Market Overview - On June 27, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.34% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.47% [1] - A total of 52 stocks appeared on the daily trading list, with the highest net inflow of funds into Dawi Technology (600589.SH) amounting to 264 million yuan [1][4] Stock Performance - Dawi Technology saw a closing price increase of 6.61% with a turnover rate of 28.45%, and it accounted for 7.84% of the total trading volume [1][2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Zhongfu Industrial (600595.SH), which experienced a net sell-off of 154 million yuan, representing 15.54% of its total trading volume, despite a closing price increase of 10.05% [4][6] Institutional Activity - Among the 27 stocks on the trading list, institutions were net buyers of 17 stocks and net sellers of 10 stocks, with a total net selling amount of 1.274 billion yuan [6][12] - The stock with the highest institutional net buying was Heertai (002402.SZ), which closed up by 10% and had a turnover rate of 13.07% [7] Northbound Capital - On June 27, northbound capital participated in 14 stocks, with a total net inflow of 915 million yuan [10] - The stock with the highest net inflow from northbound capital was Xiaoshangpin City (600415.SH), with a net purchase of 806 million yuan, accounting for 16.12% of its total trading volume [10][12] Summary of Key Stocks - The stocks that saw both institutional and northbound capital net buying included Hengbao Co., Maiwei Bio, Heertai, and Jinlongyu [12][14] - Conversely, stocks like Zhuyegroup and Zhongfu Industrial were net sold by both institutions and northbound capital [12][14]

Group 1 - The metal lead concept increased by 2.55%, ranking third in concept sector gains, with 28 stocks rising, including Zhuhai Group and Jinhui Co., which hit the daily limit [1] - Leading gainers in the metal lead sector included Xiyu Co. (5.95%), Tibet Zhufeng (4.86%), and Western Mining (4.60%) [1] - The top decliners were Chifeng Gold (-1.78%), Shanjin International (-0.94%), and Hunan Gold (-0.90%) [1] Group 2 - The metal lead concept saw a net inflow of 0.21 billion yuan, with 14 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 30 million yuan in net inflows [2] - Xiyu Co. led the net inflow with 1.83 billion yuan, followed by ST Shengtun (597.97 million yuan) and Zhuhai Group (493.65 million yuan) [2] - The net inflow ratios for Jinhui Co. (37.62%), Xiyu Co. (15.00%), and ST Shengtun (11.19%) were the highest in the sector [3] Group 3 - The trading performance of stocks in the metal lead sector showed significant variations, with Jinhui Co. and Xiyu Co. having notable turnover rates of 0.73% and 4.85% respectively [3] - Other stocks like Western Mining and Chifeng Gold experienced declines in net inflow, indicating potential selling pressure [5] - The overall market sentiment in the metal lead sector appears positive, with several stocks achieving substantial gains amidst mixed performances [1][2]

Group 1 - The metal zinc concept increased by 3.11%, ranking second among concept sectors, with 33 stocks rising, including Zhuhai Group and Jinhui Co., which hit the daily limit [1] - Notable gainers in the zinc sector included New Weiling, Hongda Co., and Xiyu Co., with increases of 8.96%, 7.65%, and 5.95% respectively [1] - The largest net inflow of main funds was seen in Xiyu Co., with a net inflow of 183 million yuan, followed by ST Shengtun, Zhuhai Group, and Jinhui Co. with net inflows of 59.8 million yuan, 49.4 million yuan, and 34.3 million yuan respectively [2][3] Group 2 - The main fund inflow ratios for Jinhui Co., Xiyu Co., and ST Shengtun were 37.62%, 15.00%, and 11.19% respectively [3] - The trading volume and turnover rates for key stocks in the zinc sector showed significant activity, with Xiyu Co. having a turnover rate of 4.85% and a daily increase of 5.95% [3] - Stocks such as ST Shengtun and Zhuhai Group also demonstrated strong performance with daily increases of 4.06% and 10.05% respectively [3]

Group 1 - 株冶集团 (600961) experienced a trading halt today with a daily turnover rate of 6.85% and a transaction amount of 569 million yuan, showing a fluctuation of 8.78% [2] - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a daily price deviation of 10.75%, with institutional investors net selling 5.82 million yuan and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect net selling 619,400 yuan [2] - The top five trading departments accounted for a total transaction amount of 201 million yuan, with a net buying amount of 12.08 million yuan [2] Group 2 - As of June 26, the margin trading balance for the stock was 218 million yuan, with a financing balance of 218 million yuan and a securities lending balance of 238,800 yuan [3] - Over the past five days, the financing balance increased by 14.99 million yuan, representing a growth of 7.39%, while the securities lending balance decreased by 28,140 yuan, a decline of 54.09% [3] - The company's Q1 report indicated a revenue of 4.803 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.50%, and a net profit of 277 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.07% [3]

