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纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/18 SP主力合约收盘价： 5474.00 | 日期 | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/13 | 2025/11/12 | 2025/11/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5474.00 | 5480.00 | 5534.00 | 5482.00 | 5484.00 | | 折美元价 | 674.24 | 674.24 | 681.44 | 672.93 | 672.85 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.10949% | -0.97579% | 0.94856% | -0.03647% | 0.29261% | | 山东银星基差 | 76 | 70 | 31 | 58 | 56 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 76 | 70 | 66 | 83 | 81 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 ...

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Group 1 - The 19th National Futures (Options) Live Trading Competition and the 12th Global Derivatives Live Trading Competition Awards Ceremony successfully concluded, being referred to as the "Oscar" of the futures industry, highlighting the achievements of outstanding traders and receiving high praise from attendees [1] - This year's awards ceremony attracted more executives from futures companies compared to previous years, allowing for better understanding of market demands through face-to-face interactions and observation of excellent strategies [1] - Futures companies are shifting from scale expansion to value creation, as evidenced by the collection of personalized hedging solution needs from corporate clients during the event [1] Group 2 - The competition and awards ceremony facilitated a dual empowerment between futures institutions and market participants, with companies discovering quality trading talent and participants optimizing trading strategies [2] - The exhibition area outside the main venue became a highlight, with numerous futures companies and financial technology service providers attracting significant attention, indicating a strong interest in risk hedging using derivatives [2] - Financial technology companies showcased innovations such as real-time market data monitoring screens, indicating a trend towards the integration of technology in the futures trading ecosystem [2] Group 3 - The awards ceremony reflects the evolution of the live trading competition from a simple trading platform to a core entity connecting market demands, talent cultivation, and industry ecosystem development [3] - The theme "Embracing All Rivers" signifies the importance of gathering wisdom and strength from various sectors to enhance the role of the Chinese futures market on the global stage [3]

ગુજ 美国主持 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਉਨ੍ਹੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 意 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1790.0 | 0.43% | -285.2 | 6881 | | 14520 | -1922 | | | EC2602 | | 1605.0 | -1.65% | -100.2 | 20006 | | 38043 | 7-59 | | | EC2604 | | 1157.7 | -1.08% | 347.1 | 2180 | | 15618 | 197 | | | EC2606 | | 1377.9 | -0.20% | 126.9 | 130 | | 1624 | 1 | | | EC2608 | | 1486.7 | 0.24% | 18.1 | 65 | | 1196 | 1 | | 期货 | EC2610 | | 1103.5 | -0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of thermal coal remains stable, with normal production in most mines. Recently, prices in some production areas have weakened, and the premium rate of auctions has narrowed, leading to a slight decline in market sentiment. The upward trend of port prices has slowed down, and the sentiment of traders to hold prices has weakened. - Policy disturbances still exist, and the supply side needs continuous monitoring. Although the overall inventory of thermal coal is relatively safe, the changes in power plant and port inventories need to be closely watched. - In the short term, due to intensified downstream gaming, thermal coal faces certain callback pressure. It is expected that the subsequent shipping profit will expand, and after the callback, there will still be support for the overall price. The upside potential mainly depends on the actual downstream demand, and continuous tracking of daily consumption and inventory changes is required. [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: In October 2025, China imported 41.737 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 9.75% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.27%. From January to October 2025, the total coal imports were 387.623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. The weekly output of main production area mines was 27.38 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%. [9] - **Demand**: Terminal coal consumption in thermal power remains at a medium level, and as the heating season approaches, power plants are expected to release some restocking space. In the non - power sector, the chemical industry has rigid restocking demand, and coal consumption is at a medium - high level. However, some downstream users are somewhat resistant to high - priced coal. Alternative energy power generation performs well, accounting for about 35% of the total power generation. [9] - **Inventory**: The total social inventory is 204.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of about 0.9%, slightly lower than the same period last year. Power plant inventory is 132.39 million tons (a week - on - week increase of about 0.86%), showing a slight inventory build - up, while port inventory is 57.03 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of about 0.34%). [9] - **Policy**: The National Energy Administration has issued a series of policies, including promoting stable and increased production in the coal industry, strengthening the overall planning and management of coal mine areas, emphasizing the reduction of non - power coal consumption, and organizing inspections of coal mine production. [9] 3.2 Price and Profit - **Production Area Prices**: In Inner Mongolia, the prices of Q5500, Q5000, and Q4500 decreased by 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.0% week - on - week respectively; in Shaanxi, the prices of Q5500, Q5000, and Q4500 decreased by 0.8%, 0.9%, and 1.0% week - on - week respectively. The prices of Q6200 and Q6000 in Shaanxi remained unchanged. [14] - **Port Prices**: The upward trend of port prices has slowed down, with actual transaction prices ranging from 830 to 850 yuan/ton. The prices of different calorific values at Qinhuangdao Port and Guangzhou Port have shown varying degrees of week - on - week increases. [17][19] - **International Prices**: The international thermal coal spot prices in regions such as NEWC, ARA, and RB have shown different week - on - week changes, with NEWC increasing by 2.43% week - on - week, while ARA and RB remained unchanged. [28] - **Shipping Profits**: The shipping profits in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi vary, with Inner Mongolia having a shipping loss of 50 yuan/ton for CV5500, Shanxi breaking even, and Shaanxi having a loss of 38 yuan/ton. [48] 3.3 Other Fundamental Data - **Supply - Side Data**: The cumulative production of raw coal in different regions from 2021 - 2025 is presented, as well as the monthly production data of different regions. The production and capacity utilization rates of coal mines in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi are also shown. [53][54][56] - **Import Data**: In October 2025, China's coal imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The import data from January to September 2025 shows different trends for different countries such as Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and Mongolia. [62][69] - **Demand - Side Data**: The electricity consumption data of different industries and the power generation data of different power sources (thermal, hydro, nuclear, wind, solar) are provided, including monthly and cumulative data, as well as data for different time intervals such as ten - day periods. The coal consumption data of different industries such as building materials, metallurgy, and chemicals are also presented. [76][86][91][126] - **Transportation and Inventory Data**: The transportation data of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, comprehensive transportation indices, and logistics data of northern ports are shown. The inventory data of different ports and the overall social, power plant, and production area inventories are also provided. [158][162][167][169]

