Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the negative impact from the mid-year report has been fully absorbed, and the fundamentals of the coal industry remain upward [1] - The coal sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.74% compared to a 1.09% increase in the index, resulting in a relative underperformance of 1.83 percentage points [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.31 million tons, which is a week-on-week increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [2] - The report highlights a decrease in coal inventory by 4% week-on-week, while year-on-year inventory has increased by 19.8% [2] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector saw 6 stocks rise and 31 stocks fall during the week, with ST Dazhou showing the highest increase of 4.89% [2] - The average daily sales of thermal coal increased by 3.2% week-on-week, while coking coal sales rose by 1.9% [2] Price Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 663 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [3] - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1420 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 8.4% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that social inventory continues to decline, and current demand remains promising, with domestic power plants showing a significant increase in daily coal consumption [6] - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that are experiencing turnaround potential, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the volatile market, credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. Interest - rate bond yields slightly declined, while credit bond yields dropped more significantly. Credit spreads mostly decreased slightly, with the 3Y variety showing a relatively larger decline [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads generally compressed slightly. Spreads of external ratings AAA, AA +, and AA platforms decreased by 1BP respectively. Spreads also declined when classified by administrative levels [2][9][15]. - Most industrial bond spreads decreased. Central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads declined, mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads decreased, and private - enterprise real - estate bond spreads increased. Spreads of coal, steel, and chemical bonds also decreased [2][18]. - The yields of secondary and perpetual bonds followed the decline of certificates of deposit, with the short - to - medium - term performing relatively strongly [2][21]. - The excess spreads of 5Y industrial bonds and 3Y urban investment bonds slightly decreased [2][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Credit Bonds Outperformed Interest - Rate Bonds in the Volatile Market - Interest - rate bond yields slightly declined. The yields of 1Y, 5Y, and 7Y China Development Bank bonds decreased by 2BP, 1BP, and 1BP respectively, while the 3Y and 10Y remained flat [2][5]. - Credit bond yields dropped more significantly. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y credit bonds decreased to varying degrees [2][5]. - Credit spreads mostly decreased slightly, with the 3Y variety showing a relatively larger decline. Rating spreads and term spreads showed obvious differentiation [5]. 2. Urban Investment Bond Spreads Slightly Compressed - By external ratings, the spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA platforms decreased by 1BP respectively, with different changes in different regions [9]. - By administrative levels, the spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - level platforms decreased by 2BP, 1BP, and 1BP respectively, with different changes in different regions [15]. 3. Most Industrial Bond Spreads Decreased - Real - estate bonds: Central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads decreased by 2 - 4BP, mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads decreased by 1BP, and private - enterprise real - estate bond spreads increased by 7BP [2][18]. - Other industrial bonds: The spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA coal bonds decreased by 2BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively; the spreads of AAA and AA + steel bonds decreased by 2BP and 4BP respectively; and the spreads of all levels of chemical bonds decreased by 3BP [2][18]. 4. The Yields of Secondary and Perpetual Bonds Followed the Decline of Certificates of Deposit, with the Short - to - Medium - Term Performing Relatively Strongly - 1Y secondary and perpetual bonds: Yields decreased by 2 - 3BP, and spreads compressed by 1 - 2BP [21]. - 3Y secondary and perpetual bonds: The yields of secondary capital bonds decreased by 2BP, and spreads decreased by 2 - 3BP; the yields of perpetual bonds decreased by 3 - 4BP, and spreads decreased by 3 - 4BP [21]. - 5Y secondary and perpetual bonds: The yields of secondary capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and spreads compressed by 0 - 1BP; the yields of AA + and above perpetual bonds decreased by 1BP, and spreads increased by 1BP, while the yields of AA perpetual bonds decreased by 4BP, and spreads decreased by 2BP [21]. 5. The Excess Spreads of 5Y Industrial Bonds and 3Y Urban Investment Bonds Slightly Decreased - AAA 3Y industrial perpetual bond excess spreads remained at 3.82BP, at the 1.32% quantile since 2015; 5Y industrial perpetual bond excess spreads decreased by 0.86BP to 7.65BP, at the 4.18% quantile since 2015 [24]. - Urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bond excess spreads decreased by 0.65BP to 3.75BP, at the 0.29% quantile; urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bond excess spreads increased by 0.09BP to 10.21BP, at the 10.93% quantile [24]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank secondary and perpetual spreads, and industrial/urban investment perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. Historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [28]. - Industrial and urban investment bond credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [28]. - Specific calculation methods and sample selection criteria are provided, including how to calculate spreads, which samples to select, and which samples to exclude [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stable performance