Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that coal prices are returning to reasonable levels, with a slight decline in thermal coal prices, and an expectation for gradual recovery to around 750 RMB/ton [1][2] - As of January 17, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 695 RMB/ton, down 4 RMB/ton from the previous period, having previously reached the estimated target price range of 800-860 RMB/ton [1][2] - The report highlights that the recent price drop is attributed to a combination of supply tightening due to regulatory actions and increased demand driven by seasonal heating needs [2][3] Group 2 - The investment logic suggests that both thermal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to undergo a recovery process influenced by policy adjustments and market dynamics [3] - The report outlines a four-step process for thermal coal price recovery, including the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a balance in profitability between coal and power companies [3] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices linked to the price ratio between coking and thermal coal [3] Group 3 - The investment recommendation emphasizes a dual logic of cyclical recovery and stable dividends, suggesting that coal stocks are positioned for upward price movement due to low historical price levels and improving supply-demand fundamentals [4] - The report identifies four main investment lines in coal stocks, focusing on cyclical logic, dividend potential, diversified aluminum exposure, and growth logic [4] - Specific coal companies are highlighted as beneficiaries of these trends, including Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, and others [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that coal prices are returning to reasonable levels, reinforcing the logic of stable coal prices. The price of thermal coal has slightly decreased, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing at 695 CNY/ton as of January 17, down 4 CNY/ton from the previous period. The report anticipates a gradual recovery to a reasonable price of 750 CNY/ton, with narrow fluctuations expected [3][4] - The long-term investment logic remains unchanged, driven by a dual influence of tightening supply and increasing demand. Supply constraints are a continuation of the strict production checks initiated in July, while demand is rising due to the heating season and increased industrial production [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at around 750 CNY/ton for 2025. The upper limit for coal prices is predicted to be between 800-860 CNY/ton [4][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The current ratio indicates target prices for coking coal at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. With both thermal and coking coal prices at historical lows, there is significant room for rebound. The report identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index fell by 3.11% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.54 percentage points. The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 15.12, and the PB ratio is 1.33, both ranking among the lowest in the A-share market [10][25][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] Report's Core View - The coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance. It is advisable to allocate coal stocks on dips. The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged, and coal prices have established a bottom and are expected to rise. High - quality coal enterprises have core asset attributes such as high profitability, high cash flow, high ROE, and high dividends. The coal sector is still undervalued, and its valuation is expected to increase. The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the "15th Five - Year Plan", and coal prices are likely to remain high. The report continues to be bullish on the coal sector and recommends top - down attention to several types of coal companies [3][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Core View and Key Focus - **Core View**: The coal industry is in the early stage of a new upward cycle. The supply side shows an increase in the utilization rate of sample power and coking coal mine wells. On the demand side, there are differences in coal consumption between inland and coastal areas, and non - electric demand also shows different trends. Coal prices stopped falling and rebounded since late December, but the rebound momentum weakened this week. In the future, inventory depletion and the upcoming cold wave will support coal prices, and the market is expected to be stable and slightly strong before the holiday. The coal sector has high - dividend support and upward elasticity, making it a cost - effective investment [11] - **Investment Suggestions**: Focus on companies with stable operations and performance, those with large previous declines and high elasticity, and high - quality metallurgical coal companies. Also, pay attention to other related companies [12] - **Key Focus**: In 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 9.6% year - on - year; India's coal production was basically flat with a slight decline; global seaborne coal trade decreased by 2.8% [13] 2. This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector fell 3.33% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 0.57% to 4731.87. The top - three sectors in terms of gains were computer, electronics, and media [14] - The power coal, coking coal, and coke sectors fell 3.46%, 3.66%, and 4.38% respectively [17] - The top - three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Anyuan Coal Industry (3.97%), Huayang Co., Ltd. (2.90%), and Diantou Energy (0.81%) [20] 3. Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of January 16, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 688.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 686.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the annual long - term agreement price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 684.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [24] - **Thermal Coal Price**: At ports, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) from Shanxi was 697 yuan/ton on January 17, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week. At production sites, prices in some areas were stable while in Datong, it decreased. Internationally, FOB and CIF prices showed different trends [30] - **Coking Coal Price**: At ports, the prices of coking coal in Jingtang Port and Lianyungang increased. At production sites, prices in some areas increased while in others they were stable. The CIF price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal in China increased [32] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Injection Price**: The coking anthracite car - loading price in Jiaozuo was flat, while the prices of pulverized coal injection in Changzhi and Yangquan decreased [40] 4. