Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.64 CNY based on a 14x PE for 2025 earnings [5][62]. Core Insights - The company's coal business is expected to develop steadily, with potential for profit growth from both existing and new capacities [1][30]. - The company has a low debt ratio, which has decreased from 61% in 2018 to 28.9% in 2024, indicating strong financial health and room for excess dividends [2][24]. - The stability of the company's coal prices is highlighted, showing low volatility compared to peers [3][42]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company primarily operates three coal mines: Tashan, Selian, and Tongxin, with total approved capacity of 34.6 million tons per year and equity capacity of 23.23 million tons [1][32]. - The company plans to acquire the Panjiayao mine, which could increase total capacity by 19.8% and equity capacity by 35.3% [30][32]. Financial Health - The company has a strong cash flow, with a projected dividend payout ratio increasing from 14.37% in 2021 to 45% in 2024, resulting in a static dividend yield of approximately 5.8% [2][28]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.26 CNY, with net profits expected to be 2.11 billion CNY [62][63]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 21.1 billion CNY for 2025, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [62][63]. - The company's coal sales revenue is projected to decline to 12.96 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a decrease in coal prices [62][63]. Industry Analysis - The coal industry is expected to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics in 2025, driven by environmental regulations and reduced imports [49][56]. - The report notes that the company's coal prices have remained stable, contrasting with the volatility seen in the broader market [3][42].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential awakening of the coal sector, suggesting that after a challenging period, coal prices are expected to rise towards the end of the year, providing upward momentum for the sector [2]. Industry Performance - As of September 19, 2025, the coal industry has seen a decline of 2.3% year-to-date, ranking last among 30 industries. However, in the week of September 19, it experienced a weekly increase of 3.6%, ranking second among the industries, indicating a significant contrast in performance [2]. - The report predicts that the coal price will stabilize and potentially reach a peak by the end of the year, which could drive further positive performance in the coal sector [2]. Company Focus - The report highlights several companies to watch within the coal sector: - **Keda Control**: Noted for its focus on smart mining [2]. - **China Coal Energy (H+A)** and **China Shenhua (H+A)**: Major state-owned enterprises in the coal industry [2]. - **China Qinfa**: Recommended for its turnaround potential [2]. - **Shanxi Coal and Electricity, Huainan Mining, and Xinji Energy**: Identified as strong performers [2]. - **Yankuang Energy, Jinkong Coal, and Pingmei Shenma**: Noted for their elasticity and potential for growth [2]. - **Huayang Co. and Gansu Energy**: Suggested as companies with future growth potential [2]. - **Anyuan Coal Industry**: Highlighted for its recent changes in control and ongoing asset restructuring [2].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18% on September 23, with five industries experiencing gains, led by the banking and coal sectors, which rose by 1.52% and 1.11% respectively [1] - The coal industry saw a net inflow of 3.99 million yuan, with 21 out of 37 stocks in the sector rising [1] Coal Industry Performance - The coal sector had a total of 37 stocks, with 21 gaining and 16 declining in value [1] - Notable stocks with significant net inflows included Yongtai Energy, which saw a net inflow of 138 million yuan, followed by Jinkong Coal and Shaanxi Coal with inflows of 56.18 million yuan and 53.05 million yuan respectively [1] - Stocks with the highest net outflows included China Shenhua, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Zhongmei Energy, with outflows of 61.97 million yuan, 44.94 million yuan, and 43.26 million yuan respectively [1] Key Stocks in Coal Sector - Yongtai Energy: Increased by 6.17% with a turnover rate of 11.97% and a main capital flow of 137.97 million yuan [1] - Jinkong Coal: Increased by 3.97% with a turnover rate of 3.42% and a main capital flow of 56.18 million yuan [1] - Shaanxi Coal: Increased by 0.93% with a turnover rate of 0.55% and a main capital flow of 53.05 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Anyuan Coal and Yanzhou Coal, which saw increases of 6.96% and 2.53% respectively [1]

Group 1 - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) decreased by 0.17% as of September 23, 2025, with Nanjing Bank (601009) leading the gains at 4.30% [1] - The People's Bank of China announced on September 19 that it would adjust the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, which aims to enhance liquidity management [1] - Analysts from Galaxy Securities believe this adjustment will improve the pricing mechanism of interest rates and enhance liquidity management efficiency, giving larger state-owned banks a competitive edge over smaller banks [1][2] Group 2 - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index consists of 100 listed companies selected for their high and stable cash dividend yields, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend state-owned enterprises [2] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 16.84% of the total index, including companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) [2] - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) closely tracks the performance of the index, providing investors with exposure to high-dividend state-owned enterprises [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating due to expected price increases in coal [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a tight supply situation and strong pre-holiday inventory demand, predicting that coal prices will continue to rise [1][3]. - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased by 10.27% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow also saw a rise of 14.21% [3][22]. - The report emphasizes the expected price increases for thermal coal and coking coal, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [3][10]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report notes significant coal resource discoveries in Anhui province, which are crucial for strategic reserves [9]. - The report mentions the successful launch of a coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang, expected to be operational by 2027 [5]. Price Movements - As of September 19, thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 27, and 24 CNY/ton respectively [3][10]. - Coking coal prices remained stable, with prices reported at 1510 CNY/ton for low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi [3][13]. Inventory and Supply - Bohai Rim port coal inventory decreased by 0.89% week-on-week, totaling 22.5 million tons [3][22]. - The report indicates that the overall supply from production areas remains tight due to capacity checks, affecting recovery rates [3][10]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs increased by 19.91% week-on-week, averaging 35.53 CNY/ton [3][31]. - International shipping rates showed mixed trends, with Indonesian coal prices slightly decreasing [3][31]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [3][36]. - Notable companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, with varying price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating their market performance [3][36].

