酒行业丨市场观察 本周看点： -中 国葡萄酒，没有品牌的巨人； -酒类直播迎来新时代； -"苏超"这么火，酒业要跟上。 概要 ： 中国葡萄酒产业虽产量居全球前列，但品牌认知度低、高端市场占有率少。主要问题 包括产业链碎片化、品牌塑造不足、品质信任危机及外部竞争压力。破局需产区整合、培育龙 头企业，实施品牌战略革命，精准定位市场，融入文化元素，同时加强科研投入与消费者教 育，实现从量到质的转变，推动品牌崛起与文化复兴。 2.酒类直播迎来新时代："直播间品牌"转向线下，中小直播间陆续退场？ 关键词 ： 直播电商,酒类销售,线上渠道,流量转化,头部效应 管理趋严，中小直播间生存压力增大，"旺季更旺、淡季更淡"的现象加剧了腰部以下直播间的 退出趋势。 3."苏超"这么火，酒业要跟上 关键词 ： 足球联赛,地域文化,消费场景,白酒市场,啤酒市场 行业环境 1.吴勇：中国葡萄酒，没有品牌的巨人 关键词 ： 葡萄酒产业,品牌建设,产区整合,文化价值,品质提升 概要 ： 酒类直播电商已进入成熟期，头部主播效应显著，市场格局趋于固化。非头部直播间 因流量转化率低而逐渐退出，而头部达播虽占据主要市场份额，但也面临增长瓶颈。平台扶 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Insights - The beverage sector has shown resilience, particularly in the liquor segment, following media reports that have alleviated concerns over strict alcohol consumption regulations. This has led to a positive market sentiment and a recovery in valuations for liquor companies [3][14] - The beer sector has also performed well, with a 1.91% increase, driven by improved sentiment and a recovery in dining revenues. The overall restaurant income in May increased by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer spending [4][15] - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the health products, soft drinks, and snack sectors, highlighting their growth potential due to new consumption trends and low base effects [5][16] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline of 0.12% during the week of June 16-20, with specific segments like beer (+1.91%) and liquor (+1.10%) showing positive performance, while snacks (-6.21%) and health products (-4.48%) faced declines [2][22] Liquor Insights - The liquor segment, particularly the white liquor category, has seen a recovery due to recent government clarifications on alcohol consumption regulations. The current PE-TTM for the white liquor index stands at 18X, which is considered low compared to historical averages [3][14] - Key recommendations include Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [6][21] Beer Insights - The beer sector's performance is linked to the recovery in dining and consumer spending, with notable increases in companies like Yanjing (+6.6%) and Zhujiang (+4.4%) [4][15] - The report anticipates that ongoing consumption promotion policies will further boost beer sales in the medium to long term [4][15] Consumer Goods Insights - The consumer goods sector is advised to focus on "cost reduction and efficiency improvement" and "market share enhancement" as key investment themes. The report highlights the potential in health products, snacks, and soft drinks due to their growth trajectories [5][16] - Specific companies to watch include Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulou, and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to benefit from upcoming seasonal demand and cost advantages [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Continued recommendations for soft drinks and low-alcohol products due to their favorable market conditions and growth potential [6][20] - In the liquor sector, strong alpha companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are highlighted for their ability to capitalize on market concentration benefits [6][21]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on June 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.15% to 3365.07 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.16% to 9988.66 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.33% to 2003.26 points [1] - The trading volume for the Shanghai market was 264.3 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market recorded 406.3 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The shipping sector experienced significant gains, with stocks like Ningbo Shipping and Lianyungang hitting the daily limit [1] - Oil and gas stocks also performed well, with Shandong Molong achieving a seven-day limit-up streak [1] - The banking sector rebounded, with major banks like ICBC and Agricultural Bank of China reaching historical highs [1] - Conversely, the liquor sector lagged, with stocks such as Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu showing notable declines [1][2] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities predicts a potential upward trend in the A-share market by the second half of 2025, driven by supply-side reforms and capital market reforms [3] - Guojin Securities highlights the increasing capital expenditure in nuclear fusion and emphasizes the importance of marine high-end equipment manufacturing [3] - Zheshang Securities anticipates continued market fluctuations, suggesting that the current index structure remains solid, and recommends maintaining positions in large financial stocks [3] Corporate Developments - Alibaba announced the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into its China e-commerce business group, maintaining their management structure while aligning with centralized goals [4] - BYD responded to rumors regarding solid-state batteries being used in its Seal model, clarifying that such information is inaccurate and that official announcements regarding solid-state battery applications are expected around 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [27] Core Views - The central government has clarified standards for dining, which is expected to lead to a recovery in the liquor sector. This standard is anticipated to guide the development of consumption norms and boost the valuation of the liquor sector. Key recommendations include high-end liquor such as Kweichow Moutai, next-tier liquor like Shanxi Fenjiu, and real estate liquor brands such as Jianshiyuan and Gujinggongjiu [6][4] - The food index has shown a cumulative decline of 3.43%, with a recommendation to focus on investment opportunities arising from demand differentiation in consumer goods. The market is expected to gradually recover, with new demands and products emerging, particularly in the snack and beverage sectors, recommending brands like Three Squirrels and Dongpeng Beverage [6][4] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index has a cumulative increase of 1.08%, with top performers including Huangtai Liquor (+11.41%), Jinzhongzi Liquor (+9.78%), and Yingjia Gongjiu (+7.52%). The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the liquor sector due to new consumption standards [6][7] - Recommendations include focusing on high-end liquor, next-tier liquor, and real estate liquor brands [6][4] Food Industry - The food index has a cumulative decline of 3.43%, with top performers being ST Jiajia (+6.93%), Huifa Food (+4.43%), and Ziyan Food (+1.49%). The report suggests that the consumer market shows resilience, with a gradual recovery expected [6][4] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in the snack and beverage sectors, with recommendations for Three Squirrels, Dongpeng Beverage, and Yanjinpuzi [6][4] Key Company Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, with Kweichow Moutai recommended at a PE of 20.8 for 2024, and Shanxi Fenjiu at 18.3 [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [4] Core Views - The sentiment in the liquor and restaurant chain markets has improved, with a focus on the performance of beer and beverages during the peak season [11] - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol in China reached 278.7 billion yuan from January to May, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, with May's sales at 48.2 billion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year [2] - The white liquor index rose by 1.1% this week, indicating a marginal recovery in market sentiment [13] - The report suggests three investment themes: leading companies with proven risk resilience, those showing digital transformation benefits, and companies with market share growth potential [13] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a slight decline of 0.02% this week but outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.49 percentage points [19] - The top gainers in the food and beverage sector included Morning Light Biological (13.43%), Huangtai Liquor (11.41%), and Jinzhongzi Liquor (9.78%) [19] 1.1 White Liquor - The white liquor production from January to May totaled 1.597 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-on-year, with May's production at 291,000 kiloliters, a 13.4% decline [2] - The report highlights the importance of adjusting policy execution methods to support normal consumption demands [2] - Key recommendations include leading brands like Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiangsu Yanghe [2][13] 1.2 Consumer Goods - The sentiment in the consumer goods sector has slightly improved, with a focus on the supply-demand dynamics [14] - The beer sector is expected to perform well during the peak season, with recommendations for stocks like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer [14] - The snack sector is experiencing differentiation, with a focus on companies that are innovating in products and channels [15] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks significant events and market movements, including the performance of various companies and their stock prices [19][68] - The report notes that the high-end liquor prices continue to face downward pressure, with Moutai's price at 1,935 yuan per bottle, down 55 yuan from the previous week [12][30] 2.1 Market Review - The food and beverage sector's performance is closely monitored, with specific attention to the fluctuations in stock prices and market sentiment [19][20] 2.4 Important Events - The report lists significant corporate events, including stock pledges and management changes within key companies in the sector [68][69]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Eastroc Beverage, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Nongfu Spring, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine, and Wuliangye Yibin [30]. Core Insights - The ongoing impact of China's anti-extravagance regulations is significantly affecting spirits consumption, particularly in the sub-premium segment, with estimated sell-through declines of approximately 30% to 50% in June [7][8]. - The intensity of future policy implementation will be crucial, especially during peak seasons like Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which could lead to further disruptions in retail demand if regulations remain strict [8]. - Brand performance is diverging, with Moutai expected to withstand regulatory pressures better due to its brand power and stable distributor confidence, while Wuliangye and Laojiao are facing more significant challenges [10][16]. Summary by Category Spirits - June sales experienced a short-term demand shock due to heightened scrutiny on civil servants' consumption, with sub-premium spirits being the most affected [7]. - The expert estimates that government and commercial-related banquets account for 30%-40% of sub-premium spirits' demand, while Moutai relies more on gifting, which constitutes over 50% of its demand [7]. - Prepayment for Moutai and Wuliangye is tracking at 56% and 50% of full-year targets, respectively, while Laojiao and Fen Wine are lagging at around 45% and 50% [9]. Brand Performance - Moutai is expected to maintain its growth target due to its strong brand power and stable distributor confidence, with a critical wholesale price level around Rmb1,800 for profitability [10]. - Wuliangye has seen a decline in wholesale prices, returning to levels last seen in 4Q24, leading to hesitance among distributors regarding prepayments [16]. - Laojiao faces greater pressure with a projected 50% decline in sell-through in Hunan Province, indicating a challenging environment for the brand [16]. Beverages - Nongfu Spring's sell-through for Oriental Leaf and bottled water has shown growth of approximately 33% year-on-year, while Tea Pie has seen a decline [16]. - Eastroc is projected to achieve 20%-25% sales growth in 2025, indicating strong retail demand for its products [16].

