$\mu_{\rm B}=\mu_{\rm B}$. 作者 | 董 静 编辑 | 硬 AI 得益于AI投资热潮的火爆，工业富联股价屡屡创下历史新高，年初迄今累计涨幅超200%，高盛最新的研报，或将给这个"万亿巨头"注入新的"兴奋剂"！ 9月18日，高盛在最新研报中称，预计工业富联将从2025年三季度开始进入强劲的盈利增长周期，主要受益于AI服务器市场份额提升、模块化AI数据中心建设以 及智能手机新产品周期等多重驱动因素。 该行分析师Verena Jeng等在研报中指出， 工业富联在机架级AI服务器领域的先发优势将推动其在AI基础设施市场获得更大份额，母公司鸿海与东元电机的合作 伙伴关系，将加速为客户部署AI数据中心，再加上网络设备升级以及智能手机新品周期 ，都成为驱动驱动盈利增长的重要因素。 基于此，高盛上调2025-2027年净利润预测3%/3%/4%，比彭博一致预期高出4%-14%，显示该行对公司前景明显更为乐观。 这种垂直整合的能力使特斯拉成为目前唯一能将"车+软件+网络平台"三者统一打包的企业。高盛认为，这主要受益于AI服务器市场份额提升、模块化AI数据中心建设、网络设备升级 以及智能手机新品周期等四 ...

Group 1 - Industrial Fulian executed a block trade on September 19, with a transaction volume of 69,900 shares and a transaction amount of 4.0486 million yuan, at a price of 57.92 yuan, which represents a discount of 12.38% compared to the closing price of the day [2][3] - The closing price of Industrial Fulian on the same day was 66.10 yuan, reflecting an increase of 2.70%, with a turnover rate of 1.19% and a total transaction amount of 15.781 billion yuan, alongside a net inflow of main funds amounting to 60.9061 million yuan [2][3] - Over the past five days, the stock has accumulated a rise of 6.79%, while the total net outflow of funds reached 9.65 billion yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The latest margin financing balance for the stock is 7.124 billion yuan, with an increase of 15.557 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth rate of 0.22% [3] - In terms of institutional ratings, two institutions provided ratings for the stock in the past five days, with Huatai Securities setting the highest target price at 76.00 yuan in a report published on September 15 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant volatility, with various sectors showing mixed performance amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][21][41]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.16% [3]. - A notable trading volume of 3.17 trillion yuan was recorded, followed by a decrease to 811.3 billion yuan the next day, indicating a contraction in market activity [4]. Sector Analysis - The energy metals, education, tourism and hotel, coal, and electronic chemicals sectors saw gains, while the electric machinery, automotive services, pharmaceutical commerce, diversified finance, and automotive parts sectors experienced declines [6]. - Solid-state battery concept stocks surged, with Ganfeng Lithium hitting the daily limit, and other related stocks like Xiamen Tungsten and Tengyuan Cobalt rising over 7% [11]. Consumer Electronics - The iPhone 17 series launched today, generating significant consumer interest, with long queues at Apple stores in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, indicating strong demand for the standard version [10]. Tourism Sector - The tourism and hotel sectors performed well, with several tourism stocks hitting the daily limit. Ctrip reported a 45% year-on-year increase in cross-province travel orders for the upcoming National Day holiday [15]. Currency and Economic Policy - The RMB has shown a complex upward trend against the USD, with the offshore RMB breaking the 7.1 mark for the first time since November 2024, reflecting a 0.34% increase since September [26][27]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB is partly attributed to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a phase of easing in the US-China tariff conflict [30]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile as it digests the implications of the Fed's interest rate cut, which is viewed as a preventive measure rather than a response to a crisis [34]. - The A-share market is likely to benefit from a favorable global liquidity environment, with foreign capital showing increased interest in Chinese assets [42].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price over the past 250 trading days. It is used to identify stocks or indices that are approaching or have surpassed their historical highs, which can serve as indicators of market trends and hotspots[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The formula for the 250-day new high distance is: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ represents the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value indicating the percentage drop[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying stocks or indices with strong momentum and can be used to monitor market trends and leading sectors[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Screening Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying stocks that not only achieve new highs but also exhibit stable price paths and consistent momentum. It incorporates factors such as analyst attention, relative strength, and price stability to refine the selection of high-momentum stocks[27][29]. - **Model Construction Process**: The screening criteria include: - **Analyst Attention**: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - **Relative Strength**: 250-day price change in the top 20% of the market - **Price Stability**: Stocks are ranked based on the following metrics: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Ratio of price displacement to the total price path - **New High Continuity**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - **Trend Continuity**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days The top 50 stocks based on these criteria are selected as stable new high stocks[27][29]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes the temporal characteristics of momentum and identifies stocks with smoother price paths, which are less likely to experience extreme volatility[27][29]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite: 1.63% - Shenzhen Component: 1.09% - CSI 300: 1.08% - CSI 500: 1.24% - CSI 1000: 1.54% - CSI 2000: 1.91% - ChiNext Index: 1.79% - STAR 50 Index: 1.28%[12][13][34] 2. Stable New High Stock Screening Model - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Industrial Fulian, Giant Network, and Shengyi Electronics. - **Sector Distribution**: - Technology: 18 stocks (e.g., Electronics) - Manufacturing: 15 stocks (e.g., Machinery)[30][35] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative position of the latest closing price to the highest price in the past 250 trading days, indicating momentum strength[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The formula is: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor effectively captures momentum and is widely used in trend-following strategies[11][18]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the stability of a stock's price movement by comparing the displacement of the price path to its total length[27]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ Price\ Path\ Smoothness = \frac{Price\ Displacement}{Total\ Price\ Path} $ Where: - Price Displacement is the straight-line distance between the starting and ending prices - Total Price Path is the cumulative sum of absolute daily price changes over a given period[27]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Stocks with smoother price paths tend to exhibit stronger and more sustainable momentum[27]. 3. Factor Name: New High Continuity - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the consistency of a stock's ability to maintain new highs over time[29]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ New\ High\ Continuity = Average\ (250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance\ Over\ Past\ 120\ Days) $ This factor calculates the mean of the 250-day new high distance over a rolling 120-day window[29]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor highlights stocks with persistent upward trends, making them attractive for momentum-based strategies[29]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite: 1.63% - Shenzhen Component: 1.09% - CSI 300: 1.08% - CSI 500: 1.24% - CSI 1000: 1.54% - CSI 2000: 1.91% - ChiNext Index: 1.79% - STAR 50 Index: 1.28%[12][13][34] 2. Price Path Smoothness and New High Continuity - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Industrial Fulian, Giant Network, and Shengyi Electronics. - **Sector Distribution**: - Technology: 18 stocks (e.g., Electronics) - Manufacturing: 15 stocks (e.g., Machinery)[30][35]

