富士康工业互联网股份有限公司（以下简称"工业富联"）预计2025年归属于母公司所有者的净利润将达 到351亿元至357亿元，较2024年大幅增长51%至54%。业绩预告显示，在云计算与通信网络设备的协同 爆发中，AI服务器与高速交换机业务成为工业富联业绩增长的核心引擎。 据同花顺iFind数据，截至2月2日，A股共63家消费电子相关上市公司披露2025年业绩预告。其中，除1 家业绩不确定外，22家业绩预喜（包含预增、略增、扭亏），其余40家则预减、略减或亏损。 梳理公告可知，当前消费电子行业呈现两极分化态势，产业"冷与热"交织。一方面，因传统业务端竞争 激烈，不少企业业绩依旧承压；另一方面，行业的积极因素也在持续涌现，AI眼镜、新能源、机器人 等新兴赛道的崛起，成为驱动不少消费电子企业盈利的核心因素。 "回顾2025年，消费电子行业的增长韧性，源于技术革新与跨界拓展的共振。"巨丰投顾高级投资顾问丁 臻宇对记者说。 AI正为消费电子产业注入新动能。例如，立讯精密工业股份有限公司（以下简称"立讯精密"）预计， 2025年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润165.18亿元至171.86亿元，同比增长23.59%至28. ...

基金分析专题报告(深度) 证券研究报告 数说公募主动权益基金四季报 ——规模/份额双降、周期/金融配置权重上升 王子薇 分析师SAC执业编号：S1130524010001 王聃聃 分析师SAC执业编号：S1130521100001 2026/2/2 主动权益基金2025年四季报总结 ◼ 基金市场概况：2025年四季度A股在经历了近一年的上涨趋势后开始横盘震荡，宽基指数涨跌互现。风格上，大、中盘价值指数均显著跑赢成长，小 盘成长与价值收益差距不大，大盘价值领跑，反映机构资金在进攻与防守之间切换、风险暴露选择性收敛的同步推进；行业指数方面，四季度申万31 个行业除医药生物、美容护理等9个行业外，其余各行业指数均取得正收益，其中，资源和军工表现较好，医药整体偏弱。主动权益基金规模和份额 下降，发行数量和发行规模小幅提升。 ◼ 基金持仓情况：权益基金平均股票仓位小幅收缩，为88.05%；港股仓位也有所下降。重仓股板块配置方面，权益基金集中增持周期品方向，主要为 稳增长政策托底下宏观预期边际改善、顺周期盈利弹性重新获得资金定价，以及年末时点资金对组合确定性与波动控制要求提升的合力结果，机构在 周期与金融板块抬升配比，同 ...

A股复盘 | 参与历史 / 2026.02.02 先来一张图片护眼！ | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 创业板指 | 中证A500 | 中证全指 | A股平均股价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4017.04 | 13830.1 | 3264.44 | 5742.39 | 6094.1 | 28.77 | | -2.45% | -2.65% | -2.45% | -2.64% | -2.64% | -2.67% | | 大盘指数 | | | | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证1000 | 中证2000 | 微营服 | 科创100 | | 4604.37 | 8047.84 | 7991.94 | 3389.52 | 3701.57 | 1584.25 | | -2.17% | -3.85% | -3.19% | -2.17% | -0.89% | -4.54% | | 50指数 | | | | | | | 上证50 | 创业板50 | 北证50 | 科创50 | 深证50 | 富时中国A50 | | 2999.66 | 3432.21 | ...

