| 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601865 | 說明 | A股 (上海證券交易所) | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,901,205,139 | RMB | 0.25 | RMB | | 475,301,284.75 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 23 | | | RMB | | 5.75 | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,901,205,162 | RMB | 0.25 | RMB | | 475,301,290.5 | 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 福萊特玻璃集團股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the polysilicon price has a range of 46,000 to 51,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 47,900 yuan per ton, but the order volume has decreased compared to the previous period [1] Group 1: Polysilicon Market Dynamics - The polysilicon inventory in the silicon wafer sector has been increasing, with approximately 208,000 tons of polysilicon inventory as of August 31, combined with 270,000 tons in the silicon material sector, leading to a total industry inventory of about 500,000 tons, sufficient for around five months of demand [1] - The industry is expected to limit sales by about 97,000 tons in September, while polysilicon production is projected to reach 120,000 to 130,000 tons, indicating a continued accumulation of inventory in silicon material companies [1] Group 2: Glass and Inverter Market Insights - The glass inventory days have decreased by 17.99% to 19.69 days, with the price of 2.0mm glass at 11 yuan per square meter, suggesting a potential price recovery above the cost line due to ongoing supply-side adjustments [3] - The inverter sector is expected to see a quarter-on-quarter increase in shipments in Q3, with some manufacturers exploring AIDC solid-state transformers as a new growth point for performance [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in the polysilicon sector, particularly in leading companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) and JinkoSolar (688223.SH), which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases [2] - The glass industry is recommended for investment, focusing on leading companies such as Xinyi Solar (00968) and Fulete (601865.SH), as well as inverter companies like Jinlang Technology (300763.SZ) and DeYe Co., Ltd. (605117.SH) [3]

Group 1: Company Performance - The photovoltaic glass industry is under pressure, with the company's performance declining year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reporting revenue of 7.737 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.66% [1] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 261 million yuan, down 82.58% year-on-year, and a net profit of 227 million yuan after deducting non-recurring items, down 84.64% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.658 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 26.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 155 million yuan, down 79.02% [1] Group 2: Industry Position and Market Dynamics - The company has established long-term, stable partnerships with leading photovoltaic component manufacturers, transitioning from reliance on imports to domestic procurement due to cost advantages [2] - The company holds a leading market share in the photovoltaic glass industry, with a CR2 exceeding 50%, and is positioned to benefit from potential price increases in photovoltaic glass [3] - As smaller, less efficient competitors exit the market, the company is expected to strengthen its leading position due to its scale, resources, and technological advantages [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability as photovoltaic glass prices rise, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 being 0.27 yuan, 0.54 yuan, and 0.87 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of approximately 67x, 33x, and 21x [4] - The demand for glass from domestic components is increasing, and the overall inventory of glass companies has rapidly decreased, supporting both demand and supply [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% in the next six months [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recent price increase in photovoltaic glass, which is anticipated to aid in profit recovery [4]. - The photovoltaic glass industry is currently under pressure, with the company's performance in the first half of 2025 showing a significant year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit due to oversupply and price drops across the industry [4]. - The company has established long-term, stable relationships with leading photovoltaic module manufacturers, which enhances its market position and customer resource quality [4]. - The company holds a leading market share in the photovoltaic glass sector, with a CR2 exceeding 50%, positioning it well to benefit from industry consolidation as smaller, less efficient competitors exit the market [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 7,737 million yuan, down 27.66% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 261 million yuan, down 82.58% year-on-year [4]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 3,658 million yuan, a decrease of 26.41% year-on-year, with a net profit of 155 million yuan, down 79.02% year-on-year [4]. Market Position - The company has a strong market presence, being among the top two in the photovoltaic glass industry, which allows it to maintain a competitive edge over smaller firms [4]. - The company has successfully transitioned from relying on imported glass to domestic procurement, establishing solid partnerships with