社融增速预计 8.5％，M1 增速保持相对高位 [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 2025 年 11 月社融前瞻 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-12-03 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 021-38003646 nijun@gf.com.cn 分析师： 林虎 SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 SFC CE No. BWK411 021-38003643 gflinhu@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 12/24 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 银行 沪深300 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究： | | | --- | --- | | 银行行业:海外银行业如何化 | 2025-12 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 天眼查资料显示，中国银行股份有限公司，成立于1983年，位于北京市，是一家以从事货币金融服务为 主的企业。企业注册资本29438779.1241万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国银行股份有限公司共 对外投资了476家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息1472条，专利信息5000条， 此外企业还拥有行政许可254个。 来源：市场资讯 国家知识产权局信息显示，中国银行股份有限公司取得一项名为"IT系统的心跳监测方法、系统、设备 及存储介质"的专利，授权公告号CN 116566864 B，申请日期为2023年5月。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent collective removal of 5-year large denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) by major Chinese banks indicates a strategic shift towards more cautious interest margin management, reflecting banks' concerns over future interest rate trends [1][11]. Group 1: Market Changes - Major state-owned banks, including ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB, and others, have removed 5-year large denomination CDs from their mobile banking platforms, with available terms now generally shortened to 3 years or less, and interest rates concentrated between 1.20% and 1.55% [1][2]. - The trend of reducing the supply of long-term fixed-rate deposits deviates from the traditional year-end practice of increasing such offerings to attract depositors [1][11]. - Some banks have indicated that even the 3-year CDs marked as "available" are often sold out, highlighting a significant shift in product availability [8]. Group 2: Historical Context - The development of 5-year large denomination CDs has spanned nearly 40 years, with their initial introduction in 1986 and a significant hiatus from 1997 until their reintroduction in 2015 [4][5]. - The popularity of these CDs surged around 2018 due to changes in the banking landscape, including the relaxation of interest rate caps and increased demand for fixed-term deposits [5]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The current banking environment is characterized by a narrowing net interest margin, which has led to a strategic decision to limit the issuance of long-term high-interest deposits, as they have become a burden rather than a tool for attracting deposits [11]. - As of the third quarter, the net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42%, reflecting ongoing pressure on profitability due to high deposit costs amidst declining loan rates [11]. Group 4: Customer Behavior - The discontinuation of 5-year large denomination CDs is prompting customers to shift their investment strategies from seeking high-interest deposits to diversifying their asset allocations [14][15]. - A survey indicated that 18.5% of residents are inclined to invest more, with non-guaranteed bank wealth management products becoming increasingly popular [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent collective removal of 5-year large denomination time deposits by major banks indicates a strategic shift in banks' approach to interest margin management and a potential reduction in the supply of long-term fixed-rate deposits [1][15]. Group 1: Market Changes - Major state-owned banks have collectively removed 5-year large denomination time deposits from their mobile banking platforms, with current offerings limited to terms of 3 years or less, and interest rates ranging from 1.20% to 1.55% [1][3]. - Some banks have labeled their 3-year large denomination time deposits as "available," but many are already sold out, reflecting a significant departure from the traditional year-end deposit attraction strategies [1][13]. Group 2: Historical Context - The development of 5-year large denomination time deposits spans nearly 40 years, with their initial introduction in 1986 and a significant revival in 2015 after a long hiatus [6][7]. - The peak popularity of these deposits occurred around 2022, where they were highly sought after, often selling out quickly and leading to phenomena like "setting alarms to purchase" [7][9]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The decline in the attractiveness of 5-year large denomination time deposits is attributed to the narrowing net interest margins faced by banks, which have led to a reduction in the issuance of long-term deposits [8][15]. - As of the third quarter, the net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42%, indicating ongoing pressure on banks' profitability due to high deposit costs amidst declining loan rates [15]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Banks are expected to adopt a differentiated supply model for long-term deposits, with only a few banks with strong liability demands likely to continue offering such products [1][15]. - The minimum investment thresholds for large denomination time deposits have changed, with current offerings showing minimal interest rate differences across various investment amounts, indicating a shift in product positioning [16]. Group 5: Investor Behavior - In response to the changing landscape, investors are shifting from a focus on high-interest deposits to a more diversified asset allocation strategy, with a notable increase in interest in non-principal guaranteed financial products [19][20]. - A significant portion of the population is now inclined to explore various investment options, reflecting a broader change in financial attitudes and strategies among retail investors [19].

