Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Views - The current credit growth continues to slow down, and social financing growth is also declining from high levels. Although policies are in place to support the market, their impact on demand recovery has not yet been reflected due to time lags. The retail risk for listed banks has increased but remains manageable, supported by substantial provisioning and stable dividend policies, which together form a "stable anchor" for the "dividend revaluation" logic of banks. The banks' advantages in capital markets, wealth management, and investment banking create a "growth sail" for differentiated valuations. Bank valuations are still at historically low levels, and medium to long-term funds have the potential for allocation, making increased allocation to the banking sector a favorable choice under the "high cut low" and balanced allocation strategy. It is recommended to invest in state-owned banks as they still offer good value compared to risk-free interest rates. Specific recommendations include CITIC Bank, benefiting from China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [7]. Summary by Sections Deposit and Loan Growth - The deposit and loan growth rates for small and medium-sized banks continued to recover, with the national large banks' deposit-loan growth rate difference at -1.31% at the end of October, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points from the end of September. The four major banks' deposit-loan growth rate difference narrowed by 0.02 percentage points to -2.10%. Small and medium-sized banks recorded a deposit-loan growth rate difference of 3.74%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points [3][4]. Deposit Structure - In October, both large and small banks saw an acceleration in deposit growth, with large banks and small banks' deposit growth rates at 7.40% and 9.33%, respectively, increasing by 0.16 and 0.22 percentage points month-on-month. However, corporate deposits faced pressure, with both large and small banks experiencing negative growth in corporate deposits for the month. The increase in deposits was primarily driven by non-bank contributions, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" [4][5]. Credit Demand and Supply - The overall credit volume and structure remain poor, with small and medium-sized banks increasing lending. The total loans from deposit-taking financial institutions to residents and enterprises saw a year-on-year decrease. The credit growth is under pressure due to unfulfilled demand and other factors, including banks completing most of their annual credit targets in the first three quarters and a lack of actual credit demand conversion from policy measures [6]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current environment, increasing allocation to the banking sector is recommended as it presents a favorable opportunity for investors. The report emphasizes the potential of state-owned banks and suggests specific banks for investment based on their performance and market conditions [7].

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a collective rise in bank stocks, with notable increases in China Bank, which rose nearly 3%, and other banks like Everbright Bank, Bank of Communications, and Agricultural Bank of China also showing gains of over 1% [1] Summary by Category Stock Performance - China Bank increased by 2.77%, reaching a total market capitalization of 191.39 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 12.62% [2] - Everbright Bank rose by 1.98%, with a market cap of 21.27 billion and a year-to-date decline of 2.61% [2] - Bank of Communications saw a 1.75% increase, with a market cap of 66.80 billion and a year-to-date increase of 2.38% [2] - Agricultural Bank of China increased by 1.10%, with a market cap of 289.79 billion and a year-to-date increase of 62.02% [2] - Other banks such as Construction Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China also reported gains, with year-to-date increases ranging from 15.34% to 25.13% [2] Historical Performance - China Bank reached a new historical high, following similar achievements by Agricultural Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank [1]

（责任编辑：徐自立） 中国经济网北京11月18日讯 渝农商行（601077.SH）今日股价收报6.68元，跌幅2.34%。 今日，银行板块跌幅为0.59%，渝农商行股价垫底银行板块。 ...

Core Insights - The agricultural commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 0.94% on November 18, with Yunnan Agricultural Commercial Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3939.81, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13080.49, down 0.92% [1] Stock Performance - The closing prices and changes for key agricultural banks are as follows: - Wuxi Bank (600908): Closed at 6.16, down 0.16% - Su Nong Bank (603323): Closed at 5.25, down 0.19% - Zhangjiagang Bank (002839): Closed at 4.59, down 0.22% - Shanghai Agricultural Bank (601825): Closed at 8.89, down 0.34% - Changshu Bank (601128): Closed at 7.08, down 0.56% - Jiangyin Bank (002807): Closed at 4.84, down 0.62% - Ruifeng Bank (601528): Closed at 5.56, down 0.89% - Qingnong Bank (002958): Closed at 3.19, down 0.93% - Zijin Bank (601860): Closed at 2.84, down 1.39% - Yunnan Agricultural Bank (601077): Closed at 6.68, down 2.34% [1] Capital Flow - The agricultural commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 84.52 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 42.45 million yuan [1] - The detailed capital flow for selected banks includes: - Su Nong Bank: Main funds net inflow of 11.60 million yuan, retail net outflow of 6.05 million yuan - Qingnong Bank: Main funds net inflow of 5.36 million yuan, retail net outflow of 4.42 million yuan - Ruifeng Bank: Main funds net inflow of 3.82 million yuan, retail net outflow of 1.59 million yuan - Zijin Bank: Main funds net inflow of 3.54 million yuan, retail net outflow of 1.21 million yuan - Wuxi Bank: Main funds net inflow of 3.32 million yuan, retail net inflow of 2.90 million yuan - Yunnan Agricultural Bank: Main funds net outflow of 60.81 million yuan, retail net inflow of 39.29 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.05% and a year-to-date increase of 16.62% [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the bank reported a net profit of 10.694 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.74% [2]. - The bank's cumulative cash distribution since its A-share listing amounts to 17.819 billion yuan, with 9.818 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - The stock price is currently at 6.70 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 76.092 billion yuan [1]. - The trading volume shows a net outflow of 32.144 million yuan from main funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. Business Segments - The bank's revenue composition includes retail banking (40.09%), corporate banking (31.46%), and financial market operations (28.06%) [2]. - The bank operates through three main business departments: corporate banking, personal banking, and financial markets [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 0.60% to 123,800 [2]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, both of which have reduced their holdings [3].

