从百米井下的智能巡检机器人，到厂房中紧张有序生产的碱性水电解槽，再到阳光下泛着蓝光的分布式 光伏板，传统能源与绿色技术在潞安化工集团深度交融，绘就一幅向"绿"而生的转型画卷。 今年2月20日，潞安化工集团发布《2025年节能降碳行动方案》，明确综合能源消费量与万元产值能耗 较2020年下降18%的目标，并构建覆盖59家单位的"能耗双控作战图"及三级责任体系。从管理提升、技 术改造和结构调整三大路径制定413项措施，涵盖煤炭开采智能化升级、煤化工产业能效对标、分布式 光伏规模化布局以及氢能装备自主研发等多个方面。 面对行业内外部环境变化带来的挑战，潞安化工集团主动求变，传统产业转型升级、新兴产业培育"齐 头并进"，展现出强大的适应能力和创新能力。同时，将绿色低碳纳入"强煤优化育新"战略全局，通 过"强煤"夯实主业根基、"优化"提升产业链附加值、"育新"布局未来产业，构建"安全、环保、低耗、 高效"的现代化绿色产业体系。 从"能耗双控"到"碳排放双控"，潞安化工集团制定、实施《碳排放管理办法》，细化18项制度，集团碳 管理体系迈入系统化、规范化运作阶段。2025年，集团将在云表系统建立碳排放数据上报平台，完成典 ...

Group 1 - Huaping Leiming Mining Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 30 million yuan [1] - The legal representative of the company is Xu Qinming [1] - The business scope includes manufacturing and sales of ecological environment materials, ecological restoration and protection services, and processing of construction stones [1] Group 2 - Huaping Leiming Mining Co., Ltd. is wholly owned by Huaibei Mining (600985) through indirect shareholding [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Index Adjustment Prediction Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the adjustment of constituent stocks in major indices (CSI 300 and CSI 500) based on the index compilation rules published by the China Securities Index Company[12][13][15] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Reference**: The model uses trading and financial data from May 1 of the previous year to April 30 of the current year for mid-year reviews, and from November 1 of the previous year to October 31 of the current year for year-end reviews[12] - **Adjustment Date**: Adjustments occur on the trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year[12] - **Sample Space**: - Excludes ST, *ST stocks, and delisted securities - Includes STAR Market and ChiNext stocks listed for over a year, or those with daily average market capitalization ranking in the top 30 since listing[12] - **Selection Method**: - For CSI 300: Securities are ranked by daily average trading volume, with the bottom 50% excluded, and then ranked by daily average market capitalization, selecting the top 300[12] - For CSI 500: Excludes CSI 300 constituents and the top 300 by market capitalization, then ranks by trading volume and market capitalization, selecting the top 500[12] - **Buffer Zone Rules**: - CSI 300: New samples ranked in the top 240 are prioritized for inclusion, while existing samples ranked in the top 360 are prioritized for retention[12] - CSI 500: New samples ranked in the top 400 are prioritized for inclusion, while existing samples ranked in the top 600 are prioritized for retention[12] 2. Model Name: Event Return Analysis Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model analyzes the relationship between index sample adjustments and the cumulative excess returns of the adjusted stocks before and after the adjustment date[24] - **Model Construction Process**: - Collects data on all adjustment cycles since 2010 for CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices[24] - Calculates the cumulative excess returns of adjusted stocks relative to the index over a 60-day window before and after the adjustment date[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights that pre-adjustment event returns are more significant for investment strategies, as investors can trade in advance based on predictions or announcements[24] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Index Adjustment Prediction Model - CSI 300 Index: Predicted 7 constituent stock adjustments, with additions primarily in the transportation and defense industries, and removals concentrated in the electrical equipment industry[13][14] - CSI 500 Index: Predicted 49 constituent stock adjustments, with additions mainly in the electronics, electrical equipment, and computer industries, and removals concentrated in the electrical equipment and pharmaceutical industries[15][16][23] 2. Event Return Analysis Model - **CSI 300 Index**: Stocks removed from the index showed negative excess returns before the adjustment date, while no significant conclusions were drawn for added stocks[5][24] - **CSI 500 Index**: Stocks added to the index exhibited positive excess returns before the adjustment date, while removed stocks showed negative excess returns[5][24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huabei Mining (600985.SH) is "Accumulate-A" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by the decline in coal prices and volumes, with a significant drop in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [4][5] - Despite the current challenges, there is potential for growth in both the coal and coal chemical sectors, supported by ongoing projects and the recovery of production capacity [6][7] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of May 12, 2025: 12.08 CNY - Year-to-date high/low: 20.18/11.76 CNY - Circulating A shares/Total shares: 26.93 billion/26.93 billion - Market capitalization: 325.35 billion CNY [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue: 10.567 billion CNY, down 39% YoY - Q1 2025 net profit: 0.692 billion CNY, down 56.5% YoY - Basic earnings per share: 0.26 CNY, down 59.38% YoY - Cash flow from operating activities: 0.44 billion CNY, down 72.87% YoY [4][5] Production and Sales - Q1 2025 coal production: 4.308 million tons, down 17.73% YoY - Q1 2025 coal sales: 2.972 million tons, down 26.18% YoY - Average coal price: 937.77 CNY/ton, down 20.29% YoY - Gross profit per ton of coal: 417.90 CNY/ton, down 28.41% YoY [5] Future Outlook - Expected EPS for 2025-2027: 1.52, 1.89, 1.93 CNY, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 7.9, 6.3, and 6.2 times [7] - The company is focusing on integrated operations in coal, coke, and chemicals, which is expected to stabilize performance [7]