Market Outlook - The overall upturn in the semiconductor industry is expected to continue into 2026, driven by AI and storage chip price increases[26] - The A-share technology sector entered a recovery phase in January 2024 and transitioned to a prosperous phase in August 2024[11] - AI is anticipated to lead the next major cycle in the electronics industry, with structural investment opportunities emerging[11] Performance Metrics - Notable stock price increases for key semiconductor companies from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, include Micron (240.1%), Lam Research (139.2%), and Intel (84.0%)[12] - A-share companies such as Industrial Fulian and Huahong Semiconductor saw stock price increases of 194% and 132%, respectively, in 2025[13] Demand Dynamics - AI infrastructure has not yet significantly boosted downstream demand, despite strong performance in AI-related sectors[39] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with storage and foundry sectors showing notable growth[22] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating, emphasizing the importance of AI and storage as key growth drivers for the semiconductor industry[1] - Investment strategies should focus on companies involved in AI chip production and semiconductor equipment, as these sectors are expected to benefit from increased demand[43] Economic Indicators - The semiconductor market is projected to grow significantly, with total sales expected to reach $774 billion by 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate of 23.2%[28] - The global semiconductor sales growth cycle is showing positive trends, particularly in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, driven by AI and storage chip demand[22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation, emphasizing an AI-driven upward economic cycle and the search for structural investment opportunities in the electronics industry [1]. Core Insights - The overall upward cycle in 2026 is expected to continue, with AI infrastructure yet to show significant demand-driving effects [4]. - The A-share technology companies are currently in an upward economic cycle, having entered a recovery phase in January 2024 and a prosperous phase in August 2024 [6][11]. - The semiconductor sector is expected to outperform the consumer electronics sector, driven by AI [11]. Industry Performance - The semiconductor and storage sectors are experiencing a cyclical recovery, with AI's focus shifting from infrastructure to connectivity and operational capacity [12]. - The report highlights significant stock price increases for various companies, such as Micron (up 240.1%), Lam Research (up 139.2%), and Intel (up 84.0%) from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [12]. - A-share technology companies like Industrial Fulian and Huahong Semiconductor have also shown substantial growth, with increases of 194% and 132%, respectively [13]. Market Dynamics - The global semiconductor market has emerged from the previous downturn, with a positive growth cycle expected to persist into 2026 [19][22]. - The report notes that the main growth drivers are AI and rising prices of storage chips, with the industry entering a comprehensive upward trend from August 2024 [26]. - The demand for AI-related products and services is anticipated to increase, particularly in the context of data interconnectivity and GPU localization [43][80]. Downstream Demand - The report indicates that while AI infrastructure remains strong, it has not yet led to a clear increase in downstream demand [39]. - The overall inventory levels in the industry are low, and the demand outlook is still weak, suggesting a cautious approach to investment [39]. AI and Semiconductor Trends - The report identifies two major directions for AI: high-speed PCB and upstream domestic AI GPUs [41]. - The demand for domestic AI GPUs is expected to grow significantly in 2026, although there remains a substantial capacity gap [80]. - The report emphasizes the importance of GPU acceleration and the anticipated explosive growth in GDDR7 demand [64].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, with notable declines in share prices across multiple sectors, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the market. Group 1: Major Stocks with Capital Outflows - Zhongji Xuchuang experienced the highest capital outflow of 3.861 billion, with a share price decline of 8.94% [1][2] - BlueFocus Media saw a capital outflow of 2.275 billion, with a decrease of 8.4% in its stock price [1][2] - Zijin Mining had an outflow of 1.891 billion, reflecting an 8.79% drop in its share price [1][2] - Industrial Fulian faced an outflow of 1.839 billion, with a 3.5% decline in stock value [1][2] - Zhaoyi Innovation reported a capital outflow of 1.673 billion, with a significant drop of 10% in its share price [1][2] Group 2: Additional Stocks with Notable Outflows - Shannon Microelectronics had an outflow of 1.520 billion, with a steep decline of 12.36% [1][2] - BYD experienced a capital outflow of 1.374 billion, with a 4.22% decrease in its stock price [1][2] - Baiwei Storage saw an outflow of 1.183 billion, with a decline of 10.35% [1][2] - Jiangbolong had an outflow of 1.150 billion, with a 10.77% drop in its share price [1][2] - Northern Rare Earth reported an outflow of 1.027 billion, with a 7.62% decline [1][2] Group 3: Other Stocks with Capital Outflows - China Aluminum faced an outflow of 1.016 billion, with a stock price decrease of 9.98% [1][2] - Tianfu Communication had an outflow of 0.977 billion, with a 4% decline in its share price [1][3] - SMIC reported an outflow of 0.953 billion, with a 4.81% drop [1][3] - iFlytek experienced an outflow of 0.797 billion, with a 4.36% decline [1][3] - Wanhua Chemical had an outflow of 0.741 billion, with an 8.68% decrease [1][3]