Group 1 - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect today reached 326.39 billion, with Industrial Fulian and Zhongji Xuchuang leading in trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock connect respectively [1][2] - The energy metal sector saw the highest net inflow of funds, while the computer sector experienced the largest net outflow [4][6] - The top ten stocks by trading volume included Industrial Fulian, Han's Laser, and Haiguang Information for the Shanghai Stock Connect, and Zhongji Xuchuang, CATL, and Xinyi Technology for the Shenzhen Stock Connect [3][4] Group 2 - The Nikkei ETF (513520) saw a significant increase in trading volume, up 92% compared to the previous trading day [9][10] - The top ten ETFs by trading volume were led by the Hong Kong Securities ETF, followed by the Hang Seng Technology ETF [9] - The four major index futures contracts saw both long and short positions increase, with a notable increase in short positions for the IF and IC contracts [11] Group 3 - The solid-state battery concept stock Ganfeng Lithium received substantial institutional buying of 430 million, along with significant purchases from Shenzhen Stock Connect and a leading retail investor [13][14] - The robotics concept stock Jinfatech faced heavy selling from a leading retail investor, with a net outflow of 553 million [14] - The overall activity of institutional and retail investors showed a decline, with notable selling in the robotics sector and buying in the energy metal sector [12][14]

9月19日，工业富联大宗交易成交6.99万股，成交额404.86万元，占当日总成交额的0.03%，成交价57.92元，较市场收盘价66.1元折价12.38%。 | 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( * ) 买入营业部 | | | 卖出营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-09-19 | | | | 中国银河证券股份 | 中国银河证券股份 | | | | 工业富联 | 601138 | 57.92 404.86 6.99 | 有限公司北京苏州 | 有限公司北京苏州 | | | | | | | 44 -- 1 + | (+ == + == = | | ...