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of sample power coal mine wells was 90.6%, up 0.3 percentage points week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of sample coking coal mine wells was 88.47%, up 3.1 percentage points week - on - week [47] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of January 16, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal decreased [43] - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces saw a decrease in coal inventory and an increase in daily consumption, while coastal 8 provinces saw a decrease in both inventory and consumption [44] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: The Myspic composite steel price index increased slightly, the price of first - grade metallurgical coke was flat, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, the profit per ton of coke decreased, the profit per ton of steel in the blast furnace increased, the iron - scrap price difference decreased, and the blast furnace scrap consumption ratio decreased [65][66] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: Urea prices in some regions increased, the national methanol price index decreased, the national ethylene glycol price index decreased, the national acetic acid price index increased, the national synthetic ammonia price index increased, the national cement price index decreased, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and chemical weekly coal consumption increased [72][76] 5. Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventory increased to 550.0 tons; 55 ports' thermal coal inventory decreased to 6830.8 tons; the inventory of 462 sample mines decreased to 283.9 tons [91] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The production - site inventory decreased to 272.4 tons, the six - port inventory decreased to 298.9 tons, the inventory of independent coking plants increased to 954.8 tons, and the inventory of sample steel mills increased to 802.2 tons [92] - **Coke Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants decreased to 40.6 tons, the four - port inventory increased to 188.1 tons, and the inventory of sample steel mills increased to 650.33 tons [94] 6. Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of January 16, the China Yangtze River Coal Transportation Comprehensive Freight Index (CCSFI) was 704 points, down 3.6 points week - on - week [107] - **Ratio of Cargo to Ships at Four Northern Ports**: As of January 16, the inventory at four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1465.2 tons, the number of anchored ships was 99, and the ratio of cargo to ships was 14.8, down 1.96 week - on - week [102] - **Daqin Line Coal Transportation**: The average daily coal shipment volume on the Daqin Line this week was 118.0 tons, up 9.75 tons week - on - week [107] 7. Weather Situation - As of January 16, the Three Gorges outbound flow was 9180 cubic meters per second, up 23.22% week - on - week [114] - In the next 10 days, there will be precipitation in some areas, and a cold wave will affect many regions with significant temperature drops [114] - In the long - term (January 27 - 30), there will be precipitation in some areas, and the average temperature in some regions will be lower or higher than normal [114] 8. Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table shows the closing prices, net profit attributable to shareholders, EPS, and PE of key listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [115] - **Key Announcements**: Xinji Energy released its 2025 performance report; Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. announced the progress of its controlling shareholder's strategic restructuring; Guanghui Energy announced a guarantee - related关联交易; Meijin Energy announced a guarantee for its subsidiary and its 2025 performance forecast [116][117][118] 9. This Week's Important Industry News - By 2030, Guizhou's coal production and trial - operation capacity will reach 260 million tons per year [119] - Yunnan will increase coal resource exploration and promote the release of advanced coal production capacity [119] - 20 coal mines in Ordos passed the intelligent acceptance [119] - Guizhou has made breakthroughs in the coal and unconventional natural gas fields [119] - Jiangsu released its 2026 major project list, including one coal - related project [120]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Xinji Energy, among others [9]. Core Insights - The coal market is experiencing a potential turning point driven by AI reshaping demand in the U.S. and supply constraints from Indonesia [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring "black swan" events that could significantly impact coal prices, particularly changes in domestic policies and increased demand from the U.S. [3]. - The report indicates that the coal market lacks imagination under current fundamentals but could see price increases if unexpected events occur [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index was reported at 3690.69 points, down 3.34%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.77 percentage points [4][74]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of thermal coal at North Port was 704 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3 RMB/ton [30]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption remains strong, and pre-holiday production cuts are expected, suggesting a continued upward trend in coal prices [15]. - **Coking Coal**: Increased purchasing by steel companies is driving coking coal prices higher, with significant price increases noted in various coal types [35][48]. - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the coal market is mixed, with some participants optimistic about future demand due to weather changes and others concerned about weak terminal demand [32]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, such as China Shenhua, Yancoal, and others, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming periods [11][10]. - Companies like Keda Control and China Qinfa are highlighted for their potential recovery and growth prospects [11]. Price Trends - Coking coal prices have seen significant increases, with low-sulfur coking coal prices rising by 100 RMB/ton week-on-week [35]. - The report notes that the average profit per ton of coking coal has decreased, indicating pressure on margins for some producers [72]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of thermal coal at major ports was reported at 6440 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 6 million tons [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production rates, particularly as the Chinese New Year approaches, which typically affects supply [15]. Conclusion - The coal industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for price increases driven by demand shifts and supply constraints. Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong market positions and growth potential in this evolving landscape [3][11].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the coal industry is currently experiencing a transformation, with policies aimed at energy security and a shift in supply dynamics. The coal price is expected to stabilize, with potential fluctuations in the short term [5][6] - The report highlights the limited elasticity of coal supply due to strict capacity controls and increasing mining difficulties, particularly in eastern regions. This is expected to lead to a concentration of production in western areas, raising supply costs [5] - The report suggests that despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs will support coal prices, which are anticipated to maintain a volatile upward trend [5] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 3.11%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.54 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has increased by 2.96% [13] 2. Thermal Coal - As of January 16, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 695 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 66 CNY/ton [3][32] - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.467 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [3][42] - The report notes a significant drop in daily consumption at major power plants, with inventory levels slightly increasing [3][46] 3. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port has risen to 1,770 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 150 CNY/ton [4][76] - Daily average production from 523 sample mines is 769,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [4][76] - The report indicates that the coking coal market is experiencing upward price adjustments, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from steel production [4][76] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from a bottoming coal price cycle are also highlighted, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6] - The report recommends considering companies with integrated coal and power operations to mitigate cyclical volatility, such as Shaanxi Energy and Xinji Energy [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to experience a recovery in demand due to a cold wave, which may stimulate heating needs and lead to increased procurement [7]. - The report highlights that the coal price is likely to stabilize and potentially increase in the latter part of January, driven by a combination of steady supply and moderate demand recovery [7]. - The investment strategy suggests positioning in coal stocks that have shown resilience and potential for growth, particularly those with strong dividend yields and low valuations [8]. Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,905.163 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,857.669 billion yuan [2]. Key Company Performance - Major companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted for their strong earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with recommendations to buy or hold based on their growth potential [5]. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes fluctuations in coal prices, with a recent increase in coking coal prices by 150 yuan/ton, while thermal coal prices have seen a slight decline [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines is reported at 5.467 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.28% [8]. Inventory and Supply Chain - Coal inventory levels at major ports have increased, with a total of 27.012 million tons reported as of January 17, indicating a year-on-year increase of 5.50% [7]. - The report anticipates a tightening supply in the near term due to ongoing safety inspections and the upcoming holiday season affecting production [7]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment lines: 1. Companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy [8]. 2. Companies with growth potential based on their production capacity, such as Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [8]. 3. Companies positioned for recovery in coking coal prices, including Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including 晋控煤业, 山煤国际, 潞安环能, 华阳股份, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中广核矿业 [3][4]. Core Insights - The coal prices are expected to remain strong due to a combination of cold weather and pre-holiday stockpiling, with prices projected to fluctuate between 750-1000 RMB/ton [10][12]. - The report highlights a recovery in coal prices post-New Year, driven by reduced production and low inventory levels at ports [10][12]. - The focus is on companies with high spot market exposure and improved balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has completed overproduction governance for 2024 [10][12]. - The report suggests that downstream replenishment has begun, leading to a stable to slightly strong outlook for coking coal prices [10][12]. - The first round of price increases for coke is anticipated due to rising raw material costs and improved steel mill profitability [10][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The coal sector experienced a weekly decline of 3.3%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [18][21]. - The best-performing stocks included 云维股份 and 江钨装备, while 大有能源 faced the largest decline [24][26]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that Mongolia's coal exports increased by 7.11% year-on-year, while Australia's coal export value decreased by 13.48% [28][32]. - China's coal imports rose by 11.94% in December 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery in demand [34][34]. Company Performance - New集能源 reported a 3.01% increase in raw coal production for 2025, while 中煤能源 saw an 8.0% decrease in December's coal production [44][45]. - 大有能源 projected a significant net loss for 2025, highlighting the challenges faced by the company in the current market environment [46][51].