Market Performance - The market experienced a slight adjustment last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.66% [2] - The China Securities Index reported a decline of 1.11%, closing at 1592.73 points [2] Strong Performers - Several component stocks of the brand index rose against the market trend, with Zhongji Xuchuang increasing by 11.46%, Shanxi Fenjiu by 7.21%, and Luzhou Laojiao by 4.60% [2] - Since the beginning of 2025, Xintai has surged by 53.67%, followed by Anji Technology at 29.34% and Marumi Bio at 26.84% [2] Index Adjustments - The brand index underwent quarterly adjustments, with Songcheng Performing Arts and Guangyuyuan being added, while China Software and Bear Electric were removed from the index [3] Market Outlook - Short-term market fluctuations are expected due to overseas risk preferences, with a likelihood of continued structural rotation [4] - Mid-term perspectives suggest that as domestic policies improve and the economy recovers, the overall upward trend of the A-share market is likely to increase [4] - The current equity risk premium (ERP) is at a historically high level, and the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index is above 3%, indicating strong long-term investment potential in equity assets [4]

2025 年 06 月 23 日 开源晨会 0623 ——晨会纪要 | 沪深300 | 及创业板指数近1年走势 | | | 吴梦迪（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | | 创业板指 | | wumengdi@kysec.cn | | 64% | | | | 证书编号：S0790521070001 | | 48% | | | | 观点精粹 | | 32% | | | | 总量视角 | | 16% | | | | | | 0% | | | | 【宏观经济】科技与民生类支出提速——5 月财政数据点评-20250620 | | -16% | | | | 【策略】箱体震荡的突破契机，及当下的配置思路——投资策略周报-20250621 | | 2024-06 | 2024-10 | 2025-02 | | 【金融工程】稀土产业板块的资金行为监测——金融工程定期-20250620 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | | | | | | | | 行业公司 | | 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | | | | 【商贸零售】618 电商高质增长，强品牌龙头及新锐功效品牌突围—— ...

Group 1 - China's economic data for May indicates a shift in growth momentum from exports and investments to consumption, with retail sales growth reaching a high point since 2024, exceeding market expectations [2] - The A-share market has shown a significant reduction in trading volume, with the major indices collectively declining, reflecting a lack of incremental capital [2][3] - Defensive sectors, particularly liquor and banking, have demonstrated stronger performance amidst market adjustments, with notable gains in companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Shanxi Fenjiu [2] Group 2 - The recent adjustment of the "Everyday Brand 100 Index" included nine new companies, with Gujing Gongjiu showing a remarkable weekly increase of 4.4% [4] - Gujing Gongjiu's chairman emphasized the need to address long-term industry challenges while maintaining sustainable growth, aiming to keep its market share in Anhui above 60% [4] - Vipshop, another new entrant in the index, has seen a slight increase in stock price, focusing on providing high-quality products and services to enhance shareholder returns [5] Group 3 - The liquor industry is currently in a valuation recovery phase, presenting short-term investment opportunities as defensive sectors regain investor interest [6] - The liquor ETF has experienced a decline of 9.42% in 2025, underperforming the broader market, yet its share count has increased by 15.07 million, indicating continued investor interest [7] - The index tracked by the liquor ETF focuses on companies involved in the production of various alcoholic beverages, with major stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye accounting for over 50% of the index weight [7]

食品饮料 2025 年 06 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《5 月社零增速稳步上行，内需动力进 一步修复—行业点评报告》-2025.6.17 《威士忌新品上市，看好魔芋品类发 展—行业周报》-2025.6.15 《新消费驱动板块上行，关注业绩可 持续兑现品种—行业周报》-2025.6.8 "禁酒令"纠偏催化反弹，重视板块底部机会 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 核心观点：白酒重视底部机会，5 月社零数据稳步上行 6 月 16 日-6 月 20 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 0.1%，一级子行业排名第 4，跑赢沪 深 300 约 0.3pct，子行业中啤酒（+1.9%）、白酒（+1.1%）、其他食品（+0.0%） 表现相对领先。5 月禁酒令出台后，政务系统整治违规吃喝执 ...