Core Viewpoints - The mid-term dividend rush in the banking sector is nearing its end but is not yet finished, potentially extending until the end of November [4][11][26] - The four major banks have announced mid-term dividends earlier this year compared to last year, with the record date for dividends set for mid-December, which is nearly one month earlier than last year [7][11] - The recent rise in the banking sector is primarily driven by changes in market investment style, with mid-term dividends acting as a catalyst [4][11][26] Investment Strategy Post-Dividend Rush - After the mid-term dividend rush, the banking sector may experience short-term fluctuations, but it is unlikely that the overall trend has ended [5][14][26] - There are expected investment opportunities in the banking sector before the main spring rally is identified, suggesting that investors should overlook short-term volatility [5][16][26] - The demand for insurance funds and the need for asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment make stable bank stocks attractive [5][16][26] Stock Selection Recommendations - Focus on high-dividend, fundamentally strong stocks in the short term, while also considering quality stocks for potential upside [6][26] - Recommended stocks include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Merchants Bank for their stability, as well as Ningbo Bank and Chongqing Bank for their upward momentum [6][26] - Low-valuation banks such as Changsha Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank are also suggested for consideration [6][26] Market Performance Insights - The banking index has shown a cumulative increase of 7.7% from October 14 to November 14, 2025, with individual banks like ICBC and ABC showing significant gains [11][26] - The cumulative gains of the four major banks from December 2024 were 12.5%, 11.0%, 10.2%, and 10.0%, respectively, indicating a strong performance leading into the new year [7][11] Fundamental Analysis - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to stabilize, with net interest margins showing signs of improvement [23][26] - The asset quality of listed banks is at its best level in recent years, with retail non-performing loans gradually being cleared [23][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that listed banks have sold approximately 2 trillion yuan in bonds to realize floating profits from their available-for-sale (AC) accounts in the first three quarters of 2025 [13] - It is estimated that in Q4 2025, listed banks will need to sell about 900 billion yuan in bonds to support non-interest income [10] - The cumulative floating profit of listed banks' AC accounts is approximately 3.3 trillion yuan as of the end of H1 2025, accounting for 58.3% of the total revenue for the year 2024 [30] Summary by Sections Investment Growth - Since 2024, the investment growth rate of listed banks' AC accounts has consistently lagged behind the growth rate of financial investments, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% in Q3 2025, which is 4.28 percentage points lower than that of financial investments [13][15] - The growth rates for different types of banks from Q2 2023 to Q2 2025 are as follows: state-owned banks 14.7%, joint-stock banks 2.8%, city commercial banks 9.7%, and rural commercial banks -3.8% [13] Bond Selling and Profit Realization - The report estimates that the floating profit realization ratio for listed banks' AC accounts in the first three quarters of 2025 is about 3.06%, with a bond selling scale of approximately 2.04 trillion yuan [36] - The selling proportions for different bank types are: state-owned banks 2.26%, joint-stock banks 5.29%, city commercial banks 5.57%, and rural commercial banks 9.65%, with rural commercial banks showing the highest selling intensity [36] Financial Performance - The floating profit from the sale of bonds in the first three quarters of 2025 is estimated to be 1,078 billion yuan, which represents 2.50% of the total revenue, an increase of 1.59 percentage points compared to 2024 [22][25] - The breakdown of floating profit realization ratios by bank type is as follows: state-owned banks 2.24%, joint-stock banks 2.44%, city commercial banks 3.79%, and rural commercial banks 5.52% [22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bottom-line allocation to large state-owned banks, with beneficiaries including Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [6] - Core allocations should focus on leading comprehensive banks such as China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and Industrial Bank [6] - Flexible allocations can be made to banks like Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [6]

