格隆汇1月13日｜A股市场保险股集体走强，其中，中国人寿涨超4%，新华保险、中国人保涨超3%，中 国太保、中国平安涨近3%。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ | 代码 | 名称 | . | 涨幅%↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601628 | 中国人寿 | 1 | 4.41 | 14590亿 | 13.45 | | 601336 | 新华保险 | + | 3.76 | 2591亿 | 19.18 | | 601319 | 中国人保 | 1 | 3.27 | 4475亿 | 13.07 | | 601601 | 中国太保 | 安 | 2.97 | 4496亿 | 11.50 | | 601318 | 中国平安 | 1 | 2.77 | 12570亿 | 1.49 | ...

1月13日金融一线消息，保险板块短线拉升，中国人保、新华保险、中国人寿、中国平安均涨超2%。 责任编辑：王馨茹 1月13日金融一线消息，保险板块短线拉升，中国人保、新华保险、中国人寿、中国平安均涨超2%。 责任编辑：王馨茹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of China's non-auto insurance sector, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 10% over the past decade, has led to high costs and irrational competition, prompting regulatory measures to reshape the market dynamics towards risk pricing and service capability [2][3][12]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Challenges - Non-auto insurance premiums accounted for over 50% of total premiums, with a significant increase in the average annual growth rate of 14.4% from 2014 to 2024, compared to 5.2% for auto insurance [3][12]. - Major insurance companies, including PICC, Ping An, and Taiping, have reported that their average non-auto insurance comprehensive cost ratio has remained above 100% since 2019, indicating underwriting losses primarily offset by auto insurance profits [4][12]. - The industry faces challenges such as high expense levels, inadequate premium sufficiency, persistent underwriting losses, and high accounts receivable [2][3]. Group 2: Regulatory Measures - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) has issued several notifications and guidelines to address irrational competition and high costs in the non-auto insurance sector, including the recent "Questions and Answers on Comprehensive Governance of Non-Auto Insurance" [2][4][12]. - The new regulations emphasize the principle of "reporting and operating in unison," requiring insurance companies to strictly adhere to approved insurance terms and rates, thereby enhancing market behavior regulation [4][11]. - The regulations aim to reduce the emphasis on premium scale and growth, shifting the focus towards compliance, quality, and consumer rights protection [6][12]. Group 3: Company Responses - Leading insurers like PICC, Ping An, and Taiping have proactively initiated product term filings and cost governance in response to regulatory changes, indicating a strong commitment to compliance [6][7]. - Companies are restructuring their business models to transition from cost competition to risk pricing and service capability, with a focus on enhancing internal management and product innovation [7][8]. - Smaller insurers are encouraged to focus on niche markets and specialized products to differentiate themselves and build competitive advantages [15][16]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The implementation of the "reporting and operating in unison" policy is expected to compress some business operations in the short term but will ultimately lead to a more sustainable competitive environment based on risk identification and service quality [10][12]. - The regulatory framework aims to clarify responsibilities and streamline processes, pushing the market towards a more structured and compliant operational model [10][11]. - The anticipated market concentration will favor larger, well-managed companies, while smaller firms may need to adapt by focusing on specialized areas to survive [15][16].

Investment Logic - The core view is that new individual insurance premiums for listed insurance companies are expected to achieve double-digit growth by 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel [1][18] - The individual insurance channel is anticipated to maintain steady growth, while the bancassurance channel will benefit from the migration of deposits, leading to an increase in market share for large insurance companies [1][18] - The growth in the bancassurance channel is expected to dilute fixed costs, significantly enhancing overall profitability [1][18] Bancassurance Channel - Since 2020, leading insurance companies have refocused on the bancassurance channel, transitioning from scale compensation to value pursuit, resulting in a rise in market share [2][8] - The bancassurance channel has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.2% from 2019 to 2023, while individual insurance premiums have declined [9] - The "reporting and banking integration" policy implemented in August 2023 has significantly reduced costs, enhancing the value rate of the bancassurance channel [14][9] Customer Deposit Analysis - A survey of 88 frontline bank wealth managers indicates that a significant portion of residents' deposits will mature in 2026, with expectations of low renewal rates due to the withdrawal of high-yield time deposits [3][25] - The majority of maturing depositors are aged 45 and above, indicating a lower risk appetite, with insurance products being the second choice for reallocating maturing deposits [4][30] - Wealth managers believe that bank wealth management products will be the most accepted option for maturing deposits, followed by insurance products [30][27] Sales Logic for Insurance Products - Wealth managers prioritize customer returns and the brand of insurance companies when recommending insurance products [5][33] - The core advantages of participating in dividend insurance sales include stable returns, capital safety, and alignment with long-term financial planning [36][40] - Challenges in selling dividend insurance include uncertainty in returns and the long duration of products, which may deter potential customers [40][36] Market Forecast - The insurance industry is projected to see new single premium growth exceeding 25% in 2026, driven by the bancassurance channel [42][44] - The expected influx of maturing deposits into insurance products will be significant, with estimates of new funds in the bancassurance channel reaching 11,150 billion by the end of 2026 [44][44] - The concentration trend among leading insurance companies is expected to continue, with larger firms benefiting from improved profitability in the bancassurance channel [47][48]

