pre-holiday stocking, with companies like Anjuke and Qiaqia Foods positioned to capitalize on the festive demand [2][4]. - Anjuke is focusing on new product launches and expanding into overseas markets, while Qiaqia Foods is set to improve profitability in 2026 due to lower raw material costs [4][3]. Growth Opportunities - The report identifies growth opportunities in the snack and beverage segments, with specific companies such as H&H International Holdings and Nongfu Spring highlighted for their potential [1][2]. - The emphasis is placed on the recovery of the restaurant and dairy sectors, with companies like Yili and Qingdao Beer expected to show positive performance [1][2].