证券之星消息，12月1日煤炭开采板块较上一交易日上涨0.7%，晋控煤业领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3914.01，上涨0.65%。深证成指报收于13146.72，上涨1.25%。煤炭开采板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 14.62 | 2.96% | 22.28万 | | 3.26亿 | | 601666 | 平煤股份 | 8.04 | 2.94% | 27.24万 | | 2.18亿 | | 600348 | 天阳股份 | 7.84 | 2.48% | 76.33万 | | 6.02亿 | | 000571 | 新大洲A | 5.66 | 2.17% | 1 25.02万 | | 1.40亿 | | 669109 | 潞安环能 | 13.30 | 1.99% | 34.84万 | | 4.60亿 | | 002128 | 电投能源 | 26.39 | 1.38% | 13.54万 | | 3.57亿 | | 60 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has successfully crossed the fourth target, and the logic for price stability remains intact. The current dynamics are influenced by supply contraction and a surge in demand due to seasonal heating needs [3][4] - The report indicates that both thermal coal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity. The price recovery process involves several stages, including the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a balance in profitability between coal and power companies [4][13] - The report highlights that the current coal prices are still at historical lows, providing room for a rebound, especially with the onset of the heating season and supply-side policies [5][14] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Positive" [1] Price Trends - As of November 28, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 816 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease from the previous week. The price at Guangzhou Port is 855 CNY/ton, having reached the target of 750 CNY for coal-power profitability [3][4] - Coking coal prices have also seen significant rebounds, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1670 CNY/ton, up from 1230 CNY/ton in July, marking a 48.4% increase [3][4] Investment Logic - The report outlines that the price of thermal coal will follow a recovery process involving the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a profitability balance for coal and power companies, with an ideal target price of around 750 CNY for 2025 [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market dynamics, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential target prices of 1608 CNY to 2064 CNY depending on market conditions [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It identifies four main lines for stock selection: cyclical logic, dividend logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [5][14] - Specific companies recommended include Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for cyclical logic, 中国神华, 中煤能源 for dividend logic, 神火股份, 电投能源 for diversified aluminum elasticity, and 新集能源, 广汇能源 for growth logic [5][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting that the demand during the peak season remains resilient, and coal prices are expected to rise after adjustments [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained due to increased safety and environmental inspections, while demand is bolstered by winter heating needs, leading to an anticipated rebound in coal prices [2][8]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with elastic demand for thermal coal, such as Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., and TBEA, as well as undervalued stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huaibei Mining [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The 2026 National Coal Trading Conference is scheduled for December 3-5 in Rizhao, Shandong [7]. - The Longwanggou Coal Mine's capacity replacement plan has been approved, marking a significant development in coal production capacity [7]. - Shanxi has established 281 green mines, enhancing the province's coal production capabilities [7]. 2. Price Trends of Thermal and Coking Coal - As of November 28, thermal coal prices have decreased slightly, with prices reported at 619, 713, and 816 RMB/ton for different grades [2]. - Coking coal prices have shown stability with minor declines, such as the price for low-sulfur coking coal at 1580 RMB/ton [2][11]. 3. International Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures settled at 63.2 USD/barrel, reflecting a 1.02% increase [14]. 4. Inventory Levels in the Bohai Rim - The average daily coal inflow in the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 2.0511 million tons, while the outflow increased to 1.9854 million tons, indicating a supply-demand adjustment [18]. - The total coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports rose to 26.671 million tons, marking a 2.65% increase [18]. 5. Coastal Shipping Rates - Domestic coastal shipping rates have decreased to 42.62 RMB/ton, a drop of 9.84% [27]. - International shipping rates have seen an increase, with Indonesian coal prices rising to 10.36 USD/ton [27]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating stock prices and market capitalizations, such as China Shenhua at 41.14 RMB with a market cap of 817.4 billion RMB [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and others, indicating a positive outlook for the coal mining sector [9]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price dynamics are primarily driven by "real demand" rather than speculative demand, with expectations of increased consumption as colder weather approaches [2][6]. - The coal market is experiencing a phase of price adjustment due to a lack of significant demand, with coal prices expected to stabilize and potentially rise as winter progresses and consumption increases [2][11]. - The report emphasizes that while coal prices are currently under pressure, the overall upward trend remains intact due to supply constraints and the potential