Market Overview - The rural commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 1.94% on November 17, with Jiangyin Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03, down 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13202.0, down 0.11% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Key stocks in the rural commercial bank sector showed the following closing prices and changes: - Zijin Bank: 2.88, down 0.69% - Wuxi Bank: 6.17, down 1.12% - Qingnong Bank: 3.22, down 1.23% - Sunong Bank: 5.26, down 1.31% - Ruifeng Bank: 5.61, down 1.41% - Zhangjiagang Bank: 4.60, down 1.50% - Changshu Bank: 7.12, down 1.52% - Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank: 6.84, down 2.15% - Hunan Rural Commercial Bank: 8.92, down 2.41% - Jiangyin Bank: 4.87, down 2.79% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The rural commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 7.09 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 69.16 million yuan [1] - The following table summarizes the capital flow for individual stocks: - Su Nong Bank: Institutional net outflow of 37.41 million yuan, retail net outflow of 23.52 million yuan - Wuxi Bank: Institutional net inflow of 20.36 million yuan, retail net outflow of 16.42 million yuan - Qingnong Bank: Institutional net inflow of 8.88 million yuan, retail net outflow of 4.44 million yuan - Zhangjiagang Bank: Institutional net inflow of 0.09 million yuan, retail net outflow of 4.14 million yuan - Zijin Bank: Institutional net outflow of 2.25 million yuan, retail net inflow of 1.99 million yuan - Hunan Rural Commercial Bank: Institutional net outflow of 3.01 million yuan, retail net outflow of 5.89 million yuan - Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank: Institutional net outflow of 3.03 million yuan, retail net outflow of 3.84 million yuan - Jiangyin Bank: Institutional net outflow of 4.77 million yuan, retail net outflow of 10.49 million yuan - Ruifeng Bank: Institutional net outflow of 7.96 million yuan, retail net inflow of 3.60 million yuan - Changshu Bank: Institutional net outflow of 38.61 million yuan, retail net inflow of 44.61 million yuan [2]

Macro Strategy - Fixed asset investment in China showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -1.70% for the first ten months of 2025, worsening from -0.50% in September. Key components such as infrastructure investment and manufacturing also experienced declines, with infrastructure down by 1.83 percentage points and manufacturing down by 1.30 percentage points. Real estate development investment saw a significant drop of -14.70% compared to -13.90% in September [2][4][5] Stock Market Overview - A-share indices experienced narrow fluctuations and slight declines from November 10 to November 14, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% and the ChiNext Index down by 3.01%. The market is currently in a "slow bull" phase, with expectations of continued wide fluctuations and gradual upward movement in November [3][4][7] Industry Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries, most showed gains, with the top performers being comprehensive and textile sectors, which rose by 6.99% and 4.41% respectively. In contrast, the communication and electronics sectors faced declines of -4.77% each. Year-to-date, energy metals and components have seen significant increases of 92.91% and 85.55% respectively [5][6] Banking Sector Insights - The central bank's report emphasized maintaining reasonable growth in financial totals and solidifying credit support. The report indicated that recent weak credit growth is influenced by various factors, including local government debt replacement and the structural evolution of the economy. The central bank aims to keep financial totals, including credit and bond financing, growing steadily [14][15] - The central bank plans to enhance support for technology finance, which is a key focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan. This includes optimizing monetary policy tools to support technological innovation and ensuring that banks maintain reasonable net interest margins to facilitate continued support for the real economy [15][17] Investment Recommendations - The banking sector is expected to attract investment due to high dividend yields, with recommendations to focus on state-owned banks and potential valuation recovery opportunities in joint-stock and regional banks. Specific banks highlighted include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and others [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector [13]. Core Insights - The banking index accelerated its rise this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and ChiNext indices, with a relative return of 2.8% and 4.7% respectively [9]. - Non-bank deposits have seen a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 770 billion yuan, attributed to high capital market activity [8][36]. - The report highlights that the four major banks have announced early dividend distributions, expected to attract more allocation from institutional investors [2][9]. Summary by Sections Banking Index Performance - The banking index rose by 1.7% this week, with individual stocks like Agricultural Bank of China leading the gains, reaching new highs [9][16]. - H-shares of banks have seen a continuous increase in holdings since October, indicating a growing interest from southbound funds [2][9]. Credit and Deposit Trends - In October, new social financing totaled 816.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 595.9 billion yuan, with the month-end balance growth rate dropping to 8.5% [6][36]. - New RMB loans in October amounted to 220 billion yuan, down 280 billion yuan year-on-year, with a month-end balance growth rate of 6.5% [7][38]. - Both household and corporate deposits have decreased year-on-year, while non-bank deposits have increased, reflecting a shift in deposit behavior [8][55]. Market Dynamics - The average dividend yield for the six major banks' A-shares has decreased to 3.73%, with a spread of 191 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield [18][22]. - The report suggests monitoring convertible bonds of banks as their stock prices approach redemption thresholds, indicating potential trading opportunities [24][10].