证券研究报告 建筑装饰 | 房屋建设Ⅱ 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 年 | 04 | 月 18 | 日 | | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | 5.50 | | | | | 一 年 内 最 / 最 低 | | | 6.79/4.72 | | 高 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 227,262.15 | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 9.02 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2,187.148 billion for 2024, a decrease of 3.46% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 462 billion, down 14.9% year-on-year. The decline in profit was primarily due to higher-than-expected impairment provisions for construction projects [1][4]. - Despite the profit decline, the company maintained a strong dividend capability, distributing RMB 11.2 billion in dividends for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio increasing by 3.47 percentage points to 24.29%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.9% [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue from different segments in 2024 was as follows: construction revenue at RMB 1,321.8 billion (down 4.5%), infrastructure revenue at RMB 550.9 billion (down 1.0%), and surveying and design revenue at RMB 108 billion (down 0.8%). The overall gross margin for 2024 was 9.86%, slightly up by 0.02 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 2.11%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year, with the fourth quarter showing a net profit margin of 1.16%, down 0.63 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is RMB 468 billion, RMB 473 billion, and RMB 478 billion respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of approximately 14% from previous estimates [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable revenue scale while focusing on high-quality operations, with a projected PE ratio of 4.87 for 2025 [4][6]. Market Position and Growth - The company has shown resilience in the real estate sector, with new land reserves of 8.82 million square meters, which is approximately 5.3 times the sales area for 2024 [2]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was RMB 15.8 billion, an increase of RMB 4.7 billion year-on-year, indicating improved cash management [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668.SH) [1] Core Views - The company experienced pressure on its annual performance, with a significant increase in dividend payout ratio [1] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of CNY 218.71 billion, CNY 46.2 billion, and CNY 41.6 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 3.5%, 14.9%, and 14.3% [5] - The company signed new contracts worth CNY 450.27 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, with notable growth in industrial buildings and energy sectors [6] - The company’s overseas revenue grew at a faster pace, with strategic emerging industries accounting for 10% of total revenue [7] - The company improved cash flow significantly in Q4 2024, with a cash dividend payout ratio rising to 24% [8] - The report projects a gradual recovery in operational performance, maintaining the "Buy" rating despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 218.71 billion, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 46.2 billion, down 14.9% [5] - The fourth quarter saw revenue of CNY 56.06 billion, with net profit dropping 38.9% year-on-year [5] Contract and Revenue Growth - New contracts signed in 2024 totaled CNY 450.27 billion, with a 4.1% increase year-on-year [6] - The company’s new contracts in the industrial building sector rose by 16.0% to CNY 72.16 billion [6] Cash Flow and Dividends - The company reported a significant improvement in cash flow in Q4 2024, with operating cash inflow of CNY 92.78 billion, an increase of CNY 65.4 billion year-on-year [8] - The dividend payout ratio increased to 24.3%, with a dividend of CNY 2.715 per 10 shares [8] Future Outlook - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in performance, with net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 adjusted to CNY 47.49 billion and CNY 48.67 billion, respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 6.49 CNY for the next six months [5][10]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.19 trillion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 461.87 billion CNY, down 14.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to increased expense ratios and impairment provisions [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.715 CNY per 10 shares, which represents 24.29% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, an increase of 3.47 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. Revenue Performance - The company's revenue performance was under pressure, with quarterly revenue growth rates of 4.67%, 1.16%, -13.62%, and -5.67% for Q1 to Q4 respectively, indicating a narrowing decline in Q4 [2][3]. - The revenue breakdown by business segment includes: construction at 1.32 trillion CNY (down 4.5% YoY), infrastructure at 550.9 billion CNY (down 1.0% YoY), real estate development and investment at 306.2 billion CNY (down 0.8% YoY), and surveying and design at 10.8 billion CNY (down 7.9% YoY [2][3]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin improved slightly to 9.86% (up 0.03 percentage points YoY), with construction and infrastructure margins also increasing [3]. - The company reported a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with a net inflow of 157.74 billion CNY, a 43% increase YoY, and Q4 operating cash flow reaching 927.83 billion CNY, up 238.85% YoY [3]. - The net profit margin decreased to 2.87%, down 0.38 percentage points YoY, primarily due to increased expense ratios and impairment provisions [3]. Contracting and Business Structure - The company signed new contracts totaling 4.50 trillion CNY in 2024, a 4.1% increase YoY, with notable growth in overseas contracts [4][9]. - The construction business structure continues to optimize, with new contracts in the construction sector at 2.65 trillion CNY (down 1.4% YoY) and infrastructure contracts at 1.41 trillion CNY (up 21.1% YoY) [9].

