Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - A V-shaped reversal in coal prices is anticipated, with winter prices expected to reach 800 CNY/ton. The long-term contracts are supporting spot prices, and policy-driven sentiment is leading to significant price increases. The long-term contract prices for September are 674, 613, and 551 CNY/ton for 5500, 5000, and 4500 kcal respectively, with the CCI index showing slight variations [6][26] - The coal market is expected to see a balance between supply and demand gradually, with prices steadily rising. The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry and suggests focusing on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in coking coal and coke sectors [6][26] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 3.59% as of September 19, 2025, while the index fell by 0.44%, resulting in a 4.03 percentage point outperformance. A total of 24 stocks in the sector rose, with Yongtai Energy showing the highest increase of 13.42% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.22 million tons for the week of September 12-18, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 5.3%. The average daily production was 7.18 million tons, also up 4.8% week-on-week and 4.4% year-on-year [2][24] Price Trends - As of September 19, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 676 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The import price index for thermal coal was 812 CNY/ton, up 4.5% week-on-week. Prices at various ports and production areas also showed increases [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610 CNY/ton, up 3.9% week-on-week, while the futures settlement price for coking coal was 1216 CNY/ton, reflecting a 6.9% increase [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total coal inventory monitored was 25.54 million tons as of September 18, 2025, a decrease of 1% week-on-week and 6% year-on-year. The cumulative sales volume of key monitored enterprises was 180.46 million tons, down 2.4% year-on-year [2][24] - The report indicates that the demand from the power and chemical industries has varied, with coal consumption in the power sector down 2.9% year-on-year, while the chemical sector saw an increase of 16% [2][24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the thermal coal sector such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, as well as coking coal companies like Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal. It also highlights companies in the coke sector that are expected to see profit improvements [6][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have rebounded above 700 RMB, with a current price of 704 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 24 RMB/ton (3.53%) [3][4] - The demand for non-electric coal is expected to be a highlight in the upcoming months, particularly during the "golden September and silver October" period [4] - The report predicts that the current rebound in coal prices is at a turning point, with potential further increases expected as the market stabilizes [4][5] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The prices of thermal coal and coking coal are at a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to recover to long-term contract prices, currently above the second target price of around 700 RMB [4][13] - Future expectations indicate that thermal coal prices could reach a third target price of approximately 750 RMB, with a potential peak at around 860 RMB [4][13] Market Performance - The coal index increased by 3.51% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.96 percentage points [8][25] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.59, and the PB ratio is 1.28, ranking low among all A-share industries [25][31] Coal Price Indicators - As of September 19, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 704 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 24 RMB [20] - The price of coking coal at the Jingtang port has risen to 1670 RMB/ton, reflecting a significant increase from earlier months [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for investment in coal stocks, focusing on both cyclical recovery and stable dividends, with specific stocks recommended for investment [5][14] - Key stocks identified for investment include: - Cyclical logic: Jinko Coal Industry, Yanzhou Coal Mining - Dividend logic: China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy - Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Holdings, Electric Power Investment Energy - Growth logic: Xinjie Energy, Guanghui Energy [5][14][15]

Group 1 - The civil explosives sector saw a rise of 1.70%, ranking second among concept sectors, with 15 stocks increasing in value, led by Guangdong Hongda, Xuefeng Technology, and Yahua Group, which rose by 7.76%, 7.36%, and 5.24% respectively [1] - The top three stocks in terms of net inflow of main funds were Yahua Group with a net inflow of 117 million yuan, followed by Huaibei Mining and Gaozheng Minexplosion with net inflows of 61.72 million yuan and 53.08 million yuan respectively [1] - The civil explosives sector experienced a net inflow of 148 million yuan from main funds today, with 10 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 50 million yuan [1] Group 2 - In terms of fund inflow ratios, Huaibei Mining, Yahua Group, and Huilong Co. had the highest net inflow rates at 11.11%, 9.48%, and 9.25% respectively [2] - The civil explosives sector's fund inflow rankings showed Yahua Group leading with a 5.24% increase and a turnover rate of 8.11%, followed by Huaibei Mining with a 4.62% increase and a turnover rate of 1.66% [2][3] - Other notable stocks included Gaozheng Minexplosion with a 4.74% increase and a turnover rate of 8.27%, and Xuefeng Technology with a 7.36% increase and a turnover rate of 7.28% [2][3]