Core Insights - The 19th National Futures (Options) Live Trading Competition has successfully concluded, with Yong'an Futures actively responding to customer participation requests and providing professional services to support customer growth in practical trading scenarios [1] Group 1: Customer Engagement and Insights - The live trading competition serves as a platform for customers to showcase their trading abilities and as a window for the company to gain insights into customer needs, enhancing recognition of the company's professional capabilities [2] Group 2: Service Efficiency Improvement - Yong'an Futures utilized its self-developed "Timely Rain" system during the competition to enhance customer registration efficiency, allowing for automatic assignment of follow-up tasks to corresponding account managers and real-time tracking of follow-up progress [3] Group 3: Industry Development and Future Outlook - The live trading competition plays a significant role in investor education, talent discovery, and promoting a healthy market environment, helping investors understand leverage risks and validate personal trading strategies [4] - The company anticipates an accelerated expansion of the product system towards "strategic adaptation," with potential new products in green low-carbon and high-end manufacturing sectors, as well as the introduction of foreign exchange futures [4] - The market's focus will increasingly shift towards serving the real economy, with applications of futures tools extending beyond simple hedging to comprehensive scenarios like inventory management and cross-border trade risk hedging [4] - The industry is expected to move towards high-quality development, with a shift in competition logic from low-level competition to a focus on service professionalism, risk management capabilities, and customer value creation [5] - Yong'an Futures is deepening its customer-centric reforms, optimizing internal service systems, and enhancing business development vitality while launching new industry service divisions and online financial initiatives [5]

Core Insights - The 2025 Global Futures Traders Conference and the 19th National Futures (Options) Live Trading Competition were held in Xi'an, showcasing industry leaders discussing investment opportunities in commodities and future technological developments [1][10]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event featured a gathering of industry elites, including award-winning traders, institutional investors, and representatives from futures companies, engaging in deep discussions on trading philosophies and market opportunities [1][10]. - The competition has been a platform for traders for 19 years, highlighting the evolution of trading strategies and the increasing maturity of traders' methodologies [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Zhang Yi, head of the research institute at Yong'an Futures, indicated that the commodity sector may experience differentiation in 2026, with a stable macroeconomic environment and a mild recovery in domestic economic growth [3]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to impact supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the polysilicon market, where demand growth is projected to decline by 10% to 0% year-on-year in 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The macroeconomic atmosphere is generally warming, but a comprehensive bull market in commodities is not anticipated until global economic recovery is evident [4]. - Specific commodities such as lithium carbonate and aluminum are expected to see significant demand growth, while the supply of PX and PTA is improving, making them suitable for long positions [4]. Group 4: Trader Insights - Successful traders emphasize the importance of risk management, self-awareness, and the development of a personalized trading system [6][7][8]. - The experiences shared by award-winning traders highlight the necessity of maintaining discipline and a strong mindset in trading, with a focus on learning from both successes and failures [6][7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of financial education and talent cultivation in supporting the development of a strong financial nation, particularly through the organization of the National College Student Futures Investment Electronic Competition [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The 7th National College Student Futures Investment Electronic Competition was held on November 15, 2025, organized by Hebei Provincial Education Department and Hebei University of Economics and Business, with participation from 116 universities across 18 provinces, resulting in 1,141 teams and 5,706 students competing [1][3]. - The competition has grown significantly over six editions, becoming a representative platform for financial practice education in Chinese universities [1]. Group 2: Educational Objectives - The competition aims to cultivate high-quality application-oriented talents by enhancing participants' practical skills in financial investment, trading strategies, innovation, and teamwork through competitive learning [3]. - It serves as a crucial platform for deepening the integration of industry and education, promoting reforms in "new liberal arts" and "new finance" education [3]. Group 3: Competition Format and Experience - The event was conducted in a "offline + online" format, supported by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and utilizing simulated trading accounts provided by Everbright Futures [4]. - Participants engaged in real-time trading scenarios, enhancing their investment decision-making and risk management skills through practical experience [4]. Group 4: Post-Event Initiatives - Following the competition, a forum on "integration of industry, academia, and research" is planned to discuss industry trends and talent cultivation paths, helping students understand the futures market better [6]. - Everbright Futures aims to continue improving the competition structure and content, positioning it as a training ground for innovative financial talent and a bridge for school-enterprise cooperation [6].

Group 1 - The 19th National Futures (Options) Live Trading Competition has been held for nineteen years, serving as a "public arena" for futures traders, showcasing their judgment and execution skills despite various risks this year [1][3] - Successful traders in the competition share two common traits: they possess a trading method that has been tested by the market and have a respectful attitude towards trading, which allows them to navigate the market more steadily and further [3] Group 2 - Everbright Futures has developed a unique research style characterized by the "valuation + driving" research system and launched the "Source Point Intelligent Research" brand, integrating various research tools and platforms [3] - The company has introduced AI tools, such as "Anzai Smart Answer" and "Anzai Market Watch," aimed at making it easier for clients to analyze and monitor the market [3]