Core Viewpoint - Jin控煤业's stock price has shown fluctuations with a recent decline of 2.03%, while the company has experienced an overall increase of 8.48% year-to-date, indicating volatility in the coal industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jin控煤业 reported operating revenue of 5.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 876 million yuan, down 39.01% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 6.083 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.640 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 22, Jin控煤业's stock was trading at 14.01 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 23.449 billion yuan and a trading volume of 321 million yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 24.036 million yuan in principal funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and several mutual funds, with notable changes in shareholding among these entities [3]. - The number of shareholders has increased to 57,000, while the average circulating shares per person have decreased by 2.17% [2].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - A V-shaped reversal in coal prices is anticipated, with winter prices expected to reach 800 CNY/ton. The long-term contracts are supporting spot prices, and policy-driven sentiment is leading to significant price increases. The long-term contract prices for September are 674, 613, and 551 CNY/ton for 5500, 5000, and 4500 kcal respectively, with the CCI index showing slight variations [6][26] - The coal market is expected to see a balance between supply and demand gradually, with prices steadily rising. The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry and suggests focusing on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in coking coal and coke sectors [6][26] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 3.59% as of September 19, 2025, while the index fell by 0.44%, resulting in a 4.03 percentage point outperformance. A total of 24 stocks in the sector rose, with Yongtai Energy showing the highest increase of 13.42% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.22 million tons for the week of September 12-18, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 5.3%. The average daily production was 7.18 million tons, also up 4.8% week-on-week and 4.4% year-on-year [2][24] Price Trends - As of September 19, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 676 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The import price index for thermal coal was 812 CNY/ton, up 4.5% week-on-week. Prices at various ports and production areas also showed increases [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610 CNY/ton, up 3.9% week-on-week, while the futures settlement price for coking coal was 1216 CNY/ton, reflecting a 6.9% increase [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total coal inventory monitored was 25.54 million tons as of September 18, 2025, a decrease of 1% week-on-week and 6% year-on-year. The cumulative sales volume of key monitored enterprises was 180.46 million tons, down 2.4% year-on-year [2][24] - The report indicates that the demand from the power and chemical industries has varied, with coal consumption in the power sector down 2.9% year-on-year, while the chemical sector saw an increase of 16% [2][24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the thermal coal sector such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, as well as coking coal companies like Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal. It also highlights companies in the coke sector that are expected to see profit improvements [6][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have rebounded above 700 RMB, with a current price of 704 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 24 RMB/ton (3.53%) [3][4] - The demand for non-electric coal is expected to be a highlight in the upcoming months, particularly during the "golden September and silver October" period [4] - The report predicts that the current rebound in coal prices is at a turning point, with potential further increases expected as the market stabilizes [4][5] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The prices of thermal coal and coking coal are at a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to recover to long-term contract prices, currently above the second target price of around 700 RMB [4][13] - Future expectations indicate that thermal coal prices could reach a third target price of approximately 750 RMB, with a potential peak at around 860 RMB [4][13] Market Performance - The coal index increased by 3.51% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.96 percentage points [8][25] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.59, and the PB ratio is 1.28, ranking low among all A-share industries [25][31] Coal Price Indicators - As of September 19, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 704 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 24 RMB [20] - The price of coking coal at the Jingtang port has risen to 1670 RMB/ton, reflecting a significant increase from earlier months [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for investment in coal stocks, focusing on both cyclical recovery and stable dividends, with specific stocks recommended for investment [5][14] - Key stocks identified for investment include: - Cyclical logic: Jinko Coal Industry, Yanzhou Coal Mining - Dividend logic: China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy - Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Holdings, Electric Power Investment Energy - Growth logic: Xinjie Energy, Guanghui Energy [5][14][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal economy is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [3][13] - The report highlights that coal prices have shown signs of stabilization, and there is an expectation for price increases due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [5][13] - The report emphasizes the continued investment logic of coal capacity shortages, with a short-term balance and a long-term gap in supply [13][14] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of September 19, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 699 CNY/ton, an increase of 21 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][31] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1610 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][33] - International thermal coal prices have also seen fluctuations, with Newcastle thermal coal at 69.6 USD/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.4 USD/ton [4][31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.7%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points week-on-week [4][48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 4.10 thousand tons/day (+1.22%) [5][13] - The report notes that the supply side is still constrained by policies, and the demand is expected to rise as winter heating needs begin [5][13] Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 3.59%, outperforming the broader market [16] - The report identifies key companies to focus on, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, highlighting their stable operations and strong performance [14][16]

Group 1 - The coal mining sector increased by 2.02% on September 19, with Huayang Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.3%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [1] - Notable performers in the coal mining sector included: - Biaozhan Service (600348) with a closing price of 7.60, up 7.80% - Lu'an Huaneng (6691099) at 15.00, up 5.63% - Jinko Coal Industry (601001) at 14.30, up 5.54% [1] Group 2 - The coal mining sector experienced a net outflow of 355 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 320 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flows included: - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) with a net inflow of 127 million yuan from institutional investors - Biaozhan Co. (600348) with a net inflow of 106 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - The overall trading volume for the coal mining sector was substantial, with various companies reporting significant transaction amounts [2][3]