Core Viewpoint - The rural commercial bank sector experienced a slight increase of 0.34% on November 12, with Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.36% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank was 7.07, with an increase of 1.29% and a trading volume of 786,800 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 560 million yuan [1] - Zhangjiagang Bank closed at 4.70, up 0.86%, with a trading volume of 364,600 shares and a transaction value of 171 million yuan [1] - Wuxi Bank's closing price was 6.30, reflecting an increase of 0.80%, with a trading volume of 156,400 shares and a transaction value of approximately 98.55 million yuan [1] - Su Nong Bank closed at 5.38, up 0.37%, with a trading volume of 291,500 shares and a transaction value of 157 million yuan [1] - Ruifeng Bank's closing price was 5.68, with a 0.35% increase, trading 132,800 shares for a total value of approximately 7.55 million yuan [1] - Zijin Bank closed at 2.89, up 0.35%, with a trading volume of 578,600 shares and a transaction value of 167 million yuan [1] - Qingnong Bank closed at 3.28, reflecting a 0.31% increase, with a trading volume of 896,200 shares and a transaction value of 294 million yuan [1] - Jiangyin Bank's closing price was 5.05, unchanged, with a trading volume of 419,400 shares and a transaction value of 212 million yuan [1] - Changshu Bank closed at 7.25, unchanged, with a trading volume of 330,700 shares and a transaction value of 241 million yuan [1] - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank closed at 9.04, down 0.33%, with a trading volume of 147,500 shares and a transaction value of 134 million yuan [1] Group 2: Fund Flow Analysis - The rural commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 26.19 million yuan from main funds, while speculative funds experienced a net inflow of 34.43 million yuan, and retail investors had a net outflow of 8.24 million yuan [1]

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen a strong performance in bank stocks, with Agricultural Bank leading the gains, rising over 3% [1] - Major banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China also reached historical highs [1] Summary by Category Stock Performance - Agricultural Bank: Increased by 3.13%, total market value at 299.59 billion, year-to-date increase of 67.50% [2] - Bank of China: Increased by 2.29%, total market value at 187.21 billion, year-to-date increase of 10.15% [2] - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank: Increased by 1.86%, total market value at 8.07 billion, year-to-date increase of 23.17% [2] - Industrial and Commercial Bank: Increased by 1.59%, total market value at 295.46 billion, year-to-date increase of 24.83% [2] - Postal Savings Bank: Increased by 1.37%, total market value at 70.98 billion, year-to-date increase of 9.16% [2] - Construction Bank: Increased by 1.36%, total market value at 252.97 billion, year-to-date increase of 15.18% [2] - Transportation Bank: Increased by 1.35%, total market value at 66.18 billion, year-to-date increase of 1.43% [2] - Lanzhou Bank: Increased by 1.23%, total market value at 1.40 billion, year-to-date increase of 4.12% [2] - Minsheng Bank: Increased by 0.99%, total market value at 17.86 billion, year-to-date increase of 3.24% [2] - Shanghai Bank: Increased by 0.99%, total market value at 14.54 billion, year-to-date increase of 17.80% [2] - Yuanxi Bank: Increased by 0.96%, total market value at 1.38 billion, year-to-date increase of 10.50% [2] - Sunong Bank: Increased by 0.93%, total market value at 1.09 billion, year-to-date increase of 17.92% [2] - Changsha Bank: Increased by 0.90%, total market value at 4.05 billion, year-to-date increase of 20.86% [2] - Jiangsu Bank: Increased by 0.90%, total market value at 20.55 billion, year-to-date increase of 19.80% [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen a rise in bank stocks, with notable increases in shares of Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Agricultural Bank, both rising over 2% [1] - Agricultural Bank has reached a historical high, with its total market capitalization approaching 3 trillion yuan [1] Summary by Category Stock Performance - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077) increased by 2.29%, with a total market capitalization of 81.1 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 23.69% [2] - Agricultural Bank (601288) rose by 2.17%, reaching a market capitalization of 2,967.9 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 65.94% [2] - Other banks such as Chongqing Bank (601963), CITIC Bank (601998), and Jiangsu Bank (600919) also saw increases of over 1% [2] Market Capitalization - The total market capitalization of Agricultural Bank is nearing 3 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone [1] - Other banks like China Bank (601988) and Postal Savings Bank (601658) have market capitalizations of 1,852.7 billion yuan and 708.6 