行业表现（申万一级） 证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 8 月 13 日 | 8 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002352.SZ | 顺丰控股 | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 600276.SH | 恒瑞医药 | | 688198.SH | 佰仁医疗 | | 600861.SH | 北京人力 | | 300395.SZ | 菲利华 | | 601138.SH | 工业富联 | | 002938.SZ | 鹏鼎控股 | | 688615.SH | 合合信息 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250813 ■重点关注 【电子】AI 算力产业链更新报告*苏凌瑶。海内外 AI 应用热度不减，下游 生态应用或迎来加速闭环。而在国产侧，诸多产业方正共同打造 AI 算力基 座。我们认为，伴随国内先进制程良率攀升，配套供应体系或迎来加速放量。 【电子】工业富联*苏凌瑶。公司发布 2025 年半年报，公司产品结构持续优 化，经营成效稳步提升。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Industrial Fulian (601138.SH) is rated as a "buy" due to several positive factors supporting its revenue growth [2] Group 2 - The GB200 series is ramping up production with improving yield rates, which injects momentum into the company's revenue growth [2] - Revenue from precision components is steadily increasing, and the rapid deployment of 800G high-speed switches is contributing positively [2] - Significant capital expenditure increases from North American cloud vendors are supporting AI computing power demand, with ASIC expected to open new growth opportunities [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the rapid growth of new business segments, while the ICT business faces temporary pressure, with a focus on the long-term potential of AI business for AsiaInfo Technology [3][4] - In the first half of 2025, AsiaInfo Technology reported revenue of approximately 2.598 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2%, primarily due to pressure on the ICT business [3] - The AI delivery business saw a remarkable increase, with revenue of 26 million RMB, a year-on-year growth of 7600%, and orders reaching 70 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7800% [3][4] Group 2 - New Yangfeng's half-year performance showed steady growth, with revenue of 9.398 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.63%, and net profit of 951 million RMB, up 28.98% [7][9] - The sales of new-type fertilizers significantly contributed to the performance, with revenue from phosphate fertilizers reaching 2.311 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 39.34% [9][10] - The company is expanding its capital expenditure in various projects, including phosphate mining and new energy initiatives, to enhance its product structure and market presence [13][14] Group 3 - Industrial Fulian's half-year report indicated revenue of 360.76 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 35.58%, and net profit of 12.113 billion RMB, up 38.61% [17][18] - The AI server revenue grew over 60%, with the GB200 series achieving production ramp-up, reflecting strong demand in the AI infrastructure market [19][20] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing capital expenditure of major cloud service providers, particularly in AI cloud infrastructure [18][19] Group 4 - Hua Hong Semiconductor reported Q2 revenue of 566 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, with a gross margin of 10.9% [23][24] - The company anticipates Q3 revenue between 620-640 million USD, indicating positive growth prospects despite depreciation pressures from new factory operations [25][26] - The semiconductor market is expected to recover, benefiting from increased wafer shipments and strategic partnerships [26] Group 5 - WanHua Chemical's half-year revenue was 90.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, with net profit of 6.12 billion RMB, down 25.1% [31][32] - The company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements to mitigate the impact of declining product margins [34] - WanHua is expanding its polyurethane production capacity, with several new projects underway to strengthen its market position [36][37]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and rose, with the Shanghai TMT Index increasing by 1.2% to 2077.09 points and a trading volume of 90.995 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai TMT Index has risen by 5.85% in the past month, 8.93% in the past three months, and 9.65% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai TMT Index consists of 50 listed companies in the TMT sector with good scale and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of TMT-related companies in the Shanghai market [1] Group 2 - The top ten weights in the Shanghai TMT Index are: Industrial Fulian (3.51%), Jingwang Electronics (3.17%), Shengyi Technology (2.61%), Cambrian (2.5%), Hengsheng Electronics (2.37%), Shiyun Circuit (2.3%), Wealth Trend (2.23%), Chipone (2.21%), Fenghuo Communication (2.17%), and Hengtong Optic-Electric (2.1%) [1] - The Shanghai TMT Index is fully composed of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with an 80.98% weight in Information Technology and 19.02% in Communication Services [1] Group 3 - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made under special circumstances [2] - Companies that are delisted or undergo mergers, acquisitions, or splits are handled according to calculation and maintenance guidelines [2]

