销售与管理视频号开通啦 欢迎关注并留下您睿智犀利的评论吧 ----------------------------------------- - - 作者： 智先生 来源：智先生（ID：zhixs10） 要说2024年有什么天坑行业排行的话，餐饮业估计能名列前茅。 很多地区的"排队王"都陷入了摆烂的局面，客流量肉眼可见变得稀疏起来，预订率下降，导致营业额也大幅缩水。 有餐饮人在网上自嘲， "开店时身上有二十多万，关店时能去到四十多万，可惜是负债"。 数据是最直观的。 哪怕它们纾尊降贵，推出298、398的"平民套餐"，也依然挡不住大规模关停潮来袭，因为老百姓对米其林评价已经祛魅。 当行业环境不济时，大部分企业首先会考虑加入红海战场，开卷价格大战，虽然"以价换量"不是什么新鲜把戏了，但胜在有用。 一部分餐饮头部借此实现了逆增长，比如像海底捞，萨莉亚、瑞幸咖啡、百胜中国等佼佼者。 不过仔细翻看各上市公司的财报，可以发现一点，能实现同比增长的寥寥无几， 与其说逆增长，不如说维持营收平衡更贴切 。 根据国家统计局数据，今年1-8月份，餐饮收入34998亿元，同比增长6.6%，从大盘来看，还算可以，最起码像房地产、家装 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.191 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.27%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, down 5.35% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company is focused on a strategy of "strong brand in catering, large-scale food production," aiming to build a comprehensive industry structure of "large catering, large food, and large brands" [6]. - The long-term goal is to create a century-old famous brand and build an internationally renowned food group, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 being 554 million, 645 million, and 745 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 16, 14, and 12 times [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 4.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.86%, and a net profit of 448 million yuan, down 8.87% year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company’s gross margin was 39.49%, a decrease of 2.84 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 18.33%, down 1.36 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company’s operating costs increased by 7.31% year-on-year, which was higher than the revenue growth rate, leading to pressure on profit margins [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 19.20 CNY, reflecting an 11% increase from the previous target of 17.27 CNY [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a focus on channel expansion and the progress of its restaurant business. The sales figures for mooncake business were in line with expectations, and overall sales remained flat year-on-year [3][4]. - The report highlights a downward adjustment in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 due to weak overall demand in the restaurant industry, with projected EPS of 0.90 CNY (-13%), 1.01 CNY (-11%), and 1.11 CNY (-9%) respectively [4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.1 billion CNY in 2024 Q1-3, a 6% increase year-on-year, while gross profit decreased by 4% to 1.36 billion CNY [4][5]. Financial Summary - For 2024 Q3, the company reported a revenue of 2.19 billion CNY, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, with mooncake, frozen food, and restaurant revenues at 1.41 billion CNY, 230 million CNY, and 370 million CNY respectively [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 39.49%, down 2.84 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit of 390 million CNY, a decrease of 5.3% [4][5]. - The financial outlook includes projected revenues of 5.24 billion CNY for 2024, 5.96 billion CNY for 2025, and 6.70 billion CNY for 2026, with corresponding net profits of 511 million CNY, 575 million CNY, and 633 million CNY [5][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.9 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 5.4% to 3.90 billion yuan [5] - The revenue growth was primarily driven by a 0.1% increase in mooncake sales to 14.1 billion yuan and a 17.3% increase in restaurant revenue to 3.7 billion yuan [5] - The company has shown resilience despite a slight decline in performance, with a year-to-date revenue of 41.0 billion yuan, up 5.9%, and a net profit of 4.5 billion yuan, down 8.9% [5] - The gross margin for Q3 was 39.5%, down 2.8 percentage points, attributed to pricing pressures and higher growth in lower-margin restaurant business [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative decline compared to the market index, with a performance drop of -36.69% from October 2023 to January 2024 [2] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.9 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.90 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.4% year-on-year [5] - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 41.0 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.5 billion yuan, indicating a decline of 8.9% [5] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 39.5%, down from the previous year, due to various operational challenges [5] Business Segments - The mooncake business remained stable with a revenue of 14.1 billion yuan, while the frozen food segment faced challenges with a 4.8% decline [6] - The restaurant segment showed a strong growth of 17.3%, indicating a positive trend in this area [6] Channel and Regional Development - The company’s distribution channels are expanding, with a notable increase in the proportion of business outside Guangdong province [7] - The number of distributors and agents increased to 1,110, with significant growth in regions outside Guangdong [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 51.97 billion yuan, 57.90 billion yuan, and 63.87 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.17 billion yuan, 6.13 billion yuan, and 6.94 billion yuan [8] - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 is projected to be between 18-22 times, suggesting a reasonable value range of 16.4 to 20.0 yuan per share [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a steady conclusion to the mooncake peak season while continuing to expand into markets outside its home province [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.9% to 450 million yuan [2][6] - The company’s gross margin continued to decline, with a gross margin of 33.1% for the first three quarters, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year [2][6] - The company’s revenue from mooncake, frozen food, other