Group 1 - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue, with a total revenue of 218.71 billion yuan in 2024, down 3.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 46.2 billion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 56.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.5 billion yuan, down 38.9% year-on-year [1] - The decline in net profit was greater than the decline in revenue due to increased provisions for credit and asset impairment losses, which rose by 7.5 billion yuan and 5.03 billion yuan respectively, up 13.1% and 58.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company achieved a new contract amount of 4080.8 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, with new contracts in infrastructure rising by 21.1% year-on-year [1] - The company’s contract sales in real estate amounted to 421.9 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, with a sales area of 146.4 billion square meters, down 21.2% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - The overall gross margin for the company was 9.86% in 2024, an increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for housing construction, infrastructure, and real estate at 7.40%, 10.03%, and 17.28% respectively [2] - The company maintained a stable expense ratio of 4.95%, up 0.24 percentage points year-on-year, with management and R&D expenses increasing by 0.6% and sales expenses decreasing by 1.3% [2] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 15.77 billion yuan, marking five consecutive years of positive cash flow, with a significant improvement in the investment income ratio [2] Group 4 - The company has adjusted its profit forecast downward but maintains an "outperform the market" rating, with expected net profits of 49.3 billion yuan, 50.7 billion yuan, and 52.0 billion yuan over the next three years [3] - The company aims to control operational risks and improve operational quality, with projected earnings per share of 1.19 yuan, 1.22 yuan, and 1.25 yuan for the next three years [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][26][31] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong leadership advantages and continuous improvement in cash flow despite a slight decline in revenue and increased collection pressure affecting profitability [1][2][3] - New contract signings have shown resilient growth, with a total of 40,808 billion yuan in new contracts for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [2][10] - The company maintains a stable gross margin, with an overall gross margin of 9.86% for 2024, which is a slight increase from the previous year [2][16] - Operating cash flow has been positive for five consecutive years, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 15.77 billion yuan in 2024 [3][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 21,871 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 462 billion yuan, down 14.9% [1][9] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 5,606 billion yuan, a decline of 5.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 65 billion yuan, down 38.9% [1][9] Order and Sales Performance - The company secured new contracts worth 40,808 billion yuan in 2024, with infrastructure contracts increasing by 21.1% year-on-year [2][10] - In the real estate sector, the company reported a contract sales amount of 4,219 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, with sales area down 21.2% [2][10] Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 9.86%, with specific margins for housing construction, infrastructure, and real estate at 7.40%, 10.03%, and 17.28% respectively [2][16] - The company’s expense ratio for 2024 was 4.95%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.24 percentage points year-on-year [2][16] Cash Flow and Investment - The net cash flow from operating activities was 15.77 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive year of positive cash flow [3][19] - The company has improved its investment income ratio, with a net cash outflow from investment activities of 25.1 billion yuan, the smallest since 2006 [3][19] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecast downward but maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating, projecting net profits of 493 billion yuan, 507 billion yuan, and 520 billion yuan for the next three years [26][29]

Core Viewpoint - The company has made significant progress in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives, focusing on green procurement, carbon neutrality, safety standards, and community support, reflecting its commitment to sustainable development and corporate responsibility [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Environmental Initiatives - In 2024, the company onboarded 6,955 qualified green suppliers into its green marketplace, achieving a total cooperation amount of 248.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% [1] - The company established a "dual carbon" organizational system, led by the chairman, to promote carbon peak and carbon neutrality efforts, with specific targets integrated into subsidiary evaluations [2] - The company has developed a comprehensive energy management system, prohibiting the use of high-energy-consuming and high-polluting technologies, while encouraging energy-saving technologies and materials [3] - The company won 15 projects in clean energy and water environmental protection sectors, with a total investment of approximately 50 billion yuan [3] - The company participated in the formulation of multiple national and local standards for green building technologies and carbon emissions, completing 1,013 low-carbon green building projects [4] Group 2: Social Responsibility - The company has established an employee-centered care service system, organizing various activities to enhance employee well-being and support special groups [5] - The company invested 148.93 million yuan in targeted assistance to specific regions, benefiting over 507,890 people, and promoting local agricultural products [5] - The company integrated volunteer services with its main business, focusing on rural revitalization and environmental protection, with a total investment of 154.43 million yuan in donations and