billion yuan, respectively [2] Year-to-Date Performance - The year-to-date performance of various banks shows significant growth, with Agricultural Bank leading at 65.94%, followed by Chongqing Bank at 29.62% and Jiangsu Bank at 20.22% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trend of deposit non-bankization, which is leading to a marginal decline in liquidity indicators for banks. This trend is particularly pronounced among large banks, with a notable increase in the proportion of non-bank deposits [12][16] - The liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and net stable funding ratio (NSFR) are critical indicators for banks, and the report provides quantitative assessments of how deposit non-bankization impacts these metrics. The effects are manageable for major banks, with LCR expected to remain above 120% even under significant conversion scenarios [4][34] Summary by Sections 1. Deposit Non-Bankization and Liquidity Management - The process of deposit non-bankization is intensifying the demand for banks to manage liquidity indicators more stringently. Since May 2025, the growth rate of personal fixed deposits has been declining, with large banks showing a decrease in monthly increments compared to the same period in 2024 [12][16] - The report quantifies the impact of deposit non-bankization on LCR and NSFR for major banks, indicating that even with a 70% conversion of personal fixed deposits to non-bank deposits, the LCR for most large banks is expected to remain above 120% [4][34] 2. Liquidity Indicator Management - The management of LCR focuses on maintaining liquidity asset reserves, while NSFR management emphasizes improving the liability structure. Issuing long-term interbank certificates of deposit is highlighted as an effective method to optimize these liquidity indicators [5][22] - The report details how the conversion of personal fixed deposits to non-bank deposits affects various liquidity risk indicators, with specific calculations provided for LCR and NSFR under different conversion scenarios [18][23] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a tiered investment strategy: - Core holdings should focus on large state-owned banks, benefiting from institutions like Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - Core allocations should include leading comprehensive banks such as China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank - Flexible allocations can target regional banks like Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Bank [6][19]

Core Insights - The rural commercial bank sector experienced a slight increase of 0.01% on November 11, with Zhangjiagang Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.76, down 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.0, down 1.03% [1] Stock Performance - Zhangjiagang Bank (002839) closed at 4.66, up 1.08% with a trading volume of 305,100 shares and a transaction value of 1.42 billion [1] - Su Nong Bank (603323) closed at 5.36, up 0.94% with a trading volume of 200,500 shares and a transaction value of 107 million [1] - Jiangyin Bank (002807) closed at 5.05, up 0.80% with a trading volume of 394,000 shares and a transaction value of 1.98 billion [1] - Wuxi Bank (600908) closed at 6.25, up 0.64% with a trading volume of 137,500 shares and a transaction value of 85.68 million [1] - Qingnong Commercial Bank (002958) and Changshu Bank (601128) remained unchanged at 3.27 and 7.25 respectively [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The rural commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 140 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 79.48 million [1] - Zhangjiagang Bank had a net inflow of 6.31 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 4.63 million from retail investors [2] - Wuxi Bank experienced a net inflow of 2.46 million from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 3.07 million [2] - Qingnong Commercial Bank faced a significant net outflow of 23.40 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 20.09 million [2] - Yunnan Agricultural Bank (601077) had the highest net outflow of 87.93 million from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 47.76 million [2]