products, and catering businesses for the first three quarters were 1.44 billion, 770 million, 730 million, and 1.09 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +0.2%, -1.8%, +13.9%, and +15.5% [6] Market Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its revenue from markets outside its home province, achieving a growth rate of 3.5%, which is higher than the growth rate of the domestic market [6] Cost Control - The company demonstrated good cost control capabilities, with selling expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio for Q3 being 7.3%, 6.7%, and 1.2%, respectively, showing year-on-year decreases of 0.9 percentage points, 0.2 percentage points, and 0.4 percentage points [6] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.03 billion, 5.58 billion, and 6.21 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.6%, 11.0%, and 11.3% respectively [6][7] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is expected to be 520 million, 610 million, and 700 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.1%, 15.8%, and 15.1% respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was under pressure, with a revenue of 4.1 billion yuan (up 5.9% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 448 million yuan (down 8.9% year-on-year). Q3 revenue was 2.19 billion yuan (up 2.3% year-on-year) and net profit was 390 million yuan (down 5.3% year-on-year). Due to weak demand and intensified competition, the forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 510 million, 610 million, and 700 million yuan respectively [1][2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve stable growth driven by both food and restaurant segments, maintaining the "Outperform" rating [1]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2024, the food segment saw a revenue decline of 0.5%, with mooncake and frozen food revenues growing by 0.1% and declining by 4.8% respectively. The mooncake segment performed relatively well, with total sales of 13.74 million boxes (up 1.5% year-on-year) [2]. - The restaurant segment showed strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue growth of 17.3%, benefiting from steady store expansion. As of October 30, the company operated 50 direct restaurant outlets in key cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [2]. Market Expansion - The food manufacturing business's direct sales and distribution revenues grew by 5.3% and declined by 3.5% respectively in Q3 2024. Revenue from the Guangdong province increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province decreased by 2.3% [3]. - The company continues to focus on the Guangdong market while actively expanding into markets outside the province, with expectations for steady revenue growth in 2024 [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin in Q3 2024 was 39.5% (down 2.8 percentage points year-on-year), primarily due to increased promotional efforts. The net profit margin was 18.3% (down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year). Future improvements in gross margin are anticipated as restaurant operations stabilize and promotional efforts normalize [4]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 is projected to be relatively stable, with a net profit margin forecasted at 9.9% for 2024, improving to 10.9% and 11.7% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [5]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.17 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 511 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 7.2% year-on-year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.90 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.06 yuan in 2025 and 1.23 yuan in 2026 [5]. Stock Performance - The current stock price is 16.13 yuan, with a market capitalization of 9.174 billion yuan. The stock has seen a 3-month turnover rate of 32.46% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guangzhou Restaurant (603043 SH) [3] Core Views - Guangzhou Restaurant's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by weak consumer demand, particularly in the mooncake segment, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth [1][2] - The company's profitability is under short-term pressure due to changes in product mix and lower gross margins [3] - The report expects a potential recovery in mooncake sales in 2025 due to the coincidence of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Guangzhou Restaurant achieved revenue of RMB 2 19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2 3%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 390 million, down 5 3% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue reached RMB 4 1 billion, up 5 9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 450 million, down 8 9% year-on-year [1] Business Segment Analysis - Mooncake segment: Q3 revenue of RMB 1 409 billion, up only 0 1% year-on-year, affected by weak consumer demand and delayed distributor stocking [2] - Frozen food segment: Q3 revenue of RMB 232 million, down 4 8% year-on-year [2] - Catering segment: Q3 revenue of RMB 367 million, up 17 3% year-on-year, driven by expansion of directly operated stores [2] - Other products: Q3 revenue of RMB 157 million, up 0 6% year-on-year [2] Regional Performance - Guangdong Province: Q3 revenue of RMB 1 297 billion, up 0 7% year-on-year [2] - Outside Guangdong Province: Q3 revenue of RMB 480 million, down 2 3% year-on-year [2] - Overseas: Q3 revenue of RMB 22 million, down 24 8% year-on-year [2] Profitability Analysis - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 39 49%, down 2 84 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to changes in product mix [3] - Net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 18 33%, down 1 36 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Sales expense ratio for Q3 2024 was 7 28%, down 0 87 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting improved cost control [3] Valuation and Forecast - The report revised down the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to RMB 509 million, RMB 584 million, and RMB 664 million respectively, representing reductions of 8%, 7%, and 5% [3] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 18x, 16x, and 14x respectively [3] - The report suggests focusing on mooncake sales performance during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and the company's expansion outside Guangdong Province in the medium to long term [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.103 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.86%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.87% to 448 million yuan [1]. - The "Little Year" mooncake business showed resilience, with a 1.5% increase in sales volume compared to the previous year, despite the current year being a traditional "Little Year" for the mooncake industry [1]. - The company is experiencing steady growth in its restaurant business, benefiting from ongoing store expansions [1]. - Direct sales in the food manufacturing segment are gaining traction, with a year-on-year increase of 4.48% in direct sales revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 [1]. - The overall gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 33.14%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 10.92%, down 1.76 percentage points [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenues of 29.40 billion yuan from food manufacturing, 10.89 billion yuan from restaurant services, and 0.42 billion yuan from other sales, with respective year-on-year growth rates of +2.70%, +15.51%, and -3.47% [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 5.11 billion yuan, 5.84 billion yuan, and 6.83 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 16, and 13 times [1][2]. Business Segments - The food manufacturing business generated 14.41 billion yuan from mooncake products, 7.72 billion yuan from frozen foods, and 7.27 billion yuan from other products in Q1-Q3 2024, with mooncake revenue showing a slight increase of 0.24% year-on-year [1]. - The restaurant service segment saw a significant year-on-year growth of 15.51%, indicating strong demand and effective channel expansion [1]. Market Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its distribution network, with a net increase of 29 distributors in provinces outside Guangdong, indicating initial success in its provincial expansion strategy [1]. - The direct sales channel is showing a positive trend, with a year-on-year growth of 5.30% in Q3 2024, while the distribution channel experienced a decline of 3.53% [1]. Profitability Metrics - The report highlights a slight decline in profitability metrics, with the overall gross margin decreasing to 33.14% and net profit margin to 10.92% for Q1-Q3 2024 [1]. - The company has managed to reduce its sales, management, and research expenses as a percentage of revenue, reflecting improved operational efficiency [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][14]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight increase in revenue in the third quarter, with a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to the parent company. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.191 billion yuan (+2.27%) and a net profit of 390 million yuan (-5.35%) [2][7]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.103 billion yuan (+5.86%) and a net profit of 448 million yuan (-8.87%), indicating stable revenue growth but pressure on profit margins due to consumer price sensitivity [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company’s revenue was 2.191 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.27% increase, while the net profit was 390 million yuan, down 5.35% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 384 million yuan, a decrease of 4.45% [2][7]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.103 billion yuan, up 5.86%, and a net profit of 448 million yuan, down 8.87% [2][7]. Business Segments - The mooncake business remained stable, generating revenue of 1.441 billion yuan (+0.24%) in the first three quarters, with an estimated sales volume increase of 1.5%. The frozen food segment saw revenue decline to 772 million yuan (-1.84%) due to weak demand [3][4]. - Other food products, including rice dumplings and prepared dishes, generated 730 million yuan in revenue, marking a growth of 13.85%. Overall, the food business revenue was 2.940 billion yuan (+2.70%) [3][4]. Margin and Cost Control - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 33.1%, down 3.3 percentage points, primarily due to the current consumer price sensitivity and changes in sales channels. The period expense ratio was 17.94%, a decrease of 1.01 percentage points, indicating effective cost control [3][10]. Market Strategy - The company is actively expanding its membership-based supermarkets and various online channels to counteract pressure from traditional retail channels. The restaurant segment saw a net increase of six direct-operated restaurants in the first half of the year, with plans for further expansion [4][11]. - The company is expected to enhance its market-driven incentive measures in response to ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms, aiming to strengthen its brand in a competitive market [4][11].

证券代码：603043 证券简称：广州酒家 公告编号：2024-049 广州酒家集团股份有限公司 2024 年前三季度经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 区域 | 2024 年 1-9 月 | 2023 年 1-9 月 | 较上期变动(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 广东省内 | 214, 436. 93 | 209, 210. 49 | 2. 50 | | 境内广东省外 | 74, 221. 86 | 71, 694. 89 | 3.52 | | 境外 | 5, 346. 85 | 5, 359. 25 | -0. 23 | | 合计 | 294.005.64 | 286, 264. 63 | 2.70 | 二、2024年前三季度食品制造业务经销商与代理商变动情况 单位：户 | 区域 | 期初数量 | 增加数量 | 減少数量 | 期末数量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 广东省内 | 574 | 84 | 83 | 57 ...