煤炭周报 安全生产考核巡查将开启，助力煤价反弹 2025 年 10 月 12 日 ➢ 安全生产考核巡查将开启，助力煤价反弹。据应急管理部微信公众号消息， 按照 2025 年度中央安全生产考核巡查工作安排，11 月份，22 个中央安全生产 考核巡查组将陆续进驻 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和新疆生产建设兵团开展年度 考核巡查。10 月 9 日至 10 月 31 日，国务院安全生产委员会办公室将通过互联 网、电话、信件等 3 种途径，受理群众反映和职工报告问题隐患线索。受理范围 主要包括：涉及安全生产相关的重大问题隐患、安全生产非法违法行为等，同时 受理有关部门和企业一线干部职工反映各级各部门在落实安全生产责任上存在 的问题、加强和改进安全生产工作的建议。考虑到巡查组受理主要范围为安全相 关问题，其进驻或对煤炭超能力生产等安全隐患做出整改，进而导致煤炭供给的 进一步收缩。2025 年 7 月以来，全国原煤产量单月同比降幅均超过 3%，内蒙 古超产核查落地预计后续供给也将减量，11 月巡查组进驻的背景下，预计供给 端收缩的预期进一步加强。 ➢ 11 月需求旺季到来，安全生产考核巡查有望助力煤价上涨。9 月煤价出现 淡 ...

证券研究报告 南热北寒需求旺，煤炭红利避险优选 ——煤炭行业周报（10月第1周） 行业评级：看好 2025年10月12日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截止2025年10月10日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨4.3%，沪深300指数下跌0.51%，跑赢沪深300指数4.81个百分点。全板块整周37只股价上涨，0只下 跌。宝泰隆涨幅最高，整周涨幅为13.54%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2025年10月3日-2025年10月9日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为655万吨，周环比减少13%，年同比减少13.6%。其中，动力煤周日均销量 较上周减少13.1%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少11.5%，无烟煤销量较上周减少3.3%。截至2025年10月9日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为674万吨，周环比减少100%，年同比减少100%；重 点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2536万吨，周环比增加4.4%，年同比减少9%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量19540 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The supply-demand situation is improving, leading to a stable and slightly rising trend in coal prices. The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a strong oscillating trend in late October 2025 [7][8]. - The demand side is supported by higher temperatures leading to increased coal consumption, particularly in coastal and inland provinces. The average daily coal consumption reached 5.486 million tons as of October 9, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 18.82% and a year-on-year increase of 8.29% [7][8]. - On the supply side, there are expectations of tighter supply due to regulatory measures against overproduction and adverse weather conditions affecting coal production and transportation [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 185.34 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 181.40 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 710 yuan per ton as of October 10, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5 yuan per ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.529 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.23% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.42% [8]. 3. Inventory Tracking - The report notes that the Daqin line has begun its autumn maintenance, which will reduce daily transport capacity and may lead to further inventory depletion at ports [8]. 4. Downstream Performance - The steel market is entering a traditional peak season, which is expected to improve the demand for coking coal. The average daily pig iron production has remained above 2.4 million tons [7][8]. 5. Company Performance - Key companies recommended for investment include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, and others, which are expected to benefit from the improving coal price environment [8][12].

