登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 分析师：张刚 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -8% -1% 6% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 4,102.20 | 0.85 | | 深证成指 | | 14,156.27 | 0.21 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,698.68 | 0.83 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,591.65 | 0.86 | | 中证 | 500 | 8,299.06 | 0.15 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6 ...

● 本报记者 万宇 *ST松发预计2025年实现净利润24亿元-27亿元，扭亏为盈。2025年四季度，多家基金公司旗下产品增持 *ST松发或新进机构投资者名单。其中，谢书英管理的兴全合瑞在2025年四季度增持*ST松发，华夏基 金、工银瑞信基金等公司旗下产品新进该股机构投资者名单。不过，也有基金公司减持*ST松发，如博 时基金旗下产品在2025年四季度合计减持该股738.71万股。 通化东宝预计2025年实现净利润12.42亿元，也实现扭亏为盈。2025年四季度，7家基金公司旗下产品新 进通化东宝机构投资者名单。 宏和科技预计2025年实现净利润1.93亿元-2.26亿元，同比增长745%-889%。2025年四季度，6家基金公 司旗下产品新进宏和科技机构投资者名单。 佰维存储预计2025年实现净利润8.5亿元-10亿元，同比增长427.19%-520.22%。截至2025年底，共有40 家基金公司旗下产品持有佰维存储，多只产品在2025年四季度增持佰维存储。其中，兴证全球基金、永 赢基金、华商基金旗下产品当季增持佰维存储均超100万股，广发基金、汇添富基金旗下产品在2025年 四季度新进佰维存储的机构投资者 ...

Core Insights - Over 2900 A-share listed companies have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with high-performing companies attracting significant interest from fund institutions [1][2] - Notable companies with substantial profit growth include Zijin Mining, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 510-520 billion yuan, and Industrial Fulian, projected to reach 351-357 billion yuan [2][3] Company Performance - Zijin Mining is expected to see a net profit increase of 59%-62% in 2025, with 78 fund companies holding its shares, including well-known fund managers [2] - Industrial Fulian anticipates a net profit growth of 51%-54%, with 96 fund companies holding its shares, primarily managed by E Fund [3] - *ST Songfa is projected to turn a profit with a net profit of 24-27 billion yuan, attracting new institutional investors in Q4 2025 [4] - Tonghua Dongbao expects a net profit of 12.42 billion yuan, also turning a profit, with new institutional investors entering in Q4 2025 [4] - Honghe Technology forecasts a net profit of 1.93-2.26 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 745%-889%, with new institutional investors in Q4 2025 [4] - Baiwei Storage anticipates a net profit of 8.5-10 billion yuan, with 40 fund companies holding its shares and several increasing their positions in Q4 2025 [5] Market Outlook - The release of earnings forecasts and annual reports is expected to lead to a focus on companies' performance, with a potential for market stabilization and upward movement [6] - Fund institutions suggest that the market may return to a structure driven by "profit certainty + industry trends," with opportunities in core technology and manufacturing sectors [6] - External factors may create short-term pressure, but domestic policy support and a stable capital market are expected to mitigate significant downturns [7] - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on growth sectors like AI and semiconductors, as well as areas benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as new energy [7]

Group 1 - Industrial Fulian's stock price dropped by 5.09% to 52.91 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 6.948 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.65%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 1050.697 billion yuan [1] - The company, founded on March 6, 2015, and listed on June 8, 2018, is based in Longhua District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, and specializes in the design, research and development, manufacturing, and sales of various electronic devices, primarily focusing on smart manufacturing and technology services for global clients [1] - The main business revenue composition is 99.85% from 3C electronic products and 0.15% from other supplementary sources [1] Group 2 - Shan Zheng Asset Management has one fund heavily invested in Industrial Fulian, specifically the Shan Zheng Asset Management Strategy Selected Mixed A (003659), which increased its holdings by 32,500 shares in the fourth quarter, totaling 102,500 shares, representing 6.64% of the fund's net value, making it the fourth-largest holding [2] - The fund has a current scale of 56.0056 million yuan, with a year-to-date return of 4.74%, ranking 3947 out of 8873 in its category, and a one-year return of 73.56%, ranking 622 out of 