白酒 事件点评 山西汾酒（600809.SH） 买入-A(维持) 汾酒「巨匠」系列发布，注入全新的时代活力 2024 年 8 月 26 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 市场数据：2024 年 8 月 23 日 收盘价（元）： 177.78 年内最高/最低（元）： 273.68/173.20 流通A股/总股本（亿）： 12.20/12.20 流通 A 股市值（亿）： 2,168.85 总市值（亿）： 2,168.85 基础数据：2024 年 3 月 31 日 基本每股收益(元)： 5.13 摊薄每股收益(元)： 5.13 每股净资产(元)： 28.31 净资产收益率(%)： 18.14 和芳芳 执业登记编码：S0760519110004 邮箱：hefangfang@sxzq.com 事件描述 事件：8 月 21 日晚，汾酒全新「巨匠」系列，在山西杏花村汾酒博物馆 发布。 事件点评 文创酒发布提高汾酒品牌影响力。汾酒「巨匠」系列将传统工匠精神与 现代创新思维相融合，为汾酒品牌注入全新的时代活力。「巨匠」系列采用 独特的"活态三非遗工艺"，即酒、器、盒分别采用三种不同非遗工艺，包括： 非遗杏花村汾酒酿制 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 山西汾酒（600809） 公司更新：疾风劲草，汾享神州 2024 年 08 月 08 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 26214 | 31928 | 38503 | 45900 | 54540 | | 同比（%） | 31.26 | 21.80 | 20.59 | 19.21 | 18.82 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 8096 | 10438 | 13242 | 16209 | 19825 | | 同比（%） | 52.36 | 28.93 | 26.86 | 22.41 | 22.30 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 6.64 | 8.56 | 10.85 | 13.29 | 16.25 | | P/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu is recognized as a leading brand in the Chinese liquor industry, with a significant historical and cultural background. The company has shown remarkable growth, with a total market capitalization increase of 1233% from early 2016 to July 2024, making it the top performer among liquor companies [2][3] - The company has successfully navigated through market fluctuations and has demonstrated strong resilience and growth potential, referred to as "Fenjiu Speed" [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Shanxi Fenjiu has a rich history of over 6000 years in liquor production, with its revenue surpassing 30 billion yuan in 2023, ranking fourth among liquor companies in terms of revenue [12][13] 2. Market Dynamics - The liquor industry has experienced a recovery since 2016, driven by macroeconomic improvements and a shift in consumer preferences towards higher-quality products. The company has benefited from this trend, particularly in the mid-to-high-end and light bottle liquor segments [3][4] 3. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages its strong brand heritage and cultural significance to expand its market presence. It has a strategic focus on key products like Qinghua 20 and Glass Fen, which cater to different price segments [4][5] - The geographical advantage of being a leading liquor brand in the Yellow River basin enhances its market position, especially in northern China [4][5] 4. Future Outlook - The company plans to strengthen its product offerings in the high-end market and enhance its presence in southern China, which is expected to contribute to future growth. The report forecasts revenue growth from 386.33 billion yuan in 2024 to 551.69 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to reach 192.80 billion yuan by 2026 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7][38] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to maintain strong growth momentum due to a solid foundation in both product and regional dimensions, with potential space gradually being realized [2][7][38] - The estimated EPS for 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 10.91 and 13.22 CNY, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17 and 14 times based on the latest closing price [2][7][38] Product Analysis - The company has achieved a full price range layout, with the "Qinghua 20" product becoming the largest single product, surpassing 10 billion CNY in sales in 2023 [4][12][20] - The company has three main advantages in the product segment: 1. Aroma advantage: Leading in the clear aroma category, especially in the mid-to-high-end market with no direct competitors [14][15] 2. Brand advantage: As one of the four famous liquors in China, it has a deep brand heritage and consumer base [15] 3. Matrix advantage: The company is one of the few that has a full price range layout with multiple strong products, enhancing its risk resistance [15] Regional Analysis - The company has established a national layout, with 2023 provincial income of 12.084 billion CNY and out-of-province income of 19.659 billion CNY, with out-of-province income growing faster than provincial income since 2019 [5][25] - The out-of-province income growth rate in 2023 was approximately 23%, while provincial income growth was about 20% [5][25] - The company has formed a tiered layout of "Shanxi base - surrounding Shanxi market - East China, South China market" [25] Management Capability - The company is implementing a "123 program" for its revival, focusing on high-quality development, with two phases planned until 2030 [6][32] - Management capabilities are continuously improving through organizational adjustments and digitalization [6][33] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth momentum, with projected revenues of 38.78 billion CNY and 46.70 billion CNY for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with growth rates of 21.5% and 20.4% [38][41] - The estimated net profit for 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 13.31 billion CNY and 16.13 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 27.5% and 21.2% [41][42]