major photovoltaic component manufacturers [4]. Future Projections - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.27 yuan, 0.54 yuan, and 0.87 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of approximately 67, 33, and 21 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the solar sector, with specific ratings as follows: - Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Buy-B - Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) - Buy-B - Daqian Energy (688303.SH) - Buy-B - Flat Glass Group (601865.SH) - Buy-A - Hengdian East Magnetic (002056.SZ) - Buy-A - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) - Buy-A - Canadian Solar (688472.SH) - Buy-A - Deye Technology (605117.SH) - Buy-A - Langxin Group (300682.SZ) - Buy-B - Quartz Co., Ltd. (603688.SH) - Buy-A [1] Core Insights - In July 2025, the domestic photovoltaic (PV) new installed capacity was 11.0 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 23.1%. Cumulatively, from January to July, the new installed capacity reached 223.25 GW, representing an increase of 80.7% year-on-year [2][12]. - The export value of PV components in July was 15.89 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year but up 0.5% month-on-month. The cumulative export value from January to July was 111.25 billion yuan, down 22.6% year-on-year [2][14]. - In contrast, the inverter export value in July was 6.51 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.3% but a slight month-on-month decline of 1.2%. The cumulative export value from January to July was 37.11 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year [3][29]. - Solar power generation in July increased by 28.7% year-on-year, with a total generation of 74.43 billion kWh, accounting for 8.03% of the total industrial power generation in the country [4][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Installed Capacity - In July 2025, the domestic PV new installed capacity was 11.0 GW, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 47.6% and a month-on-month decline of 23.1%. The cumulative installed capacity from January to July reached 223.25 GW, marking an 80.7% increase year-on-year [12]. 2. Exports - **Components**: The export value of PV components in July was 15.89 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year but up 0.5% month-on-month. The cumulative export value from January to July was 111.25 billion yuan, down 22.6% year-on-year [14]. - **Inverters**: The inverter export value in July was 6.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.2%. The cumulative export value from January to July was 37.11 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year [29]. 3. Solar Power Generation - In July, solar power generation increased by 28.7% year-on-year, totaling 74.43 billion kWh, which accounted for 8.03% of the total industrial power generation in the country [42]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies based on various strategic directions: - New technology: Aishuo Co., Ltd., Longi Green Energy - Supply-side improvement: Daqian Energy, Flat Glass Group - Overseas expansion: Hengdian East Magnetic, Sungrow Power Supply, Canadian Solar, Deye Technology - Market-oriented power: Langxin Group - Domestic substitution: Quartz Co., Ltd. - Additional companies to watch include Xinyi Solar, GCL-Poly Energy, Tongwei Co., Ltd., TCL Zhonghuan, New Special Energy, Dier Laser, Foster, Haiyou New Materials, JA Solar, Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, CITIC Bo, Maiwei, Jinglong Technology, Shanghai Ailu, and Guangxin Materials [47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company experienced significant revenue and profit declines in H1 2025, with revenue at 7.737 billion yuan, down 27.66% year-on-year, and net profit at 261 million yuan, down 82.58% year-on-year [1] - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing a temporary oversupply, leading to lower prices and profitability pressures. The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass in H1 2025 was 12.88 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 26.25% year-on-year [2] - A price increase in photovoltaic glass is expected in September 2025, which may help restore profitability as production cuts and reduced inventory improve supply-demand dynamics [2] - The company has advantages that may help it navigate through the cycle, including a current production capacity of 16,400 tons per day and plans for new projects in Indonesia [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 15.347 billion yuan, 18.384 billion yuan, and 23.542 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -17.9%, 19.8%, and 28.1% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.737 billion yuan, a decline of 27.66% year-on-year, and a net profit of 261 million yuan, down 82.58% year-on-year [1] - For Q2 2025, revenue was 3.658 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.41% year-on-year and 10.33% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 155 million yuan, down 79.02% year-on-year [1] Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic glass market is currently experiencing a phase of oversupply, leading to price declines and profitability challenges for companies in the sector [2] - The average price of photovoltaic glass has decreased significantly, impacting revenue and profit margins [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability due to expected price increases in the photovoltaic glass market starting in September 2025 [2] - The company is strategically positioned with a strong market share and plans for international expansion, which may enhance its competitive advantage [3] - Forecasted revenues for 2025-2027 indicate a potential recovery, with significant growth expected in 2026 and 2027 [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 1H25, but there are signs of recovery in Q2, driven by strong overseas demand and expected price increases in the glass market [1][2]. Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue was 7.737 billion yuan, down 28% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 261 million yuan, down 83%, with earnings per share at 0.11 yuan [1]. - Q2 revenue reached 3.658 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year and down 10% quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 155 million yuan, down 79% year-on-year but up 46% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Industry Trends - The decline in revenue was primarily due to falling glass prices, while overseas sales contributed significantly to profits, with overseas revenue accounting for 30.07% of total sales in 1H25 [1]. - The company has reduced production capacity by conducting cold repairs on three glass furnaces, resulting in a current production capacity of 16,400 tons per day, which is a year-on-year decrease [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 was 16.65%, down 9.8 percentage points year-on-year but up 4.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating a recovery trend [1]. Market Outlook - The industry is expected to reach a supply-demand balance in the second half of the year, with price increases anticipated in September, benefiting leading companies [2]. - The glass industry has seen a short-term supply-demand imbalance due to production ramp-up in March and April, but leading companies have begun to reduce production, leading to a downward trend in capacity [2]. - A rapid decrease in glass inventory days is expected to drive up glass prices, with a forecasted increase of 2 yuan per square meter for photovoltaic glass in September [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of 18.51 yuan for A-shares, representing a 12% upside potential based on a P/B ratio of 2/1.9x for 2025/2026 [2]. - The target price for H-shares remains at 13.3 HKD, indicating a 31% upside potential based on a P/B ratio of 1.3/1.2x for 2025/2026 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite current challenges [3]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profitability in the photovoltaic glass segment are under pressure, with a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its strategic deployment to reduce production capacity in response to supply-demand imbalances and declining prices, maintaining a leading cost control capability in the industry [3]. - Despite the short-term challenges, the company is expected to continue expanding its production capacity, ensuring sustained shipment growth and maintaining its leading profitability in the industry [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 77.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.61 billion yuan, down 82.58% [1]. - The photovoltaic glass business saw a revenue decline of 28.10% to 69.45 billion yuan, with a gross margin decrease of 12.39 percentage points to 12.31% [2]. - Other business segments showed mixed results, with engineering glass revenue increasing by 2.13% to 243 million yuan, while home glass revenue decreased by 15.89% to 122 million yuan [2]. Capacity and Cost Control - As of August 2025, the company has reduced its operational capacity to 16,400 tons per day by cold repairing three photovoltaic glass furnaces [3]. - The company’s large furnaces, which have a higher proportion in its existing capacity, are expected to further lower unit costs and enhance product yield [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 647 million yuan, 1.22 billion yuan, and 1.61 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant reduction in previous estimates [3][4]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including revenue and profit projections, indicating a challenging environment ahead but with potential for recovery in the medium term [4][10].

里昂发布研报称，下调福莱特（601865）玻璃(06865)2025至27年的净利润预测55.3%、39.8%及22.6%， 以反映产能扩张步伐放缓及太阳能玻璃售价降低，但目标价由10港元调升至12港元，重申跑赢大市评 级。 福莱特玻璃上半年业绩符合早前公布的盈利预告。该行估计公司上半年单位净利润约为每平方米0.5元 人民币，其越南工厂或因美国需求而出现巨大价格溢价。另外，很多行业公司开始对其熔炉进行冷修和 维护，并推迟产能扩张，这有助行业库存在8月底回落至约24日。该行预计，太阳能玻璃每平方米价格 将上升1.5至2元人民币。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citi has downgraded the net profit forecast for Fuyao Glass (06865) for the years 2025 to 2027 by 55.3%, 39.8%, and 22.6% respectively, due to a slowdown in capacity expansion and a decrease in solar glass prices, while raising the target price from HKD 10 to HKD 12 and maintaining an outperform rating [1] Group 1 - The company's first-half performance aligns with earlier profit forecasts, with estimated unit net profit around RMB 0.5 per square meter [1] - The company's Vietnam plant may experience significant price premiums due to demand from the U.S. market [1] - Many industry players are beginning to conduct cold repairs and maintenance on their furnaces, delaying capacity expansion, which has contributed to a reduction in industry inventory to approximately 24 days by the end of August [1] Group 2 - The company expects the price of solar glass to increase by RMB 1.5 to 2 per square meter [1]