8119 [2] - Since its inception, the fund has achieved a return of 96.4% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Shan Zheng Asset Management Strategy Selected Mixed A is Du Gu Nan Xun, who has been in the position for 9 years and 306 days, managing a total asset scale of 120 million yuan [3] - During the manager's tenure, the best fund return was 72.78%, while the worst return was -7.03% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, particularly in the communication equipment and internet service sectors, reflecting investor sentiment and market trends [1][2][3] Group 1: Major Stocks with Capital Outflows - Zhongji Xuchuang experienced a capital outflow of 3.07 billion, with a decline of 5.24% [2] - Xinyi Sheng saw a capital outflow of 2.33 billion, with a decline of 5.66% [2] - Liou Shares had a capital outflow of 2.07 billion, with a decline of 8.74% [2] - BlueFocus Media faced a capital outflow of 1.77 billion, with a decline of 8.88% [2] - Xinwei Communication had a capital outflow of 1.57 billion, with a decline of 9.41% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The communication equipment sector showed significant outflows, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinwei Communication leading the losses [2][3] - The internet service sector also faced notable outflows, with Liou Shares and NetEase Technology among the top affected stocks [2][3] - The cultural media sector, represented by BlueFocus Media, experienced substantial capital outflows, indicating potential investor concerns [2][3] Group 3: Additional Stocks with Notable Outflows - Industrial Fulian had a capital outflow of 1.32 billion, with a decline of 4.65% [2] - Runze Technology saw a capital outflow of 1.26 billion, with a decline of 7.24% [2] - Hunan Silver experienced a capital outflow of 0.801 billion, with a decline of 4.47% [3]

| 股票名称 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 主力资金流向 | 所属行) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中际旭创 | -6.39 | -29.81亿元 | 通信设备 | | 新易盛 | -7.36 | -24.58亿元 | 通信设备 | | 利欧股份 | -7.76 | -16.52亿元 | 互联网服 | | 蓝色光标 | -7.84 | -14.44亿元 | 文化传媒 | | 工业富联 | -4.18 | -11.05亿元 | 消费电子 | | 网宿科技 | -11.96 | -10.06亿元 | 互联网服 | | 润泽科技 | -6.2 | -9.87亿元 | 互联网服 | | 航天发展 | 5.06 | -9.18亿元 | 通信设备 | | 胜宏科技 | -3.86 | -7.40亿元 | 电子元作 | | 铜陵有色 | -1.28 | -7.35亿元 | 有色金属 | | 浙文互联 | -1.23 | -7.21亿元 | 文化传媒 | 据交易所数据显示，截至2月4日开盘一小时，主力资金流出前20的股票分别为： 中际旭创（-29.81亿元）、 新易盛（-24.58亿元）、 利欧股份 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on AI Annual Report Analysis Industry Overview - The conference focused on the analysis and outlook of AI annual reports, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, with a specific emphasis on domestic and international AI companies [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments General Market Sentiment - The period from October 31 to March is characterized as a performance vacuum, where the focus is on thematic investments rather than immediate earnings results [2][3]. - The spring market is expected to see a resurgence, with significant activity anticipated around March [3][4]. North American Companies - North American companies, particularly those involved in AI and cloud computing, have reported earnings that exceeded expectations, indicating strong capital expenditure in AI [4][6]. - Companies like Microsoft and Meta have shown robust spending on AI infrastructure, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [4][6]. - Despite some domestic companies underperforming, their stock prices have rebounded, suggesting that market sentiment is more focused on thematic trends rather than immediate earnings [5][6]. Domestic AI Companies - Domestic AI companies are experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with strong demand for AI-related products and services, despite some companies reporting earnings below expectations [6][7]. - The industry is characterized by a shortage of materials and components, which is driving prices up and creating a favorable environment for growth [6][7][10]. Future Growth Projections - There is a consensus that the growth trajectory for AI companies will continue to be strong, with expectations for significant growth in 2026 and beyond [8][9]. - Many companies are currently undervalued, trading at