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in equity financing in 2023, with a total of approximately 1.01 trillion yuan raised in the first 11 months, representing a year-on-year growth of about 310% [1] - The main contributors to this financing are private placements, which accounted for over 80% of the total, with a fivefold increase in fundraising compared to the previous year [2] - The IPO market has also shown growth, with 98 new listings raising 100.36 billion yuan, a 72.9% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by large IPOs from emerging industries [6] Group 1: Equity Financing Overview - Total equity financing in A-shares reached approximately 1.01 trillion yuan, with IPOs contributing 100.36 billion yuan, private placements 846.83 billion yuan, and convertible bonds 59.13 billion yuan [1] - Private placements have become the dominant financing method, with 149 companies completing placements, a 17.32% increase, and total funds raised surging by 5.03 times [2] - The top 10 companies in private placements included four banks and two brokerages, with China Bank raising 165 billion yuan, Postal Savings Bank 130 billion yuan, and others exceeding 100 billion yuan [2] Group 2: IPO and Convertible Bonds - The IPO market has seen 98 new listings, with a 10.1% increase in the number of IPOs and a 72.9% increase in funds raised compared to the previous year [6] - Emerging industries accounted for over 80% of IPOs, indicating a shift towards technology-driven companies [6] - Convertible bonds have also seen growth, with 40 bonds issued, raising a total of 59.1 billion yuan, a 31.8% increase year-on-year, despite a decrease in the number of issuances [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is experiencing a structural adjustment in deposit products, with a notable trend of large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) being phased out, particularly the 5-year term, while some small and medium-sized banks are increasing deposit rates to attract customers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The deposit market has entered a phase of differentiated competition, with large banks reducing long-term high-cost deposits and raising the minimum investment thresholds for large CDs [1][7]. - Major state-owned banks have collectively removed 5-year CDs from their offerings, leaving only shorter-term products available for investors [2][3]. - The exit of 5-year CDs is not sudden; many banks have already stopped offering long-term deposits, indicating a shift in banks' liability management strategies [6][3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - There is a growing phenomenon of interest rate inversion, where shorter-term deposits offer higher rates than longer-term ones, challenging traditional pricing logic [5]. - The average net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased, with the latest data showing a net interest margin of 1.42%, down 11 basis points year-on-year [16][17]. - Some small and medium-sized banks are increasing deposit rates to enhance their competitiveness in attracting deposits, with examples showing rates as high as 1.9% for certain terms [15][16]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Large banks are implementing differentiated and tiered management for large CDs, with some products requiring a minimum investment of 1 million yuan, while still offering lower-threshold options [7][13]. - The adjustments reflect a broader industry trend where banks are using traditional deposit products as tools for customer relationship management, especially in a declining interest rate environment [14]. - The ongoing pressure to reduce funding costs will likely lead banks to continue lowering deposit rates, although the pace of such reductions may slow as rates approach their lower limits [17][16].

Core Viewpoint - The five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) have been collectively removed from the offerings of major state-owned banks, leaving only three-year products available, reflecting ongoing pressure on the banking industry's net interest margins [2][11]. Group 1: Product Availability - Major state-owned banks, including Industrial and Agricultural Banks, have removed five-year large-denomination CDs from their online offerings, with only three-year and shorter-term products remaining [2][11]. - The three-year large-denomination CDs are now offered at a reduced interest rate of approximately 1.55%, with varying minimum deposit thresholds of 200,000, 1,000,000, and 5,000,000 yuan [3][7]. - Agricultural Bank's app shows only three-year products available, with interest rates fixed at 1.55% for both 500,000 and 20,000 yuan minimum deposits [7]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The interest rate for three-year large-denomination CDs has decreased from 2.15% to 1.55% over the past year, a decline of 60 basis points [11]. - Other state-owned banks, such as Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank, have also removed five-year large-denomination CDs, with interest rates for three-year and shorter products aligning with the rates of other major banks [11]. Group 3: Market Context - The removal of long-term large-denomination CDs is part of a broader trend in the banking industry, driven by ongoing adjustments in response to a low net interest margin environment [14][15]. - As of the end of Q3, the net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42%, a decrease of 11 basis points year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on profitability [15]. - Analysts suggest that banks are adjusting their product offerings to manage costs and maintain net interest margins, reflecting a shift in strategy towards shorter-term deposits and higher entry thresholds for large-denomination CDs [15][16]. Group 4: Clarification on Deposit Products - The discontinuation of five-year large-denomination CDs has led to confusion among some depositors, who mistakenly believe that all five-year deposit options have been eliminated; however, regular five-year fixed deposits remain available [12][13]. - Regular five-year fixed deposits have a much lower minimum deposit requirement of 50 yuan and offer a stable interest rate of 1.30%, providing an alternative for customers with lower capital [13].

