Investment Rating - The report indicates that the white liquor sector has entered a strategic allocation period, with a focus on high-quality companies for long-term investment [3][8]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor industry experienced significant declines in revenue and profit in Q3 2025, with major companies like Wuliangye reporting substantial drops. Public fund holdings in the food and beverage sector have returned to levels seen in Q1 2017 [3][8]. - Despite the current challenges, the report suggests that it is possible to predict a bottoming out of the market in the near future, allowing for long-term pricing of quality enterprises [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for patience regarding fundamental improvements, as the performance of individual stocks may vary during this adjustment phase [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, the white liquor industry achieved revenue of 310.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.48%, and a net profit of 122.69 billion yuan, down 6.63% [4][14]. - In Q3 2025, the industry reported revenue of 76.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 28.21 billion yuan, down 22.0% [17][19]. - The net profit margin for the industry in Q3 2025 was 38.0%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to decreased gross margins and increased tax rates [24][27]. 2. Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the absolute PE level for the white liquor sector was 18.7x, below the historical average of 27.6x since 2011. The relative PE multiple compared to the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.14x, also below the historical average of 2.01x [5][11]. - The report indicates that the current valuations of leading companies reflect market expectations of mid-term demand pressure, suggesting potential for recovery if demand improves [5][11]. 3. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also keeping an eye on companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [3][8].

国盛证券在其研报中指出，供给端看，酒企持续推进去库稳价等供给优化动作，且Q3报表普遍加速出 清、风险持续释放。需求端看，白酒批价和动销持续磨底。估值端看，白酒板块估值、市场预期、机构 持仓已处在历史低位，同时茅五泸洋等龙头酒企已在分红上树立标杆，优质龙头估值低位叠加股息率支 撑，白酒板块绝对收益布局正当时。 从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1429.00元/股，下跌0.42%；五粮液收盘价达117.16元/股，下跌1.53%； 山西汾酒收盘价达188.90元/股，下跌2.18%；泸州老窖收盘价133.10元/股，下跌1.44%；洋河股份收盘 价达70.56元/股，下跌0.48%。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）11月4日尾盘，三大指数集体下跌，沪指3960.19点下跌0.41%。白酒 板块2283.52点收盘下跌0.53%，其中20只白酒股下跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.19% to 3969.05 points, and the liquor sector, particularly baijiu stocks, also faced downward pressure, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [1] Industry Summary - The baijiu sector saw a collective decline, with 19 out of 20 baijiu stocks falling, reflecting broader market trends [1] - Major baijiu brands reported the following closing prices: Kweichow Moutai at 1426.92 CNY per share (down 0.56%), Wuliangye at 117.68 CNY (down 1.09%), Shanxi Fenjiu at 189.34 CNY (down 1.95%), Luzhou Laojiao at 134.10 CNY (down 0.70%), and Yanghe at 71.08 CNY (up 0.25%) [1] Company Insights - According to Guosheng Securities, since Q3, there has been a sequential improvement in baijiu sales, with Kweichow Moutai stabilizing in July, warming up in August, and improving in September [1] - The demand from weddings and family banquets has positively impacted the sales of mid-range priced baijiu, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [1] - Major liquor companies are focusing on price stability and market maintenance, leveraging product and channel innovations to cater to new scenarios and demands, suggesting a strategic shift in response to industry pressures [1] - The most significant sales pressure for the baijiu sector appears to have passed, with expectations for further stabilization and recovery in demand moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that while improvements in the fundamentals of the liquor industry are still awaited, the third-quarter performance shows a significant decline in revenue for major liquor companies, with high-end liquor prices continuing to drop, leading the market to seek a balance between volume and price [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, the liquor industry achieved operating revenue of 310.28 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.48%, and a net profit of 122.69 billion, down 6.63% [2] - In Q3 2025, the liquor industry reported operating revenue of 76.31 billion, a year-on-year decline of 18.4%, and a net profit of 28.21 billion, down 22.0% [2] - The net profit margin for the liquor industry in the first three quarters of 2025 was 40.6%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased tax rates and declining gross margins [2] - The operating cash flow net amount for the liquor industry in Q3 2025 was 21.39 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 54.2% [2] Group 2: Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the absolute