price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios between 15x to 20x, which presents a potential investment opportunity [8][9]. Specific Company Insights - Companies like Wan, Tianfu Communication, and others are highlighted for their potential despite recent earnings misses, as the overall industry outlook remains positive [4][6][7]. - The demand for GPUs and AI chips is expected to remain high, with domestic companies like Cambrian facing challenges but still showing potential for recovery [9][10]. Application and Innovation - The conference emphasized the importance of AI applications, particularly in gaming and media, with companies like Tencent and ByteDance leading the charge [14][15]. - The emergence of AI-driven applications is seen as a significant growth area, with expectations for increased investment and innovation in this space [14][15]. Regulatory and Market Concerns - There are concerns regarding potential regulatory impacts on the gaming industry, but these are largely viewed as unfounded and not likely to affect the overall market significantly [15][16]. - The market is currently experiencing volatility, but analysts suggest that this presents buying opportunities for fundamentally strong companies [21][22]. Additional Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring capital expenditure trends among major tech companies, as this will influence the demand for AI infrastructure and services [36][37]. - The potential for new technologies, such as diamond-based cooling materials for semiconductors, was discussed as a future growth area [24][25]. - Analysts recommend focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors, as the market continues to evolve [22][23][39].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the technology sector, particularly in AI and cloud computing, with significant capital expenditures from major players like Meta, Microsoft, and Alibaba [6][31]. Core Insights - Major tech companies are increasing capital expenditures to enhance AI capabilities, with Meta's projected spending reaching between $115 billion and $135 billion for the year [5][31]. - AI demand remains strong, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic accelerating their growth and preparing for IPOs, indicating a robust market for AI applications [4][11]. - The report highlights a shift in pricing strategies among cloud service providers, with Google Cloud and Amazon AWS raising prices for data transmission and machine learning services, marking a departure from the long-standing trend of price reductions [20][21]. Industry Frontiers - OpenAI has raised over $100 billion in funding, with a valuation of $830 billion, and is preparing for an IPO in Q4 2026 [4][11]. - Anthropic has revised its revenue projections, expecting a threefold increase in sales this year, potentially reaching $18 billion, and over $55 billion next year [11][12]. - ByteDance is set to release a new AI model in mid-February, aiming to capture a larger share of the AI market in China [12][27]. Capital Trends - Google Cloud announced a price increase for global data transmission services effective May 2026, with Amazon AWS also raising prices for its machine learning services by approximately 15% [5][20]. - Meta has secured a $6 billion long-term supply agreement with Corning for fiber optic cables, emphasizing the importance of infrastructure in AI development [21]. - Alibaba is considering increasing its investment in AI infrastructure and cloud computing from 380 billion to 480 billion yuan over the next three years [25][26]. Weekly Perspectives - The report notes that AI investments are yielding positive results for companies like Meta, with improved user engagement and advertising performance [31][32]. - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to surge, driven by the increasing need for advanced computing capabilities [32]. - The report anticipates a significant growth in the number of ASIC chips required for AI applications, projecting a boom in demand from 2026 to 2027 [32]. Industry Chain Data Updates - In December, China's smartphone market saw a significant decline in sales, with Huawei maintaining the largest market share [34]. - The PC market experienced a mixed performance, with desktop sales increasing while laptop sales declined [35].

