PICC(601319)
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基于新业务恢复增长、利率敏感性减弱和审慎的精算假设角度:从友邦保险经验比较,看好中资保险估值有望提升
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2026-02-25 07:32
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) based on the recovery of new business growth, reduced interest rate sensitivity, and prudent actuarial assumptions [5][30]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the valuation of Chinese insurance companies is expected to improve, drawing comparisons with AIA Group's strong performance since its listing. AIA's embedded value (PEV) multiple was approximately 1.48 times at the end of 2025, indicating high growth potential and lower sensitivity to interest rates, which could benefit the valuation of Chinese insurers [5][6]. - The new business value (NBV) of Chinese life insurance companies is recovering rapidly, driven by improved distribution channels and product offerings, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [5][13]. - Effective asset-liability duration management and the transformation towards participating insurance have reduced the sensitivity of Chinese insurers' values to interest rates, which is favorable for valuation [15][17]. - Prudent adjustments to actuarial assumptions have brought Chinese insurers' assumptions closer to those of AIA, enhancing the credibility of their valuations [22][30]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AIA's Performance and Valuation - AIA has shown strong stock performance since its listing, with a PEV multiple of approximately 1.48 times at the end of 2025, indicating a favorable outlook for valuation improvements in Chinese insurers [5][6]. Section 2: Recovery of New Business and Growth Indicators - Chinese life insurance companies are experiencing a rapid recovery in new business growth, with NBV for AIA increasing by 18% year-on-year to USD 4.314 billion in the first three quarters of 2025. The NBV for 2024 was approximately 113% of the 2019 figure, indicating strong growth potential [8][13]. - Major Chinese insurers are expected to see NBV growth of 30%-80% in 2025, with positive growth in CSM for China Life and Ping An in the first half of 2025 [13][18]. Section 3: Interest Rate Sensitivity and Actuarial Assumptions - The sensitivity of Chinese insurers' values to interest rates has decreased due to effective duration management and a successful shift towards participating insurance. For instance, AIA's NBV only decreased by 1.9% with a 50 basis point drop in interest rates [15][17]. - Chinese insurers have made prudent adjustments to their actuarial assumptions, aligning them more closely with AIA's, which enhances the reliability of their valuations. For example, China Life's investment return assumption has been adjusted to 4% from 5% [22][30].
内险股集体走高 中国平安尾盘涨近3% 资产端投资收益有望推动险企盈利改善
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-02-24 15:13
中国人保 中国人寿 中国平安 中国人民保险 集团 中国人寿 中国平安-R 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 8.77 -0.11 -1.24% 1.69% 1.13% 0.56% 0.00% 0.56% 1.13% 1.69% 8.73 8.78 8.83 8.88 8.93 8.98 9.03 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 64万 129万 193万 内险股集体走高,截至发稿,众安在线(06060)涨4.53%,报16.63港元;中国人保(601319)(01339)涨 4.15%,报7.03港元;中国平安(601318)(02318)涨2.91%,报72.6港元;中国人寿(601628)(02628)涨 2.8%,报34.5港元。 华源证券指出,股票运用总体余额为3.73万亿元,同比+53.8%,预计一方面系25年以来二级权益市场行 情较优,资产公允价值上升,另一方面系保险资金响应落实中长期资金入市政策、加大权益资产配置。 在保费增速较高+权益市场"慢牛"预期下,预计26年保险资金运用余额有望维持两位数增长、权益占比 有望延续抬升,资产端投资收益有望推动保险公司 ...
中国保险业 2025 财年预览- 寿险新业务价值稳健,财险综合成本率改善;尽管四季度面临挑战,盈利与每股派息依然稳固-China Insurance FY25E Preview Life NBV Robust PC CoR Improved Earnings DPS Solid Despite Challenges in 4Q25
2026-02-24 14:19
Vi e w p o i n t | 13 Feb 2026 18:25:31 ET │ 50 pages China Insurance FY25E Preview: Life NBV Robust; P&C CoR Improved; Earnings & DPS Solid Despite Challenges in 4Q25 CITI'S TAKE HK/China insurers' FY25E reporting season begins with AIA, Pru and ZhongAn on 19-March. For FY25E, we expect China life insurers to book very robust NBV LFL growth, with the top 3 CL/PA/CPIC at 38%/32%/28%, while we anticipate 35% for NCI (actual basis), 12% for Taiping Life and 70% for PICC Life. For the top 3 P&C insurers, we fo ...
