Core Viewpoints - The mid-term dividend rush in the banking sector is nearing its end but is not yet finished, potentially extending until the end of November [4][11][26] - The four major banks have announced mid-term dividends earlier this year compared to last year, with the record date for dividends set for mid-December, which is nearly one month earlier than last year [7][11] - The recent rise in the banking sector is primarily driven by changes in market investment style, with mid-term dividends acting as a catalyst [4][11][26] Investment Strategy Post-Dividend Rush - After the mid-term dividend rush, the banking sector may experience short-term fluctuations, but it is unlikely that the overall trend has ended [5][14][26] - There are expected investment opportunities in the banking sector before the main spring rally is identified, suggesting that investors should overlook short-term volatility [5][16][26] - The demand for insurance funds and the need for asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment make stable bank stocks attractive [5][16][26] Stock Selection Recommendations - Focus on high-dividend, fundamentally strong stocks in the short term, while also considering quality stocks for potential upside [6][26] - Recommended stocks include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Merchants Bank for their stability, as well as Ningbo Bank and Chongqing Bank for their upward momentum [6][26] - Low-valuation banks such as Changsha Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank are also suggested for consideration [6][26] Market Performance Insights - The banking index has shown a cumulative increase of 7.7% from October 14 to November 14, 2025, with individual banks like ICBC and ABC showing significant gains [11][26] - The cumulative gains of the four major banks from December 2024 were 12.5%, 11.0%, 10.2%, and 10.0%, respectively, indicating a strong performance leading into the new year [7][11] Fundamental Analysis - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to stabilize, with net interest margins showing signs of improvement [23][26] - The asset quality of listed banks is at its best level in recent years, with retail non-performing loans gradually being cleared [23][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that listed banks have sold approximately 2 trillion yuan in bonds to realize floating profits from their available-for-sale (AC) accounts in the first three quarters of 2025 [13] - It is estimated that in Q4 2025, listed banks will need to sell about 900 billion yuan in bonds to support non-interest income [10] - The cumulative floating profit of listed banks' AC accounts is approximately 3.3 trillion yuan as of the end of H1 2025, accounting for 58.3% of the total revenue for the year 2024 [30] Summary by Sections Investment Growth - Since 2024, the investment growth rate of listed banks' AC accounts has consistently lagged behind the growth rate of financial investments, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% in Q3 2025, which is 4.28 percentage points lower than that of financial investments [13][15] - The growth rates for different types of banks from Q2 2023 to Q2 2025 are as follows: state-owned banks 14.7%, joint-stock banks 2.8%, city commercial banks 9.7%, and rural commercial banks -3.8% [13] Bond Selling and Profit Realization - The report estimates that the floating profit realization ratio for listed banks' AC accounts in the first three quarters of 2025 is about 3.06%, with a bond selling scale of approximately 2.04 trillion yuan [36] - The selling proportions for different bank types are: state-owned banks 2.26%, joint-stock banks 5.29%, city commercial banks 5.57%, and rural commercial banks 9.65%, with rural commercial banks showing the highest selling intensity [36] Financial Performance - The floating profit from the sale of bonds in the first three quarters of 2025 is estimated to be 1,078 billion yuan, which represents 2.50% of the total revenue, an increase of 1.59 percentage points compared to 2024 [22][25] - The breakdown of floating profit realization ratios by bank type is as follows: state-owned banks 2.24%, joint-stock banks 2.44%, city commercial banks 3.79%, and rural commercial banks 5.52% [22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bottom-line allocation to large state-owned banks, with beneficiaries including Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [6] - Core allocations should focus on leading comprehensive banks such as China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and Industrial Bank [6] - Flexible allocations can be made to banks like Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [6]

Market Overview - The rural commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 1.94% on November 17, with Jiangyin Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03, down 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13202.0, down 0.11% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Key stocks in the rural commercial bank sector showed the following closing prices and changes: - Zijin Bank: 2.88, down 0.69% - Wuxi Bank: 6.17, down 1.12% - Qingnong Bank: 3.22, down 1.23% - Sunong Bank: 5.26, down 1.31% - Ruifeng Bank: 5.61, down 1.41% - Zhangjiagang Bank: 4.60, down 1.50% - Changshu Bank: 7.12, down 1.52% - Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank: 6.84, down 2.15% - Hunan Rural Commercial Bank: 8.92, down 2.41% - Jiangyin Bank: 4.87, down 2.79% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The rural commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 7.09 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 69.16 million yuan [1] - The following table summarizes the capital flow for individual stocks: - Su Nong Bank: Institutional net outflow of 37.41 million yuan, retail net outflow of 23.52 million yuan - Wuxi Bank: Institutional net inflow of 20.36 million yuan, retail net outflow of 16.42 million yuan - Qingnong Bank: Institutional net inflow of 8.88 million yuan, retail net outflow of 4.44 million yuan - Zhangjiagang Bank: Institutional net inflow of 0.09 million yuan, retail net outflow of 4.14 million yuan - Zijin Bank: Institutional net outflow of 2.25 million yuan, retail net inflow of 1.99 million yuan - Hunan Rural Commercial Bank: Institutional net outflow of 3.01 million yuan, retail net outflow of 5.89 million yuan - Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank: Institutional net outflow of 3.03 million yuan, retail net outflow of 3.84 million yuan - Jiangyin Bank: Institutional net outflow of 4.77 million yuan, retail net outflow of 10.49 million yuan - Ruifeng Bank: Institutional net outflow of 7.96 million yuan, retail net inflow of 3.60 million yuan - Changshu Bank: Institutional net outflow of 38.61 million yuan, retail net inflow of 44.61 million yuan [2]

Macro Strategy - Fixed asset investment in China showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -1.70% for the first ten months of 2025, worsening from -0.50% in September. Key components such as infrastructure investment and manufacturing also experienced declines, with infrastructure down by 1.83 percentage points and manufacturing down by 1.30 percentage points. Real estate development investment saw a significant drop of -14.70% compared to -13.90% in September [2][4][5] Stock Market Overview - A-share indices experienced narrow fluctuations and slight declines from November 10 to November 14, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% and the ChiNext Index down by 3.01%. The market is currently in a "slow bull" phase, with expectations of continued wide fluctuations and gradual upward movement in November [3][4][7] Industry Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries, most showed gains, with the top performers being comprehensive and textile sectors, which rose by 6.99% and 4.41% respectively. In contrast, the communication and electronics sectors faced declines of -4.77% each. Year-to-date, energy metals and components have seen significant increases of 92.91% and 85.55% respectively [5][6] Banking Sector Insights - The central bank's report emphasized maintaining reasonable growth in financial totals and solidifying credit support. The report indicated that recent weak credit growth is influenced by various factors, including local government debt replacement and the structural evolution of the economy. The central bank aims to keep financial totals, including credit and bond financing, growing steadily [14][15] - The central bank plans to enhance support for technology finance, which is a key focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan. This includes optimizing monetary policy tools to support technological innovation and ensuring that banks maintain reasonable net interest margins to facilitate continued support for the real economy [15][17] Investment Recommendations - The banking sector is expected to attract investment due to high dividend yields, with recommendations to focus on state-owned banks and potential valuation recovery opportunities in joint-stock and regional banks. Specific banks highlighted include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and others [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector [13]. Core Insights - The banking index accelerated its rise this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and ChiNext indices, with a relative return of 2.8% and 4.7% respectively [9]. - Non-bank deposits have seen a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 770 billion yuan, attributed to high capital market activity [8][36]. - The report highlights that the four major banks have announced early dividend distributions, expected to attract more allocation from institutional investors [2][9]. Summary by Sections Banking Index Performance - The banking index rose by 1.7% this week, with individual stocks like Agricultural Bank of China leading the gains, reaching new highs [9][16]. - H-shares of banks have seen a continuous increase in holdings since October, indicating a growing interest from southbound funds [2][9]. Credit and Deposit Trends - In October, new social financing totaled 816.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 595.9 billion yuan, with the month-end balance growth rate dropping to 8.5% [6][36]. - New RMB loans in October amounted to 220 billion yuan, down 280 billion yuan year-on-year, with a month-end balance growth rate of 6.5% [7][38]. - Both household and corporate deposits have decreased year-on-year, while non-bank deposits have increased, reflecting a shift in deposit behavior [8][55]. Market Dynamics - The average dividend yield for the six major banks' A-shares has decreased to 3.73%, with a spread of 191 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield [18][22]. - The report suggests monitoring convertible bonds of banks as their stock prices approach redemption thresholds, indicating potential trading opportunities [24][10].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a decline in fiscal support year-on-year, with M1 growth peaking and then receding [1][3] - The report highlights a decrease in credit volume, with October RMB loan growth at 6.