事件描述 公司发布 2025 年一季度报告：报告期内公司实现营业收入 105.67 亿元， 同比-39.00%，归母净利润 6.92 亿元，同比-56.50%，扣非后归母净利润 6.74 亿元，同比-56.96%。经营活动产生的现金流量净额 4.40 亿元，同比-72.87%； 基本每股收益为 0.26 元，同比-59.38%；加权平均 ROE 为 1.62%，同比减少 2.54 个百分点。 2025 年 5 月 12 日 公司研究/公司快报 | 市场数据：2025 年 月 | 5 | 12 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | | | 12.08 | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | | | 20.18/11.76 | | 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 | | | 26.93/26.93 | | 股）： | | | | | 流通 股市值（亿元）： A | | | 325.35 | | 总市值（亿元）： | | | 325.35 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | 基础数据：2025 年 3 月 31 日 | 基本每股收益(元)： | 0.26 | | --- ...

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a rating of "Synchronize with the Market - A" [1] Core Viewpoints - External demand expectations dominate fluctuations, with a focus on improving demand during the peak summer season [1] - The coal production recovery post-holiday has led to increased supply, while electricity coal demand enters a low season, compounded by tariff disputes affecting external demand expectations [8][81] - The recent monetary policy easing is expected to support the macroeconomic environment, with anticipated continued recovery in coal prices due to the upcoming peak summer demand [8][81] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - **Thermal Coal**: Post-holiday inventory has risen, and port coal prices remain weak. As of May 9, the spot reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 643 CNY/ton, a weekly change of -2.13% [3][23] - **Metallurgical Coal**: Monetary policy easing has led to increased demand entering the traditional peak season. As of May 9, the price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1320 CNY/ton, a weekly change of -4.35% [4][35] - **Coking Steel Industry Chain**: Downstream operations have improved, stabilizing coking coal prices. As of May 9, the average price for first-grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1530 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [5][55] - **Coal Transportation**: Weak coal prices have led to a decline in transportation demand, with the coastal coal transportation price index at 640.35 points, a weekly change of -8.06% [6][65] - **Coal-related Futures**: Tariff disputes dominate expectations, with futures prices for coking coal and coke showing fluctuations [8][70] 2. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector has rebounded alongside the broader market but has not outperformed major indices. The CITIC Coal Index closed at 3191.92 points, with a five-day change of +0.97% [7][72] 3. Industry News Summary - A comprehensive financial policy has been implemented to stabilize the market, with the People's Bank of China emphasizing a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery [76][78] - Global thermal coal prices have seen an increase, with a reported rise of 8.8% over eight trading days [78] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in coal production in Shanxi Province, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [79] 4. Important Announcements from Listed Companies - Announcements from companies such as Anyuan Coal Industry and Meijin Energy regarding management changes and stock pledges have been noted [80] 5. Next Week's Views and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong performance support, particularly those with low non-coal business ratios such as Xinjie Energy and Zhongmei Energy [81]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of coal allocation in the current market environment, highlighting a basket of financial policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations [1][2] - The coal sector is viewed as entering a "golden era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rebound due to favorable macroeconomic policies and capital market support [2][10] Coal Market Overview - As of May 9, 2025, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 630 CNY/ton, a decrease of 20 CNY/ton or 3.08% from the previous week [1][13] - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions was 81.1%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points [1][13] - In April 2025, China imported 37.825 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 16.41% [1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The daily coal consumption of coastal power plants reached 1.734 million tons, an increase of 235,000 tons week-on-week [1][9] - The inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim increased to 33.051 million tons, up 201,800 tons or 6.5% [1][9] - The operating rates for methanol and urea production were 84.1% and 87.35%, respectively, indicating a stable demand for coal in chemical production [1][9] Investment Logic - The report outlines a robust dividend investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that they remain a preferred choice for institutional investors due to their stable returns and low risk associated with state-owned enterprises [2][10] - The cyclical elasticity of coal stocks is highlighted, with expectations for price recovery as supply-demand fundamentals improve post-policy implementation [2][10] Key Indicators - The coal sector's PE ratio was reported at 11.6, and the PB ratio was 1.16, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [5][7] - The report identifies key coal stocks that are expected to benefit from the current market conditions, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2][10] Focused Stock Recommendations - The report suggests a selection of coal stocks based on different investment themes: - Dividend logic: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy - Cyclical logic: Pingmei Shenma, Huabei Mining - Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Energy, Electric Power Energy - Growth logic: Guanghui Energy, New Hope Energy [2][10]

Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Recommended" [7][78] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a supply-side constraint, while demand may fluctuate in the short term, leading to price volatility and dynamic rebalancing [7][78] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies as high dividend and cash cow assets, especially in light of recent market changes and government support for major coal enterprises [7][77] - Key companies in the coal sector are characterized by high profitability, strong cash flow, high barriers to entry, substantial dividends, and a high safety margin [7][78] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices at ports have decreased by 22 CNY/ton year-on-year, with port inventory increasing [14][15] - Production in major coal-producing areas has increased, with capacity utilization in the Sanxi region rising by 0.69 percentage points [14][21] - April coal imports totaled 37.825 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [14][28] - Demand remains weak due to high inventory levels at power plants, with daily consumption showing mixed trends [14][31] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal production has stabilized, with capacity utilization rising by 0.45 percentage points to 89.0% [39][76] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu port increased by 281 vehicles week-on-week [39][44] - Coking coal supply and demand are marginally loose, with inventories at production enterprises rising by 14.84 million tons [39][76] 3. Coke - The production rate of coking plants has increased, with capacity utilization rising by 0.29 percentage points to 75.83% [53][76] - Despite a slight increase in coke inventory, it remains at a low level with no significant pressure [53][66] - The average profit per ton of coke has risen to approximately 1 CNY, an increase of 7 CNY week-on-week [57][76] 4. Anthracite - Anthracite prices have remained stable, with supply exceeding demand and no new purchasing needs from power users [71][72] 5. Key Companies and Investment Focus - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, with a focus on companies with strong cash flow and high dividend yields [7][78] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring iron and steel production, as well as the consumption of steel and coking coal [39][76]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [12][13] - The coal price is expected to remain weak in May due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but there is a bottom support for prices, and a gradual recovery is anticipated as the peak season approaches [3][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal supply shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply and demand but a medium to long-term gap still present [12][13] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of May 10, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 635 CNY/ton, down 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The international thermal coal price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 69.8 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1380 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 96.4%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points week-on-week [47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 33.80 thousand tons/day, a rise of 12.17% week-on-week [12] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has decreased by 12.40 thousand tons/day, a decline of 6.67% week-on-week [12] Inventory Situation - As of May 9, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port has increased to 753 thousand tons, up 8.0% week-on-week [5] - The inventory of coking coal at production sites has risen to 390.43 thousand tons, an increase of 8.9% week-on-week [5] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown a 1.47% increase this week, underperforming the broader market [15] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for stable operations and solid performance [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huabei Mining is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 10.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 39% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 690 million yuan, down 56.5% year-on-year and down 3.4% quarter-on-quarter. The report also notes a decrease in coal production and sales volume, with a focus on cost reduction to mitigate the impact of falling coal prices [4][5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 690 million yuan, down 56.5% year-on-year and down 3.4% quarter-on-quarter. The adjusted net profit after excluding non-recurring items was 670 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.9% [4][5] Production and Sales - The company's coal production and sales volume in Q1 2025 were 430.8 million tons and 297.2 million tons, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 17.7% and 26.2%, and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 11.8% and 14.8% [4][5] - The average selling price of coal in Q1 2025 was 937.8 yuan per ton, down 20.3% year-on-year and down 10.8% quarter-on-quarter. The cost per ton of coal was 519.9 yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year and down 3.4% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a gross profit of 417.9 yuan per ton, down 28.4% year-on-year and down 18.7% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the company's growth potential in coal mining and coal chemical projects, with ongoing construction of significant projects such as the 800,000 tons/year Tohutu Mine and the 300,000 tons/year Xinh Lake Coal Mine. The company is also advancing coal chemical projects with a focus on deep utilization of by-products [6] - The company is currently in a state of undervaluation, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.76 as of May 6, 2025. The report mentions an increase in the minimum dividend payout ratio from 30% to 35%, which could support valuation recovery [6]