中国人保:近年来公司坚持“长期投资、价值投资、审慎投资”理念,实现了较好的投资收益
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2026-02-24 12:10
证券日报网讯 2月24日,中国人保(601319)在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示,近年来,公司坚 持"长期投资、价值投资、审慎投资"理念,实现了较好的投资收益。下一步,公司将继续坚定不移贯彻 落实国家关于中长期资金入市的意见,优化资产配置结构,进一步加大权益市场投资比例。公司将重点 关注长期稳健增长的蓝筹品种,并深入挖掘科技创新、消费升级等具有广阔发展空间的优质赛道,加强 投研能力建设,在助力资本市场长期稳健发展的同时,努力稳定投资收益。 ...
上市险企2025业绩前瞻:Q4净利或受投资波动影响,人身险NBV有望高增
Huan Qiu Wang· 2026-02-24 05:27
【环球网保险综合报道】2025年,A股上市险企股价呈现出上行趋势,保险Ⅱ(申万)(801194.SI)全年涨幅达 到26.42%。行情向好的背后,行业基本面持续稳健。 据国家金融监督管理总局披露,2025年,保险业原保险保费收入突破6.12万亿元,首次站上6万亿台阶,较上年 同期增长7.4%。2025年前三季度,A股五大上市险企(中国人寿、新华保险、中国平安、中国太保、中国人 保)合计实现归母净利润4260亿元,同比增长33.5%,刷新历史纪录。 东吴证券研报提到,在当前"存款搬家"背景下,储蓄型保险产品需求旺盛,继续看好2026年负债端增长,预计 银保渠道仍是拉动增长的主动力,同时预计2026年分红险新单保费占比进一步提升,负债成本持续优化。 在中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜看来,2026年,银保渠道"战略C位"将持续强化,市场份额向头部集中。 随着网点扩张赋能增长,头部险企通过深化银行客户综合金融服务,预计2026年银保渠道仍将是新单增长主引 擎。与此同时,个险渠道将继续朝着专业化、职业化方向深度转型,中介渠道"清虚提质"加速整合。 他进一步指出,在产品方面,分红险成为市场主流,其"固收+浮动"特性契合当 ...
非银金融行业跟踪周报保险行业总资产突破41万亿;券商再融资持续推进
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-24 00:30
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 保险行业总资产突破 41 万亿;券商再融资持 续推进 2026 年 02 月 23 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书:S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书:S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 2025/2/24 2025/6/22 2025/10/18 2026/2/13 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《西南证券拟定增 60 亿元,券商定增 或全面放开》 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026-02-14 《天风证券处罚靴子落地,轻装上阵 有望更好的规范化经营》 2026-02-14 东吴证券研究所 1 / 18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现:最近 5 个交易日(2026 年 02 月 09 日-2026 年 02 月 13 日)非银金融各子板块均跑输沪深 300 指数。证券行业下跌 1.04 ...
中国人民保险集团(01339.HK):2月23日南向资金增持1307.2万股
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-23 19:29
中国人民保险集团股份有限公司是一家主要提供保险产品的控股公司。该公司及其子公司主要从事财产 保险、健康保险、人寿保险、再保险、香港保险、养老保险及经营保险业务。财产保险业务主要包括为 公司及个人提供财产保险产品,包括机动车辆险、农业保险、财产保险和责任保险。健康保险业务主要 包括健康和医疗保险产品。人寿保险业务主要包括人寿保险产品,包括分红、两全、年金及万能人寿保 险产品等。香港保险业务包括在中国香港的财产保险业务。养老保险业务包括企业年金和职业年金等业 务。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理,由AI算法生成(网信算备310104345710301240019号),不构成 投资建议。 证券之星消息,2月23日南向资金增持1307.2万股中国人民保险集团(01339.HK)。近5个交易日中,获 南向资金减持的有3天,累计净减持291.23万股。近20个交易日中,获南向资金减持的有16天,累计净 减持4541.18万股。截至目前,南向资金持有中国人民保险集团(01339.HK)25.12亿股,占公司已发行 普通股的28.77%。 ...