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 0.12 percentage points month-on-month, and a new loan addition of 220 billion yuan, which is 280 billion yuan less than the previous year [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply-demand balance" in the credit market, noting that weak demand in the household sector, particularly for short-term loans, is a significant factor [2] Group 2 - M1 and M2 growth rates fell by 1 percentage point and 0.2 percentage points respectively in October, with M1 at 6.2% and M2 at 8.2% [3] - The report suggests that the decline in M1 growth is attributed to a booming capital market, leading to a shift of deposits from residents and enterprises to non-bank deposits [3] - The investment recommendation remains focused on the banking sector, highlighting that the long-term investment value of banks continues to be strong, with a suggestion to focus on state-owned banks and quality regional banks [4][9] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed analysis of the banking sector's performance, indicating that the Shenyin & Wanguo Bank Index rose by 1.70% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.78 percentage points [8] - It notes that the overall market performance for the week saw major indices decline, with the CSI 300 down by 1.08% and the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% [8] - The report also includes a forecast for key companies, with EPS and PE ratios provided for several banks, indicating a positive outlook for banks like Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a continued slowdown in social financing and a shift of deposits towards wealth management products, indicating a need for observation regarding the recovery of resident confidence and corporate operational activity [5][6] - The report notes that the credit growth is slowing down, with new RMB loans added in October amounting to 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, reflecting seasonal demand factors and constraints on credit expansion [3][4] - Government bonds remain the main contributor to social financing growth, with new government bonds issued in October at 489.3 billion yuan, marking the lowest monthly level for the year [4] Summary by Sections Credit Market Analysis - In October, the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, and the balance growth rate was 6.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from September [3] - The report indicates that corporate loans increased by 220 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily supported by a 331.2 billion yuan increase in bills, while residential borrowing intentions decreased [3][4] Social Financing Trends - In October, social financing increased by 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, with a stock growth rate of 8.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from September [4] - The report emphasizes that while social financing growth has been declining since July, the overall downward trend has been limited, with government bonds continuing to play a significant role [4] Deposit and Liquidity Dynamics - The M2 money supply grew by 8.2% year-on-year, while M1 grew by 6.2%, indicating a shift towards demand deposits [5] - There is a notable trend of deposits moving from residents to non-bank financial institutions, with a significant increase of 770 billion yuan in non-bank deposits, suggesting a migration of funds towards wealth management products [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite the ongoing slowdown in credit growth and social financing, the retail risk for listed banks remains manageable, supported by robust provisioning and stable dividend policies [6] - It recommends increasing allocations to the banking sector, particularly state-owned banks, which are seen as offering value relative to risk-free rates, highlighting specific banks such as CITIC Bank and others as beneficiaries [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of relative outperformance compared to market benchmarks [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a cautious optimism regarding the banking sector's performance in Q4 2025, driven by stabilizing interest margins and improving fundamentals despite external uncertainties [3][4]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate spread to support net interest margins, with a focus on effective monetary policy transmission [9][11]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report identifies two main investment lines: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with stable fundamentals, including targets like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), and Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy) [4]. 2. Large state-owned banks with solid defensive value, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated) and Agricultural Bank of China (601288, Not Rated) [4]. Banking Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the banking industry, noting a stabilization in interest margins and a cautious approach to monetary policy, with a focus on cross-cycle adjustments to enhance macroeconomic governance [9][11]. - It also mentions the need for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to address risks in small financial institutions, suggesting that mergers and restructuring may accelerate [11]. Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions - The report indicates that the monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with a focus on maintaining reasonable growth in financial aggregates and credit [9][10]. - It highlights that the credit growth rate is expected to decline marginally, with a projected loan growth rate of 6.6% in Q3 2025 [9]. Interest Rate Dynamics - The report stresses the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate spread, with specific guidelines for banks to avoid issuing loans at rates lower than government bond yields [9][11]. - It notes that as of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for listed banks has stabilized, benefiting from a significant reduction in funding costs [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector as of Q4 2025 [5][21]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the growth of social financing remains under pressure, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in October 2025, which is a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to August [8][9]. - Credit growth is weak, with a notable reliance on bill financing to compensate for the decline in traditional loans [13][14]. - The report suggests that the banking sector is expected to show relative strength due to stabilizing interest margins and positive fundamental changes [21][22]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit - In October 2025, social financing increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with a total increment of 815 billion yuan, which is 597 billion yuan less than the previous year [9][10]. - The total amount of RMB loans decreased by 201 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 3.166 billion yuan, indicating a seasonal dip in credit [8][9]. - Government bond issuance saw a year-on-year decrease of 560.2 billion yuan, further weakening the support for social financing [10][11]. - Direct corporate financing increased by 189.4 billion yuan, with bond financing up by 148.2 billion yuan and stock financing up by 41.2 billion yuan [10][11]. Loan Structure - Total RMB loans grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with new loans amounting to 220 billion yuan, which is 280 billion yuan less than the previous year [13][14]. - Household loans saw a significant decline, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans both under pressure, leading to a year-on-year decrease of 5.156 billion yuan [13][14]. - Corporate loans primarily relied on bill discounting, which increased by 331.2 billion yuan year-on-year, while general loans saw a notable decrease [14][15]. Monetary Supply - M1 and M2 growth rates showed marginal declines, with M1 growing by 6.2% and M2 by 8.2% year-on-year [18][19]. - In October 2025, new RMB deposits totaled 610 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100 billion yuan, despite a significant drop in household deposits [18][20]. - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, indicating a shift away from traditional household savings [18][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality small and medium-sized banks, with specific buy ratings for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Hangzhou Bank [21][22]. - It also suggests considering state-owned banks with stable fundamentals, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China, which are currently unrated [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the banking sector, but it provides detailed insights into dividend yields and distribution processes, which can inform investment decisions. Core Insights - The report outlines the latest dividend yields and mid-term dividend processes for A and H shares of listed banks, emphasizing the importance of accurately calculating dynamic dividend yields to avoid discrepancies across periods [1][2]. - It details the two processes for mid-term dividends following the 2023 revision of the regulatory guidelines, highlighting the conventional and simplified processes for implementing mid-term dividends [2]. - The report provides a comprehensive overview of key dates related to dividend distribution for both A and H shares, including the importance of purchasing shares before the ex-dividend date to qualify for dividends [3][4]. Summary by Sections Dynamic Dividend Yield Calculation - A simplified yet accurate method for calculating dynamic dividend yield is introduced, defined as "rolling 12-month EPS * cash dividend rate / share price," which helps avoid issues related to overlapping or missing annual and mid-term dividends [1]. - The report calculates the cash dividend rate using a standardized approach across different banks, resulting in a clear comparison of dividend yields as of November 13, 2025 [1]. Mid-Term Dividend Processes - The report explains the two processes for mid-term dividends: the conventional process requiring shareholder approval and a simplified process allowing for quicker implementation [2]. - The simplified process is designed to enhance flexibility for companies in distributing mid-term dividends, thereby improving shareholder returns [2]. Dividend Distribution Key Dates - For A shares, investors must purchase shares before the ex-dividend date to receive dividends on the same day, while H shares typically see a delay of about one month for dividend payments [3][4]. - The report outlines the differences in the dividend distribution timeline between A and H shares, emphasizing the need for investors to be aware of these timelines to maximize their returns [3][4]. Mid-Term Dividend Progress - As of November 13, 2025, 31 A-share banks have confirmed mid-term dividends, while 11 H-share banks have also confirmed their dividend distributions [9][11]. - The report categorizes banks based on their dividend status, detailing those that have implemented dividends, those that are pending, and those that have opted not to distribute dividends [9][10][11]. - It highlights that the end of 2025 and early 2026 is expected to be a peak period for mid-term dividend distributions, suggesting potential investment opportunities for dividend-seeking investors [11].