Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.35 billion to 2.50 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.38% to 75.93% [5][6] - The decline in coal prices has improved cost conditions, while the price spread of olefins continues to expand, leading to an increase in product profit margins [6] - The company is entering a phase of rapid capacity release, with significant year-on-year growth in olefin production and sales [6] - The establishment of a third base in Xinjiang is expected to open up long-term growth opportunities for the company [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Baofeng Energy's stock has shown a relative decline compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute declines of -13.42% over the past month [4] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a significant increase in revenue, with expected operating income of 53.07 billion yuan in 2025, up 60.9% year-on-year [8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 14.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 125.7% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 1.95 yuan in 2025 [8] Production and Capacity - The first series of the Inner Mongolia coal-to-olefins project has reached full production capacity, contributing to the increase in olefin output [6] - The company plans to complete the ramp-up of three production lines in the first half of 2025, which will further enhance production capacity [6] Strategic Developments - The Xinjiang coal-to-olefins project is progressing, with a planned capacity of 4 million tons per year, marking the company's third major production base [6] - Ongoing projects in Ningdong and Inner Mongolia are also in the planning stages, indicating robust long-term growth potential [6]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 宝丰能源(600989.SH) 2025 年 04 月 10 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：基础化工/化学原料 当前价格(元)：15.48 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 宝丰能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -13.42 | -10.74 | -11.17 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -6.90 | -5.45 | -8.71 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：价差修复 产能释放，看好公司长期成长！》， 2025.3.12 2.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：进入产能 高速释放阶段！》，2024.12.26 3.《宝丰能源(600989 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月10日 宝丰能源（600989.SH） 一季度归母净利同环比提升，内蒙古烯烃逐步放量 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 |  | 基础化工·化学原料 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 余双雨 | 021-60375485 | yushuangyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523120001 | 事项： 事件：宝丰能源发布 2025 年一季度业绩预增公告。宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"） 预计 2025 年一季度实现归母净利润 23.50 亿元至 25.00 亿元，与上年同期相比增加 9.29 亿元到 10.79 亿 元，同比增长 65.38%到 75.93%。业绩预增的主要原因系内蒙古 300 万吨/年烯烃项目投入试生产，烯烃产 品产销量显著增加；气化原料煤、动力煤价格回落，烯烃产品利润率 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baofeng Energy is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][15][21] Core Views - Baofeng Energy is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.35 billion to 2.50 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.38% to 75.93% [2][3] - The primary driver for this profit increase is the gradual ramp-up of the Inner Mongolia 3 million tons/year olefin project, which has significantly boosted olefin product output and sales [2][3] - The decline in the prices of gasification raw coal and thermal coal has improved the profit margins of olefin products [2][10] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of 12.206 billion, 12.413 billion, and 13.267 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66, 1.69, and 1.81 yuan [15][19] Production Capacity Expansion - The olefin production capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million tons to 5.2 million tons per year, with ongoing projects in Ningdong Phase IV and Xinjiang [8][14] Cost Advantages - The average cost of coal-based olefins is projected to be 6,556 yuan/ton, while oil-based olefins are at 8,027 yuan/ton, giving coal-based olefins a cost advantage of approximately 1,471 yuan/ton [10][19]

Financial Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 2.35 billion and 2.50 billion CNY for Q1 2025, an increase of 929 million to 1.079 billion CNY compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.38% to 75.93%[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period last year was 1.421 billion CNY, with a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 1.482 billion CNY[4] - The basic earnings per share for the previous year was 0.19 CNY per share[4] Factors Influencing Profit - The significant increase in profit is primarily due to the trial production of the 3 million tons/year olefin project in Inner Mongolia, leading to a substantial increase in olefin product sales volume[5] - The prices of gasification raw coal and thermal coal have decreased year-on-year, resulting in an improved profit margin for olefin products[5] Forecast Validity and Risks - The performance forecast has not been audited by a registered accountant and is based on the company's preliminary calculations[3] - There are no major uncertainties affecting the accuracy of this performance forecast[7] - The forecast data is preliminary and the specific financial data will be disclosed in the official Q1 2025 report[8] - Investors are advised to pay attention to investment risks related to the preliminary nature of the forecast[8] Announcement Details - The announcement was made by the company's board of directors on April 10, 2025[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and others [9]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfur and urea, suggesting continued attention on the crude oil, titanium dioxide, and tire sectors [1][6]. - The impact of U.S. tariff policies has led to a rapid decline in crude oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude prices dropping by 10.63% and 10.93% respectively [6][22]. - The chemical sector is experiencing mixed performance, with some sub-sectors like tires and upstream mining showing strong results, while others are under pressure due to capacity expansions and weak demand [7][21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report discusses the influence of U.S. tariffs on crude oil prices and recommends focusing on undervalued, high-dividend companies like Sinopec and CNOOC [6][22]. - It notes that the chemical product prices are rebounding as downstream demand improves, with significant increases in sulfur (9.17%) and urea (7.53%) [19][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying leading companies