Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Expected High Dividend Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses a two-stage process to construct the expected dividend yield indicator. The first stage calculates the dividend yield based on annual report profit distribution data, while the second stage predicts and calculates the dividend yield using historical dividend data and fundamental indicators. Additionally, two short-term factors—reversal factor and profitability factor—are used to assist in stock selection. The portfolio is optimized within the CSI 300 constituents[4][9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Exclude suspended and limit-up stocks from the CSI 300 constituents to form the initial stock pool[14] 2. Remove the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum (21-day cumulative returns)[14] 3. Exclude stocks with declining profitability (quarterly net profit growth rate < 0)[14] 4. Rank the remaining stocks by expected dividend yield and select the top 30 stocks to construct an equal-weighted portfolio[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a systematic approach to identifying high-dividend stocks, leveraging both historical data and fundamental analysis for robust stock selection[4][9] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Expected High Dividend Portfolio - **Cumulative Return**: 358.90% relative to the CSI 300 Total Return Index from February 2, 2009, to August 31, 2017[12] - **Cumulative Excess Return**: 107.44% over the same period[12] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 8.87%[12] - **Maximum Drawdown of Rolling One-Year Excess Return**: 12.26%[12] - **Monthly Excess Win Rate**: 60.19%[12] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Expected Dividend Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor predicts dividend yield by combining historical dividend data with fundamental indicators. It is used to identify stocks with high expected dividend yields[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate dividend yield based on annual report profit distribution data[4][9] 2. Predict and calculate dividend yield using historical dividend data and fundamental indicators[4][9] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively integrates historical and fundamental data to predict dividend yields, providing a solid foundation for high-dividend stock selection[4][15] 2. Factor Name: Reversal Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor identifies stocks with short-term price reversals, which may impact dividend yield predictions[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Measure short-term momentum using 21-day cumulative returns and exclude the top 20% of stocks with the highest momentum[14] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor helps mitigate the impact of short-term price surges, ensuring a focus on stable dividend yield predictions[4][15] 3. Factor Name: Profitability Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor screens out stocks with declining profitability, ensuring the selection of fundamentally strong companies[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Exclude stocks with quarterly net profit growth rates less than 0[14] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor ensures the portfolio is composed of financially sound companies, enhancing the reliability of dividend yield predictions[4][15] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Expected Dividend Yield Factor - **June 2025 Average Return**: 1.84%[15] - **Excess Return Relative to CSI 300**: -0.83%[15] - **Excess Return Relative to CSI Dividend Index**: 2.40%[15] 2. Reversal Factor - **Impact**: Excluded the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum, ensuring stability in the portfolio's dividend yield predictions[14] 3. Profitability Factor - **Impact**: Excluded stocks with declining profitability, maintaining a focus on fundamentally strong companies[14]

+0.05(+0.91%) +0.10(+1.18%) +0.05(+1.20%) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 01 3851.91亿市值 3598.97亿市值 10143.10亿市值 5.37亿成交额 19.62亿成交额 6.12亿成交额 55.70 8.71 37.41 -0.10(-0.27%) +0.22(+0.40%) 0.00(0.00%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 17650.84亿市值 2127.86亿市值 4604.75亿市值 27.94亿成交额 9.82亿成交额 14.49亿成交额 174.42 118.63 1405.10 -0.27(-0.23%) -4.42(-0.31%) -1.97(-1.12%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2369.53亿市值 3172.72亿市值 2355.31亿市值 11.51亿成交额 59.25亿成交额 26.84亿成交额 443.30 136.50 563.00 +1.09(+0.25%) -38.50(-6.40%) -4.79(-3.39%) 汽车整车 铁路公路 长城汽车 比亚迪 京沪高铁 2803.44 ...