工业富联（601138.SH）2025 年半年报点评 2Q25 业绩高增，AI 产品快速放量 2025 年 08 月 12 日 ➢ 事件：8 月 11 日，工业富联发布 2025 年半年度业绩报告，2Q25 公司实现 营业收入 2003 亿元，yoy+35.9%，qoq+24.9%；归母净利润 68.8 亿元,略超 预告中值（68.3 亿元），yoy+51.1%，qoq+31.5%。半年度经营情况良好，AI 业务带动公司业务高速增长。 ➢ 业绩快速增长，盈利能力稳健。工业富联 1H25 实现营业收入 3607 亿元， 同比增长 35.58%；归母净利润 121.13 亿元，同比增长 38.61%。2Q25 公司归 母净利润 68.8 亿元，同比增幅达到约 51.1%；扣非归母净利润为 67.65 亿元， 同比增幅 58.8%。公司盈利能力稳健，业绩弹性初步体现，2Q25 实现毛利率 6.50%，qoq-0.23pct，净利率 3.43%，qoq+0.16pct。 ➢ AI 与云计算业务成业绩主引擎，结构优化释放长期潜力。2Q25 公司整体服 务器营收增长超 50%，云服务商服务器营收同比增长超 150%，AI ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.50% on August 12, with 18 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the communication and electronics sectors, which increased by 2.24% and 1.88% respectively [1] - The defense and steel sectors saw the largest declines, with decreases of 1.03% and 0.83% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The main funds in the two markets experienced a net outflow of 30.123 billion yuan, with 7 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The electronics sector had the highest net inflow of funds, totaling 6.425 billion yuan, while the communication sector followed with a net inflow of 2.678 billion yuan [1] - The defense industry faced the largest net outflow, amounting to 7.052 billion yuan, followed by the non-ferrous metals sector with a net outflow of 6.483 billion yuan [1] Electronics Sector Performance - The electronics sector increased by 1.88%, with a total net inflow of 6.425 billion yuan, and out of 466 stocks in this sector, 276 rose while 184 fell [2] - Notably, 5 stocks hit the daily limit up, and 219 stocks experienced net inflows, with 28 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2] - The top three stocks by net inflow were Cambrian (19.77 billion yuan), Furi Electronics (6.41 billion yuan), and Industrial Fulian (5.25 billion yuan) [2] Electronics Sector Inflow and Outflow Rankings - The top inflow stocks included Cambrian (20.00% increase), Furi Electronics (10.03% increase), and Industrial Fulian (9.24% increase) [3] - The top outflow stocks were Xingsen Technology (-3.49% decrease), Jingwang Electronics (-4.21% decrease), and Dongxin Co., Ltd. (2.54% increase) [4]

证 券 研 究 报 告 工业富联（601138）2025 年半年报点评 强推（维持） 当前价：36.35 元 华创证券研究所 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 609,135 | 767,554 | 949,776 | 1,196,683 | | 同比增速(%) | 27.9% | 26.0% | 23.7% | 26.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 23,216 | 33,929 | 45,125 | 56,692 | | 同比增速(%) | 10.3% | 46.1% | 33.0% | 25.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.17 | 1.71 | 2.27 | 2.85 | | 市盈率(倍) | 31 | 21 | 16 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 8 月 11 日收盘价 公司研究 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its cloud computing business and robust performance in communication and network equipment, leading to an optimistic outlook [3][8] - The revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 increased by 35.58% and 38.61% year-on-year, respectively, indicating strong operational performance [8] - The report anticipates significant growth in AI infrastructure investments, which will drive demand for high-end AI servers [8] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 813.99 billion, RMB 1,309.97 billion, and RMB 1,624.18 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 316.19 billion, RMB 574.03 billion, and RMB 658.98 billion for the same years [5][7] - The report indicates a PE ratio of 22.8, 12.6, and 11.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [5][7] Performance Metrics - The company achieved a gross margin of 6.60% in the first half of 2025, with a slight decrease compared to the previous year [8] - The report highlights a significant increase in server revenue, with AI server revenue growing over 60% year-on-year [8] - The company’s EBITDA is projected to grow from RMB 42.74 billion in 2025 to RMB 86.01 billion in 2027, reflecting strong operational efficiency [7][12]

Core Viewpoint - The AI computing power and chip concept stocks have shown significant movement, with major stocks reaching historical highs, driven by favorable government policies and increasing demand for AI infrastructure [1][5][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 12, A-shares saw a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.50%, Shenzhen Component up 0.53%, and ChiNext Index up 1.24% [1]. - AI computing power concept stocks surged, with Cambricon Technologies hitting a 20% limit up and reaching a historical high, while Industrial Fulian rose over 9% to a new high [1][5]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Fujian Communication Administration issued a three-year action plan for high-quality development of new information infrastructure, aiming for a computing power scale of 9 EFLOPS by 2027 [1][7]. - The Sichuan Communication Administration and other departments released a plan to quadruple the computing power scale of telecom enterprises by the end of 2027 compared to 2024 [8]. Group 3: Company Performance - Industrial Fulian reported over 50% growth in overall server revenue in Q2, with AI server revenue increasing by over 60% year-on-year [6]. - Cambricon Technologies' market capitalization surpassed 350 billion yuan, while Industrial Fulian's market cap approached 790 billion yuan [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on the extended opportunities within the AI computing power supply chain, as global demand for AI infrastructure continues to grow [9][10]. - The PCB market related to AI is expected to see significant growth, with projections of reaching $5.6 billion and $10 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively [10][11].

国海证券研报指出，工业富联中报业绩超预告中位数，GB200量产爬坡。公司预计北美四大云服务商 2025年合计资本开支同比实现高速增长，其中AI云基础设施投入占比将显著提升，带动高端AI服务器 需求激增。公司通过强化产业链协同韧性，进一步深化与北美、亚太顶尖科技企业的战略协作。展望未 来，公司将持续聚焦AI发展主线，不断拓宽与主权、云服务商、企业等各类别客户的合作基础，积极 把握AI+机器人等新兴领域机遇，持续强化产品创新能力，持续引领行业AI基础设施技术演进。公司是 全球领先的云计算和通信网络产品和服务提供商，将受益于全球AI算力的需求增长。公司核心业务订 单规模与价值量同步跃升，GB200系列产品实现量产爬坡，良率持续改善，出货量逐季攀升。维持"买 入"评级。 ...