Group 1 - The coal mining sector increased by 1.26% on October 10, with Dayou Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1] - Dayou Energy's stock price rose by 9.95% to 4.31, with a trading volume of 504,300 shares and a transaction value of 211 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The coal mining sector saw a net inflow of 16.41 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 10.9 million yuan [2] - Major stocks in the coal mining sector experienced varied fund flows, with China Shenhua receiving a net inflow of 111 million yuan from main funds [3] - Dayou Energy had a significant net inflow of 91.29 million yuan from main funds, despite a net outflow of 43.55 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Core Insights - The Shanxi sector showed strong performance on October 10, with an increase of 1.23%, and nearly 80% of stocks rising, indicating enhanced market confidence and activity [1][2] - Key contributors to this performance were energy stocks, particularly coal and electricity companies like Jinlihua Electric and Jinkong Coal [1] Stock Performance - Kexin Development stood out with a peak increase of 10.04%, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains with a total rise of 15.65% [1] - Jinlihua Electric also performed well, rising 6.73% from the previous trading day, with a cumulative increase of 8.72% over two days [1] - Among the declining stocks, Jinjian Biological, Dongjie Intelligent, Huaxiang Co., Northern Copper, and Keda Automation saw declines exceeding 1%, with Dongjie Intelligent experiencing a cumulative drop of 21.66% [1] Notable Contracts - Dongjie Intelligent recently signed a contract for an intelligent three-dimensional warehouse project with Henan Jiyuan Steel Group, valued at 50 million yuan, raising questions about its potential to reverse the ongoing decline [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply is expected to contract due to the upcoming safety production inspections, which may lead to an increase in coal prices as demand rises in November [2][3]. Group 1: Safety Inspections and Supply Impact - In November, 22 safety inspection teams will enter 31 provinces and regions to conduct annual assessments, focusing on major safety issues and illegal activities in production [2]. - The inspections may lead to rectifications of safety hazards related to overproduction in the coal sector, further tightening coal supply [2][3]. - Since July 2025, the monthly coal output has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, with expectations of further reductions due to the inspections [2]. Group 2: Demand and Price Outlook - The coal price has rebounded during the off-season, stabilizing above 700 yuan/ton by the end of September, primarily due to supply contraction [3]. - As the heating season begins in mid-November, the demand for coal is expected to increase, particularly from non-electric sectors like coal chemical industries, which may support coal prices [3]. - The anticipated supply reduction is expected to end the seasonal price decline early, with projections suggesting coal prices could exceed 900 yuan/ton by year-end [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and rising coal prices, with a focus on companies with high spot market exposure [3]. - Recommended investment targets include: 1. Companies with high spot market elasticity, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy [3]. 2. Stable and growth-oriented companies like Jincheng Anthracite Mining and Huayang Co., Ltd. [3]. 3. Companies with recovery in production, such as Shanxi Coal International [3]. 4. Industry leaders with stable performance, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies based on their performance and market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming safety production assessments are expected to lead to a contraction in coal supply, which may support a rebound in coal prices. Since July 2025, the monthly coal output has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, and the anticipated inspections may further tighten supply [1][2]. - The coal price has shown signs of recovery, stabilizing above 700 RMB/ton by the end of September 2025. The report predicts that by the end of the year, coal prices could exceed 900 RMB/ton due to supply constraints and increased demand from the coal chemical sector [2]. - The report highlights several investment opportunities within the sector, particularly focusing on companies with high spot market exposure and those expected to benefit from supply-demand dynamics [2]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The safety inspections scheduled for November 2025 are likely to impact coal supply negatively, reinforcing expectations of reduced output. This is particularly relevant as the country transitions into the heating season, which typically sees increased demand [1][2]. - The report notes that the coal chemical sector is poised to benefit from the seasonal demand increase, providing additional support for coal prices [2]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies based on their market positioning and expected performance: 1. **High Spot Market Exposure**: Lu'an Huanneng (潞安环能) is highlighted for its significant elasticity in response to price changes. 2. **Stable Growth Companies**: Jin控煤业 (晋控煤业) and Huayang Co., Ltd. (华阳股份) are recommended for their robust performance. 3. **Recovery in Production**: Shanmei International (山煤国际) is noted for its potential production recovery. 4. **Industry Leaders**: China Shenhua (中国神华), Zhongmei Energy (中煤能源), and Shaanxi Coal (陕西煤业) are recognized for their stable earnings [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry in the first half of 2025 (25H1) experienced a significant decline in profits, with total profits amounting to 149.