报告显示，2024年30家上市公司的新签合同额合计人民币184,411.76亿元，同比下降3.44%（数据来源：安永《中国上市建筑公司2024年回顾及未来展望》 报告）。在这一背景下，境外业务占比及变化情况备受瞩目。 安永大中华区政府与基础设施事业部主管合伙人兼安永北京主管合伙人杨淑娟在接受环球网记者采访时表示，尽管2024年整体新签合同额有所回落，但部分 领军企业的境外业务占比却逆势上扬。以中国建筑为例，其境外新签合同额同比增长19%，这一强劲增长无疑为行业注入了新的活力，彰显了中国建筑企业 在国际舞台上的竞争力。 杨淑娟介绍，2024年建筑企业境外业务占比小幅提升，如中国建筑境外新签合同额同比增长19%。企业"走出去"时，需关注政治、法律、财税、金融、供应 链及运营等风险。全球地缘政治风险加剧，企业要构建"穿越周期的新生存法则"，重视风险管控与合规管理。 中国建筑企业出海已取得一定成效，但面临诸多挑战。为此，杨淑娟认为，企业应聚焦核心业务、创新项目模式、明晰战略方向、深耕重点区域、优化协同 发展体系以及赋能海外机构。当前国际市场机遇与挑战并存。一方面，全球经济复苏乏力、地缘政治风险持续存在；另一方面，"一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a decline across various sectors, with banking stocks mostly in the red and significant drops in insurance, liquor, and semiconductor sectors [1][6]. Banking Sector - Most banking stocks experienced a decline, contributing to the overall negative performance of the index [1]. Insurance Sector - Major insurance companies like China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance saw market capitalizations of 390.94 billion, 359.61 billion, and 1,045.27 billion respectively, with declines of -0.26 (-0.69%), -0.18 (-0.31%), and -0.16 (-1.78%) [3]. Liquor Industry - Key players in the liquor industry, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, reported market capitalizations of 1,778.15 billion, 217.75 billion, and 464.59 billion respectively, with price changes of -4.50 (-0.32%), -1.16 (-0.65%), and -0.04 (-0.03%) [3]. Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor companies such as Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Hygon reported market capitalizations of 233.53 billion, 249.53 billion, and 326.76 billion respectively, with price changes of -1.01 (-0.23%), -12.76 (-2.09%), and -1.17 (-0.83%) [3]. Automotive Sector - In the automotive sector, BYD and Great Wall Motors had market capitalizations of 282.79 billion and 1,834.50 billion respectively, with price changes of -3.57 (-1.06%) and +0.07 (+0.33%) [3]. Energy Sector - Companies in the energy sector, including China Shipping and Sinopec, reported market capitalizations of 686.25 billion and 1,584.96 billion respectively, with price changes of +0.03 (+0.20%) and -0.05 (-0.88%) [3]. Coal Industry - In the coal industry, China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry had market capitalizations of 186.24 billion and 795.34 billion respectively, with price changes of -1.98 (-0.78%) and -0.01 (-0.02%) [3]. Power Industry - The power sector, represented by companies like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power, had market capitalizations of 192.31 billion and 745.30 billion respectively, with price changes of -0.65 (-2.09%) and -0.03 (-0.32%) [4]. Internet Services - Internet service companies such as Dongfang Caifu reported a market capitalization of 371.40 billion, with a price change of +0.37 (+1.60%) [4]. Food and Beverage Sector - In the food and beverage sector, companies like Citic Securities and Haitian Flavoring reported market capitalizations of 414.23 billion and 342.55 billion respectively, with price changes of +0.38 (+1.38%) and -0.10 (-0.26%) [4]. Consumer Electronics - Companies in the consumer electronics sector, including Industrial Fulian and Luxshare Precision, had market capitalizations of 426.17 billion and 246.39 billion respectively, with price changes of +0.42 (+2.00%) and -0.35 (-0.67%) [4]. Home Appliances - In the home appliance sector, Gree Electric and Haier Smart Home reported market capitalizations of 255.76 billion and 234.57 billion respectively, with price changes of +0.16 (+0.35%) and +0.28 (+1.13%) [4]. Logistics Sector - The logistics sector, represented by companies like SF Holding, had a market capitalization of 276.36 billion, with a price change of +0.60 (+1.13%) [4]. Construction Industry - In the construction industry, China State Construction and XD China Communications reported market capitalizations of 240.07 billion and 527.30 billion respectively, with price changes of -0.02 (-0.34%) and +0.05 (+0.95%) [4].