and growth potential [3][12]. Core Insights - National electricity load has reached new highs, with peak season demand expected to drive coal prices upward. The report anticipates that by mid-August, prices may exceed 750 RMB/ton, with a price center around 700 RMB/ton for the second half of the year [2][7]. - Coal supply is decreasing significantly, with June 2025 coal imports down by 11.1% year-on-year, and domestic coal production showing mixed results. The overall capacity utilization rate in the coal mining sector has dropped to 69.3%, the lowest since Q1 2020 [2][21][38]. - The demand side shows a positive trend, with thermal power generation growth turning positive since late May, and electricity consumption reaching record levels due to rising temperatures [2][7][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Huayang Co., Ltd. for stable performance and year-on-year production growth 2. Jinko Coal Industry for high net cash growth potential 3. Industry leaders like Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua for stable earnings 4. Shanmei International for recovery in production 5. Xinji Energy for coal-electricity integrated growth 6. CGN Mining for benefiting from nuclear power growth [3][12]. Market Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the coal sector has seen a weekly decline of 0.7%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [13][15]. - Yunnan Coal Energy has shown the highest weekly increase at 4.11%, while Dayou Energy has experienced the largest decline at 10.33% [18][19]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that coal prices are on an upward trend, with significant increases in both port and production prices. For instance, Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price reached 634 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 10 RMB/ton [8][10]. - The report highlights the structural tightness in coal supply, with power plants' coal inventories dropping below levels seen in 2023 and 2024 [2][7].

Group 1 - The core concept of the new "anti-involution" supply-side reform differs significantly from the 2016 supply-side reform, focusing on regulating low-price competition rather than eliminating backward production capacity [1] - The "anti-involution" strategy aims to stabilize the price bottom in the coal industry by reducing disorderly competition, which is expected to lead to a more pragmatic bottom in the current market [1][3] - The report recommends leading companies in the coal sector, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), China Coal Energy (601898.SH), and Jinkong Coal (601001.SH), as they are expected to benefit from the release of performance risks [1] Group 2 - The cement industry serves as a successful case of "anti-involution," where collaborative production cuts have led to a recovery in industry profitability, highlighting the challenges of implementing similar strategies in the coal sector [2] - The coal industry is currently at a fundamental turning point, with over 50% of coal enterprises reporting losses, particularly in coking coal, indicating a need for production cuts to stabilize prices [3] - The supply side has shown a significant decrease in production from April to May, with spontaneous production cuts occurring due to economic pressures, while demand has started to recover, suggesting a potential turning point for electricity consumption growth [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates seasonal improvement in thermal coal demand due to high temperatures in July and August, which may lead to a short-term price recovery for thermal coal. The coal sector is currently underweight, with attractive dividend yields and defensive allocation value [2][25] - For coking coal, there is a rebound in prices driven by strong policy expectations and market sentiment, but the bargaining power of coking coal remains relatively weak in the black industry chain, limiting short-term upside potential [2][34] Supply Summary - Domestic coal production in June reached 42.107 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month increase of 4.4%. The total coal production for the first half of the year was 240.5 million tons, up 5.4% year-on-year [6][14] - Coal imports in June fell to 33.04 million tons, a decrease of 25.93% year-on-year and 8.3% month-on-month. Cumulative imports for the first half of the year were 221.7 million tons, down 11.1% year-on-year [18][21] Demand Summary - In June, thermal power generation increased by 1.1% year-on-year and 7.0% month-on-month, with total domestic power generation reaching 796.3 billion kWh, up 1.7% year-on-year [24][27] - Non-electric coal demand, particularly in cement production, saw a decline, with June production at 15.547 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year [29][33] - The steel sector showed a significant year-on-year decrease in production, with crude steel output in June at 8.318 million tons, down 9.2% year-on-year [33][38] Future Outlook - The report suggests that thermal coal prices may see further support due to seasonal demand increases and the current low inventory levels at power plants. Key factors to monitor include supply conditions, high-temperature weather, and sustained demand release [25][27] - For coking coal, while recent price rebounds are noted, the report indicates limited short-term upside due to weak bargaining power and strong expectations of a seasonal downturn [34][38]