Market Overview - As of 13:59 today, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3424.00 points, below the five-day moving average, with a decline of 0.71% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares today is 12836.21 billion [1] Stocks Breaking the Five-Day Moving Average - A total of 319 A-shares have broken above the five-day moving average today [1] - The stocks with the largest deviation rates include: - Maiwei Biological with a deviation rate of 12.67%, closing at 28.62 yuan, up 20.00% [2] - Zhuyou Group with a deviation rate of 7.86%, closing at 11.28 yuan, up 10.05% [2] - Zhongfu Industrial with a deviation rate of 7.33%, closing at 4.48 yuan, up 9.80% [2] - Other notable stocks with smaller deviation rates include: - Dongxing Medical, Haipu Rui, and Laobaixing, which have just crossed the five-day moving average [1] Detailed Stock Performance - The following stocks have notable performance metrics: - Jiayou International: 9.97% increase, 10.81 yuan latest price, 7.22% deviation [2] - Jinjing Pharmaceutical: 10.39% increase, 17.00 yuan latest price, 6.70% deviation [2] - Xin Henghui: 12.94% increase, 53.07 yuan latest price, 6.17% deviation [2] - Additional stocks with significant trading activity include: - Hasa Lian: 9.97% increase, 14.45 yuan latest price, 5.89% deviation [2] - Huayang New Materials: 9.97% increase, 6.84 yuan latest price, 5.85% deviation [2]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector showed strong performance, with electrical alloy hitting the 20% limit up, and stocks like Northern Copper, Zhongfu Industry, and Jinchengxin all rising over 5% [1] - Major companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Shenhuo Co. also experienced significant stock price increases [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will peak at approximately $10,050 per ton by August 2025, driven by tightening supply outside the U.S. [2] Group 2 - The global copper market is facing a structural imbalance in supply and demand, with processing fees for copper concentrate declining and some smelters reducing output due to cost pressures [3] - The demand for copper is being supported by the transition to renewable energy and digitalization, with a surge in data center construction expected to significantly increase copper consumption [3] - Supply-side tensions are unlikely to ease in the short term, with traditional copper-producing countries like Chile and Peru facing rising production costs and slower-than-expected new capacity additions [3] Group 3 - There has been a noticeable shift in trade flows, with commodity traders rerouting copper originally destined for Asia to the U.S., leading to supply shortages in non-U.S. regions [3] - The London Metal Exchange's inventory has significantly decreased, with available stocks dropping to historical lows [3] - The recycled copper market is also under pressure, as price fluctuations affect the collection of scrap copper, leading to a temporary contraction in recycled copper supply [3] Group 4 - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Jiangxi Copper are well-positioned to benefit from rising copper prices due to their advantages in capacity release and cost control [3] - Companies in niche sectors, such as electrical alloys, are also experiencing growth opportunities [3] - The technical outlook shows that Shanghai copper futures have stabilized above 80,000 yuan, reflecting market concerns over short-term supply tightness [3]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of the US debt crisis and tariff shocks, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in the gold sector [12]. - Steel prices are experiencing a significant decline, with the overall price index dropping by 1.90% [37]. - The supply and prices of new energy metals are both on the decline, indicating potential challenges in this sector [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The US debt crisis and tariff shocks are leading to a focus on gold investment opportunities, with expectations of continued high gold prices due to market conditions [12]. - Steel consumption has slightly increased, but overall prices are down, with rebar prices falling to 3217 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.94% [13][37]. 2. Steel Industry - Steel consumption for rebar reached 2.49 million tons, a slight increase of 0.63% week-on-week [17]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 933 thousand tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar steel shows divergence, with long process profitability slightly increasing while short process profitability decreased [32]. 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in April 2025 was 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.87% [41]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 61,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.17% [50]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper smelting fees (TC) have slightly increased, with the current fee at -43.50 USD/thousand tons, up 1.69% week-on-week [61]. - The overall production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang decreasing by 3.79% [15].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring investment opportunities in strategic metals such as rare earths, especially following significant price increases in overseas markets due to China's export controls [8][13]. - In the steel sector, there has been a notable increase in rebar consumption and a slight rise in overall steel prices, indicating a positive trend in demand [14][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints: Focus on Strategic Metals - The report highlights the strategic importance of rare earth metals, particularly in light of recent U.S.-China trade discussions that aim to reduce tariffs, which could enhance global economic recovery [8][13]. - Following China's export restrictions on heavy rare earths, overseas prices have surged, with dysprosium and terbium prices in Europe increasing nearly threefold [8][13]. 2. Steel Sector: Price Trends - Rebar consumption has risen significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.6 million tons, marking a 21.69% increase week-on-week [14][18]. - The overall steel price index has seen a slight increase of 0.92%, with hot-rolled coil prices rising to 3,320 CNY/ton, a 1.40% increase, and cold-rolled prices at 3,767 CNY/ton, a 1.31% increase [14][38]. 3. New Energy Metals: Supply and Price Declines - Lithium production in April 2025 was reported at 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but with a slight month-on-month decline [15][42]. - Nickel production has seen a significant year-on-year decrease of 14.18%, while cobalt prices have shown a downward trend [15][44]. 4. Industrial Metals: Copper and Aluminum - Copper smelting fees have slightly increased, with the LME aluminum price settling at 2,474 USD/ton, reflecting a minor week-on-week rise of 0.20% [16]. - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have decreased significantly, leading to increased profitability for producers [16][28]. 5. Precious Metals: Market Adjustments - Gold prices have experienced a notable decline of 3.72% week-on-week, attributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets following positive developments in U.S.-China relations [17].