Market Overview - On September 19, the consumer electronics sector rose by 1.23%, with Suzhou Tianmai leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.3%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [1] Top Gainers in Consumer Electronics - Suzhou Tianmai (301626) closed at 137.79, up 11.55% with a trading volume of 57,400 shares and a transaction value of 783 million yuan [1] - Dongni Electronics (603595) closed at 26.16, up 6.73% with a trading volume of 303,100 shares [1] - Hanzhi Technology (301491) closed at 71.26, up 4.92% with a trading volume of 75,000 shares [1] - Other notable gainers include Tianjian Co. (301383), Luxshare Precision (002475), and Huqin Technology (603296) with respective increases of 4.59%, 4.33%, and 3.87% [1] Top Losers in Consumer Electronics - Kosen Technology (603626) saw a significant drop of 10.00%, closing at 15.93 with a trading volume of 1,977,100 shares and a transaction value of 3.394 billion yuan [2] - Changying Precision (300115) fell by 8.90%, closing at 31.43 with a transaction value of 6.661 billion yuan [2] - Other notable declines include Hongxi Technology (871857) and Tonglian Precision (688210) with decreases of 7.98% and 7.62% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The consumer electronics sector experienced a net outflow of 1.852 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.91 billion yuan [2] - Notable net inflows from retail investors were observed in Luxshare Precision (002475) with 1.141 billion yuan, and Huqin Technology (603296) with 130 million yuan [3] - Conversely, Dongni Electronics (603595) and Suzhou Tianmai (301626) experienced net outflows from institutional and retail investors [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced increased volatility on September 19, particularly in the ChiNext index, which initially rose over 1% before quickly declining [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index slightly decreased by 0.03%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices saw minor increases of 0.32% and 0.16%, respectively [3][5] Notable Stocks - Luxshare Precision (002475) and Industrial Fulian (601138) saw significant gains, with Industrial Fulian reaching a historical high and a market capitalization exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [1][5] - Tianpu Co., Ltd. (605255) achieved a 13th consecutive limit-up, closing at 91.96 yuan per share [1][6] Industry Performance - Among the major industry sectors, automotive, real estate, pharmaceuticals, retail, and light manufacturing experienced the largest declines, while coal, non-ferrous metals, and defense industries led the gains [5] - In concept sectors, military and lithium mining concepts showed strong performance, while sectors like reducers and PEEK materials faced declines [5] New Listings - The newly listed company, Shichang Co., Ltd., saw its stock price surge by 353.58% during trading [11] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market exhibited narrow fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising over 1% at one point [1][14] - However, Shankai Holdings faced a significant drop of over 60% after being flagged by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for "highly concentrated shareholding" [1][17]

Summary of Foxconn Industrial Internet (FII) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Foxconn Industrial Internet (FII) - **Ticker**: 601138.SS - **Target Price**: Rmb77.2 - **Recommendation**: Buy Key Industry Insights - **AI Servers Market**: FII is expected to gain market share in AI servers due to strong R&D and execution, positioning it as a leader in delivering next-generation rack-level AI servers [1][5] - **Modularized AI Data Centers**: Partnership with TECO is anticipated to accelerate the deployment of AI data centers, supporting FII's AI server shipments [1][5] - **Networking Equipment**: Increased demand for high-speed connections is expected to drive up shipments of networking equipment and enhance dollar content through product mix upgrades towards 400G/800G [1][5] - **Smartphone Market**: The smartphone market is entering a peak season with strong new model ramp-up expected in September [1][5] Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Growth**: FII's revenues are projected to increase significantly, with net income estimates raised by 3% for 2025, 3% for 2026, and 4% for 2027 due to higher AI infrastructure demand [1][5][8] - **Operating Expenses**: Operating expenses (opex) are expected to remain disciplined, leading to a lower opex ratio of 1.9% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026, and 1.2% in 2027, compared to 2.3% in 2Q25 [7][8] - **Earnings Revision**: The net income for 2025E is revised to Rmb33.632 billion, reflecting a 3% increase from previous estimates [8][9] Comparative Analysis - **Valuation Metrics**: The target P/E multiple has been raised to 29.4x from 26.9x, reflecting a positive market re-rating on AI servers supply chain and stronger fundamentals [9][15] - **Peer Comparison**: FII's projected 2026E trading P/E is 24.5, compared to peers like Hon Hai at 13.3 and Gigabyte at 10.2, indicating a premium valuation based on growth prospects [11] Risks and Considerations - **Demand Risks**: Potential risks include worse-than-expected demand and profit from the AI server business, as well as competition affecting iPhone component business expansion [15] - **Capacity Ramp-Up**: Slower-than-expected capacity ramp-up in new factories could impact growth [15] - **iPhone Shipments**: Lower-than-expected iPhone shipments could affect FII's revenue, given its role as a component supplier [15] Conclusion - FII is positioned for strong growth driven by advancements in AI servers and networking equipment, with disciplined cost management supporting profitability. The company is recommended as a Buy with a target price reflecting significant upside potential.

格隆汇9月19日｜立讯精密涨超7%，工业富联涨超2%，成交额均超100亿元。 ...