Core Insights - The dinner hosted by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang in Taipei included key executives from major companies in the AI supply chain, highlighting the importance of collaboration in the industry [2][3] - Huang emphasized the challenges in the production of NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip, Blackwell, and indicated that the supply chain will be "extremely tight" in 2026 [3][12] - The event showcased the significant market value of the participating companies, collectively exceeding $5 trillion [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - TSMC's chairman, Wei Zhejia, confirmed that TSMC needs to work hard to meet NVIDIA's demand for wafers and CoWoS packaging capacity, with NVIDIA accounting for over 60% of TSMC's CoWoS demand in 2025 [3][4] - Major Taiwanese manufacturers like Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, and Wistron are responsible for assembling NVIDIA's AI supercomputing systems, indicating a clear division of labor within the supply chain [5] - The introduction of liquid cooling solutions by companies like Qihong Technology reflects the increasing power demands of new chips, necessitating advanced thermal management [5][6] Financial Performance - Victory Technology, a PCB manufacturer, anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a rise of 260.35% to 295.00% year-on-year, driven by high-value product orders related to AI computing [6][7] - Industrial Fulian, a subsidiary of Hon Hai, expects a net profit increase of 51% to 54% for 2025, with a notable growth in cloud service server revenue [7][8] - Companies in the optical module sector, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, are also experiencing substantial growth, with projected net profits increasing by up to 128.17% [8][9] Emerging Competitors - Domestic chip companies like Cambrian are achieving significant revenue growth, with projections indicating a 410.87% to 496.02% increase in 2025, marking their first annual profit [10][11] - The rise of domestic GPU manufacturers, such as Moer Technology and Tianxu Zhixin, reflects a shift towards local alternatives in the computing power market, driven by capital market support [11][12] - Huang's comments on the increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging solutions suggest ongoing opportunities in the semiconductor sector [12]

Group 1: Company Buybacks - Hengli Petrochemical's controlling shareholder Chen Jianhua increased holdings by 13.4474 million shares, with a total investment of 330 million yuan [1] - CATL has repurchased a total of 15.9908 million A-shares as of January 31 [2] - Guizhou Moutai has repurchased a total of 416,900 shares as of January 31, 2026 [2] - Industrial Fulian has a total repurchase fund of 247 million yuan as of January 31, 2026 [2] Group 2: Company Sell-offs - Yitian Intelligent's shareholder Chuan Dinghengyuan plans to reduce holdings by no more than 0.99% [3] - Xueda Education's shareholder Nanjing Xingnaheyuan plans to reduce holdings by no more than 0.5% [3] - Gaohua Technology's shareholder Huang Biao plans to reduce holdings by no more than 0.97% [3] - Kuaike Intelligent's director Dou Xiaoming plans to reduce holdings by no more than 0.15% [3] - Igor's directors and executives, including Zhao Nannan, plan to collectively reduce holdings by no more than 0.0878% [3] - Tailin Micro's major shareholder recently reduced holdings by 2.3213 million shares [3] - Jingce Electronics' shareholders and directors plan to reduce holdings [3] - Jindan Technology's shareholder Shouzhong Education plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3.00% [3] - Changjiang Communication's shareholders plan to collectively reduce holdings by no more than 1% [3] - Dahao Technology's shareholders plan to collectively reduce holdings by no more than 4% [3] - Tongyuan Petroleum's chairman and director plan to collectively reduce holdings by no more than 0.16% [3] - Yilun Media's director and CFO plan to reduce holdings [3] - Fuhan Micro's shareholder Jiezhi Holdings plans to reduce holdings by no more than 1.93% [3] - Aoshang's shareholder Huijia Chuangtou plans to reduce holdings by no more than 1.00% [3] - Changchun Yidong's shareholder FAW Equity Company plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% [3] - Wuxi Zhenhua's major shareholder plans to collectively reduce holdings by no more than 3.00% [3] - Jiangyan Suantuan's shareholder Ningbo Longji plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% [3] - Yilian Technology's shareholder Changjiang Changdao plans to reduce holdings by no more than 2% [3]