1月16日，晋控煤业盘中下跌2.03%，截至11:29，报13.97元/股，成交1.21亿元，换手率0.51%，总市值 233.82亿元。 分红方面，晋控煤业A股上市后累计派现60.83亿元。近三年，累计派现36.40亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，晋控煤业十大流通股东中，国泰中证煤炭ETF（515220）位居第 二大流通股东，持股3322.32万股，相比上期增加2024.05万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第七大 流通股东，持股1215.10万股，相比上期减少23.97万股。香港中央结算有限公司位居第八大流通股东， 持股1132.14万股，相比上期减少1068.98万股。万家精选A（519185）位居第十大流通股东，持股992.06 万股，相比上期减少253.22万股。睿远成长价值混合A（007119）、安信稳健增值混合A（001316）退 出十大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司位于山西省大同市云冈区新平旺，成立日期2001年7月25 日，上市日期2006年6月23日，公司主营业务涉及煤炭采掘、洗选加工、销售。主营业务收入构成为： 煤炭 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to remain elevated due to persistent cold weather and improving demand, with power coal prices showing a week-on-week increase [1][6]. - The report notes that the supply side is tightening due to safety inspections and environmental checks in major production areas, which is expected to support coal prices [1][5]. - The report recommends stable, high-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, while also suggesting attention to growth-oriented coal companies [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - A national safety production meeting was held to enhance safety measures in coal mining, emphasizing a systematic approach to safety governance [5]. - A new coal transportation route from Longkou to Guangzhou has been established, which is significant for energy security and regional economic development [5]. Price Trends - As of January 9, 2026, power coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were reported at 526, 613, and 699 CNY/ton for different grades, reflecting week-on-week increases [1]. - The report indicates that the average daily consumption of coal has improved, with a noted increase in coal output from production areas [1][2]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased to 63.34 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 4.26%, which may influence coal prices [11]. Port Inventory Trends - The average daily coal inflow at the Bohai Rim ports increased to 1.4613 million tons, while the outflow also saw a slight increase, indicating a dynamic supply-demand balance [16]. - Port inventories decreased to 26.727 million tons, a reduction of 2.91% week-on-week, suggesting tightening supply conditions [16]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs decreased to 31.90 CNY/ton, while international shipping rates showed mixed trends, with some routes experiencing price increases [22]. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their stock prices, market capitalizations, and projected earnings ratios for the upcoming years [25].

Summary of Jin控煤业 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jin控煤业 - **Industry**: Coal Mining Key Points Dividend Policy - Jin控煤业 expects to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40%-50% for 2026, with specific plans to be discussed in March or April [2][4] Pricing and Sales - The company has implemented a new pricing model in some regions, using a base price plus a floating price for monthly adjustments, while the Dazhong Tashan area continues with the original pricing mechanism [2][6] - Coal prices are expected to remain supported in 2026, projected between 670-850 RMB/ton, ensuring profitability for coal enterprises [5][15] - The average coal price for the company from January to November 2026 is approximately 430 RMB/ton, a decrease of about 60 RMB/ton year-on-year [5][18] Production Capacity and Quality - The Shalian coal mine has completed the necessary procedures for an 800 million ton capacity increase, but coal quality is currently poor due to geological issues, leading to lower sales prices [2][7] - Tashan area production remains stable with no significant changes [2][8] - The company has not yet determined specific production plans for 2026, with Tashan's long-term coal supply stable and primarily directed towards power plants [2][12] Long-term Contracts - The long-term coal supply contract for Shalian has decreased to 5.7 million tons due to low fulfillment rates from the previous year, where only 3.23 million tons were realized [2][12] Regulatory Environment - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Shanxi Province may introduce assessment indicators for listed companies to promote capital operations [2][11] - There is a lack of effective punitive measures for power plants regarding low fulfillment rates of coal contracts, despite various constraints on coal enterprises [2][13] Market Dynamics - The recovery of coal export tariffs is expected to suppress the increase in imported coal volumes, contributing to a stable market outlook [5][16] - The overall supply may be impacted by resource depletion and increased mining difficulties, with weather factors being significant variables [5][15] Cost Structure - The company's cost levels are expected to remain stable or slightly decrease, with costs around 330 RMB/ton in the first three quarters [5][19] Future Developments - The asset injection from the group has been delayed due to high performance commitment requirements from the exchange, with new leadership potentially affecting decision-making [2][9][10] Conclusion - Jin控煤业 is navigating a complex regulatory and market environment while maintaining a focus on production stability and profitability, with strategic discussions on dividends and long-term contracts forthcoming.