从超过500万到低于50万,险企董监高收入差距咋那么大
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-23 12:52
"千万年薪"的传说渐远,分化悬殊的现实凸显。据北京商报记者不完全统计,截至2月23日,共有113家险企在披露的2025年四季度偿付能力报告 中公示了董监高薪酬,但在业绩整体向好的态势下,险企董监高薪酬并没有想象般"水涨船高"。 统计数据显示,董监高年薪超过500万元的公司由2024年的5家降至2025年的4家,且不同险企董监高薪酬差距明显,最高年薪突破500万元,最低 者不足50万元,差距达10倍以上,而曾经被热议的"千万年薪"已难觅踪迹。 险企董监高带头降薪 金融监管总局节前公布的数据显示,2025年全年,保险公司原保险保费收入6.1万亿元,同比增长7.4%;新增保单件数1168亿件,同比增长 12.6%。此外,2025年,受益于"报行合一"、资本市场向好等因素,行业经营情况可圈可点,已经公布数据的非上市险企中,约九成机构实现盈 利。 不过,在业绩整体向好的态势下,险企董监高薪酬延续了近两年的下降趋势。据北京商报记者统计,2023年同期,有10家保险公司董监高最高年 薪超500万元,到2024年只剩5家,2025年再次减少至4家,包括中美联泰大都会人寿、中宏人寿、美亚保险等。其他险企董监高最高薪酬多数位 于 ...
非银金融行业投资策略周报:开年政策及资金延续向好,看好板块补涨机遇-20260223
GF SECURITIES· 2026-02-23 07:54
Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, driven by favorable policies and continued capital inflow, suggesting potential for sector rebound [1][6]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the sector, indicating expected strong performance relative to the market [2]. Market Performance - As of February 14, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.39%. The CSI 300 Index saw a modest gain of 0.36% [12]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.3% decrease week-on-week [6]. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The report indicates that listed insurance companies are expected to maintain high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest margins. The insurance fund utilization scale reached 38.5 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, up 15.7% year-on-year [18]. - The report suggests that the upcoming spring market rally may drive better-than-expected performance for insurance companies in Q1 2026, supported by a stable long-term interest rate and an upward trend in the equity market [18]. Securities Sector - The report discusses the recent optimization measures for refinancing announced by the three major exchanges, which aim to enhance financing efficiency and support high-quality enterprises [19]. - The new refinancing rules are expected to create structural opportunities for securities firms, shifting the focus from compliance to the ability to identify and serve quality clients [20]. - The report emphasizes that the optimization of refinancing will lead to a more differentiated regulatory system, benefiting quality companies while tightening controls on weaker entities [22]. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed valuations for several key companies in the sector, including: - China Ping An (601318.SH) with a target price of 85.17 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) with a target price of 94.21 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - China Life (601628.SH) with a target price of 55.47 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - The report also highlights the expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for these companies, indicating a positive outlook for their financial performance in 2025 and 2026 [7].
人保集团股价上涨 板块走强及资金流入推动
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2026-02-23 05:42
业绩改善预期:根据光大证券、华创证券等机构发布的研报,公司2025年前三季度归母净利润同比增长 28.9%,其中第三季度单季增速达48.7%,财险综合成本率(COR)优化至96.1%,承保盈利改善。投资 端表现稳健:截至2025年三季度末,公司未年化总投资收益率为5.4%,同比提升0.8个百分点,权益市 场回暖对投资收益形成正向贡献。 保险板块表现突出:截至2026年2月23日,港股保险板块整体上涨1.87%,形成板块联动效应,对成分 股形成支撑。恒生指数上涨:当日恒生指数上涨2.09%,市场风险偏好提升,资金向金融板块轮动。 资金面与技术面 均线突破:股价突破5日、10日及20日均线(分别位于6.768港元、6.752港元、6.696港元),收盘价 (6.97港元)接近布林带上轨(6.973港元),短期动能增强。资金流入:主力资金净流入655.25万港 元,占总成交额比例较高,显示机构资金参与度提升。 业绩经营情况 经济观察网 中国人民保险集团(01339.HK)今日股价上涨主要受所属板块表现强劲及市场情绪回暖推 动。 板块变化情况 行业与风险分析 A/H股溢价收窄:当日A股中国人保(601319.SH)下 ...