Core Viewpoint - Analyzing an insurance company requires a comprehensive approach that considers multiple indicators such as risk, profitability, development, and scale, rather than focusing solely on premiums or profits [1]. Group 1: Comprehensive Strength of Insurance Companies - The "13精" comprehensive competitiveness ranking has been published for six consecutive years, evaluating companies based on six key indicators [1][4]. - The ranking aims to guide insurance companies to prioritize consumer rights protection by adjusting the evaluation system to include service capability [1]. Group 2: Top Competitors in 2025 - In the first half of 2025, the top 30 companies in the "13精" comprehensive competitiveness ranking included five AAA-rated companies: Ping An Property & Casualty, PICC Property & Casualty, Taiping Property & Casualty, China Life Property, and Yingda Property [5][6][14]. - The ranking reflects the ongoing "Matthew Effect" in the insurance industry, where leading companies maintain their competitive edge [14]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Trends - In the first half of 2025, the net profit of 84 property insurance companies reached 52.5 billion, marking a continuous growth for five years and nearing the total net profit of 60.5 billion for 2024 [11]. - The profitability of property insurance companies has improved due to better underwriting capabilities and a favorable investment environment, with many companies experiencing significant year-on-year profit increases [12][19]. Group 4: Individual Company Analysis - Ping An Property & Casualty demonstrated strong growth in both scale and profitability, with a double-digit growth rate in non-auto insurance premiums [16][19]. - PICC Property & Casualty achieved a comprehensive cost ratio of 94.72%, down 0.81 percentage points from the previous year, with a return on equity (ROE) exceeding 9% [20][22]. - Taiping Property & Casualty improved its net asset return to 8.9%, benefiting from a reduction in comprehensive cost ratios [24]. Group 5: Industry Dynamics and Challenges - The transition towards non-auto insurance has led to increased differentiation among insurance companies, with some small and medium-sized firms improving profitability while others struggle [12][28]. - The industry continues to experience a "Matthew Effect," where larger firms outperform smaller ones in both scale and profitability, despite overall improvements in cost ratios across the sector [25][28]. Group 6: Industry Metrics and Comparisons - The average premium growth rate in the industry was 4.04%, with an average ROE of 6.86% and a comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of 239.30% [30]. - The ranking system has been refined over time to better reflect the industry's focus on high-quality development, including adjustments to the scoring of premium growth and the introduction of service capability metrics [52][54].