in sub-sectors that are likely to see valuation recovery, such as Wanhua Chemical and Longbai Group [8][21]. Price Movements - The report details the price movements of various chemical products, highlighting both increases and decreases in prices across different categories [19][21]. - It notes that while some products like sulfur and urea have seen price increases, others like methyl isocyanate and domestic naphtha have experienced declines [5][19]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating expected EPS growth and PE ratios for 2023 to 2025, with a consistent "Buy" rating across the board [9]. - Companies highlighted include Senqcia, Sinopec, and Yanguang Chemical, all of which are expected to show positive earnings growth in the coming years [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025 due to several factors, including decreasing inventory levels, bottoming out of profits, and institutional holdings reaching a low point [8][30] - The supply-demand tension in phosphate rock is likely to continue, with a potential revaluation of its value, particularly focusing on the capacity expansion of Batian Co., Ltd [4][6] - The impact of the new round of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese chemical enterprises is expected to be limited, as the U.S. still needs to import a significant amount of chemical products from China [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector showed a performance of 0.0% over the last month, 8.4% over the last three months, and 1.2% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index which had performances of -0.7%, 2.3%, and 8.2% respectively [2] Investment Suggestions - Focus on companies with low-cost expansion opportunities, such as Wanhu Chemical, and those in the tire and fertilizer sectors [8] - Highlight the potential for increased demand in phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate batteries, with ongoing projects in fine phosphate chemicals [4][6] - Emphasize high dividend yield opportunities in state-owned enterprises within the chemical sector, including China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [10] Key Company Tracking - Batian Co., Ltd. plans to expand its phosphate rock production capacity from 900,000 tons/year to 2 million tons/year, with additional projects underway [6] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from rising prices in sulfuric acid, acrylic acid, and synthetic ammonia, with a focus on companies like Batian Co., Ltd. and others in the phosphate sector [7][9] Price Trends - As of April 3, 2025, the price of phosphate rock was 1,038 CNY/ton, with slight fluctuations in related fertilizer prices [19] - The Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at 66.06 and 62.32 USD/barrel, respectively, indicating a week-on-week decrease of approximately 9.98% and 9.73% [12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Bromine prices continue to rise, with a 15.12% increase this week, reaching 33,385 RMB/ton, following a 20.83% rise last week, and showing an 85.47% year-on-year increase [3][4] - The refrigerant sector remains strong, with R32 prices at 48,000 RMB/ton, up 5.49% from last week, driven by seasonal demand [4][5] - EVA prices have stabilized and slightly rebounded, with an average market price of 11,443 RMB/ton, reflecting a 5.47% increase since the beginning of the year [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Sub-industry and Product Tracking - Bromine prices have shown a significant increase due to seasonal demand and supply constraints, with a current price of 33,385 RMB/ton [3][4] - Refrigerant prices are on the rise, with R32 at 48,000 RMB/ton and R125 at 45,000 RMB/ton, indicating strong market performance [4][9] - EVA prices have stabilized, with a slight rebound observed, maintaining a market average of 11,443 RMB/ton [4][42] 2. Key Industry Trends - The fluorochemical sector is experiencing a demand surge, particularly in refrigerants, with major price increases noted [5][11] - The low-altitude economy and robotics industry are expected to drive demand for new materials, such as carbon fiber and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene [5][25] - The semiconductor materials market is growing, with China's market size increasing from 52.5 billion RMB to 95.1 billion RMB from 2017 to 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 10% [16][19] 3. Company Announcements and Industry News - Key companies in the bromine market include those involved in the production of flame retardants and pharmaceutical intermediates [3][4] - Companies like Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. are recommended for investment due to their strong performance in the fluorochemical sector [5][11] - The report highlights the importance of domestic semiconductor material manufacturers as the industry moves towards greater localization [18][19]

尊敬的各位投资者各位朋友大家好我是宝峰能源总裁刘远广感谢大家长期以来对宝峰能源的关注和支持2024年是实现十四五规划目标的关键一年也是宝峰能源深化管理改革加速扩容增产推动转型发展的攻坚之年国际局势和国内经济跌宕起伏 经营环境复杂多变面对压力和挑战在公司董事会坚强领导下坚持防控风险改善业绩培育团队总体思路团结带领全体员工负重拼搏承压前行高效统筹安全环保生产经营发展建设各项工作生产经营业绩稳定向好重点项目建设有序推进 主营业务规模快速扩张年度重点工作高效落实公司继续保持稳健发展的良好态势下面我从经营业绩重点工作行业分析发展战略四个方面对公司2024年经营情况做简要介绍一经营业绩主要财务指标随着宁东三期锡铃项目全面投产 同比下降9.1%京西化工板块全年实现收入34亿元同比下降6.6%毛利14亿元同比增长5.6%主要产品销量居西亭产品全年销量245万吨同比增加86万吨增长54.9%其中居以西产品销量114万吨 同比增加30万吨增长36.4%聚丙烯产品销量116万吨同比增加41万吨增长54.7%EVA LDPE产品销量15万吨焦炭产品销量709万吨同比增加11万吨增长1.6%产品及煤炭价格变动情况总体来看 聚锡银产品价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The revocation of Party Yanbao's status as a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference does not affect his role as the actual controller and chairman of Baofeng Energy, nor does it impact the company's normal operations and development [1]. Group 1 - Baofeng Energy's actual controller and chairman, Party Yanbao, was stripped of his National Committee membership on March 26, as approved by the 14th National Committee's chairman meeting [1]. - Despite the revocation, the company maintains that Party Yanbao's responsibilities and the stability of its management team remain unaffected [2]. - Baofeng Energy has established long-term stable strategic partnerships with financial institutions, ensuring no issues with loan withdrawals [2]. Group 2 - The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region government has reiterated its strong support for the high-quality development of the private economy, which Baofeng Energy aims to leverage for contributing to local economic and social development [2]. - The company is positioned to take advantage of the "Stabilizing Economy and Promoting Development" initiative launched by the Ningxia government [2].