Summary of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) - **Period**: January to May 2025 Key Points Industry Performance - **Construction Business**: Contract value reached nearly 1.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [2] - **Infrastructure Business**: Contract value close to 600 billion yuan, growing by 16%, driven by energy engineering, water conservancy, and municipal projects [2][5] - **Real Estate Sales**: Approximately 130 billion yuan, showing a slight decline, but sales in April and May showed a narrowing year-on-year drop, indicating an overall positive trend [2][5] Core Insights - **Energy Engineering Growth**: Significant growth in energy engineering, particularly in renewable energy projects like solar and wind, with a near doubling in growth rate [3][7] - **Municipal Engineering Recovery**: Municipal engineering projects rebounded with growth rates exceeding 20%, following a decline in the previous year [3][8] - **Debt Policy Impact**: The national debt policy is expected to improve cash flow and receivables recovery, with a projected issuance of long-term bonds and special bonds [7][14] Financial Metrics - **Dividend Policy**: The company maintains a stable dividend policy with a per-share dividend of 0.271 yuan, yielding over 4.5% [2][6] - **Accounts Receivable Structure**: Government projects account for 10%, state-owned enterprises and local government financing platforms 40%, central enterprises 10%, foreign capital 5%, and private enterprises 35% [7] Strategic Initiatives - **Market Positioning**: Focus on first-tier and strong second-tier cities to optimize inventory structure, leading to improved sales performance [9][10] - **Value Management**: Implementation of a comprehensive value management system to enhance company valuation through investor communication and capital market engagement [11][12][13] Future Outlook - **Sustainable Growth**: The company anticipates continued growth in infrastructure as a key area for transformation and upgrading, with a focus on high-quality projects [4][17] - **Real Estate Market Trends**: The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on high-quality developments in core urban areas [16][17] - **Urban Renewal Projects**: Significant growth in urban renewal projects, with a focus on affordable housing and city transformation initiatives [15] Risks and Challenges - **Receivables Pressure**: Increased accounts receivable is a common challenge in the construction industry, particularly during economic downturns [7] - **Market Volatility**: The company faces potential risks from market fluctuations and geopolitical factors affecting overseas projects [10] Conclusion - **Overall Performance**: CSCEC demonstrates resilience in its construction and real estate segments, with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and market positioning, while navigating challenges in the current economic landscape [2][16]

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index component stocks showed a mixed performance with bank stocks rising in the afternoon while insurance stocks continued to decline [1][5]. Banking Sector - Bank stocks generally performed well, contributing to the positive movement in the FTSE China A50 Index [1]. Insurance Sector - Major insurance companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, and Ping An Insurance experienced declines in their stock prices, with China Pacific Insurance down by 1.05%, China Life down by 0.52%, and Ping An down by 1.42% [3]. Alcohol Industry - In the alcohol sector, Kweichow Moutai saw a slight increase of 0.48%, while Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye experienced declines of 0.37% and 0.83% respectively [3]. Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor companies showed varied results, with North Huachuang increasing by 2.72%, while Cambrian and Haiguang Information saw minor declines [3]. Automotive Sector - In the automotive sector, BYD's stock fell by 3.39%, while Great Wall Motors and China Railway High-speed experienced minor declines and increases respectively [3]. Shipping and Oil Industry - China COSCO Shipping saw a slight increase of 0.53%, while Sinopec and PetroChina experienced minor declines [3]. Coal and Battery Industry - China Shenhua's stock decreased by 0.27%, while Ningde Times (CATL) saw a decline of 0.83% [3]. Power and Financial Sector - Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power had mixed results, with Longyuan Power increasing by 0.74% and China Nuclear Power declining by 3.63% [4]. Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector showed declines, with companies like Haitian Flavor Industry and Zhongtai Securities experiencing notable decreases [4]. Consumer Electronics and Pharmaceutical Sector - The consumer electronics sector saw a slight increase in stocks like Luxshare Precision, while pharmaceutical companies like Hengrui Medicine experienced a decline [4]. Logistics and Medical Equipment - The logistics sector, represented by SF Holding, saw a minor decline, while medical equipment company Mindray Medical also experienced a decrease [4]. Non-ferrous Metals and Communication Services - Zijin Mining and China Communications Construction had mixed performances, with Zijin Mining showing a slight decline [4].