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.9% [1][3] Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In 25H1, the coal industry's total profit was 149.2 billion yuan, down 52.9% year-on-year, with profits for Q1 and Q2 at 80.4 billion yuan and 68.8 billion yuan respectively, reflecting declines of 47.4% and 58.1% [1][3] - The average net profit per ton of coal in 25H1 decreased by 30%, with Q2 net profit for the sector declining by 14% quarter-on-quarter, indicating that Q2 may represent the lowest point for the year [3][4] - The number and proportion of loss-making companies in the coal industry continued to rise, reaching a loss ratio of 56% by June 2025, an increase of 13.6 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Debt Levels - Capital expenditure in the coal industry slowed down in 25H1, but listed companies still saw a 47% year-on-year increase, with total capital expenditure reaching 84 billion yuan [2] - The industry's total debt reached a record high of 4.8 trillion yuan, while the asset-liability ratio remained stable at around 60% [2] Group 3: Cost and Expense Management - The average cost per ton of coal decreased, with a reduction of 19.5% and 4.2% in average costs for 25H1, leading to a significant drop in net profit per ton [3][4] - The average return on equity (ROE) for sample companies in 25H1 was only 1.9%, down from 5.4% in 24H1, indicating increased profitability pressure [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The coal market has shown signs of recovery since July 2025, with significant price increases for major coal companies, suggesting potential for improved performance in the second half of the year [3][4] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that are expected to benefit from the stabilization of coal prices and those with strong performance resilience, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [5]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is expected to face a tight supply-demand situation in 2025, with domestic production limited and imports decreasing, leading to an overall supply reduction of 100-150 million tons [1][6][18]. - The demand for electricity from urban residents and the tertiary industry is expected to grow strongly, despite a potential slowdown in thermal power growth [1][18]. Key Insights and Arguments - Coal prices have risen approximately 30% in 2025, with short-term peaks expected between 720-750 RMB/ton, followed by a potential second dip [1][10]. - The average coal price is projected to stabilize between 650-680 RMB/ton for the year, with a possible increase of 10%-15% in 2026, reaching 700-720 RMB/ton [1][10]. - High dividend-paying thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Jinneng Holding are recommended for long-term investment due to their strong resource backgrounds [1][12][15]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal production in 2024 is estimated at 4.74 billion tons, with imports reaching a record high of 540 million tons, although historically imports have supplemented domestic production, accounting for less than 10% [2]. - The demand side of the coal industry is divided into thermal coal (60% of consumption) and coking coal (20%), with the remaining 20% split between construction materials and chemicals [3]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The coal industry has seen a high capacity utilization rate, with limited potential for new capacity approvals, leading to a weak supply outlook in the medium to long term [4][18]. - The investment logic for coal stocks has shifted from traditional cyclical commodities to a focus on high dividends and stable earnings, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [15][19]. Performance of Key Companies - China Shenhua is expected to report annual earnings between 48 billion to 49 billion RMB, with a dividend yield of approximately 5%, outperforming other sectors [17]. - The acquisition of assets from the National Energy Group by China Shenhua is viewed positively for long-term stock price and performance enhancement, marking a significant step in state-owned enterprise reform [13]. Future Outlook - The coal price cycle is anticipated to continue upward, driven by strong demand from urban residents and the tertiary sector, alongside potential impacts from AI and extreme weather [4][18]. - The coal sector is expected to experience a new historical configuration peak after a second dip in prices, with high dividend stocks remaining attractive [19]. Additional Considerations - The coal industry's investment logic has evolved since 2022, focusing more on dividend stability and less on cyclical price movements [15]. - The overall market sentiment indicates a shift towards high dividend-paying stocks as a preferred investment strategy in the current economic climate [19].

Market Overview - On September 30, the coal mining sector rose by 0.05% compared to the previous trading day, with Panjiang Coal and Electricity leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Panjiang Coal and Electricity (600395) closed at 5.39, up 2.47% with a trading volume of 305,100 shares and a turnover of 163 million yuan [1] - Jiangxi Tungsten Industry Equipment (600397) closed at 6.96, up 1.31% with a trading volume of 260,700 shares and a turnover of 181 million yuan [1] - Huai Bei Mining (600985) closed at 12.33, up 1.07% with a trading volume of 223,000 shares and a turnover of 274 million yuan [1] - China Shenhua Energy (601088) closed at 38.50, up 0.39% with a trading volume of 238,900 shares and a turnover of 916 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The coal mining sector experienced a net outflow of 140 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 115 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 256 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks shows that Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) had a net inflow of 47.94 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 90.76 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - China Shenhua Energy (601088) had a net inflow of 15.19 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 36.79 million yuan from speculative funds [3]