Macro and Strategy - June financial data shows a significant rebound in credit, with new social financing reaching 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations of 3.71 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans at 2.24 trillion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 1.84 trillion yuan [8][9][10] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in domestic economic momentum as private sector balance sheet expansion improves [8][9] - The "seesaw effect" between government financing and corporate loans has weakened, suggesting a shift in credit dynamics as local governments approach their annual debt targets [9][10] Retail Industry - The jewelry market is projected to grow steadily, with the market size reaching 728 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.6% since 2019 [11][12] - The top five companies in the jewelry sector hold a market share of 41.4%, indicating increasing industry concentration as consumer preferences shift towards quality and design [11][12] - The retail sector is benefiting from the recent Amazon Prime Day, which generated an estimated $24.1 billion in sales, a 30% increase year-on-year, highlighting the growth potential in cross-border e-commerce [13][14] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.92% increase, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.17 percentage points [14] - The liquor market is stabilizing, with major brands focusing on brand positioning and market health, while the overall demand remains under pressure [15][16] - Recommendations include leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which have shown resilience and potential for recovery [15][16] Construction and Building Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to improve due to a shift towards healthy competition and urban renewal initiatives, with a focus on technological innovation [17][18] - Cement prices have stabilized, with a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week, while demand remains steady despite seasonal fluctuations [17][18] - Recommendations include companies like Three Trees and China National Building Material, which are well-positioned to benefit from domestic demand [18] Computer Industry - The AI ASIC market is rapidly expanding, with a projected market size growth from $14.8 billion in 2024 to $83.8 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 33.5% [19][20] - The price advantage of AI ASIC chips over GPUs is significant, with average prices of $5,236 compared to $8,001 for GPUs, making them more attractive for specific applications [19][20] - Companies like Google and Amazon are accelerating their development of ASIC chips, indicating strong future demand in this sector [21] Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is experiencing stable growth in domestic sales, driven by government subsidies, while exports face challenges due to high bases and tariff impacts [22][23] - White goods are seeing a slight increase in domestic sales, with air conditioning units showing a 9.5% growth in domestic shipments [22][23] - Recommendations include leading brands such as Midea and Gree, which are expected to maintain strong performance [22][23] Pharmaceutical Industry - Merck's acquisition of Verona for $10 billion aims to enhance its portfolio with a new COPD treatment, indicating strong growth potential in respiratory therapies [27][28] - WuXi AppTec is projected to achieve a 102% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting robust operational performance [29] - The pharmaceutical sector is showing resilience, with a focus on innovative treatments and strategic acquisitions [27][28] Coal Industry - The coal market is expected to stabilize as domestic production increases and imports decrease, with a projected production of 4.85 billion tons in 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year [31][32] - Demand for coal is anticipated to improve in the second half of the year, particularly for non-electric uses such as chemical production [33] - Recommendations include leading coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, which are well-positioned to benefit from market dynamics [34] Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing positive momentum, with a 0.93% increase in stock performance, driven by strong demand in the optical and semiconductor segments [34] - The industry is expected to see significant catalysts in the coming months, particularly in the context of AI and cloud computing advancements [34] - Companies involved in ASIC development are likely to benefit from the ongoing trends in computing and data processing [34]

Supply: Marginal Increment Significantly Reduced - Domestic coal production from January to May increased by approximately 130 million tons year-on-year, while imports decreased by about 16 million tons, indicating an overall increase in supply [3][7] - The domestic raw coal production reached 1.99 billion tons from January to May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6%. However, the growth rate is expected to narrow in the second half of the year, with an estimated total production of around 4.85 billion tons for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9 million tons (2%) [3][9] - The decrease in imports is attributed to weak demand, high inventory levels, and diminishing price advantages of imported coal. For the first five months of 2025, coal imports totaled 19 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 16 million tons (8%) [3][64] Demand: Short-term Improvement Expected, Medium-term Resilience Visible - National commodity coal consumption from January to May reached 2.05 billion tons, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 billion tons (0.5%). The demand is expected to improve in the second half of the year as the consumption peak season approaches [3][4] - In the thermal power sector, the demand is under pressure due to slowing electricity growth and competition from renewable energy. However, the demand for thermal power is expected to rebound in the second half of the year [3][4] - Non-electric demand, particularly from the chemical sector, remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in coal-to-PVC, coal-to-ethylene glycol, and coal-to-methanol production [3][4] Inventory: High Port Inventory Declining, De-stocking Remains Focus - Port inventories are currently at high levels but are expected to decline as demand improves in the peak consumption season. The focus will remain on de-stocking [4] Price: Thermal Coal Prices at Bottom, Coking Coal Prices Showing Stages of Rebound - The average market price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal fell by approximately 199 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23%. However, there is potential for price rebound as supply-demand dynamics improve [3][57] Investment Recommendations: High Dividend Value Still Exists, Stage Game Elasticity - The report suggests that despite the downward pressure on coal prices, there is still potential for a rebound in the second half of the year. The resilience