PE level for the liquor sector was 18.7x, below the average level of 27.6x from 2011 to present [4] - The relative PE multiple of the liquor sector compared to the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.14x, also below the historical average of 2.01x [4] - The current valuations of the sector and leading companies partially reflect market expectations of mid-term demand pressure, with potential for improvement if demand recovers [4] Group 3: Recommended Stocks - Key recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao (000568), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Kweichow Moutai (600519), and Wuliangye (000858) [5] - Other stocks to watch include Yingjia Gongjiu (603198), Jinhui Liquor (603919), Gujing Gongjiu (000596), Jianshiyuan (603369), and Yanghe Brewery (002304) [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu's performance demonstrates significant resilience compared to peers during the industry's deep adjustment cycle, with a diversified product matrix and enhanced brand influence [1] Financial Performance - Gross margin increased by 0.3 percentage points to 74.63% in Q3 2025 - Sales and management expense ratios decreased by 0.4 percentage points and 1 percentage point to 10.17% and 3.86% respectively - Net profit margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 32.66%, primarily due to an increase in business taxes and additional charges [1] Sales and Liabilities - Sales revenue decreased by 3% to 8.343 billion yuan - Contract liabilities increased by 5% to 5.781 billion yuan [1] Competitive Position - The company's differentiated competitive advantage is becoming more pronounced as the national strategy accelerates - The internal control mechanism is gradually improving, contributing to strong operational resilience [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry, particularly for high-quality companies, indicating a strategic allocation period has begun [2][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant decline in performance, with major companies like Wuliangye reporting substantial drops in revenue and net profit. The public fund holdings in the food and beverage sector have also decreased to levels not seen since Q1 2017 [2][7]. - Despite the current challenges, the report suggests that long-term investors can start pricing high-quality companies as the market is expected to reach a predictable bottom in the near future [2][7]. - Key recommendations include focusing on premium liquor brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also keeping an eye on brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Analysis - The liquor industry reported a total revenue of CNY 310.28 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.48%, with net profit falling by 6.63% to CNY 122.69 billion. The revenue decline is more pronounced in lower-tier brands compared to national brands [3][16]. - In Q3 2025, the industry generated CNY 76.31 billion in revenue, down 18.4% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 22.0% to CNY 28.21 billion. National brands outperformed lower-tier brands in both revenue and profit growth [3][19]. - The net profit margin for the liquor industry in Q3 2025 was 38.0%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to decreased gross margins and increased tax rates [3][20]. 2. Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the absolute PE level for the liquor sector stands at 18.7x, below the historical average of 27.6x since 2011. The relative PE ratio compared to the Shanghai Composite Index is 1.14x, also below the historical average of 2.01x [4][10]. - The report indicates that the current valuations of leading companies reflect market expectations of mid-term demand pressure. If demand improves, the industry could return to a phase of simultaneous valuation and performance recovery [4][10]. 3. Company Performance and Profitability Forecast - The report highlights that the profitability of the liquor industry is under pressure, with significant declines in net profit margins across various brands. The national brands have seen a smaller decline compared to lower-tier brands [3][22]. - The report provides a detailed forecast of operational goals and profitability estimates for key liquor companies, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments in response to market conditions [4][10].