Core Viewpoint - China State Construction continues to demonstrate steady growth in 2023, with significant project acquisitions and a focus on its core construction business while facing challenges in its real estate sector [1][2]. Group 1: Major Projects and Financial Performance - In June 2023, China State Construction announced the acquisition of eight major projects totaling 21.53 billion yuan, representing 1% of the audited revenue for 2024 [1]. - The new contracts signed from January to May 2025 amounted to 1.84 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with the construction business contributing 1.71 trillion yuan, up 2.2% [1][2]. - The real estate business saw a contract sales figure of 130.4 billion yuan, which is a decline of 4% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Financial Metrics and R&D Investment - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company's contract liabilities stood at 358.4 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.63% [3]. - For Q1 2025, China State Construction reported revenue of 555.3 billion yuan, a 1.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.01 billion yuan, up 0.61% [3]. - The company has maintained high R&D investment, with expenditures exceeding 40 billion yuan annually since 2021, totaling 181.3 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [3]. - By the end of 2024, China State Construction held approximately 68,600 valid patents, including around 10,400 invention patents, showcasing its industry-leading position in innovation [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns - Since its listing in 2009, China State Construction has consistently paid dividends, distributing cash dividends 16 times, totaling 104 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 159.68% [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) has shown stable growth in its business operations for the first five months of 2025, with a total new contract amount of 1,841.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1] - In the construction business segment, the new contract amount reached 1,710.8 billion yuan, up by 2.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure business contracts amounting to 593.9 billion yuan, marking a significant growth of 16.2% [1] - The domestic business accounted for 1,632.4 billion yuan, which is a 3.5% increase year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in the domestic market [1] Group 2 - In the real estate sector, CSCEC reported a contract sales amount of 130.4 billion yuan and a sales area of 4.55 million square meters, with a reduction in year-on-year decline compared to previous periods [1] - The company acquired land reserves of 2.71 million square meters, bringing the total land reserves to 76.25 million square meters by the end of the reporting period [1] - CSCEC has recently secured several major projects totaling 8.32 billion yuan, including urban renewal projects and infrastructure initiatives, enhancing its influence in key urban real estate markets [2] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment in May 2025 showed structural differentiation, with the manufacturing PMI rising by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, while construction-related activities remained strong, as indicated by a timber engineering index of 62.3% [2] - The Chinese government continues to promote urban renewal, with the release of policies aimed at accelerating the transformation of existing buildings and urban villages, which is expected to drive industry transformation and value creation [2] - CSCEC plans to accelerate the application of the "good housing" construction system, focusing on safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence, to actively participate in urban renewal efforts [2]

Group 1 - The meeting between the Secretary of the Autonomous Region and the Chairman of China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) highlights the importance of collaboration for regional development in Guangxi [1] - Guangxi is focusing on implementing significant national initiatives, such as the AI capability construction plan and the high-level construction of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, to enhance investment and infrastructure development [1] - CSCEC is encouraged to leverage its advantages as a central enterprise to increase investment in Guangxi, particularly in green building, comprehensive transportation, urban renewal, and water network construction [1] Group 2 - CSCEC expressed gratitude for the support from the regional government and emphasized Guangxi's strategic position as a gateway for cooperation with ASEAN, presenting vast development prospects [2] - The company plans to deepen its investment and expand cooperation in infrastructure, urban renewal, and real estate development in Guangxi, contributing to the region's high-quality development [2]

Core Insights - The reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China has entered a new phase, with significant actions being taken to deepen and enhance the reform process [1][8] - Over 20 new companies have been established by central SOEs in the construction sector in the first half of this year, aimed at optimizing industry layout and enhancing competitiveness [1][2] Group 1: Establishment of New Companies - In May alone, six new construction SOEs were established, including China State Construction Fifth Engineering Division (Zhejiang) Investment Construction Co., Ltd. and China Urban Construction Group (Shanghai) Technology Co., Ltd. [2][3] - The highest registered capital among these new companies is 900 million yuan for China Resources New Energy (Bama) Co., Ltd., which focuses on power generation and renewable energy technology [2][3] Group 2: Industry Transformation - The establishment of new companies is seen as a move to optimize industry layout, allowing SOEs to focus on specific regions or business areas, thus improving resource allocation [3][5] - The new companies are expected to respond to domestic market opportunities such as urban renewal and new infrastructure, while also expanding into international markets [3][5] Group 3: Green and Intelligent Transition - The government has set a development tone for the construction industry emphasizing "steady progress, green transformation, and innovation-driven" growth [6] - SOEs are expected to promote high-quality, intelligent, and green transformations in the construction industry through various means, including the adoption of advanced technologies like BIM and IoT [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The construction industry is anticipated to face both opportunities and challenges in the second half of the year, with potential support from policies and market demand [7][8] - The ongoing reforms and establishment of new companies are expected to play a crucial role in enhancing the industry's contribution to economic and social development [8]