11月27日，中国银行发布公告称，当日召开2025年第四次临时股东大会，会议由董事长葛海蛟主持，3825名股东及代理人出席，持有表决权股份总数达 2678.95亿股，占总股本的83.14%。此次股东大会核心议题为审议2025年中期利润分配方案，最终该方案以99.996829%的高同意票数获得通过。 | 1.出席会议的股东和代理人人数(包括现场出席及通过 网络投票出席) | 3.825 | | --- | --- | | 其中:A股股东人数 | 3, 824 | | H 股股东人数 | 1 | | 2. 出席会议的股东所持有表决权的股份总数(股) | 267. 894. 756. 055 | | 其中:A 股股东持有股份总数 | 225, 356, 959, 864 | | H 股股东持有股份总数 | 42,537,796,191 | | 3. 出席会议的股东所持有表决权股份数占本行有表决权 股份总数的比例(%) | 83. 142283 | | 其中:A股股东持股占股份总数的比例(%) | 69. 940496 | | H 股股东持股占股份总数的比例(%) | 13. 201787 | 根据公告披露的分配方案 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest issuance of 3-year large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has seen the minimum deposit requirement raised to 1 million yuan, with an interest rate of 1.55%, which is currently sold out [1][5]. Group 1: Large-Denomination CDs - The current 3-year large-denomination CDs from ICBC have a minimum deposit of 1 million yuan and an interest rate of 1.55% [1][2]. - Previously, ICBC offered a 3-year large-denomination CD with a minimum deposit of 200,000 yuan, also at an interest rate of 1.55% [1][2]. - Other banks, such as China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China, also offer 3-year large-denomination CDs with a minimum deposit of 200,000 yuan at the same interest rate of 1.55% [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The increase in the minimum deposit requirement for large-denomination CDs without a corresponding increase in interest rates reflects banks' proactive liability management strategies in a low-interest-rate environment [5][6]. - By raising the minimum deposit amount, banks are effectively tightening the supply of large-denomination CDs, aiming to optimize their liability structure and reduce reliance on high-cost deposits [5]. - The main advantages of large-denomination CDs over regular deposits include higher liquidity and flexibility, such as transfer and pledge capabilities, making them suitable for large depositors with short-term funding needs [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of China is actively promoting a "Smart Card, Safe Payment" educational campaign to enhance consumer awareness and protect against financial fraud, thereby contributing to a secure and healthy financial environment [1][2][16] Group 1: Educational Initiatives - The campaign employs a combination of online and offline methods to educate consumers on the proper use of financial tools and products, aiming to prevent fraud and illegal financial activities [1][2] - Original educational materials, including comics, are created to explain credit card usage and common scams, making financial knowledge accessible and engaging for consumers [2][4] - The Bank of China collaborates with local authorities to conduct training sessions and workshops, enhancing public understanding of financial risks and safety measures [4][5] Group 2: Targeted Outreach - Specific initiatives are designed for various demographics, including the elderly and youth, to address their unique financial knowledge gaps and promote safe financial practices [7][9] - The Bank of China organizes events in schools and community centers to teach financial literacy, focusing on preventing scams that target younger audiences [9][12] - The bank extends its outreach to rural areas, ensuring that financial education reaches underserved communities [12] Group 3: Cross-Industry Collaboration - The Bank of China partners with other sectors, such as public safety and education, to create comprehensive financial safety campaigns that resonate with the public [5][15] - Events like sports activities and cultural festivals are utilized to engage the community and disseminate financial safety information in a relatable manner [14][15] Group 4: Continuous Improvement - The Bank of China plans to maintain its commitment to financial education by continuously innovating its outreach methods and expanding its coverage to meet consumer needs [16]