public welfare projects [5] Group 3: Governance and Training - The company conducted two ESG-related training sessions for its board members, enhancing governance effectiveness through regular evaluations [1][2] - The company has implemented a detailed standard for accident hazard identification, consisting of 980 major and 4,477 general hazard criteria, to ensure safety management [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 218.71 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 3.46% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 46.19 billion yuan, down 14.88% year-on-year [2] - The company achieved a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 15.77 billion yuan, an increase of 43% [2] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown: - Construction revenue: 132.18 billion yuan, down 4.5% - Infrastructure revenue: 55.09 billion yuan, down 1.0% - Real estate revenue: 3.06 billion yuan, down 0.8% - Survey and design revenue: 10.8 billion yuan, down 7.9% [2] - Gross profit: 97.85 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year [2] - Gross margin: 9.86%, up 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Net margin: 2.87%, down 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Total expenses ratio: 4.95%, up 0.24 percentage points year-on-year [2] Accounts Receivable and Liabilities - Accounts receivable stood at 317.09 billion yuan, an increase of 23.05% year-on-year [3] - Asset-liability ratio was 75.81%, up 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Total impairment losses amounted to 20.09 billion yuan, an increase of 5.79 billion yuan year-on-year [3] Contractual Performance - New contracts signed in 2024 totaled 4.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year [3] - Breakdown of new contracts: - Construction: 4.08 trillion yuan, up 5.4% - Infrastructure: 1.41 trillion yuan, up 21.1% - Overseas contracts: 221.3 billion yuan, up 19.0% [3] - New contracts signed in January-February 2025 reached 713.6 billion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year [3] Future Projections - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027: - 2025: 48.27 billion yuan, up 4.51% - 2026: 50.98 billion yuan, up 5.61% - 2027: 54.67 billion yuan, up 7.25% [4] - Corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 4.61, 4.36, and 4.07 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][18]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2,187.15 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.46% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 461.9 billion yuan, down 14.88% year-on-year. The decline in performance is attributed to intensified competition in the construction market and a deep adjustment in the real estate sector [1][4]. - The company has increased its cash dividend payout ratio to 24.29%, up by 3.47 percentage points year-on-year, with a corresponding dividend per share of 2.715 yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.05% as of April 15 [1][4]. Revenue and Orders - In 2024, the company signed new construction contracts totaling 40,808 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The revenue breakdown shows that the building construction, infrastructure, and design services generated revenues of 13,218 billion, 5,509 billion, and 108 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -4.5%, -1.0%, and -7.9% [2][4]. - The company’s focus on industrial buildings and public facilities has led to a significant increase in new contracts, with industrial buildings alone accounting for 7,216 billion yuan, a 16.0% increase year-on-year [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for 2024 was reported at 9.86%, a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 2.87%, down 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company reported a cash flow from operations (CFO) of 157.74 billion yuan, an increase of 47.43 billion yuan year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 102.38% [3]. Financial Forecast - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 475 billion, 487 billion, and 500 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [4].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector in China is undergoing significant adjustments, leading to a reshuffling of market leaders, with China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) emerging as the new industry leader in 2024 despite a decline in sales [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - CSCEC's real estate business achieved sales of 421.9 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, yet it surpassed Poly Developments to become the industry leader [2][7]. - This marks the first time CSCEC has claimed the top position in the real estate sector, supported by its subsidiaries, China Overseas Land & Investment and China Construction Real Estate [3][4]. - The gross profit margin for CSCEC's real estate business was 17.3% in 2024, significantly higher than its other main businesses, contributing 25.4% of the total gross profit despite only accounting for 14% of total revenue [3][11]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The "China Construction System" includes two major real estate brands, China Overseas and China Construction Real Estate, which have been actively acquiring land and increasing sales [4][5]. - In 2023, the "China Construction System" achieved contract sales of 451.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [5]. - CSCEC's aggressive land acquisition strategy has positioned it as a leader in the industry, with 75 new land purchases totaling 1.385 billion yuan in 2024 [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Context - The real estate market in China is experiencing a deep adjustment period, with shrinking new home market size and declining industry profit margins [9][11]. - Despite the challenges faced by the real estate sector, CSCEC's strong central enterprise background and proactive strategies have allowed it to capitalize on opportunities during this downturn [11][13]. - The importance of the real estate business is underscored by its relatively high profit margins compared to other segments, making it a crucial component of CSCEC's overall performance [11][13].