Group 1 - The insurance sector experienced a decline of 0.47% on January 12, with China Pacific Insurance leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] - Key individual stock performances included China Life Insurance up 1.29% to 49.44, while China Pacific Insurance fell 2.41% to 45.38 [1] Group 2 - The insurance sector saw a net outflow of 2.661 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 1.387 billion yuan [1] - Specific stock fund flows indicated that China Life Insurance had a net outflow of 89.416 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - China Pacific Insurance experienced a net outflow of 114 million yuan from institutional investors, with a retail net inflow of 107 million yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating, recommending continued active investment in the insurance sector due to expected double-digit growth in new premiums driven by the bancassurance channel [5]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is projected to achieve double-digit growth in new premiums by 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel, which benefits from the migration of deposits and the competitive advantages of large insurance companies [1][26]. - The bancassurance channel has seen a significant increase in market share, with the "old seven" insurance companies' new premium market share rising from 8.2% in 2019 to 23.8% in 2023, and expected to reach 26.0% in 2024 [2][22]. - A survey of 88 frontline bank wealth managers indicates that a substantial portion of household deposits will mature in 2026, with expectations that many will not be renewed, leading to a shift towards insurance products [3][35]. - The demographic of clients with maturing deposits is predominantly older, with a lower risk appetite, making insurance products a preferred option for reallocating funds [4][40]. - The report highlights that the bancassurance channel's growth will significantly enhance the overall profitability of large insurance companies by spreading fixed costs over a larger premium base [1][26]. Summary by Sections Bancassurance Channel - The bancassurance channel is identified as the main driver of value growth in the insurance industry for 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.2% from 2019 to 2023 [12]. - The report notes that the shift in focus from individual insurance channels to bancassurance began in 2020, driven by the need to compensate for declining individual premium growth [2][12]. Bank Wealth Manager Survey Analysis - The survey indicates that a significant portion of maturing deposits will not be renewed, with expectations that 50% of clients will have deposits maturing in the 10%-30% and 30%-50% ranges [3][35]. - Wealth managers believe that the most acceptable financial products for clients will be bank wealth management and insurance, with insurance ranking second [4][40]. Projections for 2026 - The report estimates that the new premium growth rate for the bancassurance channel will exceed 25% in 2026, with expected incremental funds of 3,057 billion in January, 5,094 billion in Q1, and 11,150 billion for the entire year [5][62]. - The anticipated growth is attributed to the large volume of maturing deposits and the expected shift towards insurance products due to lower renewal rates for traditional bank deposits [60].

Group 1 - The China People's Property Insurance Company has received approval to revoke the business license of its Turpan branch [1] - Following the approval, the Turpan branch must cease all operations immediately and return its license to the Turpan Financial Regulatory Bureau within 15 working days [1] - The company is required to enhance follow-up services after the revocation, ensuring proper information disclosure and customer notification to maintain service quality and mitigate risks associated with the branch's closure [1] Group 2 - The Turpan Regulatory Bureau issued the approval on January 6, 2026, in response to the request for revocation submitted by the China People's Property Insurance Company [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China People's Property Insurance Company, Haidong Branch, faced administrative penalties due to inadequate execution of internal control systems, resulting in a warning and a fine of 10,000 yuan [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Categories Administrative Penalties - The Haidong Financial Regulatory Bureau issued a warning and a fine of 10,000 yuan to the China People's Property Insurance Company, Haidong Branch, for failing to properly implement internal control systems [1][2]. Individual Sanctions - Han Tao, former team leader of the social medical insurance service department, was banned from the insurance industry for 15 years [1][2]. - Zhang Lingjun, former team leader of the social security claims department, was also banned from the insurance industry for 15 years [1][2]. - Wang Xin, former auxiliary staff member, received a 15-year ban from the insurance industry [1][2]. - Min Xiaorong, former general manager of the Haidong Branch, received a warning and a fine of 10,000 yuan [1][2]. - Bai Zhixiang, former deputy general manager, received a warning and a fine of 10,000 yuan [1][2]. - Du Daqing, former assistant to the general manager, received a warning and a fine of 10,000 yuan [1][2]. - Wang Xiangang, former assistant to the general manager, received a warning and a fine of 10,000 yuan [1][2]. - Ma Jizong, former manager of the health insurance department, received a warning and a fine of 10,000 yuan [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report rates the insurance industry as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The insurance sector has shown significant improvement, with the Insurance II index rising by 19.5% and the Hong Kong Insurance index by 13.5% from December 4, 2025, to January 9, 2026 [1] - Major insurance companies have reported strong new business growth, with some top firms seeing over 70% year-on-year growth in new policies during the first three days of 2026 [2] - The overall premium income for life insurance from January to November 2025 increased by 9.1% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the liability side of the business [2] - The decline in deposit rates and the scarcity of large-denomination time deposits are expected to drive more funds into insurance products, which offer relatively higher returns [2] Summary by Sections Stock Performance - China Pacific Insurance led A-share gains with a 32.1% increase, followed by New China Life at 25.4%, China Life at 12.5%, and others [1][8] - In H-shares, New China Life also led with a 30.9% increase, while China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance followed with 23.6% and 21.7% respectively [1][8] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The average Price to Embedded Value (PEV) for major A-share insurers ranges from 0.76 to 0.93, while H-share PEVs range from 0.54 to 0.76, indicating that valuations are still below historical averages [4] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) growth for key companies, with China Ping An expected to reach an EPS of 8.08 in 2026, while China Pacific Insurance is projected at 4.80 [6][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for leading insurers due to improved fundamentals and the potential for valuation recovery, particularly for China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and New China Life [4]