for demand to pick up [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 0.54%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.18 percentage points, ranking 29th among CITIC sectors [1][76]. - As of November 28, 2025, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 824 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7 CNY/ton [35][76]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, leading to price adjustments. The supply remains stable, but demand is not meeting expectations, causing inventory pressures [11][14]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices are declining due to reduced purchasing from downstream sectors, with many coking enterprises pausing purchases to manage existing inventory [40][50]. - **Coke**: The first round of price reductions has begun, with steel mills becoming more cautious in their procurement strategies [56][74]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of coking coal has seen a cumulative decline of 50-130 CNY/ton across various grades, with expectations for further price drops in the short term [50][56]. - The average profit per ton of coke has increased, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for coking enterprises despite the overall market weakness [70][74]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Inventory levels for both thermal and coking coal are rising, with many downstream buyers halting purchases, leading to increased stockpiles at coal mines [45][56]. - The report highlights that the effective supply of domestic coking coal may gradually shrink due to regulatory pressures and limited new capacity [57][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the critical role of coal in ensuring power supply stability during the winter months, particularly in the context of increasing electricity demand driven by data centers [2][5]. - It highlights that the peak electricity demand in the U.S. is expected to increase by 166 GW over the next five years, with data centers being a significant contributor to this growth [2]. - The report suggests that coal-fired power generation will be essential in filling the supply gap during winter electricity shortages, reinforcing its importance as a reliable energy source [5]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Prices - European ARA coal price is at $97.3 per ton, down by $1.44 per ton (-1.46%) from the previous week [1]. - Newcastle coal price is at $111.1 per ton, up by $0.2 per ton (+0.18%) [1]. - IPE South African Richards Bay coal price is at $85.1 per ton, up by $0.2 per ton (+0.18%) [1]. Electricity Demand - The report notes that coal power will play a crucial role in meeting electricity demand, especially during winter when renewable energy sources may be less reliable [5][6]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance potential, such as Yancoal Energy and Jinneng Holding, which are expected to benefit from the increased demand for coal [5][6]. Key Stocks - The report lists several key stocks with "Buy" ratings, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.46 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 9.40 [6]. - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.95 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 14.40 [6]. - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.68 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 9.00 [6]. Market Trends - The report indicates a significant increase in electricity demand, with data centers being a primary driver, and suggests that coal will remain a vital component of the energy mix in the coming years [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation due to a combination of recovering port operations, colder weather, and the need for power plants to replenish their stocks. The demand for coal is anticipated to increase as winter progresses, despite current weak consumption levels [7][8]. - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy which is expected to continue to restrict supply, thereby supporting coal prices. Additionally, external coal supply is projected to decrease due to various factors affecting major exporting countries [7][8]. - The report suggests investment opportunities in the coal sector, particularly in companies with high elasticity to price changes, as the demand is expected to rise during the peak winter season [8]. Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market value of 1,918.464 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,881.057 billion yuan [2]. Key Company Performance - Major companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are highlighted with their respective earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong investment potential [5][6]. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen fluctuations, with the price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal at 821 yuan/ton as of November 28, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 18 yuan/ton [8]. - The report also tracks the production levels and inventory of coal, indicating a slight decrease in daily production and a stable inventory situation at ports [8][9]. Downstream Performance - The report discusses the daily coal consumption in power plants, which is currently lower than expected but is projected to increase as winter progresses. The report also notes the impact of steel production on coal demand [9][10]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in coal stocks, particularly those that are expected to benefit from rising coal prices due to seasonal demand increases. Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [8][9].