Core Insights - The agricultural commercial bank sector experienced a rise of 0.92% on November 10, with Shanghai Agricultural Commercial Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4018.6, up 0.53%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13427.61, up 0.18% [1] Sector Performance - Shanghai Agricultural Commercial Bank (601825) closed at 60.6, with a gain of 2.48% and a trading volume of 291,000 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 263 million yuan [1] - Changshu Bank (601128) closed at 7.25, up 0.97%, with a trading volume of 290,900 shares and a transaction value of 210 million yuan [1] - Ruifeng Bank (601528) closed at 5.67, up 0.53%, with a trading volume of 144,300 shares and a transaction value of 81.76 million yuan [1] - Zhangjiagang Bank (002839) closed at 4.61, up 0.44%, with a trading volume of 129,300 shares and a transaction value of 135 million yuan [1] - Yuanxi Bank (600908) closed at 6.21, up 0.32%, with a trading volume of 117,800 shares and a transaction value of 72.99 million yuan [1] - Shinan Bank (603323) closed at 5.31, up 0.19%, with a trading volume of 165,600 shares and a transaction value of 87.91 million yuan [1] - Zijin Bank (601860) closed at 2.88, unchanged, with a trading volume of 366,300 shares and a transaction value of 105 million yuan [1] - Qingnong Commercial Bank (002958) closed at 3.27, unchanged, with a trading volume of 557,400 shares and a transaction value of 182 million yuan [1] - Yunnan Agricultural Commercial Bank (601077) closed at 7.00, down 0.14%, with a trading volume of 633,700 shares and a transaction value of 444 million yuan [1] - Jiangyin Bank (002807) closed at 5.01, down 0.20%, with a trading volume of 391,700 shares and a transaction value of 196 million yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The agricultural commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 210 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 118 million yuan [1] - The main fund flow for Shanghai Agricultural Commercial Bank was a net inflow of 9.12 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 197,440 yuan [2] - Ruifeng Bank had a main fund net inflow of 4.43 million yuan, but retail funds experienced a net outflow of 763.71 million yuan [2] - Zhangjiagang Bank had a significant main fund net outflow of 16.33 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 1.77 million yuan [2] - Changshu Bank experienced a main fund net outflow of 21.87 million yuan, with retail funds seeing a net inflow of 26.42 million yuan [2] - Qingnong Commercial Bank had a main fund net outflow of 32.17 million yuan, while retail funds had a net inflow of 20.39 million yuan [2] - Yunnan Agricultural Commercial Bank faced a substantial main fund net outflow of 143 million yuan, but retail funds had a net inflow of 59.38 million yuan [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth and development of inclusive finance in China, particularly focusing on small and micro enterprises and rural areas, with a notable annual growth rate of over 20% in inclusive micro loans during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2] - As of June 2025, the balance of inclusive micro loans reached 36 trillion yuan, which is 2.3 times that of the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with a decrease in interest rates by 2 percentage points [1][2] - The average interest rate for newly issued inclusive micro loans was 3.48% as of June 2025, reflecting a decrease of 66 basis points year-on-year [1][2] Group 1: Digital Empowerment - Digital technology has been a key driver for the development of inclusive finance, with banks utilizing big data and AI to enhance loan approval efficiency and reduce financing costs [2][7] - The market structure among banks is changing, with large commercial banks holding a 45.11% share of inclusive micro loans, while rural financial institutions have seen a decline in their market share [2][3] - The average growth rate of inclusive micro loans has been slowing down, with a decrease from 30.9% in 2020 to 12.3% by mid-2025 [2][3] Group 2: Performance of Listed Banks - Among listed banks, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Beijing Bank reported the highest growth rates in inclusive micro loans at 18.50%, 17.30%, and 17.27% respectively [3][4] - In contrast, some banks, including Shanghai Bank and Zhengzhou Bank, experienced negative growth rates of -3.97% and -2.06% [3][4] - The performance of different banks varies significantly, with state-owned banks generally showing stronger growth in inclusive micro loans compared to smaller banks [3][4] Group 3: Interest Rates and Risk Management - The interest rates for newly issued inclusive micro loans have decreased across various banks, with the highest rate at 4.20% and the lowest at 2.94% [7][8] - The gap in interest rates between large and small banks is narrowing, with some large banks' rates aligning closely with those of smaller banks [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of risk management in the inclusive finance sector, with several banks focusing on improving asset quality and managing non-performing loans [9][10]