Group 1 - The coal mining sector increased by 2.02% on September 19, with Huayang Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.3%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [1] - Notable performers in the coal mining sector included: - Biaozhan Service (600348) with a closing price of 7.60, up 7.80% - Lu'an Huaneng (6691099) at 15.00, up 5.63% - Jinko Coal Industry (601001) at 14.30, up 5.54% [1] Group 2 - The coal mining sector experienced a net outflow of 355 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 320 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flows included: - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) with a net inflow of 127 million yuan from institutional investors - Biaozhan Co. (600348) with a net inflow of 106 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - The overall trading volume for the coal mining sector was substantial, with various companies reporting significant transaction amounts [2][3]

Group 1 - Huayang Co. reached the daily limit increase in stock price [1] - Lu'an Environmental Energy rose over 5% [1] - Jin控 Coal Industry, Huaibei Mining, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Coal Energy also experienced stock price increases [1]

Company Overview - Huabei Mining Co., Ltd. is located at 276 Renmin Middle Road, Huaibei City, Anhui Province, established on March 18, 1999, and listed on April 28, 2004. The company's main business includes the sale of civil explosive products and blasting engineering services, coal mining, washing, processing, and sales, as well as the production and sales of coal chemical products [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of September 10, 2025, Huabei Mining reported a revenue of 20.682 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.032 billion yuan, down 64.85% year-on-year [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 13.156 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 7.318 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. Stock Performance - On September 19, Huabei Mining's stock price increased by 2.06%, reaching 12.37 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 175 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.53%. The total market capitalization is 33.316 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has decreased by 7.13%, with a 2.83% increase over the last five trading days, a 6.22% decrease over the last 20 days, and an 8.80% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 10, 2025, the number of Huabei Mining shareholders is 45,500, an increase of 10.48% from the previous period, with an average of 59,149 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 9.49% [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 28.4545 million shares, a decrease of 3.9644 million shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points in September, marking the first rate cut of the year, with expectations for two more cuts by the end of 2025 [1] - The Fed's statement highlighted increased risks to employment, removing previous language about a stable labor market and introducing concerns about slowing job growth [1] - Market reactions indicate a growing confidence in further rate cuts this year, while expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have been pushed back [1] Group 2: Huabei Mining Industry - Huabei Mining is positioned as a low-valued, net asset-deficient coking coal leader, with expected performance improvements from coal, electricity, and chemical production [2] - The company plans to increase coal production capacity, with a total of 17 operational mines in Anhui province and a certified capacity of 35.85 million tons per year by the end of 2024 [2] Group 3: Renewable Energy Subsidies - The renewable energy sector is facing a growing subsidy gap, with companies like Three Gorges Energy and Huadian New Energy having receivables exceeding 40 billion yuan, indicating a high overall subsidy receivable amount [3] - Despite multiple increases in electricity price surcharges, the funds received are still below the subsidy demand, leading to noticeable delays in subsidy payments [3] Group 4: Silicon Bao Technology - Silicon Bao Technology reported a revenue increase of 5.49 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with specific segments like industrial adhesives and hot melt adhesives showing growth [3] - The company is expanding its presence in the hot melt adhesive market through the acquisition of Jiangsu Jiahai, which has contributed positively to its performance [3] - The sales of silicon-carbon negative materials are rapidly increasing, supported by stable operations of production lines and strong customer relationships [3]