of coal demand is viewed positively in the medium term [3][4] - Key investment targets include stable-performing coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as elastic stocks like Electric Power Investment and Jinko Coal Industry [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the prices of thermal coal and coking coal are on the rebound, suggesting a turning point in the market [4][12] - The fundamentals for thermal coal remain favorable, with a current price of 632 CNY/ton for Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal, reflecting a 3.8% increase from the lowest price of 609 CNY/ton earlier this year [3][4] - Coking coal prices have also seen significant increases, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1350 CNY/ton, a 9.76% rise from the previous low of 1230 CNY/ton [4][20] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with expectations for prices to rebound towards long-term contract prices around 670 CNY/ton, potentially exceeding 700 CNY/ton if favorable fundamentals persist [4][12] - Coking coal is more influenced by market dynamics, with current prices indicating a state of overselling, and supply-side tightening expected due to policy changes [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The report highlights a slight decrease of 1.08% in the coal sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points [7] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the coal sector is 11.48, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio is 1.18, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9] Thermal Coal Market Insights - As of July 11, the inventory at ports has decreased by 19% from the highest level of 3316.3 million tons earlier this year, currently standing at 26.89 million tons [3][4] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has increased to 2.148 million tons, driven by seasonal demand [4][19] Coking Coal Market Insights - The report notes a significant rebound in coking coal prices, with futures rising from 719 CNY to 913 CNY, a cumulative increase of 27% [4][20] - The average daily pig iron production remains high at 2.408 million tons, although there are signs of potential declines due to seasonal factors [4][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic of cycles and dividends for investment in the coal sector, identifying four main lines for stock selection: dividend logic, cyclical logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [5][13] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [5][13]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - Social inventory has decreased for the first time, and summer demand is expected to remain strong. Domestic power plants are increasing daily coal consumption, leading to rising coal prices. Policies to control production and improve quality are being emphasized, supporting the fundamentals of both coking coal and thermal coal [6][29] - The report highlights that the overall level of social inventory is stable, with a significant increase in daily consumption expected due to hot weather and ongoing replenishment needs at power plants. The coking coal sector may see marginal improvements in performance due to potential declines in capacity utilization driven by environmental factors [6][29] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector saw a weekly increase of 0.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.82%. A total of 34 stocks in the sector increased in price, while 3 declined. Meijin Energy had the highest weekly increase at 10.8% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.21 million tons from July 4 to July 10, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] Price Trends - As of July 11, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 662 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.3%. The price index for imported thermal coal rose by 1.21% to 750 CNY/ton [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1310 CNY/ton, up 4.8% week-on-week, while the price of metallurgical coke remained stable at 1320 CNY/ton [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cumulative coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 131.73 million tons as of July 10, 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The demand from the power and chemical industries showed a year-on-year decrease of 3% and an increase of 16.6%, respectively [2][28] - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption in the power sector is expected to rise significantly, with the total social inventory of coal at 32.86 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.6% [2][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that may experience a turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Meijin Energy among others [6][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with short-term supply-demand balance and long-term gaps still present [11][12] - Coal prices have established a bottom and are trending towards a new platform, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is relatively undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with quality coal companies exhibiting high barriers to entry, cash flow, dividends, and yield characteristics [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 12, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 624 CNY/ton, an increase of 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [28] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1310 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.7%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 85.52%, up 1.7 percentage points [11][46] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces increased by 6.10 thousand tons/day (+2.92%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a decrease of 9.50 thousand tons/day (-2.61%) [11][47] Coal Inventory Situation - As of July 10, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 785 thousand tons (-2.18%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight decrease of 0.70 thousand tons (-0.01%) [11][47] Key Companies to Watch - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [12] - Attention to companies with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Power Investment, and Guanghui Energy [12]