Summary of China Regional Banks 3Q25 Review Industry Overview - The report focuses on the performance of China Regional Banks (CRBs) in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) - Overall profits for CRBs grew by 6% year-over-year (y/y), a decrease from 9% y/y in 2Q25, primarily due to a decline in non-fee income [1][3] Core Earnings and Profitability - CRBs demonstrated a core earnings recovery of 12% y/y, outperforming large banks which only saw a 1% y/y increase in core earnings [1][3] - Net Interest Income (NII) for CRBs grew by an average of 7% y/y, improving from 5% y/y in 2Q25, while large banks averaged only 0.4% growth [3][7] - Fee income increased by 16% y/y, reversing a contraction trend, supported by agency fee growth as market sentiment improved [3][7] - Non-fee income saw a significant decline of 32% y/y, primarily due to fair value losses in bond investments [3][7] Asset Quality - Asset quality remained stable, with the average Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio declining by 1 basis point (bps) q/q to 0.96% in 3Q25 [1][21] - The Special Mention Loan (SML) ratio increased by 3 bps q/q, indicating some pressure on asset quality compared to large banks [21] - The NPL coverage ratio decreased slightly by 1 bps q/q, suggesting a cautious approach to provision releases [21] Capital and Growth Constraints - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio for CRBs decreased by 11 bps q/q, raising concerns about growth constraints due to lower capital levels [3][21] - CRBs reported a 2% q/q loan growth, consistent with industry trends, but with significant variations among banks [20] - Deposit growth was flat on average, with BoNB experiencing the highest contraction at -1.4% q/q [20] Investment Recommendations - Top picks among regional banks include BoNB and BoNJ, both showing double-digit growth in core earnings and stable asset quality [1][3] - BoBJ's performance was the weakest, with a profit contraction of 2% y/y and a low CET1 ratio, although its high dividend yield of 5.8% provides some downside protection [1][3] - Caution is advised regarding CSRCB until clearer signs of improvement in SME asset quality are observed [1][3] Valuation Insights - The report includes a valuation comparison of various regional banks, highlighting differences in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and return on equity (ROE) [5] - The average P/E for CRBs is projected at 6.1 for FY25E and 5.7 for FY26E, with an average dividend yield of 5.0% for FY25E [5] Conclusion - The overall performance of China Regional Banks in 3Q25 indicates a steady recovery in core earnings, although challenges remain in non-fee income and capital levels. The investment outlook is cautiously optimistic for select banks, particularly BoNB and BoNJ, while caution is warranted for others like CSRCB and BoBJ.

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (渝农商行) in the first three quarters of 2025 shows a slowdown in revenue growth compared to local peers, raising concerns about its operational outlook [2][3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the bank reported operating revenue of 6,916.9 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.10%, and a net profit of 3,078.0 million, up 2.14% [1]. - For the first nine months of 2025, the bank's operating revenue reached 21,657.7 million, reflecting a growth of 0.67%, while the net profit was 10,924.9 million, an increase of 3.32% [1][3]. - Interest income for the first three quarters was 347.59 million, down 6.49%, while interest expenses decreased by 9.62% to 169.09 million, indicating that the growth in net interest income was primarily due to reduced expenses rather than increased income [4]. Comparison with Peers - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank's revenue growth is significantly lagging behind that of Chongqing Bank, which reported a 10.40% increase in revenue for the same period [2]. Investment Income - The bank's investment income for the first three quarters was 34.95 million, down 8.10%, contrasting with many domestic banks that reported substantial increases in investment income [4]. Cost Management - The bank's business and management expenses for the first three quarters were 58.92 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.84%, with other general and administrative expenses decreasing by 9.17% [5]. Asset Quality - As of Q3 2025, the bank's non-performing loan balance was 87.11 million, an increase of 2.92 million from the end of 2024, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.12%, down 0.06 percentage points [5]. Leadership Changes - The bank has experienced significant leadership changes, with the chairman resigning in October 2024 and the current acting chairman, Sui Jun, serving in this role for nearly a year, which exceeds the regulatory limit of six months for acting positions [7][9][10].

Core Points - The banking sector experienced a slight decline today, with a drop of 0.16% overall [1] - Qilu Bank's stock closed at 6.08 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.46% [1] - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank's stock closed at 7.01 yuan, down by 1.13% [1] - Suzhou Bank's stock closed at 8.33 yuan, with a decline of 1.07% [1] - Qilu Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Suzhou Bank were the largest decliners in the banking sector today [1]