国海证券研报指出， 工业富联2025Q4业绩符合预期，行业高景气度持续。公司预计2025Q4实现归母净 利润126-132亿元，2025年全年实现归母净利润351-357亿元。公司核心业务订单规模与价值量同步跃 升，GB系列产品实现量产爬坡，出货量逐季攀升。基于产能扩张表现、公司市占率持续提升的乐观预 期，叠加头部CSP持续加大资本开支，认为，公司2026-207年业绩增长确定性进一步增强。维持"买 入"评级。 ...

国海证券研报指出，工业富联2025Q4业绩符合预期，行业高景气度持续。公司预计2025Q4实现归母净 利润126-132亿元，同比+56%-63%，环比+21%-27%；2025年全年实现归母净利润351-357亿元，同比 +51%-54%。公司核心业务订单规模与价值量同步跃升，GB系列产品实现量产爬坡，出货量逐季攀升。 基于产能扩张表现、公司市占率持续提升的乐观预期，叠加头部CSP持续加大资本开支，认为，公司 2026-207年业绩增长确定性进一步增强。维持"买入"评级。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **AI computing power industry**, specifically focusing on **Industrial Fulian** and **Apple** as key players in the market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Agent Demand and Market Dynamics** - The introduction of local running modes for agents, such as MultiBot, has sparked significant interest in the market, potentially accelerating the release of more powerful agent functionalities by major companies, which will increase demand for computing resources and promote growth in the edge computing and storage markets [1][3] 2. **Local Storage and Edge Computing** - MultiBot architecture emphasizes local data storage, providing zero-latency access and data control advantages, which will lead to increased demand for local storage solutions. The future may see widespread adoption of personal edge servers, significantly boosting independent incremental demand [1][4] 3. **Domestic Computing Power Development** - Domestic computing power currently lags behind international capabilities by approximately six months. However, it is expected to gradually replace foreign computing power in the local market over the long term. Performance is anticipated to be released in 2026 as production capacity issues are resolved [1][5][6] 4. **Industrial Fulian's Performance Forecast** - Industrial Fulian's 2025 performance forecast exceeds expectations, benefiting from the ramp-up of GB200 and 300 products and growth in VeriSilicon's business. The company is positioned to benefit from the AI trend as a key component of the overseas computing power chain [1][8] 5. **Apple's Financial Performance** - Apple's latest financial results surpassed expectations, driven by strong iPhone 17 sales and record revenue in Greater China. The anticipated product innovations in 2026, including new AirPods and foldable screens, are expected to contribute to growth in non-AI server business [2][9][12] 6. **AI Data Center Business Highlights** - Industrial Fulian's AI data center business, including high-speed switches and AI server assembly, saw significant revenue growth, with 800G and above high-speed switch revenue increasing over 4.5 times year-on-year. The complexity of assembly is increasing, leading to higher value per cabinet and profit margins [2][10] 7. **Global Competitive Position** - Industrial Fulian holds a unique position as the only NV chain alloy ODM assembly supplier, with a strong and stable role in the overseas computing power chain, facing no immediate threats from technological iterations [2][11] 8. **Optical Module Industry Insights** - Leading companies in the optical module sector have reported impressive 2025 performance forecasts, indicating strong downstream demand and growth in high-speed optical module shipments. Investors are advised to focus on the long-term value of leading companies in this sector [2][16] 9. **Future Trends in Optical Communication** - The optical communication industry is expected to see high downstream demand and investment in AI, with significant capital expenditures projected from major companies like Meta and Microsoft. The increasing share of silicon photonics technology is anticipated to create additional market opportunities for leading Chinese firms [2][17] 10. **Market Pricing Trends** - The fiber optic market continues to experience price increases due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with major companies managing to mitigate profit impacts despite price pressures from operators [2][18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The anticipated growth in edge computing and local storage solutions is expected to create a dual market for cloud and local storage, rather than a zero-sum scenario [1][4] - The performance of domestic computing power is expected to improve significantly by 2027, with increased demand for packaging and testing services as production returns to China [2][7]