山西汾酒（600809）跟踪分析报告 国应介技，景气连续 事项：5 月以未公司股价回调逾 30%，一是行业层面茅台批价下跌，叠加邻分 � 区域反馈二季度宝席场亲高基教下表现偏浅，行业景气度回落预期转弱。二是 公司层面，市场对公司 Q2 产品结构、库存表现、汾享礼遇推进效果以及全年 业绩等方面有在分块种疑虑，我们进行各方交流，核心观点如下： 分歧一：姬期市场担心 Q2 产品结构下移影响利润增速，实际 Q2 更多是感神 � 产品故重加强，对利润单影响有限。公司回应全年目标种结构紧略不变，二季 度回款比例约 20%保持正常，结构上青花系列 Q1 节奏偏快增速约 35%+，其 中青 20 增达约 40%，二季度略放线。 玻汾则因一季度进度浸于全年，二季度 节奏加快，但腹部产品尤其是老白汾二季度增速更为明显（主奏系公司 6 月对 展郭产品提价发力所致 )，评估对盈利水平影向不大。此外考虑二季度沃季扎 实做市场下载投略高手往年，上半年利润增速有望高手收入约 5%-10%。 分歧二：中期市场担心分享礼遇渠道改革推进席合过程中会影响渠道利润称 � 积极性，公司已在积极沟通并努力装升效单，预计渠道利润仿可单持，从公司 过往经验 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 山西汾酒（600809）跟踪分析报告 强推（维持） 回应分歧，景气延续 目标价：350 元 当前价：181.00 元 ❖ 事项：5 月以来公司股价回调逾 30%，一是行业层面茅台批价下跌，叠加部分 区域反馈二季度宴席场景高基数下表现偏淡，行业景气度回落预期转弱。二是 公司层面，市场对公司 Q2 产品结构、库存表现、汾享礼遇推进效果以及全年 业绩等方面存在分歧和疑虑，我们进行各方交流，核心观点如下： ❖ 分歧一：短期市场担心 Q2 产品结构下移影响利润增速，实际 Q2 更多是腰部 产品放量加强，对利润率影响有限。公司回应全年目标和结构策略不变，二季 度回款比例约 20%保持正常，结构上青花系列 Q1 节奏偏快增速约 35%+，其 中青 20 增速约 40%，二季度略放缓。玻汾则因一季度进度慢于全年，二季度 节奏加快，但腰部产品尤其是老白汾二季度增速更为明显（主要系公司 6 月对 腰部产品提价发力所致），评估对盈利水平影响不大。此外考虑二季度淡季扎 实做市场下费投略高于往年，上半年利润增速有望高于收入约 5%-10%。 ❖ 分歧二：中期市场担心汾享礼遇渠道改革推进磨合过程中会影响渠道利润和 ...

证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：临 2024-017 联系地址：山西省汾阳市杏花村镇 因工作调整原因，王普向先生不再担任公司证券事务代表职务， 公司及公司董事会对王普向先生任职证券事务代表期间为公司所做 出的贡献表示衷心感谢。 公司于2024年7月15日召开第八届董事会第五十四次会议，审议 通过了《关于聘任公司证券事务代表的议案》，同意聘任张弛先生 （简历附后）担任公司证券事务代表，协助董事会秘书开展工作。 张弛先生已取得上海证券交易所颁发的董事会秘书任职资格证 书，具备担任证券事务代表所需的专业知识、工作经验和相关素养， 其任职资格符合《中华人民共和国公司法》《上海证券交易所股票 上市规则》等相关法律法规和规范性文件的规定。截至本公告披露 日，张弛先生未持有公司股份，与公司或控股股东及实际控制人不 存在关联关系，与公司其他董事、监事、高级管理人员不存在关联 关系，未受过中国证券监督管理委员会及其他相关部门的处罚或上 海证券交易所的惩戒。 证券事务代表联系方式如下： 电话：0358-7329809 电子邮箱：zhang.c@fenjiu.com.cn 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 关于变 ...

证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：2024-016 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 2023 年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利 4.37 元 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2024/7/4 | － | 2024/7/5 | 2024/7/5 | 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司 2024 年 5 月 17 日的 2023 年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 3. 分配方案： 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本1,219,964,222股为基数，每股派发现金红利4.37 元（含税） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu with a target price of 325.50 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [2][11]. Core Views - The growth tools for Shanxi Fenjiu are deemed sufficient, and the company's growth logic remains intact. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are 11.04 CNY, 13.70 CNY, and 16.72 CNY respectively [7][11]. - The second quarter of 2024 is identified as a turning point for the industry, with Shanxi Fenjiu maintaining a good balance between growth and stability. The company is expected to continue enhancing its cost management and channel strategies [12][13]. - The report highlights a transformation in the growth logic of Shanxi Fenjiu, shifting from external to internal growth drivers, which enhances its counter-cyclical capabilities [13][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report reiterates the "Accumulate" rating and target price of 325.50 CNY, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential [11]. 2. Industry Turning Point and Growth Tools - The second quarter of 2024 is seen as a critical period for the industry, with Shanxi Fenjiu's sales performance aligning with expectations. The company is focusing on maintaining a healthy inventory and enhancing its product structure [12]. 3. Transformation of Growth Logic - The report notes that Shanxi Fenjiu has undergone a fundamental change in its operational and marketing strategies, transitioning to a market-oriented approach that strengthens its competitive and incentive structures [13]. 4. Market Share Logic - The report suggests that Shanxi Fenjiu is well-positioned to reshape the industry landscape, leveraging its brand and product advantages to enhance market share and influence in the high-end segment [14].

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call appears to be related to a company or industry involved in a deep report analysis, possibly in the financial or investment sector, but specific details are not provided in the content [1] Core Points and Arguments - The call welcomes participants and indicates a focus on a deep report analysis, suggesting a detailed examination of growth dynamics and potential conflicts within the industry [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The mention of "elite status" implies that the company or industry is currently performing well or is in a strong position, although specific metrics or data are not provided [1]