天风证券研报指出，淮北矿业是低估值破净焦煤龙头，煤电化投产有望增厚业绩。截至2024年末，公司 拥有生产矿井17对，均位于安徽省，核定产能为3585万吨/年。未来公司煤炭产能增长主要来源于信湖 煤矿复产及陶忽图煤矿投产，其中信湖煤矿（300万吨/年）于2023年11月因出水而被迫停产，目前主 井、副井、风井已实现贯通，矿井供电、通风、人员定位等保障系统已全面恢复，永久性排水系统已建 成，公司在保证安全的前提下加快进度，力争早日恢复生产。由于山西焦煤、平煤股份、潞安环能、恒 源煤电四家公司与淮北矿业一样，同属于焦煤主业上市公司，可以作为淮北矿业可比公司，公司目前估 值处于较低水平，存在估值修复可能。公司煤炭、电力、煤化工等业务均具备成长性，给予公司2025年 25倍PE，对应2025年目标价16.75元，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.75 CNY, based on a 25x PE for 2025 [6][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is considered a low-valued leader in coking coal with potential earnings growth from coal, power, and chemical production [4]. - The coal business is expected to see capacity growth and profit improvement due to the resumption of operations at the Xinhui coal mine and the commissioning of the Taohutu coal mine [4][28]. - The chemical business is diversifying and expanding, with projects in production that are expected to reduce losses [2][3]. - The company is also investing in new power generation projects, which are anticipated to contribute positively to profits [3][4]. Summary by Sections Coal Business - The company has 17 operational mines in Anhui with a total capacity of 35.85 million tons/year, with additional capacity expected from the Xinhui and Taohutu coal mines [1][28]. - The Xinhui coal mine is undergoing recovery efforts after a temporary shutdown, while the Taohutu coal mine is projected to be operational by the end of 2025 [1][38]. - The company primarily sells coking and thermal coal under long-term contracts, which mitigates the impact of market price fluctuations [39][41]. Chemical Business - The chemical segment includes subsidiaries that produce coke, methanol, and ethanol, with capacities of 4.4 million tons/year, 900,000 tons/year, and 600,000 tons/year, respectively [2][3]. - Recent projects in the chemical sector are expected to yield qualified products and improve production loads [2][3]. Other Businesses - The company is constructing a new power plant with a projected annual profit of 196 million CNY upon completion [3]. - The non-coal mining segment is also expanding, with limestone resource reserves expected to increase significantly [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 1.8 billion CNY, 2.65 billion CNY, and 3.8 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5]. - The company’s current valuation metrics indicate a low PE ratio of 5.03 for 2023, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [5][4].

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry in China is experiencing a downturn in both revenue and profit due to a relaxed supply-demand situation and declining coal prices, with expectations for gradual improvement in the second half of 2025 as demand in non-electric sectors is anticipated to rise [1][7]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Decline - Major coal companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and China Coal Energy, reported significant declines in both revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with China Shenhua's revenue at 138.11 billion yuan and net profit at 24.64 billion yuan, down 18.34% and 12.0% year-on-year respectively [2][3]. - Shaanxi Coal and Energy's revenue fell to 77.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.19%, with net profit dropping 31.18% to 7.64 billion yuan, attributed to lower coal prices [2]. - China Coal Energy's revenue was 74.44 billion yuan, down 19.95%, and net profit decreased by 21.28% to 7.71 billion yuan, while Yanzhou Coal Mining's revenue was 59.35 billion yuan, down 17.93%, with net profit down 38.53% to 4.65 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - The coal market in the first half of 2025 showed a pattern of increased production but decreased prices, with national raw coal output rising by 5.4% to 2.4 billion tons, while coal imports fell by 11.1% to 22.2 million tons [4]. - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port dropped by approximately 22.2% to 685 yuan per ton [4]. - The overall revenue for the coal mining and washing industry decreased by 21% to 1.24 trillion yuan, with total profits down 53% to 149.16 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn, several coal companies are optimistic about the second half of 2025, expecting a stabilization in coal prices and a slight recovery in demand due to seasonal factors and macroeconomic policies [7][8]. - Non-electric demand is projected to become a significant support for the market, with expectations for increased demand in the upcoming months, particularly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [8]. - Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining are implementing strategies to increase production and manage costs, anticipating a rise in coal output by over 40 million tons in the latter half of the year [6].