Summary of the Conference Call for Jin Control Coal Industry Industry Overview - The company operates in the coal mining industry, specifically focusing on coal production and related activities. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Production Stability**: Despite the State Development and Reform Commission's supply guarantee and the Energy Bureau's overproduction policies, the company's production progress remains stable, with an average monthly output of approximately 3 million tons since October [2][3][3]. 2. **Panjiayao Tungsten Mine Progress**: The integration of the Panjiayao Tungsten Mine into the listed company is progressing smoothly, with expectations to complete the necessary procedures by the end of the year [2][4][4]. 3. **Tax Payments for Siliang Mine**: The Siliang Mine has already paid over 10 million yuan in taxes, with an outstanding tax payment of over 100 million yuan expected to be completed by year-end [2][5][5]. 4. **Copper-Zinc Mine Recovery**: The copper-zinc mine has partially resumed normal production since October, leading to improved profitability and a narrowing decline in annual investment returns [2][6][6]. 5. **Coal Price Trends**: The average coal price from January to September was 423 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%. Since October, coal prices have not shown significant improvement, with expectations of fluctuating between 750 to 800 yuan per ton due to weak demand and market sentiment [2][7][9]. 6. **Coal Prices in October**: In October, the price for Tashan coal was around 510-520 yuan per ton, while Siliang coal was slightly above 200 yuan per ton. Tashan's costs remained stable, while Siliang's costs increased slightly due to maintenance [2][8][8]. 7. **Inventory Levels**: The company is currently in a replenishment phase due to previously low inventory levels caused by rapid price increases [2][10][10]. 8. **Long-term Coal Contracts**: The proportion of long-term contracts for thermal coal remains around 40%, with no significant issues in contract fulfillment. The Tashan mine has direct transportation to nearby power plants, while Siliang has resumed normal contract fulfillment after renegotiation [2][11][11]. 9. **Sales Volume Decline**: The decline in Tashan's sales volume from January to September was primarily due to an increase in calorific value from 5,000 to 5,500 kcal, which reduced the yield during washing. This strategy, while ensuring sales, has increased costs and may impact future sales depending on market demand [2][11][11]. Additional Important Information - The company is closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting strategies accordingly, particularly in response to seasonal demand fluctuations expected in winter [2][9][9].

Core Insights - The coal mining sector experienced a 0.98% increase on November 27, with Xinda Zhou A leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.26, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12875.19, down 0.25% [1] Coal Mining Sector Performance - Xinda Zhou A (000571) closed at 5.67, up 3.85% with a trading volume of 365,900 shares and a transaction value of 203 million yuan [1] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) closed at 23.04, up 2.49% with a trading volume of 272,900 shares and a transaction value of 622 million yuan [1] - Dayou Energy (600403) closed at 8.02, up 1.78% with a trading volume of 589,800 shares and a transaction value of 471 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Jinkong Coal Industry (601001) and Jiukang Energy (600188), with respective increases of 1.67% and 1.60% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The coal mining sector saw a net inflow of 9.66 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 13.74 million yuan [2] - However, there was a net outflow of 23.40 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Yancoal Energy (600188) experienced a significant net outflow of 54.61 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating a 12.51% share of total capital flow [3] - Lu'an Environmental Energy (669T09) had a net inflow of 43.37 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 14.65% of total capital flow [3] - Yongtai Energy (600157) also saw a net inflow of 35.48 million yuan from institutional investors, accounting for 4.19% of total capital flow [3]

11月27日，晋控煤业盘中上涨2.03%，截至13:39，报14.08元/股，成交1.68亿元，换手率0.72%，总市值 235.66亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出330.09万元，特大单买入504.34万元，占比3.00%，卖出580.44万元，占 比3.46%；大单买入3470.93万元，占比20.66%，卖出3724.92万元，占比22.18%。 晋控煤业今年以来股价涨9.02%，近5个交易日跌5.82%，近20日跌6.13%，近60日涨6.34%。 资料显示，晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司位于山西省大同市云冈区新平旺，成立日期2001年7月25 日，上市日期2006年6月23日，公司主营业务涉及煤炭采掘、洗选加工、销售。主营业务收入构成为： 煤炭94.00%，煤炭附产品销售3.26%，运输业务1.63%，其他1.11%。 截至11月20日，晋控煤业股东户数5.30万，较上期减少8.62%；人均流通股31579股，较上期增加 9.43%。2025年1月-9月，晋控煤业实现营业收入93.25亿元，同比减少16.99%；归母净利润12.77亿元， 同比减少40.65%。 分红方面，晋控煤业A股上市后累计 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯晋控煤业11月25日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至11月20日，公司股东人数为 53000余户。 ...