贵州省商务厅就《关于进一步推动"卖酒"向"卖生活方式"转变的指导意见（征求意见稿）》公开征求意 见。其中提到，深入实施"白酒+"产业融合行动，大力推动酒旅、酒餐、酒商、酒体融合发展，组织白 酒产品进景区、进交通枢纽、进商场超市，将酒文旅目的地与"支支串飞""小车小团"等旅游产品充分联 动，拓宽产业边界。深入实施"白酒+"产品融合行动，发挥酒咖、酒茶组合优势，拓展跨界消费市场。 世纪证券认为，白酒行业调整期出清提速，静待需求改善信号。2025年三季度白酒行业延续消费弱复苏 下的调整态势，行业出清节奏进一步加快，企业业绩分化加剧。次高端及区域酒企则承压明显，部分区 域酒企因省内消费场景恢复不及预期、库存高企，陷入"以价换量"困境，净利润降幅进一步扩大，反映 出中小酒企在行业调整期缺乏抗风险能力。价格与库存端，三季度白酒全价格带承压。短期市场以左侧 博弈行业困境反转为主，建议聚焦具备强品牌、高渠道掌控力的龙头企业；中长期需紧密跟踪经济复苏 进程、消费场景修复节奏及经销商信心恢复情况，待需求端明确改善信号出现后，白酒行业有望迎来估 值与业绩双修复。 开源证券认为，白酒2025年三季度收入增速较二季度有较大回调，主因在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience, with better performance outside its home province. The revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 32.924 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.405 billion yuan, up 0.48% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s core product, Fenjiu, shows robust performance even during industry downturns, with revenue from Fenjiu reaching 32.171 billion yuan, a 5.54% increase year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw a significant decline of 15.88% [2]. - The company is actively expanding its sales channels, particularly in e-commerce, which has shown promising growth with a 124.93% increase in direct sales [2]. - The company has successfully increased its revenue share from outside its home province, with Q3 2025 revenue from outside the province reaching 6.671 billion yuan, a 31.14% increase year-on-year, while revenue from within the province decreased by 35.15% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 74.6%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. However, the net profit margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 32.7% [3]. - The company’s contract liabilities increased to 5.781 billion yuan, up 300 million yuan year-on-year, indicating a growing commitment to future sales [3]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are -1.2%, 6.0%, and 9.6%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are projected at -1.0%, 6.2%, and 9.6% [4]. Valuation and Market Data - The six-month target price for the company is set at 237.10 yuan, with the current stock price at 193.10 yuan [6]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 235.575 billion yuan, with a total share count of 1.220 billion shares [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 9.92 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.9 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing a severe downturn, characterized by plummeting sales, rising inventory, and a significant shift in consumer behavior, leading to widespread closures of traditional liquor stores and a crisis among liquor companies [1][3][5]. Industry Overview - The number of liquor stores in China is projected to decrease by 17% to 22% in 2025, with some regions experiencing closure rates exceeding 30% [3]. - The average inventory turnover days for the liquor industry reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase from the previous year, indicating a severe liquidity issue for distributors [3]. - Price inversion is prevalent across all price segments, with 32% of high-end liquor priced below cost, leading to minimal profit margins for retailers [3]. Sales and Revenue Trends - In June 2025, sales dropped by 70% due to new alcohol restrictions, with traditional stores struggling to maintain revenue during peak seasons [5]. - Over 90% of liquor companies reported revenue declines in the third quarter of 2025, with notable drops in companies like Shede and Yingjia, which saw revenue decreases of 17% and 18.09% respectively [5][7]. - The overall revenue of 20 listed liquor companies in A-shares fell by 0.86% in the first half of 2025, marking a significant shift in the industry [5]. Consumer Behavior Changes - The proportion of drinkers in China has decreased from 38% in 2016 to 29% in 2024, with a notable decline in the core consumer group of men aged 30-60 [8]. - Younger consumers are increasingly turning to alternatives like beer and cocktails, with white liquor's market share among young people dropping to 31.8% [8][10]. - Traditional consumption scenarios, such as government and business events, have drastically reduced, leading to a shift towards more casual drinking occasions [8][10]. Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is experiencing a crisis of overcapacity, with production declining from a peak of 13.58 million kiloliters in 2016 to 4.145 million kiloliters in 2024 [7]. - The stock market for liquor has also suffered, with the China Securities White Liquor Index halving over four years, and significant drops in stock prices for major companies like Yanghe and Jiu Gui [7]. Strategic Responses - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's reclassification of liquor as a historical classic industry aims to provide policy support, but the industry faces challenges from high inventory and changing consumer preferences [10][11]. - There is a debate within the industry about whether to adapt to younger consumers by introducing lower-alcohol products or to maintain traditional practices and cultural heritage [11].

近日，A股20家白酒上市公司三季报全部出炉，行业业绩分化进一步加剧。数据显示，前三季度，仅贵州茅台、山西汾酒两家企业实现营收与净利双增长，其余18家企业均出现营收与利润双下滑 值得关注的是， 2025年Q3，山西汾酒以89.6亿元的单季营收超越五粮液，在单季营收排名中升至第二；净利润方面，五粮液单季净利20.19亿元，落后于泸州老窖（30.99亿元）和山西汾酒 不容忽视的是，在消费复苏放缓的背景下，白酒行业经营性现金流普遍收缩，部分区域酒企现金流亮起"红灯"。2025年前三季度，口子窖、水井坊、老白干酒等经营现金流均为负值，反映出其 头部酒企业绩承压 行业上游同样承压。截至2025年9月末，头部酒企的库存规模依然高企，贵州茅台、洋河股份、五粮液、泸州老窖和山西汾酒五家企业的库存均超百亿元。 受营收下滑、库存高企等多方面挤压，2025年前三季度，白酒行业经营性现金流普遍收缩，折射出行业整体复苏仍面临较大压力。 从现金流表现来看，白酒企业呈现出明显的两极分化态势。头部酒企虽保持正现金流但增速明显放缓。截至三季度末，五粮液为282.47亿元，比上年同期减少5.19%；泸州老窖与山西汾酒分别 相比之下，区域酒企现金流 ...